The hottest Economic Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Everyone is Now Middle Class

The Carousel • 128 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Political Ideology Social Dynamics Cultural critique
  1. The middle class has changed significantly, and now everyone seems to fall under this category. This shift means that even those who were once considered lower class are now being seen as middle class, leading to a divide in perspectives.
  2. There's a focus on a work ethic that pressures everyone to 'pull themselves up by their bootstraps.' This mentality suggests that hard work alone can lead to success, ignoring systemic issues that affect different classes.
  3. The elites appear to be distancing themselves from genuine leadership roles. Instead, they often mimic the middle class while forgetting their responsibilities to help those below them, which can create tension and inequality.

How we could return to the productivity growth of the 1990s

Noahpinion • 4705 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
💼 Business Productivity Economic Policy Investment Labor Market Monetary Policy
  1. Productivity growth is crucial for controlling inflation, maintaining a stable economy, and improving living standards.
  2. To boost productivity growth, a combination of macroeconomic factors like full employment, investment incentives, and stable supply-side conditions is essential.
  3. Three key factors that fostered productivity growth in the 1990s were full employment, high fixed investment, and stable supply with low inflation; replicating these conditions today would require strategic policy interventions.

Revisiting the Thucydides Trap

Gideon's Substack • 42 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International relations Military Strategy Geopolitics Foreign Policy Economic Policy
  1. America's current strategy against China may be pushing us closer to conflict, even if it makes logical sense. Each action taken against China can lead to more tension and responses from them.
  2. The idea of America being the top power is becoming less certain. Other countries might start to prefer working with China, which could weaken America's alliances and influence.
  3. Instead of trying to stay the dominant power, America might benefit from fostering relationships based on shared interests. This could lead to a more complex but stable global balance, instead of constant competition.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-06 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 130 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Economic Policy Social Issues Public Opinion Cultural Commentary
  1. Educational approaches should blend economic theories with historical context. This helps students grasp how past events shape current economic systems.
  2. To tackle gender disparities in birth rates, changing perceptions about motherhood and fatherhood is essential. Men need to support women more in their roles both at work and home.
  3. Inflation isn't solely linked to government spending; the Federal Reserve plays a significant role in managing it. Digital and global economic shifts complicate how we analyze these financial factors.

Trump Weaponizing Trade, Is An Act Of War, Under International Law.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 36 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economic Policy International relations Political Commentary Trump administration
  1. Trade tactics can be seen as acts of war according to international law. This means that economic strategies might escalate tensions between nations.
  2. Many believe that the US has lost control of its trade policies, leading to a decline in American-made goods and increased economic struggles for workers.
  3. To improve the economy, investing in American workers and lowering costs like rent could help increase consumer buying power and create a more stable economic environment.
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The Unmaking of a Modern Economy: Brexit, Austerity, and Britain's Great Retraction

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 376 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Macroeconomics Global Economy Financial Crisis Growth Strategies
  1. Britain's economy has struggled since 2008, missing out on a lot of potential growth. If things had gone differently, people would be much better off today.
  2. Policies like austerity and Brexit have hurt the economy, but they are not the only reasons for the decline. There have been many mistakes made over the years.
  3. The long-term effects of economic shocks, like the Great Recession, can have lasting impacts on growth. This shows how important it is to be careful with economic policies.

⚡ What will power the future US economy?

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy Policy Economic Policy Environmental Policy
  1. Encouraging clean energy is important for the future economy. A good way to support this is through a carbon tax and removing unnecessary regulations.
  2. There's a proposal to end some subsidies for alternative fuels, while introducing a carbon tax that would go up over time. This could help make cleaner energy more competitive.
  3. It's tough to predict the best mix of energy sources years into the future. Relying on experts to decide specific energy goals may not be the best approach.

