The hottest Economic Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Mortgage rates have dropped significantly since early 2020, with many loans under 4%. This makes it tough for homeowners to sell because they would face higher payments on new homes.
  2. More homes with loans over 6% are appearing in the market, indicating changes in mortgage dynamics since the peak of low rates in 2022.
  3. The average mortgage rate, along with borrowers' credit scores and loan-to-value ratios, is crucial in understanding the current mortgage landscape.

The Reading Unlock

SatPost by Trung Phan • 254 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
💼 Business Economic Trends
  1. Entrepreneurs like Joe Coulombe, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk were inspired by reading single articles to start successful ventures.
  2. Reading diverse and random content can help build a unique insight stack when combined with other skills.
  3. Reading and continuous learning are crucial for developing insights that lead to successful ventures or investments.

Covidnomics

Diane Francis • 359 implied HN points • 12 Aug 21
💼 Business Economic Trends
  1. The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped how we work. More people are preferring remote work, leading to changes in workplaces and housing preferences.
  2. Many workers are quitting their jobs to prioritize safety and better work-life balance. This trend is forcing companies to adapt by offering flexible work options.
  3. Labor has gained more power, pushing for better pay and working conditions. This has led to higher wages and changes in benefits across various industries.

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Mule’s Musings • 83 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Several companies, including AMD and INTC, have recently released their earnings reports. This is important for investors to understand how these companies are performing.
  2. The list of companies mentioned are all key players in the tech and semiconductor industries. Keeping an eye on their earnings can provide insight into market trends.
  3. This information is mainly aimed at subscribers, indicating it may include in-depth analysis or additional insights for those interested in stock performance.

Builder Incentives and Profits

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Builders like Lennar are using cash discounts to sell homes, which can create a misleading price for buyers. Buyers may end up paying more due to high 'menu prices' even if they think they are getting a good deal.
  2. There are risks for mortgaged buyers when home prices fall. They might be stuck with a mortgage amount that is higher than the real value of their home, leading to losses or foreclosure situations.
  3. Unlike in past housing crises, current market conditions have regulators and the Federal Reserve focused on avoiding a housing crash. The situation today is more stable, reducing the chances of a major crisis like in 2008.
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July 2025 Homebuilder Thoughts

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The housing market could be misjudging homebuilders, suggesting a chance for profit. It's important to pay attention to the factors affecting builders' performance.
  2. There may be systematic issues in how the market is evaluating the homebuilding sector. Understanding these issues can help in making informed decisions.
  3. Investors should consider the potential for trading gains by looking deeper into the housing market trends and builder performance.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Home prices in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas showed clear patterns before and after the 2008 housing crisis. They experienced a boom, then a downturn when lending tightened.
  2. During the crisis, low-tier home prices dropped more than high-tier prices. This happened because many poor families couldn't afford housing and had to move around or suffer from rising rents.
  3. Areas like Miami and Tampa had different dynamics, with more separation in low-tier prices before the crisis. They faced ongoing housing shortages, causing continual price increases even after the market correction.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Current mortgage rates remain high, especially above 6%, making it hard for homeowners to sell and buy new homes. Most people with lower rates don't want to move because their payments would go up.
  2. More than half of all outstanding loans are now under 4%, showing how many people got favorable rates during the pandemic. This is a big reason why available homes for sale are currently low.
  3. Market sentiment is hesitant, with many potential buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop into the 5% range before they consider purchasing a home.

Mortgages Outstanding by Credit Score

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. After 2008, the number of mortgages given to people with lower credit scores dropped significantly compared to those with higher scores. This changed the lending landscape quite a bit.
  2. High real estate prices are affecting mortgage access more than the other way around. Many lower credit score borrowers are struggling to get mortgages, leading to higher rents and home prices.
  3. The tightening of lending rules since 2008 has made it harder for many people to become homeowners, leading to a market where only certain buyers can take advantage of low interest rates and good prices.

In tech we trust?

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The stock market has seen a drop recently, with tech stocks struggling more than others. Investors are worried about rising interest rates and potential recession.
  2. Despite the downturn, some experts believe investing in tech can lead to growth in the long run. Companies in tech can adapt and thrive even during tough economic times.
  3. Certain tech stocks, like Apple and Microsoft, are still seen as good investments due to their potential for continued growth and strong market positions.

NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The apartment market conditions are getting tighter, which means it's becoming more competitive to find available units.
  2. There is slightly more activity in buying and selling apartments, signaling some optimism despite overall uncertainty in the economy.
  3. While borrowing money for apartments is improving, getting equity financing is still a bit harder than it was before.

