The hottest Investments Substack posts right now

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Not in a Hurry

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Banking Market Trends Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut interest rates anytime soon. They want to see more economic data before making any decisions.
  2. Many experts believe that the market may be expecting interest rate cuts too soon and that any drops in rates won't happen as fast as people think.
  3. Overall, the economy shows signs of strength with stable hiring and positive corporate earnings, making it unclear if rate cuts are actually needed right now.

Homeownership isn't that risky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Homeownership Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Homeownership is often seen as risky, but this idea is misunderstood. Many homes don't actually lose value significantly over time, and the risks are often overstated.
  2. Lower-priced homes can be a good investment, especially for families with lower incomes. The rental income from these homes can outweigh the risks involved.
  3. The financial difficulties in the post-2008 housing market were largely driven by government policies, not the inherent risks of owning a home. For many, owning a home can still be a stable investment over time.

Top Links 573 US bank failures. Gas-powered trucks. The Suriname debt crisis & the underground struggle in Colombia.

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Debt Economics Investments Policy
  1. There have been 573 bank failures in the US, which is a significant number. This may affect the economy and people's trust in banking.
  2. Gas-powered trucks are still widely used, indicating ongoing reliance on fossil fuels. This might have implications for environmental discussions and policies.
  3. The Suriname debt crisis and struggles in Colombia show that economic challenges are not only local but also global. These situations need attention and understanding from a broader perspective.

Top Links 583 Europe's disinflation is real. Elon Musk's state-like powers. Standing with crypto & Nigerian Japa.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Crypto Market Trends Regulations
  1. Europe is experiencing real disinflation, meaning prices are rising more slowly than before. This could impact the economy positively as inflation decreases.
  2. Elon Musk is being discussed for having almost state-like powers due to his influence and control in various sectors. This raises questions about the power of individual leaders in today’s world.
  3. There is a growing support for cryptocurrencies, particularly in Nigeria, where many people are looking for better opportunities, often referred to as 'Japa.' This highlights a trend of using crypto for economic mobility.

Top Links 574 Gold stumbles. How Trump cost Boeing $3 billion. The UK's bitcoin haul. Beak capitalism.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Cryptocurrency Corporate News
  1. Gold prices are struggling and have not been performing well recently. This trend is something to watch in financial markets.
  2. Former President Trump had a significant impact on Boeing, costing the company around $3 billion. This shows how political decisions can affect big businesses.
  3. The UK has seen a notable increase in Bitcoin income, which highlights the growing interest in cryptocurrencies in the region.
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Earnings, capex, and models, oh my!

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💼 Business Earnings Investments Tech industry Market Trends Economic Impact
  1. Microsoft is doing well with cloud services and AI, showing growth and strong investments to meet demand.
  2. Meta is balancing costs well while investing in AI, which is helping them maintain profitability despite other losses.
  3. Tesla is focusing on long-term growth with self-driving technology and new robotics, which some investors find promising despite slow car sales.

Data-Driven Equity Splitting📊, The Path to PMF, Figma's $12.5 Bn Valuation🎨

The VC Corner • 379 implied HN points • 28 Jul 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Fundraising Investments Equity
  1. Fundraising activity peaks between Labor Day and Christmas, so startups should prepare now to attract investors.
  2. Data-driven approaches can help startups split equity more fairly, making it easier to attract and keep talent.
  3. Figma's impressive $12.5 billion valuation shows the potential for growth in the tech industry, which should inspire other startups.

The Timberwolves sale is one of the most unique transactions in sports history

Huddle Up • 20 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🎾 Sports Ownership Transactions Basketball Investments
  1. Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore are set to buy the Minnesota Timberwolves, and they'll see a huge $1.5 billion increase in value right away.
  2. A dispute over the sale led to an arbitration ruling that supports Rodriguez and Lore against the current owner, Glen Taylor.
  3. Rodriguez and Lore are expected to be approved as owners soon, making this one of the most unusual deals in sports history with a lot of drama behind it.

