The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top World Politics Topics

The Return of the Rust Belt

The New Urban Order • 359 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate Economics Housing Markets Investments Climate change
  1. Cities in the Rust Belt like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Indianapolis are emerging as top housing markets for 2024, showing significant price appreciation.
  2. Contrary to popular belief, cities in the Midwest and Rust Belt are now becoming more attractive due to affordability compared to traditionally booming cities in the South and West.
  3. Factors like housing affordability, climate change, and government and private investments are influencing the resurgence of the Rust Belt cities in 2024.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices have been steadily increasing, showing a 3.6% rise year-over-year as of October and continued growth is expected.
  2. There has been a consistent upward trend in house prices, with a 0.35% monthly increase noted, marking the 21st month of growth.
  3. The outlook for house prices in 2025 remains uncertain, with various factors influencing future changes in the housing market.

The 1%

Market Sentiment • 589 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Management Asset allocation Equities Real Estate
  1. Many millionaires invest their money wisely, not just through income.
  2. The top 1% of Americans own more stocks than the other 99%, highlighting the importance of investing in equities for wealth growth.
  3. Affluent retail investors typically have a long-term risk orientation with high equity exposure and minimal panic selling tendencies.

Harvard's Water

Lewis Enterprises • 589 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💼 Business Investing Real Estate Water resources
  1. Long-term institutional investing can provide a unique edge in the financial market.
  2. Establishing unconventional investment profiles can lead to great returns but might challenge conventional wisdom.
  3. Harvard's approach to investing in water resources and farmland involves complex strategies and global acquisitions.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. House prices in the U.S. increased by 3.6% over the past year, according to the Case-Shiller National House Price Index. This suggests that home values are generally rising.
  2. In October, prices went up by 0.35% from the previous month, marking the 21st straight month of increases. Most major cities saw price growth, but some cities like San Francisco have seen declines from their peaks.
  3. Although house prices continue to rise, the rate of growth is slowing down compared to previous years. Factors like high mortgage rates and low inventory are affecting affordability.

Shades of 2008?

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Banking Market Trends International Markets Risk management
  1. The commercial real estate market is facing challenges due to decreased demand for office and retail spaces, leading to increased vacancy rates.
  2. Approximately $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt in the US is set to mature within the next two years, posing risks for banks and investors.
  3. There are concerns of a commercial real estate crisis resembling the 2008 financial crisis, with warning signs evident in the US, Europe, and Asia.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Sales Data Market Trends Housing Prices Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 4.24 million in December, showing a 2.2% increase from November. This marks a positive trend after several months of decline.
  2. The median house price reached a record high of $407,500, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive.
  3. Total housing inventory decreased to 1.15 million units, suggesting a tighter market. While inventory is down from last month, it has gone up 16.2% compared to last year.

Homebuilder Earnings Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Investment Analysis Market research Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings are being updated, which is important for understanding the housing market. This update can give insights into how homebuilders are performing financially.
  2. Keeping track of homebuilder performance can help in making informed decisions about buying or selling a home. If builders are doing well, it might indicate a strong housing market.
  3. The information provided is available through a subscription service, which offers more detailed analyses and insights. Exploring these resources can be beneficial for those interested in housing trends.

7 Charts Show the Housing Tipping Point Has Arrived

The New Urban Order • 199 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💼 Business Housing Supply and Demand Real Estate Economics Urban Development
  1. There is a significant increase in multifamily housing supply, signaling a potential tipping point in the housing industry.
  2. Cities like Minneapolis that have increased housing supply are seeing a decrease in rent prices, showcasing the impact of supply and demand in the housing market.
  3. The increase in housing supply across the U.S. is leading to declines in rent prices in many major markets, demonstrating the effectiveness of increasing supply to address housing affordability.

Peak Office

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 537 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💼 Business Workforce Trends Real Estate Productivity
  1. Office utilization in the US is only at 21%, half the level before the pandemic, showing a significant shift towards remote and hybrid work.
  2. Despite worker demand for remote jobs, there is a notable shortage of such positions compared to on-site and hybrid roles, potentially leading to workforce dissatisfaction.
  3. The return-to-office mandates are largely driven by the need for US-based employers to optimize investments in commercial property and uphold control over employees, rather than being solely productivity-driven.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Inventory Analysis Housing policy
  1. New home listings rose slightly by 2% in November compared to last year, but they are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  2. The increase in listings was fueled by lower mortgage rates, but higher rates are now reducing new sellers coming into the market.
  3. December and January are typically slow months for new home listings, so we can expect fewer homes to be listed in the near future.

