The hottest Economic Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

The True Jobs Numbers

COVID Reason • 495 implied HN points • 05 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Job Market
  1. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects employment data from two main sources: one from employers about job numbers and another from households about overall employment. These two surveys can show different job growth trends.
  2. Recent job growth numbers claimed a large increase, but much of this was due to seasonal adjustments, masking significant job losses in the private sector.
  3. Most of the jobs added recently were actually government jobs. When looking at unadjusted data, there were a lot more government job increases than private sector jobs.

The US Is Not Broke

Doomberg • 6730 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Fiscal Responsibility Investment strategy Debt Management
  1. The US has a very high level of public debt, but the situation is not as hopeless as it sounds. There's still a lot of flexibility in managing this debt.
  2. Experts suggest the US might be in a state of 'fiscal dominance,' meaning traditional monetary policies might not work effectively anymore. This makes managing the economy tricky.
  3. The current administration has experience with managing debt and can take steps to improve the financial situation. The President has options to deal with the debt and is not completely stuck.

What Xi Believes

ChinaTalk • 919 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Ideology International relations Modernization Economic Policy
  1. Xi Jinping believes Chinese modernization should focus on people's needs rather than just economic growth. He criticizes Western models for causing inequality and promotes a version that fits China's unique culture and history.
  2. The Chinese Communist Party is essential for Xi's vision of modernization. He insists that without the Party's leadership, China cannot succeed and stresses the need for discipline within the Party.
  3. Struggle is a key theme for Xi, who sees it as vital for the Party's survival and China's progress. He encourages a proactive approach to risks, stating that avoiding challenges can lead to decline.

Everyone Is Wrong About the President's Economic Impact

Sumit's Investment Takes • 99 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Inflation Unemployment Policy Analysis
  1. There isn't just one number that shows how good or bad the economy is. You can look at things like unemployment, inflation, and GDP, but they all tell different stories.
  2. The president's actions don’t usually have an immediate effect on the economy. Many factors that affect the economy are outside their control, like market trends and global events.
  3. To really understand a president's impact on the economy, you should look at long-term policies instead of short-term data. Also, things like immigration and international relations can play a big role.

How does a 63% premium sound?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Mergers & Acquisitions Corporate Finance Economic Policy
  1. Prosus is buying Just Eat for $4.3 billion, which is a huge 63% more than what it was worth before the deal. This shows a big jump in value but raises some questions among investors.
  2. Just Eat's growth has slowed down recently, with a slight drop in global revenue. This makes some people think the deal might not be a good bargain for Prosus.
  3. The Christian Democratic Union in Germany has won a recent election and plans to lower taxes and cut regulations. They're also focusing on energy policies and digital innovation, which could reshape Germany's economy.
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What Trump gets wrong about US power

Nonzero Newsletter • 384 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy International relations Economic Policy Environmental Policy AI safety
  1. Trump's approach to tariffs risks damaging long-term US power. Countries are already looking to trade more with others instead of relying solely on the US.
  2. The era of American economic dominance is fading as other nations form stronger trade ties. This change means the US may lose influence if it doesn't adapt.
  3. Competition between AI companies may lead to less thorough testing of new models. This rush could create safety issues with powerful AI technologies becoming available too quickly.

Brace Yourselves: The Jobs Market Is Teetering on the Edge

COVID Reason • 475 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market Economic Policy Employment Trends Federal Reserve Consumer confidence
  1. Hiring is way down and fewer jobs are being created. This shows that companies are worried about the future.
  2. People are not leaving their jobs as much because they feel the job market is risky. They prefer to stay where they are to avoid unemployment.
  3. The Federal Reserve is taking actions like cutting rates, but these steps won't fix the deeper problems in the job market that stem from lower demand for goods and services.

Only Socialism Can Fix This (Gestures to The American Hellscape)

JoeWrote • 139 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Economic Policy Labor Rights Socialism Capitalism
  1. America needs more than just minor repairs; it needs a complete rethink of how power and wealth are distributed. Simple fixes won't stop the rise of aggressive capitalism.
  2. The New Deal helped many but didn't end the dangers of capitalism, which still threaten social programs like Medicare and Social Security.
  3. We must not only push for useful social policies but also ensure that the systems allowing wealth concentration are dismantled to protect those policies for the future.

