The hottest Investment Strategies Substack posts right now

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Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Investment Strategies Market Analysis Economic Policy Real Estate
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to a lack of supply rather than too much demand. Cities are struggling to provide enough homes for their growing populations.
  2. Homeownership continues to decline because of demographic shifts and a severe housing shortage. Many people are forced to share living spaces instead of owning their own homes.
  3. There is a belief that adding more housing will lead to lower prices, but it often results in the opposite effect. More housing can create a sense of instability in the market, making things feel worse for current residents.

The Perverse Incentives Depreciating Your House

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Consumer behavior Investment Strategies
  1. Home prices are rising fast, making it hard for many people to think they'll ever own one. It's more of a struggle for the average person to afford a home nowadays.
  2. Builders often focus on making homes quickly and cheaply instead of making them durable and long-lasting. This means new homes might not hold their value as well as older ones.
  3. Homebuyers are not paying as much attention to quality. They’re more interested in lower prices, which can lead to issues later as newer homes may need repairs sooner.

The Year-End Money Market Storm

Concoda • 464 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Monetary Policy Financial Instruments Risk management
  1. Demand for funding is very high right now, causing banks to struggle. This could lead to big changes in money markets by the end of the year.
  2. Many traders are looking for ways to finance their stock trades, leading to more activity in repo markets. This means borrowing money using stocks as collateral is becoming common.
  3. There's a big challenge with U.S. government debt right now. The banks need to buy up a lot of unwanted debt at a time when borrowing money is getting tougher.

Data Update 2: A Stock Comeback - Winning the expectations game!

Musings on Markets • 919 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Market Trends Earnings Reports
  1. The stock market showed a strong comeback in 2023, recovering most losses from the previous year. However, the recovery was uneven, with a few big companies driving much of the growth.
  2. Investor expectations have shifted positively for 2024, with forecasts indicating controlled inflation and a soft landing for the economy. But, this positive sentiment poses challenges for equity investors as they must meet heightened expectations.
  3. Current stock valuations suggest that the market may be slightly overvalued. Investors should be cautious and consider potential risks when making decisions, as the future remains uncertain.

When venture incentives and founder needs diverge

Alex's Personal Blog • 164 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Entrepreneurship Investment Strategies Financial Incentives
  1. Venture capitalists can make money off their 2% fees without needing successful company exits. This creates a situation where they might prioritize raising more funds over helping founders succeed.
  2. Large venture funds may overpay for investments to quickly deploy capital, which can lead to problems for founders who might be offered too much money at high valuations.
  3. There's a debate about how much authors should be paid for their work being used in AI training. Some authors feel $2,500 per book isn't enough compensation for potentially being replaced by technology.
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All These Things That I Have Longed

Malt Liquidity • 17 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Speculation
  1. Markets are changing rapidly, and many people seem confused about their movements. This uncertainty can affect how prices are set.
  2. Information processing is key to trading today. Knowing how to filter through news and social media can give a trader an advantage.
  3. There is a growing concern that technology might soon outpace human intuition in trading. If everyone relies on AI, we might lose our ability to think critically about market dynamics.

Infographics: Intraday Repo Market Flows

Concoda • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Financial Instruments Banking
  1. The intraday repo market shows how cash moves between banks and institutions. It's important because it helps maintain stability in the financial system.
  2. Visual infographics can help people understand complex market flows clearly. They make the data accessible and engaging for everyone.
  3. Tracking daily repo market timings is useful for understanding financial trends. It allows investors to make informed decisions based on current market conditions.

Builder Incentives and Profits

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investment Strategies Economic Trends
  1. Builders like Lennar are using cash discounts to sell homes, which can create a misleading price for buyers. Buyers may end up paying more due to high 'menu prices' even if they think they are getting a good deal.
  2. There are risks for mortgaged buyers when home prices fall. They might be stuck with a mortgage amount that is higher than the real value of their home, leading to losses or foreclosure situations.
  3. Unlike in past housing crises, current market conditions have regulators and the Federal Reserve focused on avoiding a housing crash. The situation today is more stable, reducing the chances of a major crisis like in 2008.

Chaos kills coordination

Economic Forces • 10 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Economic Policy Investment Strategies Market Dynamics
  1. Chaos in policies can hurt the economy by making it hard to predict what will happen next. This uncertainty stops businesses from wanting to invest money.
  2. When prices change unpredictably, they become less helpful as signals for making decisions. This means people may hold off on projects that could benefit the economy.
  3. A stable set of rules is important for economic growth. Even if policies aren't perfect, having clear and consistent ones helps businesses and workers plan for the future.