China Taxi Cab Chronicles 1: Mr. Yang the Family Man

Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones • 373 implied HN points • 24 Nov 23
🎭️ Culture Society Economics Lifestyle Family Real Estate
  1. Mr. Yang prioritizes saving for his daughter's future and taking care of his parents, even after buying a house.
  2. Yang and his wife sacrifice current consumption to save for long-term goals, like their daughter's education.
  3. His consumption habits have changed with age and responsibilities, focusing on family needs over personal desires.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales
  1. New listings of homes were up by about 5% compared to last year, but they are still much lower than normal levels seen before the pandemic.
  2. The drop in mortgage rates starting in mid-August encouraged more homeowners to list their homes for sale, which is expected to continue even in the colder months.
  3. Weather events like Hurricane Milton affected home listings and sales in certain areas, particularly in Florida, showing that local conditions can impact the overall housing market.

Can Vingroup Upgrade Vietnam’s Auto Industry?

The Asianometry Newsletter • 1269 implied HN points • 17 May 23
💼 Business Automotive Real Estate Diversification Challenges Global expansion
  1. Vingroup started as an instant noodle company and quickly diversified into real estate, healthcare, education, and more.
  2. Vingroup's venture into electric vehicles with VinFast faces big challenges in the global EV market and technical expertise.
  3. Vingroup's diversification strategy into multiple industries like electronics mirrors other successful conglomerates but comes with risks and challenges.

Groundly's Ground-Rent Grift

Progress and Poverty • 538 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate Finance Economy Policy Innovation
  1. Georgists scrutinize speculative investing in land, seeing land rent as unearned income.
  2. Groundly's offer of buying just-the-house and renting the land may seem affordable upfront but comes with hidden costs and responsibilities.
  3. Traditional lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have challenges financing Groundly-type leasebacks, raising concerns about the viability of the business model.

October 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Market Analysis Sales trends
  1. New home sales have sharply decreased recently, which may be linked to high mortgage rates. This situation is causing a lot of homes to sit on the market longer.
  2. The increase in months of inventory suggests that buyers are hesitant or unable to purchase new homes right now. This might indicate a cooling off in the housing market.
  3. The article hints at changes in the housing market that could be significant. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Housing Market Debt Management
  1. Homeowners are extracting less equity from their homes compared to the past, which is a positive sign for the housing market stability.
  2. Despite a slight rise in negative equity, most homeowners still have significant equity in their homes, which helps buffer against market downturns.
  3. Mortgage debt is rising, but it remains a lower percentage of GDP compared to the peak during the housing bubble, indicating healthier borrowing practices.

California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Home Prices
  1. California home sales increased by 9.5% in October compared to the previous year, showing a strong recovery.
  2. October 2023 marked the first year-over-year gain in national existing home sales since August 2021 after a long decline.
  3. Mortgage rates, which dropped in August and September, contributed to the rise in sales, but recent increases might slow future sales.

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Housing Prices Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales dropped sharply to an annual rate of 610,000 in October, which is a significant decrease from previous months. This decline might be linked to recent hurricanes affecting certain areas.
  2. The median price of new homes has decreased by 5% from its peak, which is partly due to the types of homes being sold. This suggests a shift in the market's composition.
  3. There is a notable increase in the months of supply for new homes, now at 9.5 months, indicating a bigger inventory than usual. More completed homes are available compared to recent years, especially since the pandemic.

Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Prices Supply and Demand
  1. House prices are expected to rise by about 3% to 4% in 2024. This prediction is based on the current trends in housing inventory and sales.
  2. The future of house prices in 2025 will largely depend on supply and demand in the market. A shortage or surplus of homes can greatly influence prices.
  3. There are significant differences in home supply across different regions, with areas like Florida and Texas seeing more inventory. This suggests that while national trends matter, local conditions can lead to very different outcomes.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators
  1. In October, existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase, which is the first time this has happened since August 2021. This means more people are buying homes now compared to last year.
  2. The median price of homes rose by about 4.7% compared to the same time last year, showing that homes are becoming more expensive even though sales are still low.
  3. Active inventory of homes for sale went up by 25.9% year-over-year, especially in places like Florida and Texas. This increase could impact home prices in the coming months.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In November, housing starts dropped to an annual rate of 1.289 million, marking a 1.8% decrease from October. The overall rate is also down 14.6% compared to November 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts saw a slight increase of 6.4% from October, while multi-family starts fell significantly by 27.6% year-over-year. This shows that the single-family housing market is performing better than multi-family units.
  3. Year-to-date, total housing starts are down 4.3%, but single-family starts are up 7.2%. Multi-family starts, however, have seen a decline of 30.1%, indicating a tough year for that segment of the market.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Interest Rates Economic Indicators Market Trends Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales increased in November, reaching an annual rate of 4.09 million. This is a 3.3% increase from October and 4.6% higher than last November.
  2. The median price for existing single-family homes went up by about 5.3% compared to last year. This suggests a growing demand in the housing market.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the 'neutral' interest rate, which affects how restrictive monetary policy is. Recent economic growth may lead to higher estimates of this rate among officials.

