The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

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Beijing's Bubble Bursts Part 1

Diane Francis • 779 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Taiwan's recent election saw a victory for William Lai, which was not welcomed by Beijing and highlighted tensions between the two regions.
  2. China's stock exchanges have dropped significantly, with mainland markets falling by 6-7% and Hong Kong by 12%, signaling economic struggles.
  3. The financial issues with Evergrande Group, a major property developer, have led to a court-ordered liquidation, exposing the dangers of China's real estate bubble.

talking sense on housing affordability

bad cattitude • 203 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Housing prices have increased recently, but they were quite affordable before 2021. It's important to understand this context when discussing affordability.
  2. Interest rates play a big role in housing costs, and rising rates can make homes much more expensive over time.
  3. To truly improve housing affordability, we need to increase the supply of homes and make construction easier, rather than just adding subsidies.

Wardriving for a place to live

Jampa’s Substack • 40 HN points • 21 Aug 24
đź•ą Technology Real Estate
  1. Finding a place to live in a small, low-tech city can be really challenging. There aren't many real estate options or online listings, so one might need to explore the area by driving around.
  2. Using technology like OpenStreetMaps and AI can help in identifying neighborhoods and evaluating their quality. This can save a lot of time compared to traditional methods.
  3. It's important to check the neighborhood in person, even after using tech tools. Seeing the area first-hand can give a better understanding of what to expect and help find suitable homes.

February ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Early-January rate declines toward 6% opened large refinance opportunities for millions and pushed affordability to a four-year high, but prices remain elevated relative to incomes.
  2. National home price growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2011, with the South and West weakening while the Northeast and Midwest hold firmer, and inventories still lagging pre-pandemic norms in many areas.
  3. Negative equity has risen to the highest level since 2018, concentrated in recent loan vintages and in several Southern markets where over 10% of mortgaged homes are underwater.
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1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Early-reporting markets show January existing-home sales down year-over-year (about 7.2% in those markets), and seasonally adjusted national sales are likely lower. Many areas hit by Winter Storm Fern haven’t reported yet, so delayed closings could make the final numbers weaker.
  2. New listings were up modestly (about 2.1% YoY) and active inventory rose roughly 11.4% YoY, so supply is increasing in these markets. However, listings are still down compared with January 2019 in many places.
  3. Mortgage rates averaged about 6.2% in November and December, and January closings mostly reflect contracts signed then, which likely weighed on sales. Overall, most of these local markets remain well below January 2019 sales levels.

Quick note on housing and family formation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Falling marriage rates explain much of the drop in young homeownership, but a large share of 25–34-year-olds are now living as non-heads of household instead of forming independent households.
  2. The bigger issue is a severe housing shortage—roughly 15–20 million missing units—that has driven about 50% cumulative excess rent inflation and kept roughly 7 million young adults from forming households.
  3. Housing affordability should be seen as a symptom of supply problems, so removing barriers to building more homes would lower rents and make it easier for young adults to form households and families.

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Postscript 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. A nationwide scarcity premium—people paying extra for limited location/lots rather than for actual housing—explains almost all of the elevated home prices and rents, especially in constrained metro areas. It will only fade as supply rises or closed-access cities reform, otherwise it could persist for decades.
  2. Tighter mortgage access since 2008 raised effective rents and shifted value away from ownership of structures toward land/scarcity, hitting lower-income neighborhoods hardest and increasing gross rental yields. This change also reduced who can buy and altered the kinds of homes that get built.
  3. A rapid correction of the scarcity premium requires a big building boom and a return toward earlier lending norms, which could cut the adjustment to 10–15 years; blocking construction or restricting investors will stretch the correction out over many decades.

Podcast with UCLA Housing Voice

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. The conversation examines how mortgage lending standards have influenced the housing market.
  2. Shane Phillips from UCLA’s Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies shares policy perspectives on lending and its effects.
  3. A full, one-hour interview is available online for anyone who wants a deeper look at these issues.

Second Thomas Shoal approaching a crisis?; Wang Yi to visit the US; Spy games intensify; Real estate, debt and stock market support; Malaise

Sinocism • 923 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Real Estate
  1. PRC ships rammed Philippine vessels in South China Sea, escalation of crisis at Second Thomas Shoal
  2. Wang Yi visiting US, part of effort to have Xi Jinping attend APEC in San Francisco and meet with Biden
  3. Intensifying spy war between US and China, with recent revelations of alleged US spies and Five Eyes discussing threats from China

Top Links 815 Is the US housing market on the brink? How the Houthis import oil. Beating cancer & Chris Clark on the end of modernity.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. The US housing market may be facing serious issues. People are curious about whether it could be on the brink of a major change.
  2. There's information on how the Houthis, a group from Yemen, import oil. This sheds light on their operations and impacts on the global oil market.
  3. The topic of beating cancer and discussions on modernity suggest a broader look at health and societal changes. These discussions can help us understand current challenges.

Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 71 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saw single-family serious delinquency rates rise to about 0.58% in November, a small month-over-month and year-over-year increase but still below pre-pandemic highs.
  2. Delinquency is concentrated in older loan vintages: Fannie’s 2004-and-earlier and 2005–2008 loans have much higher serious delinquency rates, while loans from 2009–2025 show very low delinquency.
  3. Fannie Mae’s multi-family delinquency rate has climbed to its highest level since the housing bust (excluding the pandemic), signaling rising stress in the multi-family sector.

Hollywood's Real Estate Romance is Over

The Ankler • 923 implied HN points • 07 Jul 23
🎭️ Culture Real Estate
  1. The Hollywood industry's writers are facing uncertainty about future work, impacting their ability to invest in real estate.
  2. The soaring real estate market prices in L.A. are making homeownership increasingly unattainable for writers and other entertainment professionals.
  3. The writer strike, combined with other factors like interest rates and taxes, is contributing to a slowdown in real estate transactions across Los Angeles.

December 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. The housing market is in a long, slow recovery: construction, rents, and prices are gradually rising and a housing shortage makes a conventional recession hard to trigger.
  2. Measured inflation is roughly at the 2% target once shelter is excluded, but recent CPI gains are mainly driven by rent/shelter and a bit of tariff-driven noise.
  3. Policy and shocks matter: tariffs and looser Fed policy could lift inflation again, but without a major shock or chaotic policy change the slow recovery should keep chugging along as new homebuilding slowly raises capacity.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National and Composite 20 indexes hit new all-time highs in November, just above the prior peak from early 2025.
  2. Adjusted for inflation, national house prices are about 2.4% below their recent peak (and roughly 10.1% above the older bubble peak), while the Composite 20 is about 2.6% below its 2022 peak.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is down about 9.6% from its 2022 high, and rising inventory plus persistent inflation pushed real house prices roughly 1.5% lower through November 2025.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Inventory has risen sharply back toward pre‑pandemic levels while existing‑home sales fell to the lowest since 1995, and that combination is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. National house‑price indexes show only small year‑over‑year gains (around 1–2%), and the trend is slowing with reported data lagging recent market moves.
  3. Lower mortgage rates have increased purchase mortgage applications but haven’t yet boosted sales significantly, and a large wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low rates.

October 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. September and October residential construction updates are now available and cover recent activity for those months.
  2. Full details are behind a subscription paywall, but there is an option to claim a free post or subscribe to read everything.
  3. The write-up includes detailed month-by-month construction reporting for readers who access the full content.

Top Links 780 First-time home buyers. Stablecoin surge. Thatcher's Volcker shock & the Alpha Course.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. First-time home buyers are facing challenges in today's market. It's getting harder for them to find affordable options.
  2. There's been a surge in stablecoins recently. This could have big impacts on the financial landscape.
  3. Historical events like Thatcher's Volcker shock still influence today's economic discussions. They show how past policies shape current financial situations.

All Time High Everything

Deep Pulusani - Risk • 222 implied HN points • 19 Sep 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Asset prices are at all-time highs, so wages and earned income matter less for net wealth and rate cuts/additional liquidity mostly benefit asset owners while eroding purchasing power.
  2. Monetary policy and political incentives now push to support equity prices—Fed easing, vast retirement savings into stocks, and global dollar flows (plus a weakening dollar) are lifting both equities and gold together.
  3. Demographics and fiscal choices are shifting wealth toward older generations and burdening the young, leaving three plausible paths ahead: sustained productivity-led gains, a tech/AI-driven bubble and bust, or an inflation/currency-driven market that masks real weakness.

Amateurs talk Algorithms, Professionals talk Data Cleaning

Progress and Poverty • 423 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Good data is more important than fancy algorithms. If your data is messy, even the best technology won't help you.
  2. You should always validate your sales data to remove any incorrect transactions. This helps to ensure accurate appraisals.
  3. Using tools like clustering can simplify the process of checking sales data, making it easier to spot mistakes and focus on valid sales.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #53

Faster, Please! • 365 implied HN points • 19 Jul 25
đź•ą Technology Real Estate
  1. Tech companies are investing heavily in AI, with over $90 billion going into new projects in the U.S. This includes building data centers powered by reliable energy sources to stay ahead in AI.
  2. Real estate is expanding into space as companies invest in infrastructure for lunar and orbital projects. This could change the way we think about real estate and take advantage of space resources.
  3. Google has turned Android phones into a global earthquake warning system. This tool helps people get early alerts about earthquakes, improving public safety with technology we already have.

