The hottest Economic Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top World Politics Topics

BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-14 Sa

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 92 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Healthcare policy Social Policy Foreign Relations
  1. Economic growth in the G-5 has faced challenges due to policy choices, like the Reagan deficits and insufficient public investment. These choices have slowed growth compared to earlier times.
  2. ObamaCare has effectively controlled entitlement spending, shifting the focus to new financial issues. It's become clear that previous crises have changed over time.
  3. Wages for non-managerial workers have started to rise compared to managerial workers. This shift shows a significant change in the workforce that isn't just due to technology but reflects broader social dynamics.

Alexander Hamilton Did too Believe in "Industrial Policy"!!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 176 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Political History Government Industrial Policy Federalism
  1. Alexander Hamilton supported the idea of using government policies to help grow local industries. He believed that controlling foreign competition can actually help American goods become cheaper over time.
  2. Hamilton thought that while tariffs might raise prices temporarily, they could lead to long-term benefits for domestic manufacturers and even help farmers by making goods more affordable.
  3. Critics of Hamilton miss the point that he advocated for state involvement in the economy to promote national growth, which is a form of planned economic strategy.

Do Tariffs Reduce Trade Deficits?

In My Tribe • 288 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance International Trade Macroeconomics Tariffs Economic Policy
  1. Understanding international economics is complicated and involves many factors. It's not just simple numbers, but a mix of many different elements.
  2. A country's trade surplus is linked to its ability to save more than it invests. Countries that save well will usually end up holding other countries' debt like U.S. Treasury bills.
  3. Imposing tariffs might not significantly reduce trade deficits. Instead, currency appreciation can offset any potential benefits from tariffs, so real change depends more on national savings rates.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-11-27 We

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Political trends Political Economy Social Issues
  1. Zero-sum thinking is on the rise, where people believe that economic growth takes away from someone else instead of benefiting everyone. This mindset can lead to less motivation and lower innovation in society.
  2. The belief that changes in the economy will harm individuals' existing benefits is a growing concern. Many people are starting to think that opportunities for advancement are limited.
  3. Recent predictions suggest that the U.S. economy could surprise us with better growth than expected. This positive outlook contrasts with the general fears of economic decline.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Jimmy Carter, Neoliberal; Lind Agonistes; Heterodox Economists; The Order

Unpopular Front • 32 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political History Economic Policy Neoliberalism Populism Social movements
  1. Jimmy Carter's presidency is often viewed as a failure, but his policies led to a shift towards neoliberalism in the Democratic Party.
  2. There is a troubling connection between South African apartheid and modern American capitalism, highlighted by the views of tech leaders like Peter Thiel.
  3. Recent trends in the tech world show a dangerous ideology that suggests certain people should always be in power, echoing old systems of inequality.

We're going to need a bigger Bazooka

Comment is Freed • 138 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Market Reaction
  1. Britain's economy has struggled to grow since the 2008 crisis, leading to lower living standards and less effective public services. This shows how important economic growth is for improving people's lives.
  2. The government has ambitious plans for growth but is facing challenges due to tight financial constraints and investor skepticism. They need to change how investors view the UK to encourage more private investment.
  3. To achieve real economic change, the government needs to adopt bigger, bolder strategies, especially in areas that directly link to growth, like transportation projects.

Stock Buybacks Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 399 implied HN points • 04 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Corporate Finance Economic Policy Stock Analysis
  1. Stock buybacks happen when a company uses its extra cash to buy back its own shares. This can make the remaining shares more valuable by increasing earnings per share.
  2. Buybacks can be good for investors, as they might boost stock prices without having to pay taxes on dividends right away. However, critics say companies should focus on growth and investment instead.
  3. There are downsides to buybacks too. Sometimes, management might use them to inflate their bonuses, or they might buy back shares at the wrong time, leading to poor long-term results.

Why is JD Vance obsessed with your uterus?

Men Yell at Me • 632 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Reproductive Rights Social Issues Economic Policy
  1. There is a concern among conservatives about the changing family structure in America. They believe that fewer children and more single-parent households are big problems.
  2. Some policies being pushed seem to aim to bring women back into traditional roles and out of the workforce. This includes things like restrictions on abortion and cuts to benefits.
  3. Forcing women to have children or marry doesn't actually solve family issues. It can lead to more problems like domestic violence and child poverty instead.