Top Links 568 Stock markets in the 2nd Trump Presidency. How emering markets emerged. Indian food inflation & the global wine glut.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investments Inflation Economics Global Trade
  1. Stock markets might struggle to reach new highs during Trump's second term compared to his first term.
  2. Emerging markets have become more prominent in the global economy, showing their growth potential.
  3. Food inflation in India and oversupply in the wine market are significant trends affecting consumers today.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Policy Insurance
  1. 1. Understanding Economic Issues: The text discusses the idea that many problems in society are linked to economic misunderstandings and a lack of effective communication in the management of public services. It highlights the need for better systems to gather and process information for effective governance.
  2. 2. The Role of Government: It emphasizes that a government's primary job isn't just to keep people safe, but to empower them and solve crises effectively. Officials should focus on actual disaster management rather than just maintaining the appearance of control.
  3. 3. Challenges of Modern Technology: There is a critique of how tech companies like Facebook are operating without a long-term vision, which affects user experiences negatively. The discussion invites us to think about how technology can be used to improve our understanding and utilization of information.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investments Mortgage Rates Economic Trends
  1. House prices are on the rise, with the Case-Shiller National Index showing a year-over-year increase of about 3.8% in November. This trend seems to be continuing into December as well.
  2. The month-over-month changes show that house prices have increased 0.44%, which means house prices have been consistently going up for 22 consecutive months.
  3. Looking ahead, there’s speculation about what will happen with house prices in 2025, indicating that trends in housing are important for future planning.

Is this the end of SaaS?🤔, Venture debt investments swell in Europe💰, Navigating Corporate Venture Capital💡

The VC Corner • 439 implied HN points • 07 Jul 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investments Startups Corporate Finance
  1. There are concerns about the future of Software as a Service (SaaS) and whether it might be declining. It's important to think about how technology changes can impact business models.
  2. Venture debt investments are increasing in Europe, showing that companies are looking for alternative ways to raise money. This means more options are available for businesses instead of just traditional equity financing.
  3. Understanding corporate venture capital is crucial for startups. It helps to know how big companies invest in smaller businesses to drive innovation and growth.

Sailpoint’s lonely IPO accelerates

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💼 Business Startups Finance Investments Market Trends Technology
  1. SailPoint is moving forward with its IPO and has increased its share price range, suggesting a positive market for tech companies. This shows there is still interest in new technology offerings despite some hesitation from other firms.
  2. Startups are reaching $100 million in annual recurring revenue faster than before, making it easier to attract investors. This shift indicates that the traditional milestones for going public are changing.
  3. Shopify had strong revenue growth, but its future profit expectations worried some investors. This illustrates the challenges companies face in today's tough market, even if they are performing well.

How One Synapse/Evolve Victim Got His Money Back

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💰 Finance Banking Investments Regulation Fintech Consumer Rights
  1. Some people affected by the Synapse bankruptcy have struggled to get their money back, leaving many feeling hopeless. The trustee in charge is working on figuring out how to reconcile the missing funds.
  2. One man was able to get his money back by filing a small claims case against Evolve Bank, showcasing that taking legal action can sometimes help consumers regain their lost funds.
  3. In contrast, his daughter faced challenges in court with her similar case, highlighting how results can vary even with similar circumstances. This shows that legal situations can be unpredictable.

Top Links 557 Inflation worries and the US bond market. Russian oil mega merger. Van Gogh & the art of dying.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Bonds Oil
  1. Inflation concerns are becoming a big issue again for the US bond market. This can affect interest rates and borrowing costs for everyone.
  2. There is a significant merger happening in the Russian oil sector. This might change the landscape of oil supply and prices globally.
  3. Van Gogh's life and art are being explored in a new way, touching on themes of mortality and creativity. His work continues to inspire deep reflections on life and death.

Fed Stonewalls Synapse FOIA Request

Fintech Business Weekly • 44 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Fintech Investments
  1. The Cash App recently settled legal issues, which included fines for not properly handling anti-money laundering rules. They also agreed to improve their security and support for users.
  2. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a report on 'buy now, pay later' services, revealing that many loans are small but often lead users to take out multiple loans at once.
  3. There are ongoing concerns about transparency from banking regulators, especially regarding their responses to Freedom of Information Act requests, indicating a gap between what they promise and what they deliver.

Top Links 547 America's huge trade deficit. Hedge funds bet against green. Bout & the Houthis & the grate (sic) cheese robbery.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Trade Investments Economy Hedge Funds Deficits
  1. America's trade deficit widened significantly in September, which means the country is buying way more from other countries than it's selling.
  2. Hedge funds are making big bets against green investments, which suggests they believe these investments won't perform well in the future.
  3. There was a strange robbery involving 'grate cheese' and the Houthis, showing how unusual events can grab attention in the news.

Top Links 538 The rise of options. "Little pipes" and "little fires". THE banana skirt & the Apple-Nike connection.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Commodities Stock Options
  1. The rise of options trading is becoming a big trend in the market. It's important to understand how this affects investments.
  2. The phrase 'little pipes and little fires' suggests small things can have big impacts. It's a reminder that minor issues can escalate quickly.
  3. There’s an interesting connection between brands like Apple and Nike, showing how different industries can influence each other.