How the oligarchy shrank America’s middle class (Why American capitalism is so rotten, Part 8)

Robert Reich • 19752 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Unions Economic Policy Income Inequality Corporate Governance
  1. The virtuous cycle of rising wages with productivity gains broke in the late 1970s, leading to stagnant incomes for most American workers.
  2. Corporate governance shifted in the 1980s, with a focus on maximizing shareholder returns, leading to massive job cuts and weakened worker bargaining power.
  3. Decline in union membership since the late 1970s has contributed to shrinking middle class as unions effectively negotiated better wages and benefits for workers.

🗽✨ Yes, more skilled immigration is good for America

Faster, Please! • 1279 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economic Policy Social media Political alliances Public Opinion
  1. Skilled immigration is important for America's growth and economy. It helps bring talented people who can contribute to various sectors.
  2. There is a debate about immigration policies that should focus on the economic benefits of allowing skilled workers from different countries.
  3. Understanding the basics of economics is vital in discussions about immigration, as it helps people realize how it can positively impact society.

Chartbook 332 The radicalization of Trump's GOP and the realignment of the American electorate.

Chartbook • 2517 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voter Behavior Political Ideology Economic Policy
  1. Trump's return to power shows how voters are upset with the current leaders, wanting change after COVID and inflation. Many incumbents around the world have struggled recently, making his win less surprising.
  2. The political landscape in America is shifting, with Trump appealing more to working-class voters while wealthier, college-educated individuals are increasingly voting for Democrats. This shift highlights growing divides between different social and economic groups.
  3. Despite emphasizing issues like inequality and social justice, Democrats are losing touch with less affluent voters who are facing economic struggles. Ironically, many lower-income Americans who supported Trump might be hurt by his policies.

How minimum prices for ride-sharing can be counterproductive

DYNOMIGHT INTERNET NEWSLETTER • 937 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor Rights Government intervention
  1. When minimum prices are set for things like rides, it can actually make drivers wait around more without getting paid, which ends up lowering how often they drive.
  2. Even if the pay seems higher, drivers may not earn more overall because they spend less time actually working when demand drops due to higher prices.
  3. In the end, customers often pay more and get fewer rides, which doesn't help anyone in the long run; it's like paying drivers to do nothing while traffic increases.

No, this isn't normal

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 463 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Economic Policy Urban Development Social Issues Political Economy
  1. Many people argue that housing costs have always been high, but this isn't accurate. In the past, housing prices were much more stable compared to the rapid increases we've seen in the last few decades.
  2. High housing costs today are not just due to demand. There's a complex web of factors that includes limited housing supply and economic changes, which makes it harder for people, especially those with lower incomes, to afford homes.
  3. The impact of rising rent prices isn't felt equally. While wealthier areas may see rents that align with income growth, poorer communities face much higher rent increases, making it challenging for families to maintain their living situations.

Why Bidenomics will get Joe another term and give the Democrats control over Congress

Robert Reich • 24391 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Legislation Political parties Labor Unions
  1. Bidenomics is proving to be successful in boosting the economy and lowering inflation.
  2. The Biden administration is focused on restructuring the economy to benefit the bottom 90 percent.
  3. Bidenomics could lead to shared prosperity, potentially securing another term for Biden and control of Congress for Democrats.

Is Rare Earth China's Trump Card?

Taipology • 35 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics China relations Economic Policy Supply Chain
  1. China has a strong hold on rare earth elements, which are vital for making many high-tech products. Without them, supply chains could face major disruptions.
  2. Unlike previous instances, such as the 2010 crisis with Japan, China's current restrictions on these elements are stricter and more effectively enforced.
  3. Creating a new supply chain for rare earths in the US would be hard and take a lot of time and money, making it risky for businesses to invest without a clear plan.

Top Links 612 How global inflation came and went. The economic fallout from the coup in Korea and the revolution in Bangladesh & big trouble in Sturgis.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Global Economy Inflation Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Global inflation has seen significant changes, impacting economies worldwide.
  2. Political events, like coups and revolutions, can lead to serious economic fallout.
  3. Understanding these events helps us see how connected the world's economies really are.

