The hottest Risk management Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

AI And Late Stage Bubbles

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 30 implied HN points • 11 Nov 25
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. People are becoming more skeptical about AI technology. This change in attitude could lead to big reactions from investors later on.
  2. When regular investors start to realize the risks in AI, it might create a rush to pull out money. This could cause a chaotic market situation.
  3. It's important to watch for signs of trouble in AI investments. Being aware of these warning flags can help avoid potential losses.

Links - 03/07/2023

Value Investing World • 176 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Risk management involves recognizing that normal is a transition, not a state of nature.
  2. Berkshire Hathaway increased stake in Occidental to 22.2%.
  3. Various podcasts and articles on investing and business are available for learning and insight.

How AI security companies fail

Frankly Speaking • 254 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💼 Business Risk management
  1. AI security companies face both market and product risks. If there's no market for their products, they can't succeed.
  2. Startups often fail due to common issues like poor timing or operations. This is true for AI security startups as well.
  3. Many AI security companies are throwing out new ideas to see what works. This trial-and-error approach leads to uncertainty in the market.
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Testing Yourself

Points And Figures • 666 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Trading in the pits required strong self-belief and comfort with risk
  2. Success in trading was highly psychological, combining self-confidence, quick decision-making, and adaptation
  3. Venture capitalists who take real risks and make markets are more likely to succeed

There are different types of security organizations, and that's ok

Frankly Speaking • 203 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. There are many kinds of security organizations, and it's important to recognize that they each manage risks differently. This means not all tools will work for every organization.
  2. The cybersecurity industry has too many tools, which can create confusion and ineffective security management. Instead of just buying tools, companies should focus on building talent and critical thinking skills.
  3. Different businesses face different security risks, so their security needs should vary too. Tools should be tailored to meet these specific needs rather than forcing a one-size-fits-all solution.

Your Guide To Bull Market Pain Levels

The Lund Loop • 78 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Investors experience different levels of pain in a bull market, ranging from mild discomfort to severe distress.
  2. The Pain Assessment Scale categorizes bull market pain into three main levels: Pain Free, Mild Pain, Moderate Pain, and Severe Pain.
  3. Addressing issues like position sizing, risk management, and speculation can help alleviate bull market pain. Seeking help from a financial planner is advisable if symptoms persist or worsen.

Ergodic Development

Software Design: Tidy First? • 883 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Ergodicity reminds us to treat systems that continue as is differently from those that fail when changed.
  2. Strategies like reducing irreversibility and having skin in the game can help transform failing systems into sustaining ones.
  3. Load redistribution and encouraging collaboration can make development more survivable and sustainable.

What vulnerabilities were malicious actors focused on in 2022?

Resilient Cyber • 199 implied HN points • 14 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Malicious actors focused heavily on Microsoft vulnerabilities in 2022, highlighting the importance for organizations to stay updated with security patches.
  2. Vendors and developers should identify often exploited vulnerabilities and hold business leaders responsible for security practices.
  3. End-user organizations need to enforce strong security measures, like multi-factor authentication, and continuously monitor their systems to protect against possible threats.

DeFi for Passive Investors

DeFi Education • 1039 implied HN points • 20 Nov 21
🔮 Crypto Risk management
  1. Passive investing in DeFi can be a way for less active investors to earn returns. It allows them to participate in the market without needing to constantly manage their assets.
  2. Managing a DeFi portfolio still requires some understanding of risk management. Even passive investors should be aware of potential pitfalls and rewards.
  3. DeFi is becoming a major player in finance, and it can be beneficial for investors to explore these opportunities, even without active involvement.

Fearing the sheriff more than the bandits

Deploy Securely • 157 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. The fear of repercussions from authorities like prosecutors and regulatory agencies is often greater than that from hackers.
  2. Cybersecurity professionals and their teams face severe consequences for non-compliance, even if the breach was not entirely their fault.
  3. A flawed liability regime and focus on performative compliance rather than actual security measures contribute to the prioritization of checking boxes over protecting data.

How to define risk appetite and tolerance

Deploy Securely • 157 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Risk appetite is the baseline level of cybersecurity risk an organization is willing to accept.
  2. Risk appetite should be defined in fungible units like dollars or engineer-hours, not security-specific terms.
  3. Risk tolerance is the speed at which an organization must address risk above the established appetite to avoid compliance issues.

