The hottest Interest Rates Substack posts right now

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The Definitive Guide to Bonds

Market Sentiment • 432 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investments Bonds Portfolios Interest Rates ETFs
  1. Leverage in bond investments can work well but also lead to significant losses if market conditions change rapidly.
  2. Bond prices are impacted by interest rate movements, where older bonds may lose value with rate hikes.
  3. The choice between individual bonds and bond ETFs depends on factors like diversification needs, fees, and level of investment sophistication.

A política monetária nos EUA se encontra em território restritivo?

O Observador de Corcyra • 412 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic Analysis Macroeconomics
  1. The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
  2. There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
  3. Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.

The Japanese Maginot Line

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 13 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Bank Interest Rates Government debt Quantitative Easing
  1. The Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy caused chaos in FX and stock markets. The volatility in bond markets led to unscheduled bond-buying operations.
  2. Yield Curve Control aims to keep bond yields in a tight range to suppress yields and maintain accommodative monetary policy. This strategy becomes crucial in Japan with high government debt.
  3. The BoJ is strategically intervening in bond rates, pushing them back down whenever they approach a certain threshold. They aim to maintain confusion and market control.

Why the market has really rallied following the Fed decision?

Global Markets Investor • 79 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Markets Federal Reserve Interest Rates Inflation
  1. The market rallied significantly after the Federal Reserve made unexpected decisions, like not pushing back against expected interest rate cuts and adjusting interest rate forecasts significantly.
  2. Investors were surprised by the Fed's dovish shift towards easing and the embrace of soft landing strategies, which resulted in market excitement and continued rallies in stocks and bonds.
  3. While the market is currently optimistic due to the Fed's stance, there are warnings about potential overbought conditions and the need to watch out for sharp corrections.

Why 3 US banks collapsed in 1 week: Economist Michael Hudson explains

Geopolitical Economy Report • 358 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Derivatives Interest Rates
  1. Economist Michael Hudson discussed the collapse of US banks, noting similarities to the 2008 financial crisis and the reliance on government bailouts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's handling of interest rates and bailouts in response to bank collapses indicates systemic issues in the financial sector.
  3. Derivatives, specifically highly leveraged bets, are looming as a significant risk for the banking sector and could trigger the next big crash.

Is the US economy heading for a soft landing? Part 1/2

Global Markets Investor • 59 implied HN points • 17 Dec 23
💰 Finance Economic Forecasting Banking Sector Consumer spending Interest Rates
  1. Soft landing in the US economy refers to a scenario where interest rates increase without causing a recession. Achieving a soft landing is challenging due to the unpredictable effects of rising rates.
  2. Current economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown, with data like US bank lending growth declining and bankruptcy filings increasing. These factors could lead to significant economic problems if extended.
  3. Consumer spending in the US may face limitations, as issues like high credit card debt and rising delinquencies pose risks. The Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates could impact future economic outcomes.

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity in German Residential Real Estate Stocks

Modern Value Investing • 294 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Stocks Market Analysis Interest Rates
  1. German residential real estate stocks offer 200% upside based on their NAV
  2. Potential for German residential real estate stocks to re-establish dividends at 3-4%, translating to a 200% near term upside
  3. Investing in German residential real estate offers a long-term opportunity with potential returns of 5-6x over 10 years

No, I don't think the Fed drives future yields

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Quantitative Easing Market Trends
  1. Forward interest rates are mainly driven by changing economic productivity and sentiment, with the Fed playing a secondary role.
  2. Market sentiment about real future economic activity has a significant impact on interest rates.
  3. Most of the changes in long-term bond yields since 1989 have occurred during Federal Open Market Committee meetings.

Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Housing Market Economic Analysis
  1. Powell's approach to monetary policy is based on conventional models, which may not fully address current economic issues.
  2. There is a concern that inflation is settling above the 2% target due to trends in goods and services.
  3. Housing supply issues contribute to 'inflation' and can be misleading when analyzing monetary policy impacts.

Path-Breaking Research Explains the Low U.S. Consumer Gallup Poll Readings

The People's Economist with Anthony Chan • 19 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Inflation Interest Rates
  1. Consumers in the U.S. are feeling pessimistic despite strong economic indicators like GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and declining Misery Index, mainly due to concerns about inflation viewed as a severe economic hardship.
  2. Recent data suggests that Americans usually lag in incorporating the effects of inflation, with sentiment influenced by inflation readings observed 6 to 12 months prior, leading to a risk-averse approach among consumers.
  3. Consumer dissatisfaction might also stem from the rising prices of dining out compared to cooking at home, affecting restaurant spending and consumer sentiment.