Trump Transition Issues

In My Tribe • 425 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political appointments Economic Policy Bureaucracy
  1. Trump's appointees may struggle because they lack management experience and don't bring their own teams. This can make it hard for them to effectively lead their agencies right away.
  2. Scott Bessent has clear goals for economic growth and budget management. His plan might help improve the economy if implemented well.
  3. There's a debate about government efficiency. Some think we should reward agencies for being cheap and effective, but others believe we need to challenge the way many agencies operate instead.

The Everything Bubble Suddenly Feels Unstable

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Policy Central Banking Risk management
  1. Investors might need to prepare for tougher conditions in the market. It seems like the Federal Reserve might not be there to support them like before.
  2. The era of easily accessible money may be changing. Investors who relied on quick fixes might find it harder to bounce back from crises.
  3. It's important for investors to rethink their strategies. They may need to adapt to a new reality where traditional safety nets aren't guaranteed.

Chaos kills coordination

Economic Forces • 10 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Economic Policy Investment Strategies Market Dynamics
  1. Chaos in policies can hurt the economy by making it hard to predict what will happen next. This uncertainty stops businesses from wanting to invest money.
  2. When prices change unpredictably, they become less helpful as signals for making decisions. This means people may hold off on projects that could benefit the economy.
  3. A stable set of rules is important for economic growth. Even if policies aren't perfect, having clear and consistent ones helps businesses and workers plan for the future.

Canada's Mediocracy

Diane Francis • 1618 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Policy International relations Military Affairs Economic Policy Environmental Policy
  1. Canada is giving little military support to Ukraine, especially compared to what other countries like the US are doing. The government has also not met its NATO defense spending commitments.
  2. Trudeau's government lacks expertise, hiring outside consultants for guidance and has made several decisions that hurt Canada's energy sector and military capabilities. This raises concerns about national security.
  3. There are serious issues of foreign influence on Canadian politics, especially from China, which have not been adequately addressed by Trudeau and his administration.

The second era of fintech

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Fintech Investment Cryptocurrency Market Trends Economic Policy
  1. Fintech is experiencing significant growth again, with companies like Plaid and Klarna showing increased revenue and plans for IPOs. This is a positive sign for the industry after a tough period.
  2. The market has changed how it values fintech revenue, with some companies seeing a drop in their revenue multiples. This creates challenges for startups looking to raise funds or sell.
  3. There’s a lot of optimism in tech startups, especially with advances in AI and improvements in battery technology. Many founders are working on exciting projects that could change the industry.

Natural Gas Between Russia and Europe

Doomberg • 231 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Energy International relations Conflict Economic Policy
  1. Natural gas is a key issue in the relationship between Russia and Europe. This topic has a long history and is very relevant today.
  2. The geopolitical situation is changing rapidly, which affects how countries interact regarding energy resources.
  3. Looking ahead, it's important to understand the current gas crisis to anticipate future developments in energy supply and security.

The Beast That Can't Be Killed

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 150 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Regulation Capitalism Economic Policy Consumer Rights Wealth Inequality
  1. Capitalism has a tough time changing, even with attempts at regulation. Efforts to control it often fail, showing that it can be very resilient.
  2. Billionaires and powerful capitalists can influence and undermine regulatory bodies. Efforts to create rules for them can be ignored or dismantled.
  3. The system of capitalism can lead to negative outcomes for everyone, as the wealthy often prioritize their interests over the public good.

Money Supply Growth Accelerates And Hits A 27-Month High

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Interest Rates Government spending Inflation
  1. The money supply in the economy is growing rapidly, reaching a high not seen in over two years. This growth is mainly driven by government spending rather than strong economic conditions.
  2. Interest rates are being pushed down by the Federal Reserve to help manage the government's large debt. This could lead to future inflation as more money is created to handle increasing deficits.
  3. Despite recent economic growth, many believe it isn't based on solid foundations. The reliance on government spending and credit could pose risks for the economy moving forward.

Our "Leaders" have one skill: Breaking Things and Lying about it

cryptoeconomy • 1022 implied HN points • 17 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Government actions
  1. Government leaders are not always honest, especially about economic issues like inflation and the state of the economy.
  2. Policymakers often lie to manipulate public perception and create a false sense of economic stability.
  3. To address dishonesty and mismanagement, consider removing central planners and government control in economic matters.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 324 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Central Banking Liquidity management Investment strategy
  1. The Federal Reserve plans to keep reducing its balance sheet until at least 2025. This is to normalize financial conditions rather than to tighten the economy.
  2. Recent changes in interest rates show that the Fed is trying to clear extra cash from its programs. This could help push down short-term borrowing rates and shake up financial markets.
  3. Despite a strong U.S. dollar, there's still good liquidity available in the markets. This offers potential support for riskier investments as banks might adjust their capital due to rising stock prices.

