The hottest Interest Rates Substack posts right now

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Interest Rate Risks are Collapsing Banks

The Informationist • 1650 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals

"Absolute Train Wreck": US Adds $481 Billion In Debt In 3 Months

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The government has sharply increased borrowing, adding hundreds of billions in a few months and sustaining a new norm of over $2 trillion per year; at that pace the debt could grow by about $10 trillion every four years.
  2. Annual interest payments have topped $1 trillion and are set to rise, driven by large amounts of notes (2–10 year maturities) and a shorter average debt maturity that forces more frequent rollovers.
  3. This combination of rising debt and interest costs looks fiscally unsustainable and could force the Fed or Treasury into interventions that would weaken confidence and strain markets.

Delayed Pain

Points And Figures • 692 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Interest Rates
  1. Tariffs might not be causing the inflation that some experts predicted. In fact, they can act like a tax, which might actually lower prices instead of raising them.
  2. The economy reacts slowly to changes like interest rate adjustments or tariffs. People and businesses need time to adapt and this can affect their sales and planning.
  3. Watching how middle-class consumers spend their money can give clues about the economy's health. If they're cutting back on luxury items, it could signal trouble ahead.
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FOMC Day

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Markets may not have much action until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) makes its announcement. Things could get interesting once they speak.
  2. Tariffs and other economic policies under the current administration seem to be showing positive results, with inflation and gas prices down. Many initial concerns have not materialized.
  3. There are questions about whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady. Some believe that lowering them could be beneficial for the economy and taxpayers.

Michael Hudson: Why the US banking system is breaking up

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1275 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The US banking system is facing a significant crisis due to the consequences of past actions, like the 2009 bank bailout and the quantitative easing measures that followed.
  2. Rising interest rates are causing bond prices to fall, which is putting pressure on banks as their assets decrease in value against deposit liabilities.
  3. The current banking crisis is reminiscent of past financial failures, like the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, and is exacerbated by factors like the cryptocurrency wave and derivatives trading.

Doing My Part to Raise R*

The Overshoot • 1120 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
💼 Business Interest Rates
  1. Interest rates have been low due to various social challenges.
  2. Decrease in population growth leads to lower interest rates.
  3. Encouraging fathers to take parental leave can benefit both men and women in the workplace.

Data Update 3 for 2024: A Rule-breaking Year for Interest Rates

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Interest rates in 2023 showed little change, challenging the idea that the Fed is solely responsible for their movements. It's more about market dynamics and inflation.
  2. An inverted yield curve has traditionally been seen as a warning sign for recessions, but recent events in 2023 suggest it isn't always accurate. The economy remained stable despite the inversion.
  3. Looking forward, inflation will play a key role in determining interest rates in 2024. If inflation continues to drop, long-term rates might go down too.

The Bank of Japan July Surprise

The Informationist • 1100 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of Japan recently made an announcement that caused the USD and Japanese bond yields to shift.
  2. The implications of the Bank of Japan's actions have affected US Treasuries and could lead to the US Treasury issuing more debt.
  3. Investors are advised to strategically manage portfolios due to potential market shifts and economic uncertainties.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Mortgage delinquencies rose in the fourth quarter of 2025 to a 4.26% rate, up about 27 basis points from the prior quarter and roughly 28 basis points year‑over‑year, while foreclosure starts held at 0.20%.
  2. Delinquencies increased across conventional, FHA, and VA loans, with FHA showing the biggest deterioration — about 11.52% delinquent and a notable jump in 90+ day delinquencies and foreclosure inventory.
  3. The rise appears linked to the expiration of pandemic-era FHA relief and uneven labor market conditions, and newer loan cohorts (2022–23) are struggling more than 2020–21 vintages, though improving FHA originations and moderating rates could help ease stress.

GDP: Six Years of Zero Growth

Japan Economy Watch • 199 implied HN points • 16 May 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Japanese GDP has experienced zero growth in the past six years, with household consumption and business investment showing no positive change.
  2. Government spending hikes have prevented a worse decline in GDP, increasing by 8% from 2018.
  3. Despite a significant depreciation of the yen, exports have only increased by 4% over six years, indicating modest growth.