Sphere Entertainment’s New Playbook: Smaller Venues, Less Risk, Bigger Returns

Huddle Up • 26 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Sphere is shifting from one huge $2.3B flagship to smaller, cheaper venues (like a planned 6,000-seat National Harbor) to lower risk and scale the concept.
  2. The Las Vegas Sphere earns money from four pillars—immersive film-like shows, multi-night concert residencies, massive exterior advertising, and corporate/event rentals—so it has multiple revenue streams beyond ticket sales.
  3. Despite strong revenue and big-ticket events, high development and operating costs have produced losses, so smaller, less expensive venues could make the model profitable and more scalable.

Daily Chartbook #278

Daily Chartbook • 3694 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. The median U.S. asking rent in August was just below the record high set a year earlier.
  2. Commercial real estate prices are expected to decrease this cycle, ranging from -15% for apartments to -40% for office spaces.
  3. Small businesses are facing challenges with credit conditions and labor quality.

Crisis in Shanghai

The Dollar Endgame • 339 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Chinese stock markets are collapsing, showing signs of a potential fraud that's causing panic among investors.
  2. The real estate crisis in China is exacerbating the financial turmoil, leading to massive declines in stock market indexes like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component.
  3. Efforts by Chinese regulators to stabilize the markets, such as injecting funds and clamping down on illegal practices, have so far been ineffective in curbing the crisis.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. The NAR is reporting existing-home sales much earlier in the month now. That shortens the window for early projections and may lead to bigger revisions in the initial numbers.
  2. Inventory is rising across markets — Altos shows single-family active listings up about 10% year‑over‑year and regional samples show inventory up roughly 7–11%. This suggests supply may have bottomed and is returning ahead of the usual spring pickup.
  3. Sales are mixed: December had modest year‑over‑year gains but 2025 was the weakest annual sales year since 1995. In California sales edged up slightly while the statewide median price fell, pointing to softer demand and a more balanced market.

Have rents stopped rising?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Rent inflation has been much higher for lower-income families than for higher-income families, and public statistics don’t capture that difference well.
  2. Rents appear to have flattened since 2022, prompting the question of whether rents have stopped rising or are starting to correct.
  3. New home completions rose by roughly 600,000 a year after COVID, but whether that is enough to stop rent inflation depends on housing supply elasticity; rough estimates suggest about 2.5 million units a year might be needed to neutralize rent pressure.

Reading List 11/16/24

Construction Physics • 1043 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Miami tried to become a new tech hub, but it didn't get much venture capital funding, showing it hasn't really worked out.
  2. Modular construction is growing, especially for fast food restaurants, where buildings can be completed in just 24 hours.
  3. The average homebuyer in the U.S. is now 56 years old, which reflects the aging population in the country.

Crime and Covid Set up the Next Bank Crisis

cryptoeconomy • 609 implied HN points • 15 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Major retail chains closing stores due to crime and Covid may lead to a bank crisis
  2. Big cities experienced increased crime rates post-pandemic, causing people to move out
  3. Empty office spaces and store closures across major cities could significantly impact banks and financial systems

More housing supply shouldn't bring prices down.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 273 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. Adding more homes doesn't always mean lower prices. Sometimes prices stay steady or even go up despite new construction.
  2. In cities where housing supply is slow to change, rents can increase even when there are more homes being built. This may look confusing but reflects local demand and growth rates.
  3. To really lower rent costs, cities need a lot more new homes. It could take over a million extra units each year to stop rent from rising.

The Return of the Rust Belt

The New Urban Order • 359 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Cities in the Rust Belt like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Indianapolis are emerging as top housing markets for 2024, showing significant price appreciation.
  2. Contrary to popular belief, cities in the Midwest and Rust Belt are now becoming more attractive due to affordability compared to traditionally booming cities in the South and West.
  3. Factors like housing affordability, climate change, and government and private investments are influencing the resurgence of the Rust Belt cities in 2024.

The 1%

Market Sentiment • 589 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Many millionaires invest their money wisely, not just through income.
  2. The top 1% of Americans own more stocks than the other 99%, highlighting the importance of investing in equities for wealth growth.
  3. Affluent retail investors typically have a long-term risk orientation with high equity exposure and minimal panic selling tendencies.

Harvard's Water

Lewis Enterprises • 589 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Long-term institutional investing can provide a unique edge in the financial market.
  2. Establishing unconventional investment profiles can lead to great returns but might challenge conventional wisdom.
  3. Harvard's approach to investing in water resources and farmland involves complex strategies and global acquisitions.