Trade Ideas for 2025

The Last Bear Standing • 53 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. There are 17 stock ideas for 2025 that include 10 buying opportunities and 4 stocks to sell. These ideas focus on different industries and market trends.
  2. The author had success in the past year by betting on precious metals and cryptocurrencies. This year, the focus shifts entirely to equity markets.
  3. The listed stocks cover various topics like space expansion, energy storage, and datacenter needs, showing a diverse range for potential investment.

Investing Update: Insiders & Hedge Funds Bearish?

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. January showed positive trends for the Dow, indicating a potentially good year for the market. The Dow was up 4.7%, a promising start compared to the other indexes.
  2. Many S&P 500 stocks are reaching new highs, suggesting a strong market performance. This is the highest level since last November, which could be a positive sign.
  3. Investors are shifting money into U.S. equities, with noticeable inflows in financials and consumer cyclical sectors. This trend indicates growing confidence in these areas.

October 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Home construction costs have risen over time, but the price hikes for new homes are affected more by land costs and less by construction costs. This means that it's getting harder for average families to afford homes, as they are paying more for existing homes due to limited supply.
  2. In higher-end markets, the quality and size of new homes aren’t keeping up with rising incomes. Despite inflation, average people are struggling more because the character of new homes is changing despite high land values.
  3. The overall housing market reflects different trends for rich and average buyers. Wealthier buyers usually track new home costs, while average buyers feel the squeeze from existing home prices influenced by constrained supply.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

The return of tech stocks.

Jon’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 05 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Tech stocks are making a comeback in 2023, with big gains in the NASDAQ 100 index.
  2. Many tech companies are focusing on cost-cutting and efficiency to improve their performance despite challenges like layoffs.
  3. The excitement around AI, especially with developments like ChatGPT, is driving investor interest and boosting stock prices in the tech sector.

January 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.

Jumping the Shark

The Last Bear Standing • 55 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The stock market is moving up quickly, with some stocks seeing huge gains in just a short time. It feels like the excitement from early 2021 is returning.
  2. Investors are showing great interest in areas like cryptocurrencies and quantum computing, leading to sudden spikes in these stocks. This might remind people of past market trends.
  3. There's a sense of irrational confidence in some investments, which can lead to risky behavior. The market is moving in unpredictable ways, and that's something to watch closely.

Spilled Coffee Year In Review

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The most requested content from subscribers was a comprehensive list of newsletters from the past year, which was compiled into one easy post.
  2. The most read piece of the year focused on the reasons to sell stocks, highlighting that concerns about selling are always present in the market.
  3. The year-end review thanks readers for their support and encourages them to look forward to future updates and insights.

Trading The Shit Show: February 2025 Market Update

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The writer has been sober for 72 days, which has brought them clarity and peace. They feel that stepping back from gambling and trading has helped them focus better on their life.
  2. They are optimistic about their market predictions, having outperformed the S&P by 9% since the beginning of the year. A clear mind seems to be helping their financial outlook.
  3. New features for paid subscribers have been introduced, allowing for more direct discussions. This change aims to create a better connection with their readers.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Home sales are down across many markets, with a 4.3% decrease year-over-year in May compared to last year.
  2. New listings are slowly increasing, up by 6.3% compared to last May, but still lag behind the numbers from 2019.
  3. Inventory levels are rising significantly, with a 29% increase year-over-year, indicating a changing market dynamic.

Berkshire's Next Buy?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The author is just guessing which company Berkshire might buy next. It's not a solid prediction, but more of a fun exercise in thinking like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
  2. Berkshire Hathaway has a lot of cash available, which gives them opportunities to make significant investments.
  3. This post is intended for paid subscribers, suggesting that there might be more detailed insights available to them.

A Year in Review

The Last Bear Standing • 45 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. 2024 showed a strong bull market, with big tech and AI leading the way while smaller companies struggled early on.
  2. Mid-year, signs of inflation and unemployment triggered some market concerns but were quickly eased by positive economic data and rate cuts.
  3. In general, equities did well this year, while bonds had a tougher time, especially U.S. Treasuries, which struggled with rising yields.

Running on Empty

The Last Bear Standing • 32 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is mostly just moving money around rather than actually reducing the money supply. This means the impact on inflation might not be as significant as it seems.
  2. The Reverse Repo Facility, which helps maintain liquidity in financial markets, is running low. As it decreases, there could be less stability in short-term funding.
  3. While some people say the situation is either a disaster or not a problem at all, it's more complex. We might see tighter banking conditions and more market volatility as the Fed continues its quantitative tightening efforts.

Housing Worries Are Building

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Mortgage rates have jumped to 7%, which is making it hard for people to buy new homes. As a result, new home sales have dropped significantly, the worst drop since 2013.
  2. Building permits for new homes are also falling, which often happens before recessions. This suggests that fewer homes will be built in the near future, putting pressure on the housing market.
  3. There are a lot of new homes waiting to be sold, the highest number since 2009. If this trend continues, it could lead to a drop in home prices.