Follow Up to Case-Shiller & Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Data Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author analyzed different housing data like Case-Shiller and rent inflation. It's interesting to see how these data points relate to each other.
  2. There are components in the Erdmann Housing Tracker that provide extra insights on the housing market. Comparing these with other measurements helps to understand trends better.
  3. The analysis is not meant for academic purposes, but it's a fun exploration of the data. It shows how digging into numbers can reveal patterns.

Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economy Real Estate Forecasting
  1. Housing prices are expected to rise a little in 2025, but not by much. People think the increase will be in the low to mid single digits.
  2. Sales of new and existing homes are predicted to go up next year. However, existing home sales will likely stay around four million.
  3. The construction of multi-family homes is not expected to improve in 2025. Builders are generally cautious about starting new multi-family projects.

Congratulations On Your New Money Pit!

Shades of Greaves • 275 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
💰 Finance Personal Finance Investing Budgeting Real Estate
  1. Owning a 'money pit' home comes with financial responsibilities like mortgage, property taxes, and maintenance costs.
  2. Engaging in DIY home repairs can save money but may take more time and effort than expected.
  3. Despite the challenges, owning a home allows for building relationships with neighbors and sharing experiences with other homeowners.

New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Inventory Analysis
  1. New home sales went up to a rate of 664,000 in November, showing a good increase from October. This is also higher than the numbers from the same time last year.
  2. The supply of new homes available for sale decreased slightly, now sitting at 8.9 months. This is still higher than the usual range, which is about 4 to 6 months.
  3. The inventory of completed homes is up, with nearly 120,000 available, showing more options for buyers compared to the very low supply in early 2022.

Updating my priors on missing middle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 379 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Urban Development Supply and Demand
  1. Missing middle housing developments can be more impactful in addressing housing affordability issues than previously thought.
  2. Simply advocating for 'build more' without considering the complexity and various factors at play may not fully address housing supply constraints.
  3. Increasing the construction of 'missing middle' housing units significantly could play a crucial role in normalizing the American housing market and addressing housing shortages.

Developer rolls the dice on massive uptown casino complex

The Charlotte Ledger • 373 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
💼 Business Real Estate Hospitality Entertainment Local news Consulting
  1. A developer plans a massive casino and hotel complex in uptown Charlotte after new gambling laws are passed
  2. A beloved business requests historic status, potentially affecting new tower developments near Morehead Street
  3. Chick-fil-A and Carvana partner to tackle traffic congestion by allowing drive-thru customers to idle in a car vending machine

What is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Dividends Market Analysis Portfolio Management
  1. A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) lets you invest in real estate without actually owning properties. You buy shares in a company that owns and manages real estate, earning money from the profits.
  2. REITs generally pay high dividends because they are required by law to return 90% of their taxable income to shareholders. This makes them appealing for income-focused investors.
  3. Investing in REITs gives you access to commercial real estate, offers liquidity like stocks, and can diversify your investment portfolio without the hassle of property management.

FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $806,500

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Loans Real Estate Market Trends Regulations
  1. The baseline conforming loan limit for 2025 is being raised to $806,500, which is about $40,000 more than last year. This means people can borrow more for buying homes without needing special approval.
  2. In high-cost areas, the loan limit can go up to $1,209,750 for one-unit properties. That's because home prices in those places are higher than average.
  3. The FHA also has its own loan limits ranging from $524,225 in low-cost areas to $1,209,750 in high-cost areas. These limits help make affordability better for those getting loans guaranteed by the FHA.

Office Armageddon

Diane Francis • 639 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
💼 Business Real Estate Urban planning Finance Work Culture Government Policy
  1. Many big city offices are empty now because a lot of people are working from home. This change is hurting banks and city budgets as tax revenues drop.
  2. Cities are losing population for the first time in decades, which is causing more vacant shops and offices. This could lead to financial trouble for local governments.
  3. Turning empty office buildings into homes could be a solution, but it’s complicated and expensive. Cities need to rethink their spaces and invest in community facilities to attract people back.