If We Have a Strong Economy, Why Are Americans Struggling?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Market Trends Inflation Debt Management Monetary Policy
  1. Many Americans are struggling financially even when the economy seems strong. High inflation and rising costs are making life harder for a lot of people.
  2. Rising treasury yields and mortgage rates are linked to ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty. This means borrowing money is becoming more expensive.
  3. When people feel the pinch of price increases and government spending on foreign issues, they are likely to vote for change. Economic struggles can greatly influence election outcomes.

January 16, 2025

Letters from an American • 17 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Wealth Inequality Government Regulation Political Leadership Social justice
  1. President Biden warned that a rich and powerful elite, or oligarchy, is threatening democracy in America. This means that a small group is gaining too much control over the government and people's lives.
  2. Economic inequality has grown significantly since the 1980s, with more wealth moving to the top 1%. This shift has made it harder for everyday Americans to get ahead.
  3. The American public is increasingly unhappy about this inequality, as shown by recent events. People are starting to recognize the dangers of extreme wealth concentration and are looking for change.

China Capitulates

Diane Francis • 919 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Economic Policy
  1. China's economy is facing serious issues like high unemployment and a faltering currency, partly due to mistakes made by its government. It has realized that battling the U.S. economically is not a winning strategy.
  2. Historically, China has had a troubled relationship with Russia, and its current closeness to Moscow is hurting its ties with the West. To improve its situation, China is now working to distance itself from Russia and fix its foreign policy.
  3. China's leaders are trying to mend relations with the U.S. and other countries to strengthen their economy. This shift shows they understand the importance of cooperation instead of conflict.

Links to Consider, 12/6/2024

In My Tribe • 273 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Issues Economic Policy Technology Policy Education & Policy Public Opinion
  1. Many single young women now believe they are happier being single than married. Furthermore, fewer of them want to become parents, which could change family dynamics in the future.
  2. There are misleading charts about labor compensation and productivity that mix up different measures, which can confuse people about economic realities. It's important to understand the context behind statistics.
  3. Age verification for social media users is a challenge that could potentially be addressed with better technology. However, it's essential to balance the benefits and dangers of social media while enforcing age limits.

It’s good business, but knee-bending is gross

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💼 Business Corporate Governance Market Trends Economic Policy Investment Strategies
  1. Chip stocks are doing well because of high demand for AI servers, especially after positive news from Foxconn. This growth indicates a strong start for the tech sector in 2025.
  2. There are concerns about the current concentration of power in US politics, particularly with Trump in charge. Many companies feel the need to align with him for their business safety, which is seen as distasteful.
  3. Sam Altman believes we are making progress toward advanced AI and that it could significantly change industries. He is optimistic about the future of AI, stating it could lead to greater innovations and prosperity.

What Can We Learn From Banking Policy In Trump’s First Term?

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Fintech Investments Economic Policy
  1. Banking regulations during Trump's first term favored a more business-friendly and less restrictive approach, making it easier for financial innovations to flourish.
  2. Several key appointments in his administration were focused on encouraging small-dollar loans and improving access to credit for underprivileged communities.
  3. There are concerns about the transparency and accountability of banks, especially regarding how they handle customer funds during crises like bankruptcies.

Political stability is necessary to attract investments

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Economic Policy Market Trends Foreign Investment Risk Assessment
  1. Political stability makes a country more attractive for investments. When governments are stable, investors feel more secure putting their money there.
  2. Economic Policy Uncertainty can hurt investment. High levels of uncertainty about policies lead to lower returns and make investors hesitant.
  3. Recent research shows a drop in foreign investments during times of high policy uncertainty. Countries like the UK saw many foreign investors pull out after political events like Brexit.

What's Art Got to Do with It?

System Change • 491 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation Deflation China Economic Policy
  1. The art market is experiencing deflation as buyers prioritize debt repayment over new purchases.
  2. Debt deflation and low wages worldwide are driving the fall in prices of goods, services, and assets.
  3. China's economy, as the world's second largest, plays a significant role in global deflationary pressures and may require a drastic shift in economic policy to avoid a crash.

Reducing Spending Now: The Key to Growth, Not Austerity

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Spending Economic Policy Debt Management Tax reform
  1. Cutting government spending can actually help grow the economy instead of slowing it down. It frees up resources for private businesses to invest and expand.
  2. By reducing spending now, it can lead to higher incomes for Americans in the future. People can earn more if the government manages debt and keeps taxes low.
  3. Spending cuts can avoid future tax hikes, which can be harmful, especially for low-income families. Less spending now can protect people from financial strain later.

