The hottest Decision-making Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

Bone Shard Collection #1

Living Fossils • 12 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
🎭️ Culture Decision-making
  1. Satiation explains why people stop in the moment, but long-term motivation is shaped by expectations, positive feedback, and getting used to outcomes, so success often raises the bar instead of ending desire.
  2. Price not only buys measurable quality but also sets social expectations and norms, so paying more gives you both better service and greater standing to demand higher standards.
  3. Wisdom usually comes late because what is "wise" depends on context and changing tradeoffs, so evolution didn’t hardwire one perfect rule and people learn over time which rules fit different situations.

People Frameworks

Fish Food for Thought • 36 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Assume people are competent and mean well; instead of blaming, ask what made success hard and focus on clarifying expectations.
  2. Behavior usually has a backstory — look for constraints, patterns, and incentives rather than jumping to character judgments, and trust by default while verifying when needed.
  3. Treat failures as data for learning, not moral proof; ask whether a choice makes sense given the person’s information and constraints and fix systems or incentives accordingly.

How To Tame Your Impulsive Behaviour And Make Healthier Decisions

Insight Axis • 632 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Decision-making
  1. Resisting urges leads to increased suffering because of the pain x resistance equation. It's better to embrace a state of 'couldness' rather than fighting impulses.
  2. Changing your identity to instill good habits may not work well due to the element of restriction that still leads to some suffering. The act of choosing is more impactful.
  3. Simply 'surfing the urge' by sitting with discomfort may not completely eliminate resistance. Embracing 'couldness' with near-zero resistance can lead to better decision-making and empowerment.

On strategy, good and bad (mostly bad)

Simplicity is SOTA • 131 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Good strategy is a clear, simple response to an important challenge: diagnose the core problem, pick a guiding policy, and specify coherent actions that people can actually implement.
  2. Bad strategy hides behind fluff, vague goals, or infeasible objectives and often fails because leaders avoid hard choices or rely on templates and positive thinking instead of confronting obstacles.
  3. You improve strategic skill by developing deep domain knowledge and design taste, practicing judgment (avoid myopia, question assumptions, and write down your reasoning), and honestly testing strong alternatives and pre-mortems.

The Queen of all Virtues 👑

The Commonplace • 1277 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
⛪ Faith & Spirituality Decision-making
  1. Prudence is the queen of all virtues because it guides our actions and helps us make good decisions.
  2. The four cardinal virtues are prudence, fortitude, temperance, and justice, providing a foundation for a moral life.
  3. Cultivating prudence involves thinking, making a choice, and taking action, leading to wise decision-making in everyday life.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

TBM 271: Diagnosing Your Company's Strategy Problem

The Beautiful Mess • 568 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Companies struggle with strategy when people fail to share good information. Everyone needs to agree on the facts about customers and competitors to make smart decisions.
  2. It's important for everyone in a company to understand what game they're playing and what options they have. When there's confusion about this, it leads to disagreement and missed opportunities.
  3. Making decisions can be tough when options are limited. Companies often hold back from making bold moves because they fear the risks of change, so they keep trying many things without committing to one direction.

How on earth do you replace Jürgen Klopp?

Grace on Football • 648 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Decision-making
  1. Liverpool's journey to find structural stability after Klopp's era began with a turbulent start due to a mistaken committee approach.
  2. The success of Liverpool's recent transfers is attributed to a clear structure under Klopp's direction with Edwards as a key figure.
  3. As Liverpool faces the departure of key personnel like Edwards and Schmadtke, the focus is now on finding a new sporting director to seamlessly fit into the existing system.

My Intellectual Heroes, Part 3

Life Since the Baby Boom • 1383 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Daniel Kahneman showed that people often don’t act like the rational thinkers we expect. He studied how we make decisions and found many biases that affect our judgment.
  2. He worked with Amos Tversky and together they explored how our minds trick us. Their ideas laid the foundation for behavioral economics, changing how we think about choices.
  3. Kahneman's book 'Thinking Fast and Slow' explains our two types of thinking: fast reactions and slower, more careful thinking. Understanding this can help us make better decisions.

