The hottest Economic Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Reading Unlock

SatPost by Trung Phan • 254 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Investing Startups Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Entrepreneurs like Joe Coulombe, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk were inspired by reading single articles to start successful ventures.
  2. Reading diverse and random content can help build a unique insight stack when combined with other skills.
  3. Reading and continuous learning are crucial for developing insights that lead to successful ventures or investments.

The Best Trades "Often Take A Little More Patience" To Develop

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 11 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Trading Market Analysis Financial advice Economic Trends
  1. Good trades often need more time and patience to develop, so it's smart to be patient in the market. Don't rush into decisions just because you feel pressured.
  2. The semiconductor sector is very strong right now, particularly companies like Nvidia, but it's important to be cautious because not all companies in this sector are doing well.
  3. Keep in mind that trading can be risky and it's always best to consult a financial advisor before making big decisions. It's okay to seek advice, but ultimately, you're responsible for your choices.

Volatility "Can Be Beneficial": Trading The Election Results

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Trading Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Volatility
  1. Volatility in the market can actually provide good trading opportunities. When things are uncertain, smart traders can find chances to profit.
  2. Listening to expert traders can be really helpful, especially those who are honest about their successes and failures. It helps build trust and understand the market better.
  3. Election results often change market dynamics, creating unique situations for investors. Keeping track of these changes can be essential for making informed decisions.

The VC Corner #1

The VC Corner • 79 implied HN points • 24 Nov 23
💼 Business Venture Capital Investing Startups Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. European tech startups are experiencing a lot of downrounds, which are when companies' valuations decrease. This is the highest level of such downrounds since 2014.
  2. The VC Corner provides important news and analysis for both seasoned investors and those new to venture capital. It aims to help readers stay informed about the latest trends and updates.
  3. The newsletter offers a 7-day free trial, allowing people to explore its archives and get a sense of the content before subscribing. This is a great way to see if the information is useful for you.
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What 10 well-known investors are thinking about in 2023.

Jon’s Newsletter • 199 implied HN points • 08 Jan 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Billionaires Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Many famous investors are worried about the current economy. They believe inflation is a big concern and that central banks may need to keep raising interest rates, which could hurt the stock market.
  2. Some investors, like Cathie Wood, are still optimistic about growth stocks and technology. They think these areas will see big growth in the future despite recent struggles.
  3. Warren Buffett advises regular investors to stay calm during market changes. He believes investing in an S&P 500 ETF is a smart move for long-term growth.

Can tech stocks keep climbing?

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 26 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends
  1. Tech stocks have seen impressive growth this year, with companies like Nvidia and Meta seeing gains over 180%. Many believe this trend could continue if interest rates stabilize.
  2. While some analysts believe tech stocks might keep rising, they also warn about high valuations, making them potentially risky investments.
  3. Analyst forecasts suggest varied potential for growth among tech stocks, with many still seeing positive gains ahead, despite concerns about valuation.

Issue #137: Klarna’s U.S. IPO Plans, Nubank Hits 100M Users, And PayPal Gets Collaborative

Fintech Radar • 6 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Fintech Investing Banking Cryptocurrency Economic Trends
  1. Klarna has filed for an IPO in the U.S., hoping to attract more investors. This comes after difficult years, but they're now showing profitability.
  2. Nubank has grown to over 100 million customers in Brazil, showing how digital banks can successfully compete with traditional ones. They've expanded their services beyond just credit cards.
  3. PayPal has introduced a new feature for group money pooling, making it easier for users to manage shared expenses. This move highlights how big companies can absorb features that startups were trying to create.

January 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Supply and Demand Inflation
  1. Rising rents are causing rising home prices in the US housing market, with a greater than 1:1 pace.
  2. Density of housing is crucial in impacting housing prices, especially in cities like New York City, where dense neighborhoods are affected by supply shortages and migration trends.
  3. The impact of COVID-19 on housing trends varies across cities, with some areas experiencing temporary relief in housing costs for dense neighborhoods while other cities like New York face complexities in supply conditions.

European equities won’t provide safety if US bubble bursts

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Equities Economic Trends Risk management
  1. If the US stock market crashes, it can impact European markets too. Investors shouldn't expect safety by moving their money to Europe.
  2. Currently, US stocks are very expensive, which raises concerns about a potential market correction.
  3. A downturn in the US could be more harmful to Europe than past market crashes, like the tech bubble in 2000.

