The hottest Banking Substack posts right now

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Issue #145: Nubank Secures US Charter Green Light, PicPay's IPO Breaks Brazil's Four-Year Drought, And Mastercard’s Agentic Payments Move in Australia

Fintech Radar • 14 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Nubank got conditional OCC approval to form a US national bank and is building hubs in Miami, San Francisco, Northern Virginia, and the Research Triangle, signaling a fast start to US expansion. Regulators appear to be streamlining the charter process, making US entry easier for big neobanks.
  2. PicPay priced its Nasdaq IPO at the top of the range with heavy oversubscription, breaking a four-year drought of Brazilian companies listing in New York. The deal shows investors now favor fintechs that combine growth with profitability, reopening the IPO window for LatAm players.
  3. Mastercard completed authenticated agentic transactions in Australia, letting AI agents buy on users’ behalf but requiring biometric approval, which moves agentic commerce from concept to production. This makes payments networks a key trust and authentication layer if AI-driven shopping scales.

Shades of 2008?

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The commercial real estate market is facing challenges due to decreased demand for office and retail spaces, leading to increased vacancy rates.
  2. Approximately $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt in the US is set to mature within the next two years, posing risks for banks and investors.
  3. There are concerns of a commercial real estate crisis resembling the 2008 financial crisis, with warning signs evident in the US, Europe, and Asia.

If you come at the king

Wrong Side of History • 261 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
đź’ľ History Banking
  1. The Medici family in Florence rose from humble beginnings as moneylenders to become powerful rulers and art patrons during the Renaissance. They changed how people saw wealth, showing that money could bring honor.
  2. Florence was unique for its time, prioritizing trade and commerce over noble lineage, which allowed wealthy merchants to gain influence in politics. This shift in power dynamics changed the course of the city.
  3. Despite their success, the Medici had to navigate a dangerous political landscape, facing enemies and rival families, which ultimately led to intrigue and violence in their quest for power.
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Zelle Thinks I’m Pablo Escobar

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 60 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Banks and payment apps like Zelle often flag and freeze tiny transfers, treating normal gifts as suspicious and disrupting everyday use of money.
  2. The system focuses on policing ordinary users because they’re easy targets, while wealthy actors evade scrutiny through complex methods like shell companies and art deals.
  3. Keeping some control outside the banking system—cash, gold, or decentralized options like bitcoin—helps prevent an algorithm or bank from freezing your finances.

A loan offer you can’t refuse

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Banking
  1. When a company is downgraded to junk, bank loan availability falls sharply — about a 10% drop in the year after and roughly 30% cumulatively over five years.
  2. That sudden loss of bank financing pushes distressed CEOs and CFOs to seek alternatives, and the chance of mafia infiltration rises by roughly 5% after a downgrade.
  3. Financial distress is a key catalyst for organized‑crime infiltration because banks pull back when firms need money most, leaving a financing gap crime groups can exploit.

Issue #147: MrBeast Buys a Bank, Goldman Sachs Gives AI Agents Real Jobs, And Coinbase Wants Every AI Agent to Have a Wallet

Fintech Radar • 6 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Creators are starting to buy and run real financial assets, using massive audiences to scale fintech products and distribution quickly.
  2. Banks and fintechs are deploying autonomous AI agents to handle high-volume, rules-based work like accounting, onboarding, and AML, which reduces the need for additional headcount.
  3. Infrastructure for agentic money is being built fast — agent-specific wallets, machine-to-machine payment protocols, and programmable guardrails let AI agents hold and spend funds safely.

Send in Your Burning Questions!

Newcomer • 255 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
đź’Ľ Business Banking
  1. Readers can submit burning questions for a reader mailbag in 2024
  2. The world of venture capital and startups has seen major changes in the new year
  3. Options given for submitting questions include leaving a comment, tweeting, or using a Google form

Why Did The BOJ Move Despite Conflicting Evidence on Wages and Prices?