Stop Shipping Dashboards That Don’t Matter

SeattleDataGuy’s Newsletter • 541 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Before creating a dashboard, ask what decisions it will help make. It’s important that the data leads to real actions, not just interesting numbers.
  2. Clarify what success looks like for the stakeholder. Knowing their goals can help you make a dashboard that meets their needs instead of guessing.
  3. After delivering a dashboard, follow up with users to ensure they understand and are using it. This helps prevent wasted effort and keeps the dashboard relevant.

Analytics Team: Strategic Partner or Service Org?

Elena's Growth Scoop • 1139 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Having a data-driven culture is important for making informed decisions and connecting actions to business outcomes.
  2. In many companies, data is not well managed and can lead to frustration when trying to implement a data-driven culture too soon.
  3. Striking a balance and ensuring data accuracy is crucial before pushing for a data-driven culture.

Principles

Nabeel S. Qureshi • 1506 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Don't be afraid to ask for what you want. If you can handle rejection, you can open up new opportunities for yourself.
  2. Move quickly and take action. Procrastination slows you down and can make tasks seem harder than they really are.
  3. Surround yourself with positive, energetic people. They can inspire you and help you achieve your goals.

David Friedman vs. Michael Huemer

In My Tribe • 546 implied HN points • 05 Jul 25
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. It's important to think critically and understand arguments for yourself, instead of just trusting experts.
  2. Picking the right expert to trust is hard because different experts can have different opinions on the same issue.
  3. When choosing an expert, look for someone who thinks in a way that makes sense to you and can clearly explain their views.

How I Will Measure My Life

Software Design: Tidy First? • 1259 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Not everything in life can be measured or compared. Some experiences, like special family dinners or random acts of kindness, are unique and important in ways that numbers can't capture.
  2. Money can create options for us, but not all money is equally valuable for choices. Having enough savings can open up more possibilities, but beyond a point, additional money may not significantly change your options.
  3. Freetime is valuable because it allows you to choose how you spend your time. More freetime means more opportunities to pursue interests, but sometimes a little extra isn't as important once you reach a comfortable level.

Notes on Reading: Who Gets What and Why (Part 1)

Nonsense on Stilts • 79 implied HN points • 13 Jul 24
🚌 Education Decision-making
  1. Matching markets are about people choosing each other rather than just buying and selling. This can include markets for jobs, schools, and even dating.
  2. In these markets, people's choices depend on each other's preferences, which can lead to complex situations. For example, if one person wants to team up with another, their choice might rely on who that second person prefers.
  3. People often lie about their preferences in matching markets to seem more appealing. This can lead to a situation where no one believes what others say, but it's a common behavior to improve chances of getting good matches.

Revisiting the Iraq War

In My Tribe • 516 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. Cheney often bypassed bureaucracy to get the answers he wanted, which upset some people in the system. This approach can help leaders get clearer information instead of relying on filtered reports.
  2. The decision to invade Iraq wasn't made directly by any single person; instead, it was a gradual result of many different opinions and actions, much like an ant colony finding food.
  3. The lack of clear discussion and planning about the invasion led to confusion about goals and methods, which made it hard to understand the risks involved. This shows how disorganized decision-making can have serious consequences.

unitary presidentialism as a collective cognition design flaw

Brain Pizza • 595 implied HN points • 14 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. Unitary presidential systems focus power in one person, making them prone to too much pressure and stress. This can lead to poor decision-making and inefficiency.
  2. Having just one person making important choices can create problems because they can't handle all the information alone. It’s better to share decisions among many people.
  3. When a single leader has too much responsibility, it can cause delays and mistakes. Spreading the workload can help improve decision-making and outcomes.