Comparing the Financials of Databricks and Snowflake

Tanay’s Newsletter • 82 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💼 Business Finance Technology Startups Growth Investments
  1. Databricks is growing faster than Snowflake, with a revenue growth rate of 57% compared to Snowflake's 27%. However, Snowflake remains more profitable at this point.
  2. Databricks is currently valued higher than Snowflake due to its strong growth potential and better positioning in the AI market. This could lead to a significant payoff for them in the long run.
  3. Snowflake and Databricks have different business strategies, with Snowflake focusing on profitability and Databricks investing heavily in growth and product development, especially in AI technologies.

State of Pre-Seed🌱, Gulf money is flooding into European startups🌏, Looking for AI use-cases🧐

The VC Corner • 579 implied HN points • 28 Apr 24
💼 Business Startups Venture Capital Investments Entrepreneurship Technology
  1. Gulf countries are investing a lot of money into startups in Europe right now. This means European startups have more funding opportunities to grow.
  2. There's a strong interest in finding use-cases for artificial intelligence. Companies are looking for new ways to apply AI technology effectively.
  3. The pre-seed funding stage is important for new businesses to get started. This is when they first seek money to develop their ideas and products.

Let's just value OpenAI at infinite money and be done with it

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Startups Investments Earnings Market Trends
  1. OpenAI's valuation is getting a huge boost, potentially reaching $300 billion. This shows how confident some big investors are about its future.
  2. Major companies like Intel, Apple, and Atlassian are recently reporting their earnings, with some beating expectations while others struggle.
  3. There's a chance of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and possibly China, which could impact business hopes and trade relations.

Synapse Investor Marc Andreessen Says CFPB "Terrorizes" Fintech, Crypto To Protect Big Banks

Fintech Business Weekly • 156 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
💰 Finance Fintech Regulation Investments Banking Consumer Protection
  1. Marc Andreessen claims that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is making it hard for fintech and crypto companies to succeed because it wants to protect big banks. He believes the CFPB causes banks to refuse services to risky customers.
  2. Andreessen argues that independent government agencies like the CFPB aren't accountable to the public and can act without checks. He feels this restricts innovation in financial services.
  3. Despite claims of 'debanking,' major companies are still engaging in crypto activities. The claims about being pushed out due to regulatory pressures may not reflect the whole truth about the market's adaptability.

Coinbase Q1 2024 Earnings Update

DeFi Education • 499 implied HN points • 03 May 24
🔮 Crypto Blockchain Investments Regulation Market Trends Trading
  1. Coinbase stock has seen a recent drop but has gained 16% since the last earnings report. This means it's important to look at the bigger picture rather than just short-term changes.
  2. The company is viewed as becoming a quasi-monopoly in the US, which suggests strong future potential. Holding the stock is based on this long-term belief.
  3. Investors are not focusing solely on earnings as a quick play, but rather on the overall growth and position of Coinbase in the market.

Hedging Inflation with Real Assets

In My Tribe • 622 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investments Inflation Bonds Real Estate Commodities
  1. Investing in real assets like real estate, gold, and commodities can help protect against inflation. These assets are expected to appreciate more when inflation rises.
  2. Understanding profitability is key when investing. It combines rental income, appreciation, and interest rates to determine if an investment is worth it.
  3. Inflation-indexed bonds (like i-bonds) can be a good hedge but have limits on how much you can buy. They provide some safety against inflation, even though their performance can vary.

Face First

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments Cryptocurrency Economics Regulations Market Trends
  1. Cryptocurrency is becoming a major focus in the U.S., especially with recent government actions. This could be a sign of big changes in the stock market ahead.
  2. President Trump supports crypto by promoting regulations and aiming to make the U.S. a leader in this industry. This includes plans for a national Bitcoin reserve.
  3. There is still uncertainty about the long-term value of cryptocurrencies. People are wondering if they will actually be useful or if they might fail completely.

DeepSeek: Does a Small AI Model Invalidate Big Models?

Jakob Nielsen on UX • 27 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Models Machine Learning Computing Data Analysis Investments
  1. DeepSeek's AI model is cheaper and uses a lot less computing power than other big models, but it still performs well. This shows smaller models can be very competitive.
  2. Investments in AI are expected to keep growing, even with cheaper models available. Companies will still spend billions to advance AI technology and achieve superintelligence.
  3. As AI gets cheaper, more people will use it and businesses will likely spend more on AI services. The demand for AI will increase as it becomes more accessible.