Measuring Redistribution

David Friedman’s Substack • 224 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Taxation Income Inequality Welfare state Economic Policy
  1. Measuring how much wealth is redistributed in society is complicated because people's incomes can change a lot over their lifetime. A person might be considered poor at one point and rich at another, which makes it hard to classify them in studies.
  2. Figuring out who actually pays taxes can be tricky. For example, corporate taxes affect not just shareholders but also employees and customers, so it’s hard to pin down who truly bears the burden of these taxes.
  3. The increase in income inequality might come from factors outside of government policies. Things like changes in job value over time or how people marry within their social class can affect overall wealth distribution.

Why Is Africa Poor?

Journal of Free Black Thought • 59 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💼 Business Economic Policy Entrepreneurship Trade Poverty Corruption
  1. Economic freedom is crucial for Africa's growth. When people can easily start businesses and trade, they can improve their lives and communities.
  2. Many African countries face heavy regulations that make it hard to start businesses. This creates barriers and leads to corruption, which makes economic freedom worse.
  3. Better trade connections and fewer rules can help Africa prosper. Countries like Mauritius show that when barriers are removed, economies can thrive and people can become wealthier.

Top links 609 Deindustrialization as historic trend. Why CHIPS investments go to places with the right workforce. Falling birth rates and the Trieste model of mental health.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor Issues Demographics Public Health Mental health
  1. Deindustrialization is a major trend in history, affecting many regions and economies. This means industries are moving or shutting down, which changes job markets and communities.
  2. The success of CHIPS investments relies on having the right kind of workforce in specific areas. This highlights the importance of education and skill development for economic growth.
  3. Falling birth rates are a growing concern, and the Trieste model is an interesting approach to mental health. It shows that innovative practices can impact social issues positively.

Empty Chambers

Doomberg • 5101 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Military Affairs Economic Policy Resource Management
  1. Tajikistan's economy relies heavily on remittances from migrant workers in Russia, making the relationship between the two countries very important.
  2. China has invested a lot in Tajikistan and benefits from its natural resources, showing how connected these countries are through trade.
  3. Recent export restrictions by China on critical minerals like antimony can affect the US, especially in military and technology sectors, increasing concerns in the Pentagon.

Top Links 616 Global corporate debt surge. Chicago's fiscal blues. Depoliticizing the railways of the Raj.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Policy Global Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Global corporate debt is rising sharply, which might affect the economy. This shows companies are borrowing a lot more money than before.
  2. Chicago is facing serious financial problems. The city's budget issues could impact its services and operations.
  3. There is a movement to make the railways in India less political. This could help improve efficiency and service for train travelers.

Ambiguity is worse than risk

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Market behavior Economic Policy
  1. Ambiguity can be more stressful than known risks. When people face uncertain situations about their jobs or income, they tend to invest less in risky assets.
  2. Financial insecurity leads to lower risk-taking in investments. People who feel financially unstable often shy away from stocks, choosing safer options like bonds.
  3. On a larger scale, countries with high financial insecurity may save less, which can worsen their economic situation. Improving financial security could help boost savings and reduce deficits.

Would Lenin have approved of the IMF?

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 1328 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Monetary Systems Global Economy Financial Institutions
  1. The IMF has a specific role in ensuring countries maintain fiscal discipline and avoid excessive borrowing. This role is seen as necessary for economic stability, regardless of whether the system is capitalist or socialist.
  2. Critics often misunderstand the IMF's core mission, which is about discipline and accountability in fiscal matters. Austerity measures taken by the IMF are not inherently bad; they are meant to promote responsible economic behavior.
  3. If Lenin were alive today, he might actually support the IMF for its emphasis on fiscal responsibility and international trade management. He believed in the need for structured economic governance, similar to what the IMF provides.

Biden should run on a message of abundance

Noahpinion • 16764 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Campaign Economic Policy Climate Policy Energy Policy
  1. Biden should focus on a message of abundance in his campaign, highlighting the positive state of America and his policies that have contributed to it.
  2. Biden's energy policies, including embracing cheap solar and batteries, have brought abundance and climate stability, making them a crucial part of his message.
  3. Biden should run on his economic record, emphasizing the success of Bidenomics and the booming economy during his presidency compared to historical data.