Issue #3 - Pulling Back the Data Ecosystem Curtain

The Data Ecosystem • 219 implied HN points • 28 Apr 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Data in a business starts with understanding its goals and needs. The success of data efforts relies on how well it aligns with what the business wants to achieve.
  2. The data lifecycle turns business needs into actionable insights. It involves sourcing data, organizing it, and finally consuming it to gain meaningful insights that support decision-making.
  3. Surrounding factors like market trends and organizational issues can impact how data is used. It's important to recognize these influences to address challenges and keep data initiatives on track.

The Map is not the Territory

do clouds feel vertigo? • 59 implied HN points • 20 Jul 24
🚌 Education Decision-making
  1. Understanding the difference between perception and reality is important. Different people have various ways to see the world, and it helps to have multiple perspectives.
  2. Mental models are valuable thinking tools that can help us make sense of complex situations. Organizing these models by subject can guide our decision-making.
  3. Learning about complex adaptive systems can provide a solid foundation for understanding how different parts of a system interact. It's a good starting point for anyone new to the topic.

Futarchy's fundamental flaw

DYNOMIGHT INTERNET NEWSLETTER • 546 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. Futarchy uses prediction markets to make decisions, but it has a basic flaw. It relies on conditional probabilities that don't show cause and effect, which means it can't actually provide reliable information for making choices.
  2. Just because high vitamin D levels are linked to lower death rates, it doesn't mean vitamin D causes those lower rates. Other factors like being healthier or wealthier often play a role. The same idea applies to Futarchy: just seeing a correlation isn’t enough to make decisions.
  3. While conditional prediction markets can give useful insights, they should be treated like any other statistic—helpful but not the only factor to consider. We need to recognize their limits and look for better methods to understand cause and effect.

When Overwhelmed, Make a List of Questions

Push to Prod • 39 implied HN points • 05 Aug 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. When you feel overwhelmed, writing down your questions can help clarify your thoughts. It's a simple way to break down a complex problem.
  2. Answering even one question can give you more confidence and direction, leading to better decision-making. It’s a helpful way to gather information and make progress.
  3. This technique isn't just for work; it can be useful in everyday situations too, like before meetings with accountants or lawyers. Taking the time to write questions helps you feel more prepared.

No More Mr. Nice Guy

Fish Food for Thought • 37 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Being “nice” can become avoidance: trying to spare individual discomfort by postponing hard choices ends up harming the team and shifts unfair costs onto others.
  2. Psychological safety isn’t the same as comfort: real safety comes from clear expectations, honest feedback, and timely decisions, even when conversations are uncomfortable.
  3. Mature leadership balances empathy with decisiveness: caring often looks like setting standards, delivering candid feedback, and sometimes making the hard calls so the system can function.

What Healthy Boards Look Like

DruGroup • 159 implied HN points • 07 May 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Healthy boards focus on governance, avoiding micromanagement. They concentrate on big-picture decisions rather than getting caught up in daily operations.
  2. Good boards prioritize setting strategic direction over just directing actions. They work on long-term goals instead of getting bogged down in immediate tasks.
  3. Instead of panicking during crises, successful boards take time to think things through. They focus on understanding the situation for lasting solutions rather than quick fixes.

The easiest person to fool

Tolu’s Newsletter • 11 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Question your default beliefs and the views you pick up from the people and place around you; decide for yourself what to accept.
  2. Don’t let what you want to be true drive your conclusions — check if your beliefs make logical sense, consider who benefits from a claim, and look for reliable sources and supporting implications.
  3. Write down your beliefs and revisit them so you can spot mistakes, admit when you’re wrong, and update your views over time.

Are You Doing Product Management or Bullshit Management?