The Monetary Event Horizon

The Dollar Endgame • 938 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. national debt is skyrocketing due to increased government spending, tax cuts, and economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a staggering $32.47 trillion in debt and a rapid increase of over $1 trillion in just 34 days.
  2. As the U.S. debt continues to grow, the country is possibly entering a debt spiral where borrowing becomes necessary to fulfill existing financial obligations, potentially leading to an annual interest payment of $1.6 trillion at a 5% rate and putting the nation at risk of financial instability.
  3. Rising interest rates and debt levels could push the U.S. Treasury towards insolvency, with potential consequences including inflation and the need for severe fiscal austerity measures to mitigate the crisis, a situation further complicated by complex economic feedback loops.

The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?

The Overshoot • 452 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. Economy is showing strong growth and may not need rate cuts despite controlled inflation.
  2. Traders anticipate interest rates to decrease, but data suggests a period of faster growth akin to past economic booms.
  3. Initial forecasts of a U.S. recession were proven wrong, with the economy growing over 3% and showing resilience against negative predictions.

Changing Winds

Market Sentiment • 805 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Top-down investing looks at big-picture factors like interest rates and GDP, while bottom-up focuses on individual company fundamentals.
  2. Combining both top-down and bottom-up approaches can lead to better investment decisions, as seen from experiences like the 2008 crash and LTCM failure.
  3. In a changing market with high inflation and rising interest rates, the best strategy is to balance top-down understanding with bottom-up analysis for successful investing.

The BoJ is Trapped

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of Japan raised its rates for the first time in years, adjusting its primary goal for short-term interest rates and marking its first rate hike since 2007.
  2. The Bank of Japan previously used Negative Interest Rate Policy to stimulate borrowing and lending to revitalize Japan's sluggish economy.
  3. The Bank of Japan has ceased certain policies but will continue to print money, maintain low rates, and combat potential inflation, as seen through their recent monetary announcements.

SCARCE TO ABUNDANT RESERVES

The MacroTourist • 432 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. In 2008, the Federal Reserve had a significant change with Congress allowing them to pay interest on reserves.
  2. This change led to a shift from a monetary system of scarce reserves to abundant reserves.
  3. It's important to consider this shift when analyzing the Federal Reserve and the yield curve for forecasting.

BOJ Finally Pulls the Trigger on Rate Policy, But It’s a Low-Caliber Gun

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 20 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. BOJ's interest rate policy tweak is more about changing the mechanism to keep rates low, gradually raising overnight rates from negative to low positive percentages over time.
  2. Ending Yield Curve Control means BOJ stops directly controlling long-term rates but still aims to keep them low by continuing to buy the same amount of long-term bonds.
  3. BOJ remains focused on low inflation and plans to raise interest rates if it rises too high, but for now, it sees current inflation as temporary due to global factors.

Michael Hudson: Why the US bank crisis is not over

Geopolitical Economy Report • 717 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and banks can hold onto securities without marking down their assets, showing the decline only during a run on the bank.
  2. Depositors withdrew money as banks acted greedily, paying low deposit rates while making high profits, causing a shift towards more fair market returns elsewhere.
  3. The US bank crisis involves a mix of deregulatory corruption, political influence, and economic imbalance in the face of financial claims surpassing economic ability to pay.

Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The announcement that the GSEs would buy $200 billion of MBS sharply tightened MBS/Treasury spreads and pushed current-coupon MBS yields down, even producing a briefly negative option-adjusted spread.
  2. The $200 billion figure likely matches the GSEs' room under the Treasury agreement, so they will probably fund purchases by issuing debt and reallocating Treasury holdings and hedge with longer-dated instruments; because spreads are so tight, debt‑financed MBS could have low or negative risk‑adjusted returns, so investors should plan an exit strategy.
  3. Model estimates of the real neutral fed funds rate imply a nominal neutral range roughly in the low to mid 3% area depending on inflation expectations, so the Fed’s current 3.5%–3.75% target is around or slightly above neutral.

Would Yen Intervention Succeed?

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 15 Apr 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The effectiveness of yen intervention by the Ministry of Finance is uncertain, based on past attempts and the influence of interest rate gaps.
  2. The weakened yen might not necessarily be due to unwarranted speculation, but rather a reflection of long-term weakening of the Japanese economy.
  3. The Bank of Japan's actions, like increasing interest rates, could have a more significant impact on the yen's value than direct interventions by the Ministry of Finance.

Bank of England holds rates, but...