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The Bank of Japan's decision to make monetary policy changes despite unclear wage and price trends was questioned.
  2. There was no immediate financial market pressure on the BOJ to act, as rates were stable and not pushing past set levels.
  3. Conflicting data on wage trends created uncertainty, with various databases showing contradictory evidence, making predictions difficult.

How Banks Fail

Confronting the Future • 511 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Banks can fail due to bad assets or a run on liabilities, which can often happen together.
  2. Be cautious with asset management, especially in rising interest rate environments and when extending in duration.
  3. Hot deposits can create volatility if depositors suddenly withdraw, impacting a bank's ability to meet obligations.

Breach of Trust: Decoding the US Banking Crisis of 2023

Musings on Markets • 839 implied HN points • 06 May 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The recent banking crisis in the US started with the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which was unexpected and quick, leading to a series of other bank failures. This raises concerns about whether the crisis will impact the larger economy like the 2008 crisis did.
  2. Understanding what makes a bank strong or weak is essential. Key factors include how sticky their deposits are, the amount of equity they have to absorb losses, and the quality of their loan portfolios.
  3. The market's reaction to the crisis has been mixed, with larger banks holding up better than regional ones. However, the crisis may push more consolidation within the banking industry, affecting competition and overall bank profitability.

Stablecoin Wildcat-Bank Roulette: The Genius Act Gambles with America’s Money

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 292 implied HN points • 21 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Congress is considering allowing companies to create their own currencies through stablecoins, which could lead to financial chaos like what happened in the past.
  2. There are concerns that regulators may struggle to manage the many stablecoins that could flood the market, posing a risk to the economy.
  3. Instead of issuing more currencies, a better approach might be to adopt practices from the European Union to focus on reducing fees and helping consumers without overloading regulators.

Stuffing the Coffers

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Regulatory changes post-2008 require banks to hold more US Treasuries. However, banks are running out of space and time.
  2. The Fed made an exemption of Treasury bonds from the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) to boost lending and stabilize markets during the COVID-19 crisis.
  3. The SLR calculates a bank's solvency by dividing Tier 1 Capital against assets. Adjustments during crises help banks manage potential losses better.

Good (Bad) Banks, Good (Bad) Investments: An Investing Perspective

Musings on Markets • 819 implied HN points • 07 May 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Good banks tend to have stickier deposits, which help them maintain stability. Buying a good bank at a high price might actually lead to losses compared to buying a bad one at a low price.
  2. Valuing banks is tricky because their cash flows and risks are different from other businesses. Instead of using traditional methods, one should often use a dividend discount model or a free cash flow to equity model.
  3. The price of a bank's stock can differ significantly from its actual value. Understanding both the intrinsic value and market price is key to making smart investment decisions.

Long Take: Is Apple's Goldman-powered 4.15% yield account the fintech apocalypse?

The Fintech Blueprint • 491 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Apple has launched a Savings account with a 4.15% yield through Goldman Sachs, creating a disruptive financial product.
  2. Goldman Sachs plays a significant role in the product's distribution, benefiting from Apple's massive consumer base.
  3. Other big tech companies like Google, PayPal, and Ant Financial have also made inroads into financial services, showcasing a trend towards tech-powered banking.

Issue #146: PayPal Gets a New CEO, Palmer Luckey's Bank Gets Its Charter, And Experian To Buy Own Up

Fintech Radar • 8 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Experian is buying an AI mortgage-shopping platform to move beyond credit reporting and directly steer consumers through mortgage origination, turning its data advantage into a distribution channel for lenders.
  2. A Palmer Luckey–backed neobank won a US national banking charter in under eight months, signaling that regulators are approving new charters much faster and opening a path for more fintechs to become banks.
  3. PayPal replaced its CEO amid board complaints about its pace of change, exposing a deeper identity problem where the company needs a clear strategic direction rather than just new leadership.