✨ Daron Acemoglu: too much faith in government, too little in markets (and AI)

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor Market Technology impact Education reform Government intervention
  1. Daron Acemoglu identified three major challenges for the American economy: aging population, artificial intelligence, and deglobalization. These issues can disrupt the job market and create labor shortages.
  2. Investing in worker skills and adaptability is crucial to meet these challenges. This includes better training and support for all workers, not just focusing on traditional manufacturing jobs.
  3. Acemoglu suggests that the government should promote technologies that help workers rather than just automate jobs. This involves creating new federal programs to enhance worker productivity and prepare for future labor needs.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #22

Faster, Please! • 639 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy Policy Economic Policy Political trends Environmental Issues Technology Policy
  1. A semiconductor plant in Arizona is performing better than one in Taiwan, which is good news for US manufacturing growth. This means the US is making strides in producing important tech products domestically.
  2. Construction productivity is struggling, showing negative growth for decades. Long approval times and strict regulations are hurting the industry's efficiency.
  3. More Democrats are starting to support nuclear power as a cleaner energy source. This shift is important for addressing climate change and meeting energy demands, as even major tech companies back nuclear projects.

Free Money

Points And Figures • 799 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government funding Economic Policy Political Ideologies Income Inequality Education reform
  1. Many people wrongly believe that money from the government is free and doesn't have really costs associated with it. Government money actually comes from taxpayers, and there's no such thing as a free lunch.
  2. Loans and financial incentives, like student loan forgiveness, can create bad economic expectations and lead to bigger problems down the road. When the government gives money without a clear plan to pay it back, it burdens future generations.
  3. There are better solutions for improving education and the economy, like school choice and reducing government involvement in funding. Allowing the market to dictate provides more opportunities and encourages personal responsibility.

Migration and the sovereign firm

Gray Mirror • 189 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Political theory National Identity Economic Policy Sovereignty
  1. The relationship between a state and its citizens can be viewed in terms of ownership, where the state should safeguard and nurture its people as valuable assets. This perspective contrasts with the modern belief that the state exists to serve its citizens.
  2. Free movement of labor may negatively impact local human capital by creating job competition that reduces job quality for some citizens, affecting their value and contribution to society.
  3. Mass migration policies are often motivated by corporate interests and political goals rather than a genuine need to develop local talent or improve society, leading to ineffective and exploitative outcomes.

How Would Fearmongers and Doomers Invest in The Stock Market?

OK Doomer • 151 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Policy Financial advice Wealth Management
  1. Many financial influencers spread fear about economic crashes but offer vague advice, like hoarding cash or buying during dips. It's not very helpful or specific.
  2. These influencers often blame the government for economic issues while ignoring their own role in creating panic. They don't really care about everyday people's financial well-being.
  3. Overall, the advice given is more about generating fear and attention rather than providing real, sound financial guidance. It’s like eating unhealthy protein bars instead of nutritious food.

The Bonds And The Stock Market

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Policy Interest Rates Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market has experienced various crashes in the past, but today there are better systems in place to prevent a major crash like in 1987. It's still possible to see market dips, but the overall structure is stronger now.
  2. Interest rates on government bonds are rising, which could impact the stock market negatively if rates reach certain levels. Keeping an eye on these rates is important for understanding market trends.
  3. Government spending is a concern, and both political parties aren't talking about reducing it. If spending continues unchecked, it could lead to serious economic issues in the future.

The Power of the Charlatans; Maurizio Serra on Malaparte; Bidenomics; Zoë Hu on Andrew Tate

Unpopular Front • 38 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Influencers Biographies Economic Policy Historical Analysis
  1. There are many charlatans today who seem to gain respect, often promoting false ideas and oversimplified solutions. It's important to be aware of who we listen to.
  2. Grete de Francesco wrote a significant book about the dangers of charlatans and how they influence public opinion. Her insights show that charlatans take advantage of people's confusion during times of rapid change.
  3. De Francesco’s life story is also a tragedy; she was a talented journalist who was murdered in a concentration camp. Her work deserves to be remembered and reissued.

