The hottest Investment Strategies Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

From Runway to Career Capital: A Framework for Evaluating Startup Jobs

Optima & Outliers • 59 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. When considering a startup job, focus on how it will help your career instead of just picking a 'winner'. Think about your long-term goals and how the role aligns with them.
  2. Do your homework before joining a startup. This means asking about the company's funding, goals, and speaking with people who know the founders to understand their track record.
  3. Look for opportunities to learn and build connections in a startup. These experiences can boost your resume and help you grow your professional network.

The Shadow Cash Market: Part I

Concoda • 318 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The U.S. Treasury market is being improved to handle more debt while keeping yields low. This is important for preventing problems in the financial system.
  2. There are new efforts to make the Treasury market more stable and reliable, like easing rules for hedge funds. These steps help ensure that investors can buy and sell easily.
  3. A new part of the market, called the Shadow Cash Market, is helping to provide extra cash flow. However, this hidden area might also have risks that could affect major financial players in the future.

How Liquidity Impacts Market Crashes

DeFi Education • 599 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Low liquidity can cause big price drops in markets, meaning even small buy or sell orders can affect prices a lot. This can lead to more volatility and crashes.
  2. Market makers provide important liquidity, but they may pull back during volatile times. This makes it harder for traders to buy or sell quickly without impacting prices.
  3. Knowing when liquidity is low can help investors manage risks better. By watching market conditions, investors can make smarter decisions about when to trade or hold their assets.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

What does a Commodity Trader do?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Commodity traders buy and sell things like oil, gold, and wheat. They try to predict price changes based on global events to make profits.
  2. Their work impacts everyday prices for many products we use, helping producers manage risks and securing stable prices for the future.
  3. Traders pay attention to weather, politics, and market feelings to make informed decisions, using tools like futures contracts and diversification to manage risks.

The VC Corner 📰 #12

The VC Corner • 239 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Venture capital distributions are at a 14-year low, indicating a shift in investment trends. This could mean less money is flowing into startups right now.
  2. The bar for companies going public is getting higher. It's becoming tougher for businesses to meet the requirements to launch their IPOs.
  3. There are 20 tech trends to keep an eye on for 2024. Watching these trends can help investors and startups stay ahead in the industry.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 183 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The RRP is now at zero, meaning that banks are using all their cash effectively without too much excess cash lying around.
  2. Money market rates are stabilizing, and there are more places to lend money again, helping to keep the market from getting too volatile.
  3. Expect at least one interest rate cut soon, as the economic growth is slow and inflation is still a concern.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 259 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Bonds are in a good spot right now, with strong demand from investors despite some market ups and downs. They are seen as safe and still attractive to buy.
  2. The U.S. Treasury is focusing more on short- and middle-term debt instead of long-term bonds, which could impact interest rates. This shift might help them manage national debt more effectively.
  3. There could be some challenges ahead, like the potential for turmoil if debt levels are not managed well, especially as banks and investors navigate new regulations.

Crypto's Fork in the Road

DeFi Education • 579 implied HN points • 20 Aug 23
🔮 Crypto Investment Strategies
  1. The cryptocurrency market is splitting into two main groups: builders and institutions versus casual or speculative traders. This means that projects may start focusing more on serious investors rather than just the retail crowd.
  2. Institutional investors work differently than retail traders. They think long term and have to follow strict rules, while retail traders can move quicker and are less regulated.
  3. For those involved in crypto, being open about your identity can help you gain more trust and attention, as doxxed individuals may have an edge over those who stay anonymous.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 237 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The recent debt limit uncertainty is making it harder for banks to get the money they need, which will likely push interest rates up. We can expect funding pressures in money markets to grow.
  2. The Federal Reserve plans to cut down on reserves, which means banks might have to compete more for cash. This could lead to the Fed needing to step in with measures to pump money into the system.
  3. Demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is holding steady despite fiscal worries. However, if concerns about the economy rise again, it could lead to changes in investment behavior.