How BigTech Invested in AI Companies in 2023

AI Supremacy • 1022 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Investments Venture Capital Big Tech Emerging Tech
  1. BigTech, including companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, made significant investments in AI companies in 2023.
  2. Nvidia emerged as a leading investor in Generative AI in 2023, making diversified bets in the space and establishing a dedicated venture capital arm.
  3. Foundation models and development platforms were major beneficiaries of Big Tech's investment funding, with companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Salesforce deeply involved.

December 2024 Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Markets Inflation Housing
  1. December 2024 saw important updates about inflation. This is something people need to keep an eye on for their finances.
  2. There's a focus on housing data, which is crucial as it can greatly affect the economy and people's living situations.
  3. Subscribing to this housing tracker gives access to ongoing insights. This can help people stay informed about market changes.

Interest Rate Risks are Collapsing Banks

The Informationist • 1650 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Risk management Financial Crisis Investments
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals

Could the USD Hyperinflate?

The Informationist • 1592 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Markets Currency Investments Assets
  1. Hyperinflation is when a currency loses value rapidly due to extreme inflation.
  2. Some currencies have hyperinflated in the past, like those of Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Hungary.
  3. While there is a chance the USD could hyperinflate, it is likely one of the last currencies to do so and owning hard assets can help protect against hyperinflation.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Economics Investments
  1. California home sales increased by about 19.8% compared to last year in December. This shows a strong recovery in the housing market.
  2. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects the existing home sales report for December to reflect ongoing growth. This will mark the third month of year-over-year increases in home sales.
  3. There’s a general positive trend in the housing market after months of decline. It's a sign that more people are starting to buy homes again.

A Sugar AI High Shrugs Off Bad Market News

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 884 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets Investments Economy Interest Rates Geopolitics
  1. The S&P 500 continues to rise despite bad news like inflation and unemployment.
  2. Big tech billionaires are heavily investing in AI that may impact the job market and lead to technological warfare.
  3. Geopolitical tensions, including the possibility of war in the Middle East, are influencing the market's stability.

The Smartest NBA Owners Have Been Anticipating The Arrival Of Maverick Carter's $5 Billion NBA Competitor

Huddle Up • 22 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
🎾 Sports NBA Ownership Competitors Investments Business Strategies
  1. Maverick Carter is planning to launch a new basketball league worth $5 billion, which could compete with the NBA. This shows how the sports landscape is changing with new players entering the market.
  2. Some smart NBA owners have started to notice this change and are preparing for the arrival of this competitor. They might see it as a chance to adapt their strategies or invest differently.
  3. A former NBA owner mentioned that he sold his stake in a team after many years, hinting at potential uncertainties in the value and future of NBA investments. This could suggest that investors are becoming cautious about their commitments in the league.

Rockets go up, learning Mandarin, and the good news for SaaS

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💼 Business Tech industry Startups Investments Market Trends SaaS
  1. The launch of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket was a success, marking a significant milestone in space exploration. Despite some setbacks, it showed progress in competing with other space companies like SpaceX.
  2. Duolingo is seeing a boost in interest and stock value as more people want to learn Mandarin due to changes in social media access. This trend suggests that more individuals may pursue learning different languages in the future.
  3. Public-market SaaS revenue multiples are currently stable, indicating a good environment for top cloud companies. This shows that, historically, it's a favorable time for generating market value in the SaaS sector.

Fraud in Asia

Asian Century Stocks • 668 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
💰 Finance Fraud Accounting Investments Financial Analysis
  1. Tan & Robinson's book on Asian financial statement analysis is a key resource for spotting fraud and misrepresentation in Asia.
  2. Watch out for companies with high margins, poor cash flows, fast-growing balance sheets, and complex corporate structures with frequent related party transactions.
  3. High-profile short-seller reports should be taken seriously when assessing potential fraud in companies.

Crypto Market Update

DeFi Education • 999 implied HN points • 09 Nov 23
🔮 Crypto Market Trends Investments NFTs Regulation Trading Strategies
  1. Bitcoin's price might not go up much more right now, so some investors are selling it and looking for better opportunities in other assets like Ethereum or NFTs.
  2. Coinbase stock has grown significantly recently, showing that investing in established crypto companies can be a good strategy for long-term growth.
  3. NFTs are getting more attention again, with recent high-profile sales indicating a possible resurgence in the market.