The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Hotel REITs

Warden Capital • 275 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Economics Markets Business
  1. Hotel REITs in the public markets have high yields and are trading at 8-10+% cap rates, making them a potentially lucrative investment option.
  2. Compared to other real estate asset classes like multifamily and industrial, hotel REITs offer superior yields and lower capex burdens, making them a cost-effective choice for investors.
  3. The hotel industry has faced challenges post-COVID, especially in urban markets, but with the recovery of leisure, group, and business travel, there is significant potential for growth and investment opportunities.
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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Market Mortgage Rates
  1. The closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed when mortgage rates were lower than in the previous months. This signifies a trend of lower mortgage rates impacting sales.
  2. Active inventory in February showed mixed trends with some areas experiencing significant year-over-year increases in inventory while others saw decreases compared to 2019.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still remained at historically low levels. Most areas reported lower new listings compared to January 2019.

Lawler: Update on “Is the “Natural” Rate of Interest Back to Pre-Financial Crisis Levels”

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 62 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, showing a 6.3% increase from December and 0.5% from last January.
  2. The estimated 'natural' real rate of interest has shown varying trends, with one measure rising to slightly above 2% for two quarters while another started to move back down.
  3. Economists have noted potential biases in the estimates of the impact of 'other factors' on the 'natural' rate of interest, and some have suggested using TIPS rates as an indicator of market views.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Mortgage Rates
  1. Early reports suggest an increase in home sales from January to February.
  2. Closed home sales in February were based on contracts signed in December and January when mortgage rates were lower compared to the previous months.
  3. Inventory for housing markets in January was down year-over-year but has seen a slight increase compared to the previous year.

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Rates
  1. Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes, which helps prevent a surge in foreclosures that could impact house prices.
  2. The distribution of interest rates on mortgages shows that a large percentage are under 4%, making it easier for homeowners to manage financially.
  3. Understanding key housing terms like forbearance, delinquency, foreclosure, and REO (Real Estate Owned) can help navigate discussions about property ownership.

The REIT Pain Trade

Lewis Enterprises • 216 implied HN points • 10 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate
  1. Shorting REITs vulnerable to higher rates has been a popular but unsuccessful trade this year.
  2. The post does not offer investment advice and comes from the author's interest in quantitative investing and REITs.
  3. Readers can access the full post by subscribing to Lewis Enterprises for a 7-day free trial.

The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt GDP Real Estate Homeownership
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners used their perceived home equity as a 'Home ATM,' contributing to the subsequent housing bust when prices declined.
  2. Refinancing activity declined in early 2022 as mortgage rates rose, leading to a shift where homeowners started using home equity loans to access their equity.
  3. Despite a decline in demand for HELOCs and a decrease in refinancing activity, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) remained low throughout Q4 2023, indicating balanced equity borrowing and principal payments.

Make Office Buildings Fun Again

The New Urban Order • 279 implied HN points • 09 Oct 23
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Urban Development Social Trends Innovation
  1. Converting office buildings into co-living spaces can help address social challenges like loneliness and offer more housing options.
  2. Co-living is a shared living model that emphasizes intentional community through communal spaces and activities.
  3. Co-living has the potential to be a source of affordable housing, cater to different demographics like seniors and digital nomads, and could be aligned with co-working spaces for a more integrated urban living experience.

Some Thoughts On Using Auctions For Land Valuation

Splitting Infinity • 59 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Taxation Property Real Estate Economics Auctions
  1. Auctions can be considered as a method for assessing land values without the need for state-run assessments, allowing the market to determine the value of land.
  2. The use of auctions for land valuation can ensure transparency and fairness by providing everyone with the opportunity to bid on a piece of land publicly.
  3. While auctions may introduce some complexities like bargaining over home prices, they can still lead to reasonably accurate land valuations and generate significant tax revenue.

Rental Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 98 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate Investing Economy Housing Market
  1. Rents have been increasing but are expected to flatten and possibly decline in 2024 due to a surge in new rental units hitting the market.
  2. Vacancy rates are starting to increase, indicating an evolving rental market tied to new inventory.
  3. Investors should be cautious as margins are expected to get tighter with declining rents, a tough borrowing environment, and tighter lending standards.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 6.2% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Indices Markets
  1. Freddie Mac's National Home Price Index rose 6.2% year-over-year in January, marking a positive trend in the housing market
  2. The index has been climbing consecutively for the past 13 months, showing sustained growth in home prices
  3. Seasonally adjusted data reveals that 16 states and D.C. experienced price declines, with Austin being the worst-performing city

Lawsuits Rock Realtors and What it Means for Home Sales

The Sunday Morning Post • 78 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate Lawsuits Market Industry
  1. A series of lawsuits have shaken up the National Association of Realtors and real estate brokerage firms, potentially leading to changes in how homes are bought and sold.
  2. The lawsuits focus on inflated commissions in real estate transactions, aiming to decouple commissions between buyers' and sellers' agents, and could lead to different compensation structures in the industry.
  3. A new organization, the American Real Estate Association, has emerged to challenge the NAR's hold on the real estate market by offering more flexible commission fees and membership dues.

