The hottest Decision-making Substack posts right now

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Book Review: “The Great Mental Models, Volume 3: Systems and Mathematics” by Farnam Street 4/5

Poczwardowski Notes • 0 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
🚌 Education Mathematics Decision-making Books
  1. Exploring topics like system thinking and mathematics can help us understand the world better, even if they are not commonly taught in schools.
  2. The book does a great job of explaining complex concepts like feedback loops and bottlenecks in systems, making them easier to comprehend and apply in real life.
  3. Understanding systems and mathematics not only enhances our knowledge of the world but also improves our decision-making process as a bonus.

Book Review: "The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts" Vol. I - by Farnam Street 4/5

Poczwardowski Notes • 0 implied HN points • 22 Jul 22
🚌 Education Mental models Decision-making Problem Solving
  1. The book presents 9 mental models with many examples and illustrations.
  2. It's the first volume in a series focusing on general thinking concepts, serving as a great introduction to the world of mental models.
  3. Implementing these concepts can enhance decision-making and problem-solving skills, benefiting personal growth and understanding.

Build A Strong Middle Management

Build To Scale • 0 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
💼 Business Management Decision-making Company Culture Leadership Scaling
  1. Developing a strong middle management layer is crucial for scaling a company. They have a significant impact on work and culture, even more so than the executive team.
  2. Push decision-making down the organization, close to the action. Empower front-line managers to make decisions based on shared values, fostering a culture of trust and responsibility.
  3. Executive role is to add value by creating a high-performance culture. Empowering managers to make decisions and grow in confidence is key. Trusting managers to make informed decisions enhances problem-solving and communication skills.

The Pleaser

Build To Scale • 0 implied HN points • 18 Aug 23
💼 Business Leadership Decision-making Management Startups Communication
  1. Trying to please everyone in business can undermine your effectiveness as a leader.
  2. Making strategic decisions often requires being decisive and not getting caught up in trying to find compromises that may lead to worse outcomes.
  3. Executives should focus on making timely decisions with the best interest of the company in mind to earn respect and move the organization forward efficiently.
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Founder Fuck-up #02: Ignoring the Vision-Ecosystem Fit

Founder Fuck-ups • 0 implied HN points • 02 Nov 23
💼 Business Startups Entrepreneurship Location Failure Decision-making
  1. Location is critical for startups as the ecosystem can significantly impact success.
  2. The concept of 'vision-ecosystem fit' emphasizes the importance of being in the right environment for your goals to thrive.
  3. It's vital to differentiate between 'smart grit' - adaptable determination, and 'dumb grit' - stubborn persistence, to make wise decisions in entrepreneurship.

Product Management 3: A Prioritisation Framework

Turnaround • 0 implied HN points • 06 Jan 20
💼 Business Product Management Decision-making Prioritization Framework
  1. Having a good prioritisation framework is crucial for Product Managers to remove ambiguity in decision-making and set correct expectations, especially when dealing with backlogs.
  2. Using a scoring formula can help Product Managers prioritize ideas, features, and tasks to create a ranked order that the team can understand and follow during product roadmap planning.
  3. Product Managers can benefit from a prioritization framework like a modified RICE model, which involves assigning scores based on various factors like customer value, engineering effort, and product line priority to create a rational backlog grooming session.

On the Importance of Mental Models in Investing

Equal Ventures • 0 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Investing Mental models Venture Assets Decision-making
  1. Venture investing can be unstructured with limited data, requiring investors to develop independent conviction in opportunities.
  2. Successful investors use mental models to structure thoughts and make better decisions, developing a unique approach based on a latticework of models.
  3. Leveraging mental models inspired by seasoned investors can significantly impact professional growth and decision-making, creating structure in the chaotic venture environment.

How to Drive Meaningful Change - Delivering your proposal

Joseph Gefroh • 0 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💼 Business Leadership Strategy Communication Influence Decision-making
  1. Effectively delivering a proposal is crucial for its approval by decision-makers and stakeholders.
  2. Summarizing your proposal concisely is key - leaders are busy and need clear, quick information to make decisions.
  3. Using the right medium, such as presentations or written documents, is important to communicate your proposal effectively.