Off to Lunch • 334 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at 5.25%, despite a split vote among committee members.
  2. Inflation is still high in the UK at 4%, above the Bank's 2% target, but recent data suggests a slowdown in the economy.
  3. The Bank's monetary policy report hints at inflation potentially dropping to 2% in the near future, but interest rates may not be cut until sustained evidence is seen.

Thoughts on Inflation

America in Crisis • 139 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The reduced-price model shows how cycles in prices correspond to inflation, especially during wartime when inflation tends to be higher due to deficit spending.
  2. The quantity theory of money explains the relationship between economic activity, money supply, and inflation, showcasing the importance of monetary factors in historical economic events.
  3. Analyzing the current inflation outlook using the money balance model highlights the potential for continued inflationary pressures and the challenges the Federal Reserve faces in managing inflation through interest rate adjustments.

Are Bond Yields Too High, or Too Low?

The Overshoot • 511 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Employment growth in the US has been strong, but it's not translating to higher wages.
  2. Despite strong employment numbers, bond yields have risen rather than fallen.
  3. The rise in bond yields might be influenced by factors beyond interest rate expectations, presenting potential opportunities for investors.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 183 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The RRP is now at zero, meaning that banks are using all their cash effectively without too much excess cash lying around.
  2. Money market rates are stabilizing, and there are more places to lend money again, helping to keep the market from getting too volatile.
  3. Expect at least one interest rate cut soon, as the economic growth is slow and inflation is still a concern.

How Long Can the Fed’s Independence Last?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 217 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve's independence is being challenged due to political pressures, especially from figures like Donald Trump.
  2. Critics believe current Fed policies have worsened income inequality and fear they could lead to inflation.
  3. Some economic experts argue that the Fed's bond-buying programs primarily benefit Wall Street rather than the general public.

"Soft Landing"? More Like "No Landing"

The Overshoot • 471 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong growth despite persistent inflation and may accelerate further.
  2. Inflation is returning for manufactured goods, potentially putting upward pressure on prices.
  3. Interest rates may need to rise more than expected, leading to a disconnect with recent declines in real yields.

FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. A big share of outstanding fixed-rate mortgages still carry very low pandemic-era rates: loans under 4% peaked at 65.1% (now 51.5%) and loans under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now 68.6%).
  2. Those low existing rates created a strong lock-in that kept many homeowners from selling because replacing their mortgage would sharply raise monthly payments, and that helped depress available home inventory.
  3. That lock-in is slowly eroding — the share of loans above 6% rose from 7.3% in Q2 2022 to 21.2% in Q3 2025, which should gradually increase mobility in the market.

Trump Cards

Net Interest • 18 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Credit card interest rates are much higher than on other loans, and revolving balances generate outsized profits for banks while supporting a large share of consumer spending.
  2. Proposals to cap rates (for example at 10%) would lower costs for borrowers but risk making card products unprofitable, which could reduce credit access and consumer spending.
  3. Past regulations have led lenders to reprice products and raise spreads, so caps or fee limits can trigger unintended shifts in rates, fees, or product availability.

Top Links 638 The credit card racket. Why Trump wants Greenland. The cislunar economy & the age of the gas mask.

Chartbook • 529 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Credit card interest rates in the US can be very high, over 22%, which can be a heavy burden for people carrying balances. It's important to be aware of these costs.
  2. There are discussions around various topics, like why Trump has an interest in Greenland, showing how geopolitics can be tied to business and resources.
  3. The emerging cislunar economy reflects the growing importance of space and its potential impact on our economy and society, underlining how innovation stretches beyond Earth.

The Definitive Guide to Bonds

Market Sentiment • 432 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Leverage in bond investments can work well but also lead to significant losses if market conditions change rapidly.
  2. Bond prices are impacted by interest rate movements, where older bonds may lose value with rate hikes.
  3. The choice between individual bonds and bond ETFs depends on factors like diversification needs, fees, and level of investment sophistication.

Yen’s Short-Term Fluctuations and Long-Term Weakness

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Short-term fluctuations of the yen depend on interest rate gaps between Japan and the US, influencing investors to buy/sell yen.
  2. Long-term weakness of the yen is influenced by the competitiveness of Japanese exports, affecting the overall value of the yen.
  3. The purchasing power of the yen relative to its trading partners has decreased significantly over the past 50 years, impacting Japanese households and companies.

A política monetária nos EUA se encontra em território restritivo?

O Observador de Corcyra • 412 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
  2. There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
  3. Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.