Dispatches from the Group Chats, Vol 5

Erik Torenberg's Thoughts • 273 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Discourse Immigration Government Accountability Cultural Issues Economic Policy
  1. Wildfires in Los Angeles have been worsened by poor government management and environmental policies. This has led to high winds and many causes for concern, including homeless encampments and inadequate fire support.
  2. There's a noticeable shift in political power dynamics in LA, due to recent catastrophic events and state-level insurance failures. This could force local governments to become more accountable after poor disaster responses.
  3. The global landscape is changing, as political sentiments shift further to the right. This is influenced by major events like the pandemic and societal upheavals, raising questions about contemporary American identity and culture.

⏩💳 How faster growth can offset America's debt problem. Really.

Faster, Please! • 913 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Debt Management Fiscal Responsibility Political strategy Government spending
  1. Faster economic growth can help reduce America's huge debt. If the economy grows by 3-5% each year, it can balance out the debt problems.
  2. Reforming big entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare is essential. Doing so can both lower future spending and make these programs work better.
  3. While some people are skeptical about economic growth solving debt issues, it shouldn't be completely dismissed. A stronger economy can really aid in cutting down debt over time.

Chartbook 338 You don’t exit the force field, you alter your position within it.

Chartbook • 700 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Nationalism Global Trade Political Response Market Reaction
  1. You can't just leave a difficult situation; you have to find a better way to deal with it. This means finding a new position or approach within the existing challenges.
  2. Different countries react differently to major events, like Brexit or Trump's policies, reflecting their unique economic power roles. For instance, when news breaks, some currencies soar while others crash based on local reactions.
  3. The way countries negotiate and manage their economic rules greatly impacts reform efforts. A left-leaning government in the U.S. or elsewhere would face specific challenges shaped by these dynamics.

Trump47: The Second Coming of The Donald

Fisted by Foucault • 213 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Immigration Policy Foreign Policy Economic Policy Trump administration
  1. A major focus will be on reducing the Deep State influence, as it can undermine Trump's achievements. The aim is to place loyal supporters in key positions right from the start.
  2. Immigration reform is crucial for Trump's agenda, especially regarding deportations of illegal immigrants. Balancing the views of his supporters on legal migration will be a big challenge.
  3. Foreign policy will shift to a more transactional approach, ensuring allies contribute more. This might lead to the US taking a tougher stance on NATO and calling for more support against rivals like China.

🏫 A DARPA for education

Faster, Please! • 1370 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Education & Policy Government reform Political Commentary Public Policy Economic Policy
  1. The U.S. Department of Education may need significant changes, focusing more on innovation and effective solutions rather than just maintaining the status quo. A proposed model inspired by DARPA could help create practical educational tools and practices.
  2. Shifting key functions of the Department of Education, like student aid and education research, to other agencies could improve efficiency. This would allow states to have more control over their education systems and tailor solutions to their specific needs.
  3. Using advancements in technology, especially artificial intelligence, could revolutionize education. A dedicated research organization for education could lead to important developments that enhance learning and address gaps created by recent challenges, like the pandemic.

Japan isn't quite "back", but it has a fighting chance

Noahpinion • 11000 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economic Policy Defense Immigration Industrial Policy Corporate culture
  1. Japan's stock market is rallying due to foreign investment, but the real economy is struggling with recession and weak manufacturing and exports.
  2. Japan is increasing defense spending and bringing in foreign workers to address labor shortages, however, concerns remain about assimilation and potential backlash.
  3. Japan needs to focus on reclaiming its position in key industries like electronics, developing a software industry and EVs, and reforming its corporate culture to boost economic growth.

How Young Canadians Lost Faith in Justin Trudeau

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 751 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Voter trends Public Opinion Economic Policy
  1. Young Canadians are feeling financial stress, even with good jobs, due to high costs of living and taxes. They're finding it harder to buy homes and plan for the future.
  2. There's a noticeable shift in young voters moving away from Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party towards the Conservative Party. Many feel that their economic worries aren't being addressed.
  3. Issues like high housing costs and inflation are making young people rethink their political loyalties. They are prioritizing financial stability over previously supported values.

Chartbook 328 An economics Nobel for Biden's neocon moment. On AJR's "Whig" philosophy of history.