Walk Your Talk

do clouds feel vertigo? • 1 HN point • 31 Aug 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Strategies Behavioral Finance Risk management
  1. Navigating emotions in finance is tough. Just like a story, the market has ups and downs, often driven by fear and greed.
  2. Understanding market patterns can help you make better choices. Key events, like earnings reports, can change how stocks perform quickly.
  3. It's smart to think about who benefits from market movements. Often, the loudest voices can mislead you, so keep a clear perspective.

Covidnomics

Diane Francis • 359 implied HN points • 12 Aug 21
💼 Business Remote work Labor Market Economic Trends Workplace culture Public Health
  1. The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped how we work. More people are preferring remote work, leading to changes in workplaces and housing preferences.
  2. Many workers are quitting their jobs to prioritize safety and better work-life balance. This trend is forcing companies to adapt by offering flexible work options.
  3. Labor has gained more power, pushing for better pay and working conditions. This has led to higher wages and changes in benefits across various industries.

New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Data Economic Trends Housing supply Home Sales
  1. In January 2024, new home sales were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year.
  2. The median new home price has dropped by 15% from its peak, indicating potential shifts in the real estate market.
  3. Inventory levels for new homes show variations, with completed homes for sale at a level close to the norm, while homes under construction are high but below previous peak levels.

In tech we trust?

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market has seen a drop recently, with tech stocks struggling more than others. Investors are worried about rising interest rates and potential recession.
  2. Despite the downturn, some experts believe investing in tech can lead to growth in the long run. Companies in tech can adapt and thrive even during tough economic times.
  3. Certain tech stocks, like Apple and Microsoft, are still seen as good investments due to their potential for continued growth and strong market positions.

The return of tech stocks.

Jon’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 05 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economic Trends Business Analysis
  1. Tech stocks are making a comeback in 2023, with big gains in the NASDAQ 100 index.
  2. Many tech companies are focusing on cost-cutting and efficiency to improve their performance despite challenges like layoffs.
  3. The excitement around AI, especially with developments like ChatGPT, is driving investor interest and boosting stock prices in the tech sector.

Scattered Thoughts on Employment and Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💼 Business Employment Construction Labor Market Economic Trends Housing Market
  1. Positive labor market reports with sustainable wage growth and projected real growth
  2. Residential construction employment is growing, productivity concerns, and insights on housing market functionality
  3. Analysis of employment flows provides insights into economic trends and potential indicators for labor market breakdown

Clouded Judgement 10.25.24 - Misaligned Incentives

Clouded Judgement • 13 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investment Strategies Financial Markets Economic Trends
  1. Venture capitalists are changing how they work with founders. Instead of focusing on big wins together, some are now just trying to make quick money from management fees.
  2. Founders should be careful about raising too much money too early. Getting larger sums from investors can often come with higher valuations, which can hurt the business long-term.
  3. It's important for founders to know how many other companies their investors are supporting. If an investor has too many companies, they might not have enough time to help yours succeed.

Big tech stocks are surging. Why is that bearish?

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Valuation Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Big tech stocks have seen huge gains, primarily driving the rise of the S&P 500 this year. This doesn't mean the overall market is in trouble, though.
  2. Experts believe that the concentration of these tech stocks doesn't affect future market performance significantly, so there’s no need to worry.
  3. Many stocks outside of tech are doing well, and a lot of analysts expect major tech companies to keep rising in value over the next year.

The US labor market is much weaker than we have been told

Global Markets Investor • 7 HN points • 15 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The US labor market is weaker than portrayed in headlines, with data revisions indicating lower job growth than initially reported.
  2. There has been a rise in part-time jobs and multiple jobholders, while full-time jobs have decreased, presenting a concerning trend for the US economy.
  3. Analysis of native vs foreign-born employment shows a significant difference, indicating that job creation in the US has been largely driven by immigrants in recent years.

Retirement

We're Gonna Get Those Bastards • 8 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Retirement Investing Personal Finance Social Security Economic Trends
  1. Having a plan for retirement is important to avoid boredom. Rather than just watching TV all day, think about activities you enjoy or new hobbies you want to pursue.
  2. Working longer can lead to better financial stability in retirement. Delaying Social Security benefits can significantly increase the amount you receive later on.
  3. To have a fulfilling retirement, it’s crucial to keep engaging with the world. Experiences and social interactions can provide inspiration for creative pursuits like writing.