Portfolio Update and Performance Review

Modern Value Investing • 117 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investing Portfolio Performance Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Portfolio is up 150% YTD, driven by investments in Meta Platforms and highly shorted stocks like Upstart and Opendoor.
  2. Author is getting more cautious due to rising inflation and interest rates, and has diversified investments.
  3. Author has built a 7% position in long-term treasuries as a partial hedge against market turmoil.

More on the Fed and Long-Term Interest Rates

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates Federal Reserve Market Analysis
  1. The Fed's impact on interest rates may not be as significant as perceived, with most rate changes occurring outside of Fed meetings.
  2. Changes in long-term interest rates are likely not correlated with new information from Fed meetings.
  3. Interest rate changes during Fed meetings appear independent of changes outside of meetings, indicating that market expectations are already adjusted before meetings.

The Credit Card Debt Bomb is Ticking

The Sunday Morning Post • 78 implied HN points • 17 Sep 23
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates
  1. Total credit card debt in the US surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history, with high interest rates reaching an average of 20.68% in May 2023.
  2. Credit card delinquencies hit an 11-year high in the second quarter of 2023, with 2.77% of all credit card payments being missed.
  3. Delinquency rates for home mortgages and commercial loans are remarkably low, contrasting sharply with the concerning trend of rising credit card debt and delinquencies.

Too High for Too Long?

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Interest Rates Real Estate Economic outlook
  1. Inflation measures are flawed, leading to skepticism about high interest rates, causing uncertainty for the US economy.
  2. The current rate hike cycle is more aggressive than previous cycles, potentially risking a recession in 2024.
  3. Challenges in real estate, student loan debts, and credit card debts, along with aggressive hiring, may indicate shaky ground for the US economy.

Lending Protocol Taxonomy, part 2: Interest Rates

David’s Substack • 39 implied HN points • 16 Nov 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates Pricing Auctions
  1. Interest rates in lending protocols are usually quoted as annualized percentage rate (APR) or yield (APY).
  2. Different pricing mechanisms in lending protocols include orderbook pricing, utilization-based pricing, auctions, and manual/governance-led pricing.
  3. Protocols like Ajna and Tazz introduce innovative ways to set interest rates without relying on oracles, enabling unique functionalities.

Why are homebuilder rate buydowns effective?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Market prices aren't changing due to temporary factors, leading builders to use rate buydowns instead.
  2. Builders are using rate buydowns to close the gap between mortgage rates and other interest rates in the current market.
  3. The unique market conditions make rate buydowns a strategic tool for builders, influencing the mortgage market stability.

Forward Guidance

The Last Bear Standing • 133 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Dot Plot is the Fed's way of showing where they think interest rates will go in the future.
  2. Yield Curve Control is when central banks adjust short-term and long-term rates to tackle inflation and maintain financial stability.
  3. The Fed's Dilemma involves trying to raise rates to tackle inflation while avoiding destabilizing long-duration assets and maintaining financial stability.

The Forgotten Case Against Milton Friedman

Informer • 98 implied HN points • 14 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Policy Inflation Progressives Interest Rates
  1. Milton Friedman's ideas changed economics by challenging the Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
  2. James Tobin provided an alternative theory of inflation focusing on demand shifts between sectors.
  3. Progressives didn't fully embrace Tobin's theory, leading to disagreements on tackling inflation and interest rates.

The FED has left the US Banking System Destabilized after Unprecedented Interest Rate Cycle

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Economy Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
  1. US banks are facing increased risks of deposit outflows due to systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system.
  2. Unattractive interest rates on deposits compared to treasuries have left US banks trapped without sacrificing profitability.
  3. The FED must act quickly by reducing interest rates to stabilize the banking system and prevent further harm to the economy.

Japan is the playbook, not the exception

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Central Banks Interest Rates
  1. Japan manages extremely high debt levels through financial repression techniques, like central banks purchasing government debt and influencing bond yields.
  2. The duration mismatch between government assets and liabilities incentivizes keeping interest rates low for financial stability.
  3. Artificially low long-term bond yields in Japan lead to wealth redistribution towards older, wealthier households, potentially causing social tension.

The Fed Sees a Softer, Higher Landing

Apricitas Economics • 31 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
💰 Finance Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed is projecting a softer landing without the need for a recession to control inflation.
  2. There is less uncertainty in FOMC forecasts, and they anticipate higher GDP growth and slightly higher inflation.
  3. There are disagreements within the FOMC on the duration and extent of keeping interest rates high, with some seeing rates potentially staying permanently higher.

The Fed's $300B Emergency Response

Apricitas Economics • 57 implied HN points • 18 Mar 23
💰 Finance Emergency Response Banking System Financial Stability Market conditions Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve lent over $300B in emergency funds to American banks to stabilize the financial system.
  2. Most of the emergency lending was short-term, with a majority of the funds coming from the discount window.
  3. Reforms to the discount window have helped reduce stigma around borrowing from the Fed during financial crises.