What 'Institutional Ready' Means for Emerging VC Funds (X-Post)

Law of VC • 268 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Emerging VC funds need to show they are 'institutional ready' to attract capital. This means they must have solid operational practices like audits and compliance in place.
  2. The venture capital landscape is changing, with large funds dominating the capital flow. Many emerging managers are now developing structured approaches to compete effectively.
  3. To succeed, emerging funds should build a strong foundation early on. Having a clean data room and understanding institutional requirements can set them apart in a crowded market.

Is being data driven a fad?

benn.substack • 843 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. The way we value companies might be changing. Instead of just looking at numbers, people are considering things like hype and public interest.
  2. Being data-driven used to be seen as a key to success, but now it seems less effective for some businesses. There are successful examples, but many companies struggle to use data well.
  3. Cultural factors, or 'taste', are becoming more important in the business world than just relying on data. This shift might mean that how people feel about a company matters just as much as the finances.

How to Avoid Becoming a VC Meme and Actually Add Value

The Generalist • 700 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Venture capitalists should focus on actually helping founders by connecting them with great talent, customers, and funding. It's important not just to say you add value, but to really do something meaningful.
  2. It's better for investors to set realistic expectations about their contributions. Overpromising can damage relationships with founders, so honesty about what you can offer is key.
  3. Investors should respect the founder's role and not try to take over. They bring valuable insights but need to let entrepreneurs lead their own companies and make their own decisions.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 281 implied HN points • 20 May 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Cash is flowing back into the money markets, leading to calmer conditions. This means there's plenty of cash available, which is a good sign.
  2. The recent panel discussions revealed that issues in the market were influenced by trade tariffs and how they affected different types of financial trades. Understanding these factors can help make better investment decisions.
  3. Despite some panic over the Moody's downgrade, experts believe it's not a big deal and the U.S. Treasuries are still a safe bet. Overall, it's a stable time to consider investing in Treasuries.

How VCs Build Soft Power

The Generalist • 780 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Soft power is important for venture capitalists because it helps them stand out in a competitive market. It’s not just about money but also reputation and influence.
  2. Building soft power takes time, but new VCs can start quickly by finding their unique voice and using online platforms to share their ideas.
  3. Learning from experienced investors can help avoid common pitfalls. They share their mistakes and successes to help others grow their soft power effectively.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 243 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The money market is currently stable, with dealers holding more U.S. Treasuries. This might lead to more relaxed conditions in the market.
  2. Investors are not as worried about future issues with T-bills as they were during the previous debt ceiling crisis. This suggests a more confident market outlook.
  3. Upcoming auctions of longer-term bonds are expected to attract foreign investors, which could positively impact yields despite fears about rising rates.

Financial Contract-for-Differences

GEM Energy Analytics • 319 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The EU is making Contract-for-Differences the main way to support new renewable and nuclear energy projects. This will help create stable financial conditions for these investments.
  2. A traditional CfD can remove market price incentives for energy producers, leading them to produce electricity regardless of demand. This is not ideal because it can flood the market and reduce overall value.
  3. The new idea of a financial CfD separates payments from actual production, giving producers a goal to increase the value of their electricity instead of just maximizing how much they produce. This could lead to better management of resources.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 443 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The Federal Reserve is continuing its balance sheet reduction to avoid financial crises, with expectations of it ending by June.
  2. The U.S. Treasury might reduce its issuance of short-term bills to save costs, especially if the Fed maintains its current policies.
  3. Despite challenges like a strong dollar and global tensions, risk assets are anticipated to perform better than bonds in the near future.

The Importance (and Shortcomings) of a Data-Driven Approach in Venture Capital

patternventures • 198 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Venture capital is a great field for using data because it can really improve the investment process. By analyzing data, investors can more easily find and support promising startups.
  2. Some key performance indicators (KPIs) have been shown to correlate with the success of funds. For example, funds scoring above 30% on specific KPIs are much more likely to provide high returns.
  3. While data-driven strategies are helpful, they aren't perfect. Investors still need solid experience and networks to truly understand fund performance and secure access to the best opportunities.