Beijing's Bubble Bursts Part 3

Diane Francis • 1338 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Economic Policy Debt crisis Regional conflicts
  1. China's Belt and Road Initiative, which aimed to help poorer countries, has led many into deep debt instead of prosperity. This has turned some of these nations into vassal states rather than providing mutual benefits.
  2. Many countries that participated in BRI are facing serious economic issues and corruption scandals tied to Chinese investments. Projects often fail or are poorly managed, leaving these nations in worse situations.
  3. China's own economy is struggling, with declining exports and a high number of non-performing loans. The situation suggests that both China and its debt-laden partners are in precarious positions.

The Great MAGA Immigration Meltdown

Unpopular Front • 93 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economic Policy Nationalism Racism
  1. The H-1B visa program ties workers to their jobs, making it hard for them to leave and seek better opportunities, which some compare to indentured servitude.
  2. The current debate about immigration among Trump supporters isn't just about policy; it's linked to deeper beliefs about race and who should get priority in the workforce.
  3. There are two contrasting views on how to approach immigration: one sees it as a way to foster fair economic competition and freedom, while the other focuses on grabbing a select group of skilled workers based on racialized criteria.

Why Create a Dept. of Gov Efficiency: an Econ Crash Course

The Save Journalism Committee • 309 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Efficiency National Debt Economic Policy Fiscal Responsibility Public Spending
  1. America's current debt situation is very concerning and lacks sustainable solutions. The debt is projected to keep rising if nothing changes. People need to be aware that just managing the debt isn't enough.
  2. Creating a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could help address inefficiencies in government spending. This could potentially free up funds to invest in areas that would promote economic growth.
  3. Governments can use debt to invest in the future, but they must do it wisely. If loans aren't used effectively, it can lead to rising inflation and more problems down the line.

Am I a Democrat or a Republican?

The Novelleist • 836 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Ideology Bipartisanship Public Policy Federalism Economic Policy
  1. It's okay to mix ideas from both Democrats and Republicans. You can believe in a strong economy while also caring about worker rights and environmental issues.
  2. Labels like 'Democrat' or 'Republican' can limit how we think about solutions to problems. Focusing on what we want to achieve together can help us find common ground.
  3. Instead of being stuck in party lines, we should talk about real solutions that improve people's lives. Working together is better than arguing over which side is right.

Top Links 537 TIGER indices looking grim. South Sudan's misery. The 1990s revisited and Soldier's Paradise.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Global Markets Data Analysis International relations
  1. The TIGER indices are showing a negative trend, indicating economic challenges ahead. This suggests that global economic recovery may be slower than expected.
  2. South Sudan is facing significant difficulties, highlighting ongoing humanitarian issues. These problems need urgent attention to improve the situation for its people.
  3. There are connections being made to the 1990s, suggesting that some current geopolitical situations may resemble past conflicts. This raises concerns about the repetition of history in today's world.

Housing affordability is a tremendous crisis for young men

Jeff Giesea • 519 implied HN points • 13 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Economic Policy Social Issues Cultural Issues Political Activism
  1. Housing affordability is a big problem for young men, especially in their 20s and 30s. It's harder for them to buy homes than it was before, with fewer places being affordable.
  2. This issue affects not just men, but it seems to hit young men the hardest. Many feel left out of the chance for a stable future with family and home ownership.
  3. Young men can make their voices heard by pushing for changes in housing policies. Working together to demand more affordable housing can help improve their chances of owning a home.

Top Links 538 The rise of options. "Little pipes" and "little fires". THE banana skirt & the Apple-Nike connection.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Commodities Stock Options
  1. The rise of options trading is becoming a big trend in the market. It's important to understand how this affects investments.
  2. The phrase 'little pipes and little fires' suggests small things can have big impacts. It's a reminder that minor issues can escalate quickly.
  3. There’s an interesting connection between brands like Apple and Nike, showing how different industries can influence each other.

Bust Sanctions Busters

Diane Francis • 619 implied HN points • 02 May 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Sanctions Foreign Policy Economic Policy Legislation International relations
  1. Russia is using loopholes to avoid sanctions, making it harder to punish their economy. The West needs to tighten these sanctions and go after those helping Russia evade them.
  2. The U.S. is starting to take action against foreign banks that help Russia, focusing on countries like China and Turkey. This is a step in the right direction, but more needs to be done.
  3. There is a push to confiscate $300 billion in Russian assets frozen after the invasion. Europe needs to come together to support these efforts to apply more pressure on Putin.