Product Management Skills - Articulating assumptions and acting with intention

Joseph Gefroh • 0 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💼 Business Product Management Decision-making Problem Solving Risk management Validation
  1. Product Managers need to be intentional with their decisions to drive beneficial outcomes for the company. Lack of intentionality can lead to arbitrary decisions that may not have the desired effect.
  2. Being intentional involves articulating the thought process behind proposals, validating assumptions, and being open to feedback. This increases the chances of success in product management.
  3. To effectively manage a product, one should thoroughly discover and define the problem space, propose viable approaches, form concise hypotheses, articulate key assumptions, validate those assumptions, make informed decisions, and monitor outcomes for continuous improvement.

Product Management Skills - Articulating development cost risks

Joseph Gefroh • 0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💼 Business Product Management Risk management Cost Analysis Decision-making
  1. As a product manager, it's crucial to articulate, define, and compare risks to make informed decisions.
  2. Development cost risk is a key consideration for product managers, impacting the cost-effectiveness of solutions.
  3. Saying 'no' to a project due to development cost concerns may actually hinder value delivery, as development costs are ongoing even when no work is done.

War Stories - How I turned around a paralyzed Product organization into a rapid delivery engine

Joseph Gefroh • 0 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💼 Business Management Product Decision-making Startup
  1. The Product Management organization struggled with defining and prioritizing work, leading to underutilization of engineers and ill-defined requirements.
  2. The Product Managers faced challenges due to analysis paralysis, fear of making mistakes, and a desire for full consensus before decisions.
  3. To address the issues, a bold approach was taken to focus on building the muscle of delivering change, removing fear barriers, and banning A/B tests to prevent decision-making delays.

GRANTED: Making long-term decisions and long-term friendships

Granted • 0 implied HN points • 08 Sep 18
🚌 Education Decision-making Friendships
  1. Making long-term decisions involves considering more than just two options. Adding a third alternative can increase the odds of success.
  2. Building real friendships takes time. On average, it requires 50 hours of interaction to move from acquaintance to friend and 200 hours to become close friends.
  3. Balancing group problem-solving with individual work leads to both good and great ideas. Intermittent collaboration between solo and group efforts is effective.

WONDERING: When Strengths are Overused and Fun is Overdone

Granted • 0 implied HN points • 31 Aug 18
💼 Business Management Decision-making Workplace culture
  1. The best advice highlights blind spots in our thinking and helps us clarify priorities, rather than specifying what to do.
  2. When seeking advice, people often want guidance on how to approach a decision, instead of being told which option to choose.
  3. Colleagues should be informed when mandatory fun isn't enjoyable, especially in a work environment where the focus is on work.

GRANTED: Why I’m Always Late and the Joy of Missing Out

Granted • 0 implied HN points • 10 Oct 15
🎭️ Culture Mindfulness Gender Equality Decision-making Self-Improvement
  1. Pre-Crastination is completing trivial tasks urgently for a false sense of accomplishment, a different way of irrational behavior compared to procrastination.
  2. Being constantly late might be due to a 'tyrannical monkey' living in our brains, according to a humorous post from Wait But Why.
  3. There are common cognitive biases that can affect our decision-making, highlighting the importance of understanding our mental stumbling blocks.

Economists, at conferences, wearing masks

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 03 Sep 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Masks Vaccines Science Decision-making Community
  1. Economists at conferences are debating whether mask mandates should be enforced - valid reasons support the policy include the efficacy of high-grade masks and the encouragement of testing before attendance.
  2. Considerations around whether mask mandates should be individual choices or community decisions are being raised - the discussion extends to vaccine mandates and the public good rationale.
  3. The economy's interaction with pandemic health measures presents a nuanced debate - balancing personal freedoms with ensuring safety in large gatherings.

What are the barriers to sensible public health data?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 14 Apr 21
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Data Management Health Systems Decision-making
  1. Having comprehensive public health data is crucial for running an effective health system and monitoring trends.
  2. Political leaders need to prioritize and commit to improving public health data systems for better outcomes.
  3. Implementing a balanced growth strategy instead of a 'big bang' approach can lead to more sustainable progress in developing national public health data systems.

My mistakes

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 05 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Learning Reflection Mistakes Decision-making
  1. It's important to reflect on our mistakes and learn from them, especially in challenging situations like a pandemic.
  2. Relying solely on scientific experts for predictions and policies can sometimes lead to incomplete assessments, highlighting the importance of questioning and exposing expert's risk calculations.
  3. Acknowledging and learning from past mistakes is key to improving and increasing accuracy in decision-making and predictions.