Diving Deeper on Liquidity Providing

DeFi Education • 879 implied HN points • 17 Jan 22
🔮 Crypto Risk management
  1. Liquidity providing can be complex, and many people don’t fully understand how changing markets can impact their investments. Knowing how to react to market movements is important.
  2. There are strategies to maximize gains and minimize risks when liquidity providing. Understanding the direction of coin movements can help you make better decisions.
  3. It's essential for investors to educate themselves continually about liquidity and market dynamics. Staying knowledgeable can lead to more successful outcomes in yield farming.

An Inflation Follow Up: The Disparate Effects on Companies

Musings on Markets • 659 implied HN points • 20 May 22
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Inflation affects companies differently, with some benefiting and others struggling. Investors are on the lookout for companies that can handle high inflation better.
  2. Companies with strong pricing power, low costs, and stable earnings tend to perform better during times of inflation. It's important for these companies to keep debts low and have short-term investment options.
  3. Historical trends show that small-cap and value stocks often outperform in high inflation periods. In 2022, stocks with solid cash flows and dividends have held their value better than riskier, money-losing companies.

#39: The AI Job Roles Hiding In Plain Sight

OSS.fund Newsletter • 18 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
💼 Business Risk management
  1. AI job opportunities are growing fast in roles that help evaluate and manage AI systems rather than just building models. These roles focus on proving that the AI is safe and effective.
  2. There is a high demand for skilled professionals in AI evaluation, but many companies struggle to find enough talent. Workers with these skills can expect better job growth and higher wages compared to other sectors.
  3. The EDSO model breaks down AI evaluation roles into four key positions: Echo (strategist), Delta (engineer), Sigma (operator), and Omega (partner). Understanding these roles can help individuals identify career paths and companies to build strong AI oversight teams.

Risk Capital and Markets: Temporary Pull Back or Long term Retrenchment?

Musings on Markets • 579 implied HN points • 02 Jul 22
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Risk capital is money invested in risky assets, while safety capital is for safer investments. Finding the right balance between these two is important for a healthy economy and market.
  2. Market changes in risk capital can lead to higher risk premiums and impact the pricing of both stocks and bonds. When risk capital is scarce, default spreads increase for riskier investments.
  3. The current market may be facing a long-term pullback in risk capital due to factors like inflation, which can affect stock prices and investors' willingness to take risks.

Enovix (ENVX) - Anatomy of a Lie (PART 1)

ESG Hound • 866 implied HN points • 05 Jul 23
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Enovix Management has repeatedly misled customers about their manufacturing capabilities and volumes.
  2. Management at Enovix made significant downgrades to their production capacity without updating investors.
  3. ENVX has exhibited a pattern of dishonesty through inaccurate statements to investors and regulatory agencies.

There are Complex-Number One-Norm Square-Root of Probability Amplitudes of 0.006 in Which Sam Bankman-Fried Is Happy

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 676 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Amplitudes in quantum-mechanical superposition relate to philosophy-of-probability vs. psychology.
  2. Understanding the Kelly Criterion for betting based on win-loss odds and maximizing returns.
  3. Traders use the Kelly Criterion for survival, making positive-value bets, and psychological factors.

#38: Insurance isn't bought anymore. It's granted!

OSS.fund Newsletter • 18 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Insurance is becoming harder to get because many companies have outdated systems that are too risky. This makes it tough for businesses to secure adequate coverage.
  2. Insurers are also backing away from covering AI-related risks due to the uncertainty and complexity involved. This leaves companies feeling exposed when using AI.
  3. To navigate these challenges, businesses need to focus on strong governance practices. This includes having clear policies and safeguards in place to protect against potential liabilities.

Watched pots, petards and black ducks

The Jolly Contrarian • 179 implied HN points • 07 Apr 23
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Consider supporting independent content creators financially to help sustain quality content production.
  2. Complex regulations like Basel III can be so convoluted that even regulators may not fully understand the consequences, highlighting potential systemic risks.
  3. Banks need to focus on managing both known and unknown risks, including risks that may not be obvious or mentioned in regulations, to prevent potential disasters like financial crises and organizational failures.