Spotlight: Michael Mealling - General Partner @ Starbridge Venture Capital

Space Ambition • 79 implied HN points • 03 May 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. The key to successful investing in spacetech is understanding market structures and leveraging a strong network. This helps in identifying real opportunities amid hype.
  2. Using the Integrated Space Plan (ISP) aids in spotting gaps and potential growth areas in the industry. It's important to ensure there are actual customers for new technologies.
  3. When reaching out to potential investors, concise and clear pitches about the business model are crucial. It's more effective to focus on solving customer problems rather than just showcasing technology.

READING/HOISTED: From 2021: Matt Levine Is Bewildered by the Financial Economics of Elon Musk

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Elon Musk's influence on investments shows that value now often comes from social dynamics and celebrity power rather than traditional financial metrics. His tweets can drive prices up just because many people decide to buy into his hype.
  2. The rise of assets like GameStop and Dogecoin highlights a new way people coordinate their purchases online, often based on collective agreement rather than a solid analysis of the underlying value.
  3. Money and value are becoming less about concrete assets and more about social perceptions and internet culture. As social media evolves, how we view and use money is changing too.

Spotlight: Jonathan Lacoste - General Partner @ Space.VC

Space Ambition • 179 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Investing in space tech has huge potential. It's becoming a key part of important industries like defense, agriculture, and communication.
  2. When looking to invest early, focus on the founding team and the size of the customer market. Successful relationships can be built before a product even exists.
  3. Finding big problems to solve is better than starting with a tech idea. Look for large markets that could benefit from smart space applications.

Discounting the Future: Financial Markets, Memory, & the Mirage of ‘Normal’

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 192 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Financial markets are uncertain right now, with discount rates showing anxiety about growth and policy directions. It's a confusing time that could lead to either growth or recession.
  2. The Federal Reserve is divided on its future rates, indicating a cautious approach as they wait for more data. Mixed opinions exist about how to respond to inflation and economic conditions.
  3. The concept of a 'normal' economy has changed significantly since the 1990s. Today, interest rates and inflation are at levels that do not align with past expectations, leading to a new financial landscape.

The Year-End Money Market Storm

Concoda • 464 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Demand for funding is very high right now, causing banks to struggle. This could lead to big changes in money markets by the end of the year.
  2. Many traders are looking for ways to finance their stock trades, leading to more activity in repo markets. This means borrowing money using stocks as collateral is becoming common.
  3. There's a big challenge with U.S. government debt right now. The banks need to buy up a lot of unwanted debt at a time when borrowing money is getting tougher.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 405 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The upcoming U.S. presidential inauguration and a new Treasury Secretary may lead to changes in the money market. This could create opportunities for profits.
  2. The debt ceiling issue is affecting liquidity and will lead to market volatility. When resolved, it will change the flow of money in the markets.
  3. Foreign investors are becoming more interested in U.S. Treasuries due to better returns. This could impact how these markets operate in the near future.

Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the Table

Musings on Markets • 779 implied HN points • 07 Jan 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Having too much data can be overwhelming and lead to distractions. It's important to focus on the most relevant information when making decisions.
  2. Data should not be seen as the only answer; personal judgment and reasoning are essential in analysis. Relying solely on data can hinder good decision-making.
  3. Data can be biased and subjective, even though many think of it as purely objective. It's crucial to be mindful of how data is presented and used.

The Bonds And The Stock Market

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The stock market has experienced various crashes in the past, but today there are better systems in place to prevent a major crash like in 1987. It's still possible to see market dips, but the overall structure is stronger now.
  2. Interest rates on government bonds are rising, which could impact the stock market negatively if rates reach certain levels. Keeping an eye on these rates is important for understanding market trends.
  3. Government spending is a concern, and both political parties aren't talking about reducing it. If spending continues unchecked, it could lead to serious economic issues in the future.