Untrapping Product Teams • 687 implied HN points • 10 May 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Companies often misunderstand the role of product management, focusing more on pleasing stakeholders than solving end-users' problems.
  2. Bullshit management happens when product managers get stuck in tasks unrelated to actual product management, like gathering requirements from stakeholders or attending numerous meetings.
  3. To escape bullshit management, focus on evidence-based decision-making, empower teams to make decisions, prioritize learning over planning, and resist anti-patterns that hinder product management success.

Survival, Cash Flow, & Options

Software Design: Tidy First? • 331 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Decision-making
  1. Sometimes the best design choice is not to design anything at all. It's important to know when to hold back on creating features.
  2. Understanding the trade between features and options can help in making better decisions in software development. Prioritizing options can lead to long-term benefits.
  3. Reading insightful books like 'Ergodicity' can shift your perspective on important concepts in software and economics. Gaining new insights can help you better navigate complex problems.

Play Long Games

Eliot Peper • 373 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Long-term projects require a different way of thinking.
  2. Playing long games is the only way to reach for the stars.
  3. Choosing to play either short games or long games when confronted with a problem.

TBM 331: Strategy & Decisiveness

The Beautiful Mess • 859 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Being strategic involves making choices, but not all strategies are about being decisive. Sometimes, being flexible and open to options can be just as important.
  2. Real-world strategy often faces messy challenges. It's not just about having a perfect plan; it's about navigating the unpredictable nature of business and making practical decisions.
  3. It's okay to admit uncertainty and avoid over-pressuring teams for quick decisions. Some trade-offs and juggling acts are just part of the process.

The Discipline of Seeing Clearly

Kathy PM • 21 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Good leadership means noticing and naming what isn’t working instead of smoothing it over; that clarity helps teams move faster and builds trust.
  2. Growth language gets misused when it excuses poor outcomes. True growth requires precise learning and concrete updates based on real results.
  3. Self-deception feels easier but makes leadership harder because people stop sharing real signals. Using your own tools and judgment honestly is a discipline that starts real improvement.

Decision-making

Lessons • 550 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Different situations require different styles of decision-making.
  2. Organizations benefit from being methodical in selecting decision-making styles.
  3. Having a structured decision-making system can improve efficiency and clarity.

Is Dave Ramsey right?

Economic Forces • 18 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💰 Finance Decision-making
  1. Simple rules and mental buckets exist because making perfect decisions about every dollar is costly. Heuristics cut cognitive effort and often produce good enough outcomes.
  2. Institutions like prices, brands, and cultural norms compress information and lower the mental cost of choices, letting people compare options quickly instead of doing detailed calculations.
  3. Competition and real budget constraints discipline behavior so many heuristics survive by being survivable, not perfect, but attention and memory limits can still create systematic, predictable mistakes in some contexts.

People Spend Too Much Time On Decisions with Equally Satisfying Outcomes

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 984 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. People often waste time making decisions that don't have a big difference in the outcome. It's okay to choose quickly when the results are similar.
  2. Analysis paralysis can happen when someone overthinks decisions. Simplifying the process can help avoid this trap.
  3. Making a choice and moving forward can lead to more satisfaction than worrying too much about what could have been done differently. Taking action is usually better than hesitating.

The Best Investing Advice

The Generalist • 760 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Decision-making
  1. Investing is all about finding great companies, not just good deals. Focus on what makes a company truly outstanding.
  2. Diversify not just across different industries, but also over time. Don't rush into investments; think long-term and consider market changes.
  3. Startups should offer something unique that stands out. Instead of competing with existing options, create a choice that reshapes the conversation.

Smarter thinking in everyday life

Brain Pizza • 662 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🏥 Health & Wellness Decision-making
  1. Understanding how your brain works helps you deal with daily problems better. This means recognizing your own thinking patterns can improve your decision-making.
  2. By knowing common biases and habits, you can improve how you think and behave. This helps you make better choices and reach your goals more effectively.
  3. Small changes in your thinking can lead to big improvements in life. Using these insights helps you shape your actions and make smarter decisions daily.