Should you wait for the 'good' vaccine?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 03 Mar 21
🏥 Health Politics Vaccines Public Health Government Decision-making Messaging
  1. The real choice between vaccines is to take the one available now and get a booster of the 'good' vaccine later.
  2. Governments should inform people about their vaccine choices and guarantee availability of booster shots in the future.
  3. Encouraging a portfolio approach to vaccine selection is more effective than promoting one vaccine over another.

Covid-19 and 'Forced' Experimentation

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 07 Aug 20
💼 Business Economics Entertainment Streaming Consumer behavior Decision-making
  1. Due to Covid-19, the entertainment industry is experimenting with online movie releases, which may lead to permanent changes in distribution practices.
  2. The economics of movie distribution involve factors like physical distribution costs, risk aversion in trying new strategies, and revenue-sharing agreements with theaters.
  3. If successful, the shift to online releases could mean higher quality home viewing experiences, changes in consumer choices, and potential scaling back of traditional movie theaters.

Trump likes to ‘win.’ Accept that and perhaps he can be neutralised

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 07 May 16
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Leaders Decision-making Conflict resolution
  1. Trump's main goal is to 'win' at all costs, viewing the world as zero-sum where there are winners and losers.
  2. Trump is willing to accept defeat when faced with inevitable losses, as seen in examples from 'The Apprentice.'
  3. It is important to understand Trump's response to defeat in order to strategize and possibly neutralize his actions in the short-term.

Is your organisation based on PowerPoint or Excel?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 15
🔬 Science Space Exploration Organizational Structure Decision-making Data Collection Collaboration
  1. Organizational structures based on PowerPoint and Excel can lead to different outcomes in data collection and decision-making processes.
  2. Team PowerPoint emphasizes collective decision-making and qualitative trade-offs, leading to comprehensive analyses of common phenomena.
  3. Team Excel focuses on specialized knowledge with separate teams managing instruments, resulting in very complete and specialized data collection but less collaboration.

🎓 Making (reasonably) good decisions quickly; Using a third Entity instead of a Join Table

Become a Senior Engineer • 0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Decision-making Database Management APIs Programming
  1. Making decisions quickly is crucial for unblocking progress and enabling action, learning, and iteration.
  2. When dealing with complex decisions, prioritize understanding the problem, collaborating with your team, and utilizing prototyping for informed choices.
  3. Using a third entity instead of a join table in relational databases can better reflect domain logic and avoid compatibility issues with frameworks.

Take a Pregnant Pause

Are You Okay? • 0 implied HN points • 08 Jul 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Pregnancy COVID-19 Vaccination Decision-making
  1. Pregnancy during the COVID-19 pandemic can be challenging due to the risks involved. It is essential to weigh the benefits of getting vaccinated.
  2. Data on pregnant individuals who received the COVID vaccine shows reassuring safety outcomes for both the person and the pregnancy.
  3. The mRNA vaccine technology has been in production for a decade and is safe, providing a crucial tool for protecting pregnant and breastfeeding patients.

Health is More Than the Absence of Disease

Are You Okay? • 0 implied HN points • 18 Feb 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Risk mitigation Health Benefits Decision-making
  1. Vaccination against COVID-19 aims to prevent disease for the individual and transmission to protect others. The available vaccines have shown strong protection against severe disease and death.
  2. Recent data suggests that COVID-19 vaccines not only protect against the disease but also reduce transmission. Vaccination plays a crucial role in combating the pandemic.
  3. Health extends beyond just avoiding illness. Mitigating risks, making informed decisions, and considering broader needs are essential components of overall health.

Are your decisions above or below the water line? 🚢

PeopleStorming • 0 implied HN points • 08 Sep 20
💼 Business Decision-making Team Dynamics Conflict resolution Workplace dynamics
  1. Decisions can be categorized as above or below the waterline, where those below may have more damaging consequences that are harder to fix.
  2. Teams and individuals often exhibit biases towards either high-speed or high-quality decision-making, which can lead to conflicts that need to be addressed.
  3. It's important for teams to embrace diversity in decision-making styles and biases to ensure healthy debates and respect for each other's differences.

Thinking About Thinking 🧐

PeopleStorming • 0 implied HN points • 11 Aug 20
🚌 Education Metacognition Learning Facilitation Thinking Decision-making
  1. Metacognition, or thinking about thinking, is vital for the learning process. When learning something new, considering different strategies and decision-making is an example of metacognitive activity.
  2. As facilitators, understanding individuals' thought processes is crucial to guiding productive discussions. Facilitators delve deep into how participants think to facilitate positive outcomes.
  3. Good facilitation requires deliberate focus on thinking at various abstraction levels, similar to the focus needed for complex tasks like software development. Facilitators are seen as essential for guiding effective conversations.