4 US banks crash in 2 months: Banking crisis explained by economist Michael Hudson

Geopolitical Economy Report • 458 implied HN points • 07 May 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Economist Michael Hudson discusses the collapse of four US banks in two months, including First Republic Bank being taken over by JP Morgan Chase, highlighting the deep ties between government regulators and bankers.
  2. The collapse of banks like First Republic Bank can be attributed to high ratios of uninsured deposits and risky long-term mortgages, demonstrating systemic issues in the banking sector.
  3. The banking crisis is a result of the government's bailout policies, with large banks like JP Morgan Chase being given favorable deals despite being rated as the riskiest, leading to the undue burden on the economy and the potential for a deep financial collapse.

Asian Financial Crisis Redux

The Dollar Endgame • 199 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The Chinese yuan is weakening, reaching its lowest level against the dollar in a while. China taking measures like reducing the five-year loan prime rate to stimulate credit demand and revive the property market.
  2. Economists were surprised by the significant decrease in the reference rate by China, indicating the most substantial cut since its introduction in 2019. China is facing challenges from a property crisis, falling consumer confidence, and increasing deflationary pressures.
  3. China's central bank has been injecting liquidity into the financial system consistently through measures like reducing the reserve-requirement ratio for lenders and implementing regulations to support the yuan. The recent net injection of 1 billion yuan aims to maintain balanced liquidity post the Lunar New Year holiday.

Trump Cards

Net Interest • 18 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Credit card interest rates are much higher than on other loans, and revolving balances generate outsized profits for banks while supporting a large share of consumer spending.
  2. Proposals to cap rates (for example at 10%) would lower costs for borrowers but risk making card products unprofitable, which could reduce credit access and consumer spending.
  3. Past regulations have led lenders to reprice products and raise spreads, so caps or fee limits can trigger unintended shifts in rates, fees, or product availability.

US bank bailout benefited billionaires, exposing corruption: 'I understand why Americans are angry'

Geopolitical Economy Report • 418 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Banking
  1. Before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, it lobbied to remove regulations and then received a bailout, benefiting billionaires. Americans are angry at the corruption.
  2. US banks collapsed in March 2023, leading to massive bailouts for wealthy depositors, showing a pattern of blatant corruption and regulatory capture in Washington.
  3. The banking crisis is far from over as unrealized losses on investment securities have reached over $600 billion, indicating a potential larger collapse ahead due to rising market interest rates.

Bonds are the Ultimate Shitcoin

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Bonds are facing significant challenges with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and inflation, causing a major downturn in the bond market.
  2. Bonds are crucial in the financial system and act as a form of money, affecting various sectors like banking and exposing risks in durations and interest rate movements.
  3. The bond market's current struggles are indicative of larger economic issues, with potential consequences for inflation, debt, and decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Banking & Money

Life in the 21st Century • 412 implied HN points • 27 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Money is created based on trust and is a political invention.
  2. Banks create money by lending it out, not by storing it in vaults.
  3. The banking system faces challenges due to massive debt and reliance on central control.

QUANDO LE BANCHE SCHIANTANO

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 412 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. When you deposit money in a bank, it's no longer yours but a loan to the bank.
  2. Savings are often stored as euros in banks, accumulated with effort through generations.
  3. It's crucial to understand the implications of leaving money in banks and how it impacts ownership.

a horror story in four words

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 393 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
đź’Ľ Business Banking
  1. The concept of 'change of valuation basis' in business can indicate stress and financial strain
  2. Valuing buildings can vary depending on the purpose, whether it's for selling, lending, or immediate sale
  3. Understanding 'change of valuation basis' sheds light on liquidity, solvency, and the socially constructed nature of financial reality

CFPB Allocates $46 Million To Synapse/Evolve Victims In First-Ever Fintech Bailout

Fintech Business Weekly • 29 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The CFPB has allocated about $46.25 million from its Civil Penalty Fund to compensate Synapse/Evolve customers, marking a notable fintech bailout. It’s unclear if that amount covers the larger reported shortfall and victims may still wait a long time to get paid.
  2. Evolve Bank & Trust received unqualified audit opinions for 2021–2024 from Crowe and KPMG despite known reconciliation problems and missing end-user funds. That gap between audits and operational failures raises questions about audit scope and whether material issues were disclosed.
  3. Regulators are actively policing and reshaping crypto and fintech: the FTC treated a $186 million crypto security breach as an unfair practice while other agencies pursue deregulatory and pro-crypto moves like charter applications and rulemaking. These developments show rising enforcement alongside efforts to accommodate crypto innovation.

Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. A large wave of foreclosures is unlikely because lending standards are solid and most homeowners have substantial equity, so distressed sales shouldn’t trigger cascading price declines.
  2. Delinquencies and foreclosure activity have increased modestly year‑over‑year (30/60/90‑day delinquencies and foreclosure starts are up), but overall levels remain historically low.
  3. The recent rise is concentrated in certain loan types (notably FHA and resumed VA activity) and REO dollar values have climbed, so expect a modest uptick in foreclosures rather than a systemic crisis.

Mark It Zero, Dude

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 62 implied HN points • 10 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. BlackRock drastically changed the value of its loans to Renovo from full value to zero very quickly. This shows how fast things can change in the financial markets.
  2. Many companies are hiding their bad investments and avoiding the truth about their financial situations. They often delay admitting losses until the last possible moment.
  3. Renovo's bankruptcy is not an isolated event; it reveals deeper problems in the private credit market. There are many companies facing similar issues, indicating a potential bigger crisis ahead.

I SOLDI IN BANCA

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 176 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. People have lost their life savings trusting banks - it's not a safe place for all your money.
  2. The 2008 financial crisis led to a wave of bank failures, and in 2023 banks are again under stress.
  3. It's important to understand the three fundamental truths of the modern banking system before depositing money in a bank.

Why 3 US banks collapsed in 1 week: Economist Michael Hudson explains

Geopolitical Economy Report • 358 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Economist Michael Hudson discussed the collapse of US banks, noting similarities to the 2008 financial crisis and the reliance on government bailouts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's handling of interest rates and bailouts in response to bank collapses indicates systemic issues in the financial sector.
  3. Derivatives, specifically highly leveraged bets, are looming as a significant risk for the banking sector and could trigger the next big crash.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 221 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The money market is moving from a period of cash abundance to more careful funding conditions. This could affect how money flows in the next few months.
  2. A big change is expected once the debt limit is resolved, which could lead to a surge in bills. This might reduce the reserves banks have available.
  3. Foreign investors may be less interested in U.S. Treasury securities because other local bonds offer better returns. This could impact future U.S. debt sales.

irritating arithmetic

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 176 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Marginal costs and risks don't add up to the total, causing problems in decision-making.
  2. Regulatory capital requirements are not usually binding and can be misleading in banking.
  3. Banks often rely on regulatory handbooks instead of thorough internal risk assessments.

UnblockFi

DeFi Education • 339 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
đź”® Crypto Banking
  1. BlockFi has officially confirmed its chapter 11 bankruptcy plan. They will be winding down operations under the control of creditors.
  2. Celsius's bankruptcy process is nearing completion, as creditors have agreed to the necessary steps.
  3. These updates highlight the ongoing issues within the cryptocurrency industry, especially related to financial management and customer trust.

The Dying Banks and the Singularity

The Dollar Endgame • 339 implied HN points • 12 May 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. There is a financial crisis brewing with banks collapsing and facing liquidity issues, leading to a rapid withdrawal of funds from the system.
  2. Banks like Silicon Valley Bank have made risky investments with high-end clients, creating vulnerabilities in the financial sector.
  3. The Federal Reserve's policies have inadvertently caused a drain on traditional banks, pushing money into shadow banks and triggering a potential chain of bank failures.

Not a Lehman Moment

Diane Francis • 639 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) wasn't as dramatic as Lehman Brothers in 2008, but it did show flaws in the banking system. Unlike Lehman, SVB's issues came from poor management rather than widespread systemic problems.
  2. Government reactions were swift this time, which helped contain the fallout. They extended deposit insurance to all SVB depositors to prevent panic, but this crisis highlighted the need for stricter banking regulations.
  3. The financial market is in turmoil again, and more banks might struggle due to rising interest rates. While this isn't a repeat of 2008, it serves as a reminder that there need to be safeguards in place to protect the economy.