A Crash vs. a Correction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Price analysis Investment Strategies
  1. The Erdmann Housing Tracker helps understand the reasons behind changes in housing prices. It can show whether a price change is due to a crash or a correction.
  2. Using examples from places like Phoenix and Austin can clarify how different factors influence real estate trends. Looking at specific cities can provide a clearer picture.
  3. Being aware of market trends can help you make smarter decisions in buying or selling homes. It's important to understand what is happening in the housing market.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 318 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Monetary Policy Liquidity management Investment Strategies
  1. The Federal Reserve is not worried about the debt ceiling impacting its plans to reduce its balance sheet. They believe liquidity in money markets is still high.
  2. The U.S. Treasury has enough resources to manage until around mid-2025, but any delays in addressing the debt ceiling could create funding issues.
  3. Equity repos, which involve borrowing cash using stocks as collateral, are becoming more popular. This trend is linked to rising demand and values of equities.

MAPS: Half-Baked Governance

Nongaap Investing • 47 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Corporate Governance Stock Market Investment Strategies Mergers & Acquisitions
  1. WM Technology's stock price is reacting to a non-binding buyout proposal. The offer of $1.70 per share seems low compared to the company's potential growth targets.
  2. The recent appointment of a new CEO and his equity compensation raises red flags about the timing and motivation behind the proposal. There are concerns about whether the company is acting in the best interests of all shareholders.
  3. The governance practices at WM Technology may involve manipulation, especially regarding stock compensation and the timing of news releases. This creates distrust among investors about the sincerity of the management's intentions.

A Year in Review

The Last Bear Standing • 45 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends
  1. 2024 showed a strong bull market, with big tech and AI leading the way while smaller companies struggled early on.
  2. Mid-year, signs of inflation and unemployment triggered some market concerns but were quickly eased by positive economic data and rate cuts.
  3. In general, equities did well this year, while bonds had a tougher time, especially U.S. Treasuries, which struggled with rising yields.

Data Update 4 for 2024: Risk enters the Equation

Musings on Markets • 479 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Risk Analysis Investment Strategies Market Trends Corporate Finance Economic Factors
  1. Risk is not just a bad thing; it's a mix of danger and opportunity. To succeed, you sometimes need to embrace the right risks instead of avoiding them.
  2. Different types of risks exist, like economic and estimation uncertainties. It's important to identify and categorize them to make better investment decisions.
  3. Risks can vary significantly between companies and countries. Understanding these differences can help investors assess potential returns and make smarter choices.

It’s good business, but knee-bending is gross

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💼 Business Corporate Governance Market Trends Economic Policy Investment Strategies
  1. Chip stocks are doing well because of high demand for AI servers, especially after positive news from Foxconn. This growth indicates a strong start for the tech sector in 2025.
  2. There are concerns about the current concentration of power in US politics, particularly with Trump in charge. Many companies feel the need to align with him for their business safety, which is seen as distasteful.
  3. Sam Altman believes we are making progress toward advanced AI and that it could significantly change industries. He is optimistic about the future of AI, stating it could lead to greater innovations and prosperity.

Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Strategies
  1. There's a discussion about housing trends, led by Mike Simonsen from Altos Research. It's important to know what's happening in the housing market right now.
  2. The video linked offers insights on various housing aspects. Watching it can help you understand current market conditions better.
  3. CalculatedRisk Newsletter is supported by its readers. Subscribing helps the creator continue sharing valuable information.

Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Risk Assessment Financial Data
  1. Interest rates are rising, affecting both stocks and bonds. This change can make it harder for investors to predict market movements.
  2. Only a few big tech companies are driving market gains, which shows the performance isn't shared evenly across all stocks. If you didn’t invest in those top companies, your returns might not be great.
  3. There are still uncertainties about inflation and the economy, making it hard to predict what will happen next. Investors continue to swing between hope and worry.

The VC Corner 📰 #13

The VC Corner • 319 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investment Strategies Market Trends SaaS
  1. Y Combinator wants startups to focus on finding the right product metrics. This will help them measure success and make better decisions.
  2. Understanding the SaaS IPO landscape is important for startups. It gives insights into how to get ready for going public and attract investors.
  3. Raising capital can be easier with the right tools like Fundingstack.com. They help connect startups with a large network of investors.

Trading The Digital Wave

DeFi Education • 659 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
🔮 Crypto Digital Currency Market Manipulation Investment Strategies Case Studies DeFi
  1. DWF Labs has investments that have recently faced issues with market manipulation, specifically 'pump and dump' schemes. This means that some traders artificially boost a coin's price and then sell off their holdings for profit, leaving others with losses.
  2. The article explains how these market manipulations are engineered and provides examples of three coins affected. Understanding these cases can help investors avoid similar traps in the future.
  3. It's important for investors to be aware of how market dynamics work, especially in the volatile world of digital currencies. Educating yourself can make a big difference in making smarter trading decisions.

Performative Failure

Investing 101 • 69 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Entrepreneurship Investment Strategies Risk management
  1. Performative failure, where people act as if they are failing for show, can prevent real learning and growth. It's better to genuinely take risks and embrace true failure.
  2. Shame often stops people from trying because they confuse their self-worth with their success or failure. It’s important to separate who you are from what you achieve.
  3. Choosing the right challenges to pursue is key. Aiming for meaningful goals makes any failures valuable and worthwhile, as they contribute to growth and character.