Chartbook • 1473 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy International relations Political Economy Social justice Political History
  1. The recent Nobel Prize in economics was awarded to three economists who stressed the importance of societal institutions in achieving economic prosperity. Their work highlights how fairness and rights can drive economic growth.
  2. The Biden administration supports this view, aligning their economic strategies with the theories of these Nobel winners. They believe government policies can help bridge gaps like inequality and support innovation.
  3. The traditional ideas of free-market economics are becoming less popular, and the current trend leans towards more government intervention in the economy. This shift reflects a broader skepticism about past economic policies.

🆙 A pro-progress Trump agenda: what's realistic?

Faster, Please! • 1279 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trump administration AI Regulation Economic Policy
  1. Establishing a Moon base could offer valuable resources and opportunities for economic development. It can also strengthen national security by ensuring access to those resources.
  2. We should let AI develop without heavy regulations so it can flourish like the internet did. Striking a balance between monitoring safety and allowing growth is key.
  3. A focused national policy on AI is important to prevent mixed regulations across states, promoting American leadership in this rapidly evolving field.

The Coming Labor War

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 99 implied HN points • 04 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Rights Economic Policy Workplace Issues Unions Social justice
  1. Workers in many fields, including tech, are facing pay cuts and longer workdays due to changes like returning to the office. This shift can feel like a 20% decrease in salary when you consider added costs and time.
  2. Many employers believe they don't need the human workforce because of advancements in AI and automation. But this belief ignores the reality that people are essential for gathering data and driving the economy.
  3. There is a growing movement among workers, including office employees, to demand better wages and working conditions. As more people realize they are part of the labor force, we might see significant changes in workers' rights in the near future.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 358 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

Kemi Badenoch’s Fight for the UK—and the West

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 459 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Leadership Identity politics Party Politics Economic Policy Immigration
  1. Kemi Badenoch made history as the first black woman to lead the UK's Conservative Party, showcasing her unique background and experiences.
  2. Growing up in Nigeria during tough economic times helped shape her views on wealth, community, and the importance of hard work to maintain society's values.
  3. Badenoch's journey to conservatism was influenced by her early jobs and educational experiences, fueling her desire to promote ambition and potential in others.

Homeownership isn't that risky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Homeownership Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Homeownership is often seen as risky, but this idea is misunderstood. Many homes don't actually lose value significantly over time, and the risks are often overstated.
  2. Lower-priced homes can be a good investment, especially for families with lower incomes. The rental income from these homes can outweigh the risks involved.
  3. The financial difficulties in the post-2008 housing market were largely driven by government policies, not the inherent risks of owning a home. For many, owning a home can still be a stable investment over time.

RealPage, Collusion, and Rents: Part 4

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Housing Market Regulatory issues Market Competition Political Commentary
  1. The software used by landlords to set rents has been blamed for rising rental costs. However, it's only responsible for a small fraction of the rent increases compared to other factors like low housing supply.
  2. Many cities are reacting to rising rents by trying to legislate against the software, even though it has a low market share in the most expensive areas. This means other bigger issues are being ignored.
  3. People need to reassess their economic beliefs and focus on more significant causes of high rents, rather than getting fixated on algorithms and large corporations, which may not be the main problem.

The Women Who Support Trump, DeSantis' Insanity Just Got Worse, Fewer Kids Going to College, The Right Boycotting Chick-fil-A, a Cop’s First 45 Words Tell You If You're in Danger, Johnny Mathis Sings

kareem • 6210 implied HN points • 02 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Women's Rights Sexual Assault Economic Policy Political Ideology
  1. Some women who support Trump overlook his sexual misconduct allegations.
  2. The reasons given for women supporting Trump may lack logical reasoning.
  3. Supporting a leader solely for economic reasons, despite moral concerns, can have significant consequences.

The Internal Republican Fight Over Immigration Isn’t Really About Racism

Public • 247 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Republican party Economic Policy Political Conflict Social Issues
  1. Critics of both low-skilled and high-skilled immigration often focus on economic concerns, not racism. They worry about how it affects wages and jobs for American workers.
  2. Many conservatives believe opposing mass immigration makes them targets of accusations about racism, even when their reasons are economic.
  3. The conflict within the Republican Party about immigration policy shows the challenge of balancing different views while keeping a united front.