Reflections on Venture Capital

Venture Prose • 0 implied HN points • 14 Aug 18
💼 Business Venture Capital Relationships Investments Decision-making Entrepreneurship
  1. Building a lasting partnership in business, especially in entrepreneurship, can be challenging due to differing paths and potential tensions.
  2. Transparent and honest communication is crucial for overcoming differences in relationships, including in the VC-Founder dynamic.
  3. In Venture Capital, focusing on a common set of purpose, values, and principles, along with talent and merit, is essential for building a committed and accountable team for delivering performance.

It all comes from being extra-clairvoyant

Venture Prose • 0 implied HN points • 07 Jun 18
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Leadership Self-Improvement Decision-making Execution
  1. Optimistic Clairvoyance helps founders improve their instincts and intuition to understand their environment and make better decisions.
  2. Maximize receptiveness and learning velocity to understand why and how you take certain actions.
  3. Achieving execution excellence requires surrounding yourself with the right people and making continuous adjustments.

The 7 reasons why I say No to founders reaching out to us for funding.

Venture Prose • 0 implied HN points • 27 Feb 16
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Investment Startups Decision-making Venture Capital
  1. Saying no to founders seeking funding is necessary but not enjoyable to do.
  2. Reasons for rejection include personal fit, belief in the team, understanding of subject/geography, liking the space/activity, alignment with criteria, and doubts about certain aspects.
  3. Investing in startups is a people business full of unpredictability, and success is often only visible in hindsight.

Decision Making 101

Austin's Analects • 0 implied HN points • 12 Nov 18
🏥 Health & Wellness Decision-making
  1. When making decisions, there isn't always a clear right answer. The 'right' decision can bring both comfort and discomfort, prevent and provoke conflict, and make you happy and sad.
  2. To make decisions effectively, analyze your options, consider the pros and cons of each solution, and then decide. Trust your intuition, make your choice, and move forward.
  3. After making a decision, write it down and justify your choice to yourself. Avoid dwelling on the decision and focus on dealing with the outcomes as they arise.

"Here's a Different Idea"

The Radar • 0 implied HN points • 02 Sep 23
💼 Business Leadership Workplace dynamics Corporate culture Employee engagement Decision-making
  1. Agency is powerful - When people have ownership in decisions, they are more motivated to prove them right.
  2. Persuasion is effective - Giving individuals a choice empowers them, leading to better outcomes and increased effort.
  3. Data-driven decisions - Using data and evidence in leadership makes decisions more rational and invites respect, fostering loyalty and team camaraderie.

Scrub These Three Words From Your Hiring Process

The Radar • 0 implied HN points • 02 Sep 23
💼 Business Recruitment Diversity Decision-making Team development
  1. Diversity is vital for effective teams, using 'fit' as a hiring criteria can limit diverse perspectives and lead to an insular team.
  2. The concept of 'fit' is vague and can lead to biases and arbitrary decisions, interviewers may struggle to define what 'fit' really means.
  3. Seeking 'fit' can encourage dishonesty in candidates who try to match what they think the hiring process wants, leading to a lack of authenticity in hires and erosion of organizational integrity.

The Devil You Know is Better Than the Angel You Don't

Metarational • 0 implied HN points • 05 Jun 21
💼 Business Decision-making Relationships Profitability Society
  1. Predictability is crucial in social interactions - knowing the devil you know can be better than the angel you don't.
  2. Having a history or personal connection with someone can lead to profitable collaborations, even if they are generally inferior.
  3. Social and cultural structures that enhance predictability can create more scenarios for successful collaborations, even if they are arbitrary.

Follow your gut ?

Eddie's startup voyage • 0 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making Intuition Reason Values Metaphors
  1. Consider balancing rational thinking with gut instinct in decision-making, especially in situations with limited data or inconclusive information.
  2. Use mental models like Jeff Bezos' 1-way vs 2-way door decisions to navigate choices. For irreversible decisions, follow your gut if it strongly signals a direction; for reversible decisions, consider both rational and instinctive inputs.
  3. Understand the interplay between Daniel Kahneman's System 1 and System 2 thinking in decision-making, and learn to appropriately calibrate analytical and intuitive processes to make better choices.