Erdmann Housing Tracker ⢠147 implied HN points ⢠10 Feb 26
- The post-2008 mortgage crackdown and a long-weakened construction sector made housing supplyâespecially multi-familyâlargely inelastic across U.S. cities, so migration has been the main way markets equilibrate rather than local building responding to demand.
- Metro-area averages hide how shortages disproportionately hit poorer households: a uniform lot premium pushes up low-tier home prices proportionally more, displacing lower-income families and mechanically raising local average incomes, which can be mistaken for voluntary preference sorting.
- The finding that incomes correlate with house prices is empirically right but misinterpreted; the deeper story is constrained supply and selection effects, and as building capacity recovers local zoning and demand differences (and related policy choices) will again determine affordability.