Small multiplies

benn.substack • 485 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions have been aggressive in going for it on fourth downs
  2. Data can provide small advantages in decision-making, especially in frequent, low-leverage situations
  3. It's more effective to focus on doing what you're naturally good at and doing it consistently rather than constantly pursuing big data-driven optimizations

Thoughts on the contract-for-differences (CfD)

GEM Energy Analytics • 179 implied HN points • 31 May 23
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. A contract-for-difference (CfD) helps energy producers by giving them a stable price. This way, they won't lose money if market prices drop.
  2. CfDs can reduce the risk of high profits during energy crises, aiming to keep electricity prices lower for consumers. They're designed to share some of the financial risks between producers and the government.
  3. The success of CfDs depends on accurately predicting future energy prices, which is really hard. If prices drop too low, it could hurt new energy projects and make it tougher for power producers to plan.

Options for Beginners

DeFi Education • 799 implied HN points • 17 Dec 21
🔮 Crypto Risk management
  1. Options are contracts giving you the right to buy or sell an asset at a set price before a certain date. They help in managing risk and leveraging investments.
  2. Trading options is becoming popular, especially in DeFi. Understanding how to use options can create big opportunities as the market grows.
  3. When using options, be cautious of risks like time decay and volatility. It's important to know what you're doing to avoid costly mistakes.

How to build wealth with little risk

A Bit Gamey • 6 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Make lots of small, low-downside bets so failures are survivable but winners can run; structure optionality instead of gambling everything.
  2. Enter proven markets by copying what works and then improve on execution; cheap entry and fast learning beat trying to be original from day one.
  3. Protect wins by controlling costs and building simple moats, then be patient and let low fees and long-term compounding do the heavy lifting.

Security for AI: A lot is unknown

Frankly Speaking • 203 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Understanding AI is crucial for its security. If you don't understand how something works, it's hard to protect it.
  2. The basic security issues with AI are similar to existing security practices. Protecting data and conducting regular audits can help.
  3. Setting policies for AI security is important. This includes knowing what data is used and how internal AI tools are developed.

Risk-Free Rate: What is the Price of Risk?

DeFi Education • 759 implied HN points • 04 Jan 22
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. The risk-free rate is the return expected from a very safe investment, like U.S. Treasury bonds, and it helps investors judge the risk of other investments.
  2. As the risk-free rate rises, investors expect higher returns from riskier assets, meaning they want more compensation for taking on extra risk.
  3. In the world of DeFi, expected returns are usually much higher than traditional markets, but it’s important to understand the type of risks involved with different assets.

Secure-by-Design (and Demand)

Resilient Cyber • 119 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Software companies should take more responsibility for keeping their products secure. It's not fair for the burden of safety to rest solely on customers.
  2. Transparency is vital in building trust. Companies should openly share their security practices and incident reports to help everyone strengthen their defenses.
  3. Customers can drive change by choosing to buy from companies that promote secure products. When buyers demand safety, companies will start to respond.

The Elusive Built-in not Bolted-on

Resilient Cyber • 239 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Cybersecurity should be included from the start of product design, not added later. This means making security a priority throughout the whole development process.
  2. Products should come secure by default, so users don't have to figure out how to protect themselves. Just like cars come with seatbelts, software needs built-in security features.
  3. There needs to be accountability for software security. Companies should not shift the blame to users but should instead be responsible for ensuring their products are secure and safe to use.

Organizational technology for uncertainty work

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 119 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Uncertainty work is different from risk work. While risk work involves clear outcomes and known probabilities, uncertainty work deals with unknowns and needs flexible strategies.
  2. Everyday organizational processes shape how companies function. If these processes are based on outdated best practices that assume stability, they can hinder the ability to handle uncertainty.
  3. To succeed in uncertainty work, organizations must redesign their processes for hiring, goal-setting, and motivation. This means being open to change and creating conditions that encourage learning and adaptation.

How Banks Are Adjusting for Risk

The Sunday Morning Post • 117 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Banks are tightening lending standards due to economic uncertainty and risk concerns
  2. Banks are responding by decreasing loan-to-value ratios, adding interest rate premiums, and shortening loan maturities
  3. Borrowing money from banks will become tougher in the coming months due to higher interest rates and stricter underwriting standards

Rollups vs. Appchains / Subnets

DeFi Education • 499 implied HN points • 25 Jun 22
🔮 Crypto Risk management
  1. Rollups help scale blockchains by bundling transactions together, making them faster and cheaper to process. They work by doing most of the computation off-chain and then posting the results on-chain.
  2. Appchains, or subnets, are independent chains that can run their own rules while still being connected to a main blockchain. This allows for more customization and flexibility in how they operate.
  3. Both rollups and appchains face different regulatory risks, which can affect how they grow and are accepted in the market. It's important for developers to consider these risks when choosing which to use.