Deficit-to-GDP Ratio Near World War II Levels, CBO Finds

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Debt Management Budgeting Economic Policy Government spending Fiscal Responsibility
  1. The U.S. government is facing huge deficits, with the deficit expected to be around 6.2% of GDP in 2025. This level hasn't been seen since World War II.
  2. Federal spending is outpacing revenue, primarily due to rising costs for programs like Social Security and Medicare. This is leading to increasing government debt.
  3. Despite the seriousness of the debt problem, it hardly gets discussed in politics, meaning there's little pressure to change how spending is managed.

Saturday Commentary and Review #180

Fisted by Foucault • 199 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Populism Elections Foreign Policy Social Issues Economic Policy
  1. Populism is on the rise due to many people feeling left behind by the system. This is especially true for the middle class, who are struggling to maintain their living standards amid economic changes.
  2. The failures of liberal democracy have led to a distrust of elites and institutions. Events like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic showed that many people's lives are worsening, making them more receptive to populist ideas.
  3. Some political movements have broken away from traditional left-right ideologies. In many cases, both sides have ignored the working class, which has opened the door for new political expressions and movements.

January 2024 Homebuilder Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economic Policy
  1. The housing market is influenced by various factors like interest rates and supply shortages. These changes can affect home prices and availability for buyers.
  2. Homebuilder activity can indicate overall market health. A rise in new builds might suggest confidence in the economy.
  3. Monitoring trends in housing can help investors and buyers make better decisions. Staying informed about the market can lead to smarter choices.

Erdmann Housing Tracker 2024 in Review (July to December)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Housing Market Investment strategy Economic Policy Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Rising rents are the main cause behind increasing home price-to-rent ratios. This happens when supply is restricted, leading to higher land rents that inflate home values.
  2. Cities with high costs usually face housing shortages because of strict building regulations. They aren't necessarily more desirable but are limited in housing availability.
  3. The mortgage market has changed, favoring higher credit score borrowers, which has reduced access for many potential homeowners. This has led to inflated home prices and keeps housing out of reach for lower-income families.

LECTURE NOTES: 5.2. Neoliberalism & After

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 215 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Economic Policy Social justice
  1. The Neoliberal Order focused on free markets and individual freedom but often failed to create a fair society, leading to fear and inequality. This has caused people to look for new solutions and ideas.
  2. People are starting to care more about their local communities and how policies affect their immediate surroundings. There's a desire for changes that help create opportunities right where they are, instead of relying on moving to find better chances.
  3. There is a rising demand for leaders who truly represent and fight for the common people's interests. Many feel that the current system favors the rich, and they want someone to disrupt that status quo.

Important Editorial in Pirate Wires

From the New World • 32 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics AI Policy Economic Policy Political Influence Election Strategy International relations
  1. The new administration will focus on promoting American leadership in AI. They believe that America should take the lead in advancing technology instead of holding it back.
  2. Foreign partnerships in AI should align with American standards. The U.S. will not share access to its technology unless it benefits American interests.
  3. All collaborations must aim to enhance AI research and availability. The goal is to boost innovation rather than impose restrictions.

The Money Market Blindspot: Part II

Concoda • 313 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Liquidity management Debt Management Federal Reserve Economic Policy
  1. A debt ceiling issue is causing uncertainty in money markets, which could lead to financial instability. This situation means the government is trying to work around limits, but it won't last long.
  2. With the government's checking account set to change drastically soon, we might see a mix of cash coming in from taxes and cash going out from spending. This could make the borrowing costs change a lot.
  3. As the Fed keeps trying to manage its balance, any unexpected spikes in interest rates could disrupt their plans. This means traders should be ready for some unexpected events in the money market.