What I read in September 2023

Asian Century Stocks • 314 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The author read 14 write-ups in September from sources like Value Investors Club and Substack.
  2. They believe JD.com and China Tower may be undervalued, while Ossia International and Ming Fai may have potential upside.
  3. There are concerns about Midea's exposure to the Chinese property market, but the company's strong market position and growth indicate potential resilience.

The Nvidia economy and the benefits of toilet paper.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Nvidia is rising fast in the market and could soon be worth more than Apple. Experts believe its growth is different from the tech bubble of the past.
  2. During election years, the stock market often has ups and downs, but usually rallies in the second half. Historical trends show that certain sectors perform better depending on who wins the election.
  3. Investors should look for companies with strong 'moats' that protect them from risks. Essential products like toothpaste and toilet paper are always in demand, making companies like Procter & Gamble good choices.

Making Markets in Time

Pivotal • 394 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Silicon Valley focuses on 'temporal arbitrage', which is about making money over time by investing at different stages of a startup's growth. This helps investors bridge gaps between early ideas and established companies.
  2. The modern venture capital system divides funding into specific stages, like seed and series rounds. Each investor specializes in different stages, making the process smoother and more efficient.
  3. Success in venture capital often comes from being part of a shared consensus on what makes a company fundable. Investors try to follow trends rather than go against the grain to align with what other investors believe.

Living Legends: Finance & Investing

Olshansky's Newsletter • 22 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. A small group of investors created the major investing styles we use today—value, macro, quantitative, activist, and systematic risk approaches.
  2. Each legend contributed a distinct mental model or tool that changed how markets are understood: durable-business investing and capital allocation, reflexivity and macro bets, math- and data-driven trading, activist pressure tactics, and formal frameworks for debt cycles and risk.
  3. Their books, letters, trades, and firms turned bold ideas into standard practice, providing the foundational zero-to-one lessons that modern finance now refines and builds upon.

data-driven VC is over

State of the Future • 323 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. The way we research and develop investment ideas in venture capital is changing. Now, smaller firms can compete with big players because information is easier and cheaper to access.
  2. As everyone starts using the same data and insights, decision-making might become more about trusting your instincts than just following numbers. Investors might need to rely on what's not obvious or data-driven.
  3. The most successful investors in the future will be those who combine experience and wisdom with their specialized knowledge. It's not just about the data anymore; understanding what truly matters will set them apart.

Daily Chartbook #287

Daily Chartbook • 1519 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Global trade has fallen due to slowing global demand as interest rates rise.
  2. US credit spreads suggest Europe may face a recession while the US remains stable.
  3. History shows that once US food prices rise, they tend not to decrease.

Meta (Facebook) Lesson 1: Corporate Governance

Musings on Markets • 779 implied HN points • 07 Nov 22
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Corporate governance focuses on how companies are run and who gets to make decisions. It's important because when management and shareholder interests do not align, it can result in poor decisions that harm the company.
  2. Facebook's stock has dropped significantly because of issues like the slowdown in online advertising and reputational damage. These challenges highlight the need for better governance to adapt to changing market conditions.
  3. Investors often give up their voting power when companies use dual-class shares, which can limit their ability to influence management. This trend can make it harder to make necessary changes when a company's leadership is not effective.

The Bear Cave #243

The Bear Cave • 489 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Roblox has been accused of inflating its user numbers by including fake accounts and bots. This has raised safety concerns, especially regarding child safety on the platform.
  2. There have been multiple recent resignations of CFOs from various companies, often after short tenures. This may indicate instability or issues within those organizations.
  3. Some companies are being investigated for their marketing practices, including the use of questionable data sources for email campaigns. This raises questions about ethical business practices.

Understand Math Behind Secondary Sales, Measuring Startup Tractions, VC Daily Digest & More

Venture Curator • 239 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Secondary sales involve shareholders selling shares to buyers, different from primary sales where new shares are issued.
  2. Understanding the math behind secondary sales helps grasp ownership changes and value fluctuations for founders and investors.
  3. Evaluation of startup traction can be challenging for VCs due to factors like new markets, inexperienced founders, and limited financial history.