Politburo meeting, no announcement of Third Plenum; Li Shangfu missing from study session; Evergrande chairman under "control"; TikTok

Sinocism • 766 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Economic Policy Government Foreign Policy Social Impact
  1. The Politburo meeting did not announce the dates for the Third Plenum, raising speculation about possible delays or disagreements.
  2. During the Politburo Study Session on WTO reform, key officials were absent, indicating potential areas of concern.
  3. Evergrande's chairman being placed under police surveillance raises doubts about the company's ability to avoid liquidation, impacting other struggling real estate firms.

Futarchy, Distortions from Hedging, and Other Thoughts

Something to Consider • 79 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Governance Prediction Markets Economic Policy Risk management Voting Systems
  1. Futarchy is a new way to make decisions where people vote on what they want to achieve, but experts decide the best way to get there using prediction markets. This means we focus on outcomes instead of specific policies.
  2. When people are risk-averse, they might prefer safer options, and this can affect the choices made in a futarchy setup. It’s important to balance between achieving high goals and taking on too much risk.
  3. Even though prediction markets are useful, they can be skewed by people's efforts to hedge against risks. This means prices might not always reflect the true chances of outcomes, but they can still provide valuable information.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 06.02.2025

steigan.no • 7 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Health International relations Economic Policy Political Leadership Global Health
  1. Argentina has decided to withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO) because they believe COVID lockdowns caused a severe economic crisis. The president described those lockdowns as potentially harmful to humanity.
  2. WikiLeaks released a massive amount of documents revealing questionable activities by USAID, suggesting it has connections to intelligence operations and funding destabilizing actions globally.
  3. China warned at a recent global meeting about the dangers of dividing the world into opposing systems. They emphasized the need for international cooperation to tackle common challenges and maintain stability.

AI Oligarchs: Money Before Country, Again

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 115 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Industrial Policy Tech Policy Economic Policy Corporate Influence Regulatory Affairs
  1. U.S. industrial policy has focused on moving jobs overseas to benefit the wealthy, which has hurt the country's economy. Instead of helping the average person, it seems to make the rich even richer.
  2. The tech industry in the U.S. has missed out on competition and innovation because companies put profit before progress. This has allowed cheaper and better technologies from other countries, like China, to take over.
  3. Lina Khan, a regulatory leader, warned that lack of competition in the tech industry would hurt U.S. companies in the long run. It looks like her concerns have come true as American firms are now struggling against more agile competitors.

Why Are Gold And The Dollar Trading Together?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Commodities Market Trends Economic Policy Global Markets
  1. Gold and the US Dollar are sometimes moving together, which can indicate stress in the global market. This unusual connection raises questions about economic stability.
  2. Central banks influence both gold prices and the dollar's value. Higher interest rates can make the dollar seem more appealing, but many still look to gold to protect against inflation.
  3. Events like political chaos and wars can make people feel uncertain, leading them to invest in gold as a safe option during tough times.

Fed Pivots to More Hikes, More Pain

cryptoeconomy • 648 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economic Policy Monetary Policy Inflation Banking Investing
  1. The Federal Reserve is planning more interest rate hikes and tightening measures, signaling potential economic pain.
  2. Despite initial expectations of a pause in rate hikes due to economic impacts not yet fully realized, Fed Governor Waller is advocating for further hikes to curb inflation.
  3. Quantitative Tightening, the reversal of money printing, may be the next step for the Fed despite past failures, raising concerns of potential economic disruptions and widespread impacts.

The National Defense Argument

Economic Forces • 3 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Defense Policy Trade policy Tariffs Subsidies
  1. The national defense argument is often used to justify tariffs and subsidies. However, many economists view it skeptically, thinking it's a way for special interest groups to gain advantages.
  2. Earl Thompson's theory suggests that during wartime, price controls can distort markets. To fix this, policymakers might provide peacetime subsidies to help industries that would struggle because of these wartime distortions.
  3. Applying this theory today, tariffs on steel and aluminum may be reasonable since these materials are critical for national defense and are hard to import in times of war.

President

Venture Prose • 539 implied HN points • 05 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Economic Policy
  1. Being a president comes with immense challenges like managing debt, dealing with administrative issues, and navigating societal tensions.
  2. To make a country like France attractive, competitive, and profitable, leaders need to focus on positive impact, simplicity in implementation, and clear accountability.
  3. France has the potential to excel in areas like nuclear energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, and education, but effective automation and addressing system abuse are essential for profitability.