The Fed Can't, And Won't, Nail The Dismount

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Trends
  1. Predicting market movements can be difficult, and it's important to acknowledge when predictions are not accurate.
  2. Even if past predictions have been off, it's necessary to stick to the underlying thesis and reasons for the forecasts.
  3. Quick excitement about economic factors like inflation or rate cuts may not always be warranted; it's important to take a more balanced perspective.

Clouded Judgement 12.13.24 - Beat and No Raise?

Clouded Judgement • 4 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Market Analysis Software Stock Valuation Economic Trends
  1. Software companies generally performed as expected, with very little change in earnings estimates for 2024. Most stock prices did not move much either.
  2. Recently, there has been a notable increase in software valuation multiples, driven by stability in the economy and expectations of future AI revenue.
  3. Investors are feeling hopeful about tech investments, as they believe upcoming growth in IT budgets and AI could lead to better earnings next year.

Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets • 39 implied HN points • 19 Jan 22
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Economic Trends Risk management Market Analysis
  1. US stocks did really well in 2021, continuing a strong climb from the previous year. This makes investors feel good, but it also raises concerns about whether stocks are becoming too expensive.
  2. Different sectors performed differently; energy and real estate were the winners in 2021, unlike the tech stocks that led in 2020. This shows how market trends can quickly change and impact returns.
  3. The risk of investing in stocks has shifted, and the expected returns are lower than in the past. Investors need to rethink how much they expect to earn from the stock market in the future.

Why do stocks often rise after midterm elections?

Jon’s Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 06 Nov 22
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Economic Trends Market Analysis Political Impact
  1. Stocks often rise after midterm elections. On average, the S&P 500 has gone up 11% in the six months following these elections since 1930.
  2. The period from November to April is generally the best time for stock performance. Historically, stocks tend to increase more during this time compared to the May to October stretch.
  3. When Congress is divided, the stock market can do better. Split control of Congress can reduce uncertainty and government spending, leading to higher stock returns.

The Venture Activity Index

Who is Nnamdi • 10 implied HN points • 25 Jul 23
💼 Business Venture Capital Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Analysis
  1. The Venture Activity Index measures the state of the venture business cycle using the Venture Activity Index (VAI).
  2. Funding in the venture market is fluctuating around a linear trend with a consistent ~5% growth per quarter on average.
  3. Correlations across different stages of venture investment have increased since 2020, with later stages experiencing more volatility than seed and Series A stages.

Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 2 HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. The number of single-family units built for rent almost doubled from 2020 to 2023, showing a significant increase in this housing trend.
  2. About 18% of the built-for-rent units started in 2023 were single-family units, highlighting a shift in the housing market.
  3. While single-family completions built for sale saw a decrease, completed units built for rent were up 21% year-over-year, potentially affecting rental market supply and rent prices.

Don't be fooled by Wall Street analysts

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Forecasting Financial Analysis Economic Trends
  1. Wall Street analysts have consistently missed S&P 500 year-end targets by an average of 15.7% from 2018 to 2023.
  2. It's hard for even the most renowned financial firms to predict exact stock market values, showing the importance of personal research.
  3. Despite sophisticated analysis, Wall Street analysts often get S&P 500 projections wrong, emphasizing the value of independent thinking in investment decisions.

What happens to stocks when the Fed pauses on rate hikes?

Jon’s Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jun 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Interest Rates Economic Trends Investment strategy Market Analysis
  1. When the Fed pauses rate hikes for three months or more, it usually boosts stock performance. Historically, stocks saw average gains of over 8% during these pauses.
  2. Shorter pauses in the tightening cycle have mixed results. In some cases, stocks went up mildly, while in others, they saw small declines.
  3. If the Fed maintains the pause until September, it suggests a positive outlook for stocks, especially if interest rates have peaked. However, if rates continue to rise, the market impact is less clear.