Homebuilder Earnings Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Homebuilder earnings are being updated, which is important for understanding the housing market. This update can give insights into how homebuilders are performing financially.
  2. Keeping track of homebuilder performance can help in making informed decisions about buying or selling a home. If builders are doing well, it might indicate a strong housing market.
  3. The information provided is available through a subscription service, which offers more detailed analyses and insights. Exploring these resources can be beneficial for those interested in housing trends.

Powell: No Pivot, No Party

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Powell is sticking to a tough stance on interest rates, focusing on keeping them higher for longer. This means there won't be any quick changes to the economic outlook.
  2. His recent comments show no signs of easing up, which suggests the market won't see a big rally soon, even if world events change.
  3. For now, gold's short-term growth may be slowing down, but the long-term trend still looks positive.

Big tech stocks are surging. Why is that bearish?

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Big tech stocks have seen huge gains, primarily driving the rise of the S&P 500 this year. This doesn't mean the overall market is in trouble, though.
  2. Experts believe that the concentration of these tech stocks doesn't affect future market performance significantly, so there’s no need to worry.
  3. Many stocks outside of tech are doing well, and a lot of analysts expect major tech companies to keep rising in value over the next year.

Investing Update: 3 Stocks For Year-End

Spilled Coffee • 4 implied HN points • 15 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The stock market had a mixed week, with the Dow and S&P 500 up, but the Nasdaq down. Investors are being more careful with tech stocks due to worries about high prices.
  2. Past government shutdowns didn't hurt the stock market historically, as the S&P 500 rose during a recent shutdown. It shows that shutdowns might not impact stocks as much as people think.
  3. Tech stock performance is shaky right now, with fewer stocks above key moving averages, but the S&P 500 is still close to its all-time high. A good earnings report from Nvidia could help stabilize the market.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.

NVIDIA and the Return to Normal

The Last Bear Standing • 152 implied HN points • 26 May 23
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. NVIDIA reported smashing earnings and provided exceptional guidance for future growth.
  2. Investors should focus on earnings growth and company trajectory rather than short-term valuation alone.
  3. The market is showing signs of returning to normal with tech earnings rebounding and macro uncertainties persisting.

What's going on with ServiceTitan's IPO, earnings updates, and stock market stupidity

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. ServiceTitan is planning to go public, but it has some tough financial hurdles to overcome. The company needs to set a higher share price than what it is aiming for to avoid losing money during the process.
  2. Several companies, like Box and Salesforce, have recently reported positive earnings, showing they are performing better than expected. This positive news suggests some strength in the tech market.
  3. A recent coup attempt in South Korea ended quickly when lawmakers voted against martial law. It highlights the resilience of democratic processes in the country, even in dire situations.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Housing starts in October dropped to 1.311 million, which is lower than both September and October of last year. This shows a continued decrease in new home construction.
  2. Single-family housing starts also fell by about 6.9% compared to the previous month, suggesting potential challenges in the market for individual homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts saw a trend of weakness over the past year, indicating it may be harder to get those types of buildings underway, while single-family starts have been improving recently.

The US labor market is much weaker than we have been told

Global Markets Investor • 7 HN points • 15 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The US labor market is weaker than portrayed in headlines, with data revisions indicating lower job growth than initially reported.
  2. There has been a rise in part-time jobs and multiple jobholders, while full-time jobs have decreased, presenting a concerning trend for the US economy.
  3. Analysis of native vs foreign-born employment shows a significant difference, indicating that job creation in the US has been largely driven by immigrants in recent years.

Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. It's important to consider that you could be wrong about the market crashing; sometimes things can go up instead of down. Keeping an open mind helps in understanding the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Thinking about worst-case scenarios can be useful, even if they seem unlikely. It’s good to prepare yourself mentally for different outcomes.
  3. Rethinking your assumptions is healthy, especially when the market behaves in ways that don't make sense. Questioning yourself can lead to growth and better insights.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Investing Update: Is This Peak Bullishness?

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high this month, with November being the best month of the year so far. This indicates strong market performance overall.
  2. Many individual stocks are also doing great this year, with a majority of them showing positive results. Specifically, financial stocks are leading the way in performance.
  3. December is traditionally a good month for the market, especially in an election year, which encourages bullish investor sentiment.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. U.S. house prices rose about 4.5% over the past year, showing growth across all regions, but at a slower pace than before. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of rapid increases.
  2. The Case-Shiller index indicates that home prices have been increasing month-over-month consistently, with a 0.5% rise recently, even though some cities like San Francisco and Tampa are seeing price declines.
  3. Overall house prices are now higher than they were before the pandemic, but growth is less intense than during peak years, reflecting changes in demand and supply in the housing market.