How the German government collapsed and what will happen now

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 261 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Political parties Coalitions Economic Policy
  1. The German government, known as the traffic light coalition, fell apart when Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister. This left the coalition partners, the SPD and the Greens, struggling to move forward.
  2. The coalition had ambitious plans but ran out of money due to legal issues with their budget strategy. This led to rising energy prices and a loss of public support.
  3. Upcoming elections could change the political landscape, with the CDU likely to gain power. However, they face challenges in forming a stable government due to their refusal to work with the AfD.

Top Links 546 Childcare as infrastructure. Why Larry Summers thinks blended finance is BS and how all that is solid burst into flames.

Chartbook • 243 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Childcare Finance Economic Policy Infrastructure Public Policy
  1. Childcare should be seen as important infrastructure for the economy. It's essential for supporting working families and boosting economic growth.
  2. Larry Summers is critical of blended finance, arguing that it doesn't really solve financial problems and can lead to more issues.
  3. There's a sense that many established systems are failing or breaking down. It's a call to rethink how things work in society.

Republicans Should Aim for Canada-Size Cuts

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Spending Economic Policy Fiscal Responsibility Political Reform
  1. Canada did well economically in the 1990s after making big cuts to spending and focusing on privatization. This shows that similar actions could help stabilize a country's finances.
  2. In the 1990s, both Canada and the U.S. managed to cut spending successfully. However, Canada stuck to its cuts longer than the U.S. did, which helped their economy grow.
  3. To avoid a financial crisis, the U.S. government needs to consider making substantial and sustained cuts to spending, similar to what Canada achieved. A goal of reducing spending by a few percentage points of GDP might help stabilize the economy.

That Tariff Shit Sure Was Pointless

I Might Be Wrong • 17 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tariffs Trade policy Political Commentary Economic Policy
  1. Recent tariffs between the US and Canada seemed pointless and were lifted without gaining anything significant. This shows how negotiations can sometimes yield very little.
  2. Trump's approach to tariffs might harm America's economic credibility in the long run. It's like he's playing a game but doesn't understand the rules properly.
  3. Congress can step in and clarify the rules about tariffs to prevent future chaos. They should take control to keep things stable and effective.

The Legacy of Bidenomics: Overspending, Overtaxing, Overregulating

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Government spending Tax reform Regulations
  1. Biden's economic policies have led to a rise in national debt and inflation. This has made everyday life harder for many people, especially those with lower incomes.
  2. High taxes and strict regulations are making it tough for businesses to grow and for people to find work. These policies discourage investment and can lead to lower productivity.
  3. To improve the economy, there needs to be less government spending, lower taxes, and fewer regulations. This can help create a more favorable environment for growth and job creation.

Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Investment Strategies Market Analysis Economic Policy Real Estate
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to a lack of supply rather than too much demand. Cities are struggling to provide enough homes for their growing populations.
  2. Homeownership continues to decline because of demographic shifts and a severe housing shortage. Many people are forced to share living spaces instead of owning their own homes.
  3. There is a belief that adding more housing will lead to lower prices, but it often results in the opposite effect. More housing can create a sense of instability in the market, making things feel worse for current residents.

My most conservative beliefs: Price controls suck and Federal deficit matters

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Insurance Market Regulation
  1. Price controls can lead to less supply. When prices are kept low, it can make it hard for businesses to operate, leading to fewer products or services available.
  2. Regulating insurance prices can be problematic. It's essential to find a balance, as too much control can push companies out of the market, resulting in fewer options for consumers.
  3. The federal deficit is an important issue. Keeping track of government spending and debt is crucial for a healthy economy, and ignoring it can lead to severe long-term consequences.

The Perverse Incentives Depreciating Your House

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Consumer behavior Investment Strategies
  1. Home prices are rising fast, making it hard for many people to think they'll ever own one. It's more of a struggle for the average person to afford a home nowadays.
  2. Builders often focus on making homes quickly and cheaply instead of making them durable and long-lasting. This means new homes might not hold their value as well as older ones.
  3. Homebuyers are not paying as much attention to quality. They’re more interested in lower prices, which can lead to issues later as newer homes may need repairs sooner.