A Viral Market Update XIV: A Wrap on the COVID market, premature or not!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 05 Nov 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Stock Market Economic Trends Risk management
  1. The COVID-19 pandemic caused major shifts in financial markets, with significant gains in technology and healthcare sectors while energy and real estate suffered. Companies that adapted quickly have done better than those that did not.
  2. Younger and high-growth companies have gained more value during the crisis, while older and low-growth firms have lost ground. This shows a trend towards investing in future potential rather than established stability.
  3. The stock market's recovery suggests that investors are hopeful about the economy bouncing back despite ongoing uncertainties. This reflects a belief that the worst of the crisis has passed, even though challenges remain.

A Viral Market Update XI: The Flexibility Premium

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 02 Jul 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Corporate Finance Risk management Economic Trends
  1. Flexibility is key for businesses during tough times. Companies that can quickly adapt their operations are often more successful.
  2. Investment, operating, financing, and cash return flexibilities are important factors. Companies that manage these well are more likely to thrive.
  3. However, focusing on flexibility can have trade-offs like shorter business lifecycles and social costs. It's crucial to balance flexibility with long-term stability.

A Viral Market Update VIII: A Crisis Test - Value vs Growth, Active vs Passive, Small Cap vs Large!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 13 May 20
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Risk management Asset allocation Economic Trends
  1. The recent market crisis has highlighted differences between value and growth investing. Value investors have faced significant losses, while growth stocks did not drop as much.
  2. Active investing is struggling against passive strategies like index funds, which have been gaining popularity. Many active funds underperformed during recent market turmoil.
  3. Small cap stocks have underperformed compared to large caps during this crisis. This suggests that large companies may become more dominant in the post-COVID economy.

A Viral Market Meltdown VI: The Price of Risk

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 08 Apr 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Risk Assessment Investment Strategies Economic Trends
  1. The stock market has been very volatile recently, but there was a slight calm where prices only changed by small amounts, which felt stable compared to earlier weeks.
  2. Investors are worried about risks, which has made them demand higher returns on both stocks and bonds. This means that the price of risk is rising across the board.
  3. The pandemic is making it vital for companies to regularly update their estimates of risk and returns instead of relying on old data, as the market is shifting rapidly.

A Viral Market Meltdown V: Back to Basics!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 31 Mar 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends Asset Valuation Corporate Finance
  1. The market is experiencing a lot of ups and downs, with some recovery seen recently. However, many global indices are still down significantly compared to earlier this year.
  2. Investors should go back to basic evaluation strategies during this unpredictable time. It's important to assess potential company shakeups and their financial health rather than solely relying on past data.
  3. The survival of companies is at risk, especially those with high debt or poor earnings. The post-crisis market might look very different as new winners and losers emerge.

A Viral Market Meltdown IV: Investing for a post-virus Economy

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 Mar 20
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Economic Trends Risk management Asset allocation
  1. The market is going through a tough time, and many investment options have lost value, showing that no asset class is completely safe right now.
  2. How quickly the economy rebounds after the crisis will depend on various factors, including consumer behavior and structural changes in the economy.
  3. Depending on your view of the recovery, you can adopt different investment strategies, like focusing on lower-debt companies or innovative ones that may thrive in the new normal.

Data Update 2 for 2020: Retrospective on a Disruptive Decade

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 27 Jan 20
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economic Trends Risk Assessment Data Analysis
  1. The past decade saw strong growth in stocks, with the S&P 500 nearly tripling in value and a notable rise in bond returns as well. It was a great time for investors, especially those who held onto their portfolios.
  2. Interest rates dropped significantly during this period, influenced by both global economic conditions and central bank actions. Many believe these low rates are here to stay as the economy's fundamentals support them.
  3. Tech companies, particularly the FAANG group, led the stock market's rise, drastically increasing their market capitalization. This shift shows how important tech has become compared to traditional industries like energy.

Season 03 - Newsletter 06 --> Look back at 2023 and forward to 2024

Product Hustle Stack Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 29 Dec 23
💼 Business Product Management Consumer behavior Tech industry Economic Trends AI Integration
  1. Consumer behavior shifted in 2023 due to inflation and a balance between in-store and e-commerce shopping preferences.
  2. 2023 pivotal moments: FTX Crypto Exchange failure, tech industry layoffs, ChatGPT impact, Venture Capital Winter.
  3. Product management trends for 2024: focus on customer-centricity, data-driven decisions, collaboration tools evolution, and AI integration.