Market Resilience or Investors in Denial: The Market at Mid-Year 2023

Musings on Markets • 799 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Stock Market Risk management
  1. The first half of 2023 surprised many investors who expected a tough year, as markets unexpectedly improved despite fears of inflation and recession.
  2. Tech companies, especially big names like Apple and Microsoft, drove the stock market's gains, while some sectors like energy struggled.
  3. Overall, it's important to stay humble in investing because predicting market trends is extremely difficult, and what goes up can also come down.

From Runway to Career Capital: A Framework for Evaluating Startup Jobs

Optima & Outliers • 59 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
💼 Business Startups Career development Job Market Investment Strategies Risk management
  1. When considering a startup job, focus on how it will help your career instead of just picking a 'winner'. Think about your long-term goals and how the role aligns with them.
  2. Do your homework before joining a startup. This means asking about the company's funding, goals, and speaking with people who know the founders to understand their track record.
  3. Look for opportunities to learn and build connections in a startup. These experiences can boost your resume and help you grow your professional network.

The Most Misleading Chart

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Economic outlook Investment Strategies
  1. A commonly shared chart about U.S. credit card debt is misleading and creates unnecessary panic. It's crucial to look at the bigger picture to understand what this number really means.
  2. Despite rising credit card debt, consumers are still confident and spending money, which is often a good sign for the economy and stock market.
  3. When you see alarming headlines about growing credit card debt, remember that it's important to consider the overall context and how it reflects consumer behavior.

How Liquidity Impacts Market Crashes

DeFi Education • 599 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Risk management Market Analysis Cryptocurrency
  1. Low liquidity can cause big price drops in markets, meaning even small buy or sell orders can affect prices a lot. This can lead to more volatility and crashes.
  2. Market makers provide important liquidity, but they may pull back during volatile times. This makes it harder for traders to buy or sell quickly without impacting prices.
  3. Knowing when liquidity is low can help investors manage risks better. By watching market conditions, investors can make smarter decisions about when to trade or hold their assets.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 10th, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Economic Events Earnings Reports Investment Strategies Global Economics
  1. The stock market went up after Trump's election, as investors seem unsure if he will actually change global trade and deport many people.
  2. This week is important for tech earnings, with companies like Spotify and Disney sharing their financial results.
  3. Keep an eye on economic events like consumer confidence and inflation rates in different countries throughout the week.

What does a Commodity Trader do?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Trading Commodities Market Analysis Risk management Investment Strategies
  1. Commodity traders buy and sell things like oil, gold, and wheat. They try to predict price changes based on global events to make profits.
  2. Their work impacts everyday prices for many products we use, helping producers manage risks and securing stable prices for the future.
  3. Traders pay attention to weather, politics, and market feelings to make informed decisions, using tools like futures contracts and diversification to manage risks.

The VC Corner 📰 #12

The VC Corner • 239 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Market Trends Investment Strategies
  1. Venture capital distributions are at a 14-year low, indicating a shift in investment trends. This could mean less money is flowing into startups right now.
  2. The bar for companies going public is getting higher. It's becoming tougher for businesses to meet the requirements to launch their IPOs.
  3. There are 20 tech trends to keep an eye on for 2024. Watching these trends can help investors and startups stay ahead in the industry.

Crypto's Fork in the Road

DeFi Education • 579 implied HN points • 20 Aug 23
🔮 Crypto Digital Assets Investment Strategies Market Dynamics Decentralized Finance
  1. The cryptocurrency market is splitting into two main groups: builders and institutions versus casual or speculative traders. This means that projects may start focusing more on serious investors rather than just the retail crowd.
  2. Institutional investors work differently than retail traders. They think long term and have to follow strict rules, while retail traders can move quicker and are less regulated.
  3. For those involved in crypto, being open about your identity can help you gain more trust and attention, as doxxed individuals may have an edge over those who stay anonymous.

Philosophical economics: The golden calf of business and finance

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Tax policy Economic Growth Fiscal policy Investment Strategies Corporate Finance
  1. Cutting taxes isn't always the best option for improving the economy. Sometimes, raising taxes can actually help fund important things like infrastructure and education.
  2. There's a lot of disagreement about whether low taxes lead to higher profits and growth. In reality, many developed countries show no clear link between tax rates and economic growth.
  3. It's important to consider how tax money is spent. If governments invest in useful projects, they can create more value than just cutting taxes.

Q3 2024: Clock Starts Anew

Interconnected • 46 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Policy Investment Strategies
  1. The new fund started on October 1, focusing on technology related to cloud computing and AI. This means the fresh investments will reflect the latest strategies and insights.
  2. Big tech companies like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud are showing strong growth, indicating a possible recovery in the cloud market. This is an exciting time for investing in these sectors.
  3. With the upcoming U.S. elections and economic changes, there may be market fluctuations. It's better to stay calm and stick to long-term investing rather than reacting to short-term news.