New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Data Economic Trends Housing supply
  1. In January 2024, new home sales were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year.
  2. The median new home price has dropped by 15% from its peak, indicating potential shifts in the real estate market.
  3. Inventory levels for new homes show variations, with completed homes for sale at a level close to the norm, while homes under construction are high but below previous peak levels.

The 1%

Market Sentiment • 589 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Management Asset allocation Real Estate
  1. Many millionaires invest their money wisely, not just through income.
  2. The top 1% of Americans own more stocks than the other 99%, highlighting the importance of investing in equities for wealth growth.
  3. Affluent retail investors typically have a long-term risk orientation with high equity exposure and minimal panic selling tendencies.

Recession Tug-of-War: Downside versus Bright Side

Risk Musings • 401 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economy Real Estate Inflation Insurance Climate change
  1. The US economy faces challenges like high interest rates, commercial real estate vacancies, inflation, and climate change.
  2. Despite challenges, positive factors like AI, consumer demand, residential real estate, and labor strength are helping the economy remain resilient.
  3. The tug-of-war between downside risks and bright side factors will determine the economic outcome in the short, medium, and long terms.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💼 Business Housing Markets Real Estate Sales Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. California home sales were up 5.9% year-over-year in January, marking the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months.
  2. Active listings in California decreased year-over-year for the 10th month but new listings increased, suggesting some balance in the market.
  3. In January, closed sales in various markets were up 3.0%, showing improvement compared to the previous month, but they are down compared to January 2019 levels.

Lawler: Rent Trends at some Large Holders of Multifamily Properties

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Economics Finance Market Analysis Housing
  1. Rent growth has slowed sharply at large holders of multifamily properties like MAA, Equity Residential, and Avalon Bay Communities in the past year.
  2. Despite overall rent growth slowdown, year-over-year growth in rent renewals remained in the 4.5% - 5% range in January, showing a different trend.
  3. There is a lesson to be learned from the 1994-1995 Fed tightening episode where the Federal Reserve raised the policy rate significantly without triggering a recession, providing valuable insights for current monetary policymaking.

01/30/24 - The entirety of Ukraine, working its ass off in total war for over a year, cannot match up to even Evergrande as a single company.

Moly’s Substack • 58 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Economy Debt Employment Real Estate Finance
  1. Even the entirety of Ukraine in total war for over a year cannot match the debt of just a single company like Evergrande.
  2. Jobs like sorting packages and working in a production line can be extremely exhausting and pay very little.
  3. The debt of Evergrande alone is larger than the debt of the entirety of Ukraine, along with many other real estate companies combined.

[Recording] How to live near friends: 6 models that work

Supernuclear • 275 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
🏝 Travel Friendship Community Real Estate
  1. The post discusses 6 models for living near friends, ranging from easy to hard like organizing a neighborhood or co-buying a vacation home.
  2. Start with something easier on the list and progressively move to harder options, but it's okay to jump into a harder model too.
  3. Lessons learned and insights are shared from experiments on living near friends by the authors with a Q&A session.

MREIT Stocking Stuffers

Lewis Enterprises • 98 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Real Estate
  1. A few Mortgage REIT Fixed-to-Float preferreds offer short-term yields
  2. Mortgage REITs mitigate credit risks through hedging but face other risks like funding costs and market volatility
  3. Preferred series of three mortgage REITs will start floating in the first half of 2024

Endgame #3

The Dollar Endgame • 119 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy Investments Monetary Policy Real Estate Banking
  1. Japan adjusted its bond yield control policy in an effort to curb interest rates, showing the delicate balance between stimulating the economy and managing debt.
  2. The United States is experiencing increases in national debt and a housing market slowdown due to rising interest rates impacting new home and car sales.
  3. Gold prices have been rising as a safe haven investment, influenced by a weakening dollar and central banks acquiring significant amounts of gold, serving as a potential indicator of future monetary debasement.

IWG: A Wonderful Company at a Wonderful Price

Modern Value Investing • 39 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Marketplace Growth Profitability
  1. IWG has a solid legacy business model of providing flexible workspaces and is trading at a great price, making it an attractive investment option.
  2. IWG's Worka segment is a fast-growing and profitable marketplace business, showing solid growth and expected to generate significant revenue.
  3. IWG is transitioning to a capital-light model and aims to become a major player in managed and franchised office space, with significant growth potential in the untapped market of office real estate.