The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

AI And Late Stage Bubbles

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 30 implied HN points • 11 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis Tech Stocks
  1. People are becoming more skeptical about AI technology. This change in attitude could lead to big reactions from investors later on.
  2. When regular investors start to realize the risks in AI, it might create a rush to pull out money. This could cause a chaotic market situation.
  3. It's important to watch for signs of trouble in AI investments. Being aware of these warning flags can help avoid potential losses.

Top Links 592 The upside of inflation. Warhammer and the British economy & the Cesarean boom.

Chartbook • 271 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Economics Inflation Business Market Trends Debt
  1. Inflation can have positive effects on the economy. It's important to understand how it can sometimes benefit different sectors.
  2. The Warhammer gaming franchise is linked to the British economy in interesting ways. It shows how cultural phenomena can impact financial trends.
  3. There has been a rise in the rate of Cesarean births, often referred to as a boom. This trend raises questions about healthcare practices and preferences.

Venture Capital Unbundled

Investing 101 • 235 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Venture Capital Investment Strategies Market Trends Business Models Economic Analysis
  1. Venture capital is shifting away from big brands and focusing more on individual investors. People want to work with specific individuals who they feel are genuine and relatable.
  2. Many investors are moving around to find better opportunities or roles, but this trend is also about the changing business model in venture capital. Investors are looking for ways to adapt and thrive in a new landscape.
  3. The term 'venture capital' is becoming less useful as it tries to cover many different investment strategies. There is a need for diverse approaches and voices in building startups, which is exciting and refreshing.

📉⤵ A Quick Q&A on the economics of 'degrowth' ... with economist Brian Albrecht

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Economics Policy AI Health Clean Energy
  1. Degrowth advocates argue against continuous economic growth as it may harm society.
  2. Using GDP alone to measure a country's success is limiting; consider a fuller set of indicators.
  3. Mandating fewer work hours might save resources initially but could hinder innovation and long-term sustainability.
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What is a Mutual Fund?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 339 implied HN points • 03 May 23
đź’° Finance Investing Mutual Funds Portfolio Management Financial Education Economic Trends
  1. A mutual fund combines money from many people to invest in things like stocks and bonds. This way, even if one investment doesn't do well, everyone shares the impact, reducing risk.
  2. There are different types of mutual funds, like equity funds for stocks and bond funds for fixed income. Each type focuses on different investments to suit various goals.
  3. People like mutual funds because they simplify investing. Instead of picking individual stocks, investors can buy a piece of many investments at once and still have the potential for good returns.

Revisiting One Last Funny Chart

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market Monetary Policy Economic Trends Investment Strategies
  1. Low interest rates are often thought to cause high housing prices, but the actual situation is more complicated and involves other factors.
  2. Migration from places like Los Angeles to Phoenix affected housing demand, suggesting that it wasn't just low rates driving the price spikes.
  3. There's debate about how much the increase in debt and risky borrowing contributed to the housing market issues, complicating the traditional narratives about housing crises.

How Banks (Zeros) Make Money

DeFi Education • 899 implied HN points • 12 Apr 22
đź’° Finance Banking Investments Cryptocurrency Regulation Asset management Revenue streams
  1. Banks make money by accepting deposits and giving loans. They charge fees for services like managing assets and processing transactions.
  2. Decentralized finance (DeFi) is changing how finance works, allowing people to cut out banks and manage their money directly. This means banks might lose some of their income.
  3. Crypto and other digital methods are making it easier for people to manage their money and investments without needing traditional banks. This could change the banking industry a lot in the future.

Alternative Assets Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Investing Assets Financial Education Market Trends Wealth Management
  1. Alternative assets are investments that aren't traditional stocks or bonds. They can include things like real estate, collectibles, and even parking lots, giving you many options to consider.
  2. Many people think only the rich can invest in alternative assets, but that's not true. There are plenty of investment opportunities available for regular investors too.
  3. Investing in alternative assets can be risky, but it also offers a chance to diversify and potentially earn good returns. It's important to research and understand what you're getting into.

December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate Mortgages Housing Market Lending Refinancing Home Equity Delinquencies
  1. Falling mortgage rates triggered a surge in refinances, lifting servicer refinance retention to a 3.5‑year high and making rate‑and‑term refinances the dominant activity; non‑bank servicers retained far more borrowers than banks.
  2. Mortgage performance strengthened as national delinquencies fell to about 3.34%, well below pre‑pandemic levels, although FHA loans remain an outlier with higher non‑current rates.
  3. Home prices firmed modestly with the ICE Home Price Index up 0.8% year‑over‑year in November, but gains are uneven — the Northeast and Midwest lead, the South and West lag, and single‑family homes are outperforming condos.

What Is Apple Up To With Its Digital ID?

Fintech Business Weekly • 22 implied HN points • 23 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Fintech Payments Banking Regulation Crypto Identity
  1. Apple now lets people create a Digital ID in Wallet from a U.S. passport, which greatly expands who can hold a mobile credential. Real-world acceptance is still very limited and mostly confined to TSA checkpoints.
  2. Apple is emphasizing privacy and minimal data sharing for its Digital ID and is playing a long game to grow user adoption so merchants and services will add support. This slow-but-steady approach aims to make use cases like KYC and travel booking more viable over time.
  3. Synapse’s Chapter 11 was dismissed but big questions remain about missing consumer funds, reserve money held by partners, and ongoing criminal and civil probes. At the same time, banks are striking open-banking fee deals and regulators are allowing banks to hold crypto for gas fees, showing shifting industry and regulatory dynamics.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 26 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Insights
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index showed a small increase of 1.0% year-over-year in October, which is lower than previous months. This trend suggests that house price growth is slowing down.
  2. Many states, including Florida and Texas, have seen significant declines in house prices from their recent peaks. Punta Gorda, for example, is now one of the worst-performing cities in terms of house prices.
  3. Overall, the housing market may face further challenges, with prices possibly turning negative by the end of 2025 due to increased inventory and low sales.

Life is like the S&P 500

That was bullshit and so can you • 176 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Life and success are not always linear - they have ups and downs like the stock market.
  2. Sometimes you might feel like things are going downhill, but remember, it could turn into a bull market.
  3. Keep pushing forward, even in tough times, because this is all part of the journey.

Banker Wonderland

Net Interest • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
đź’° Finance M&A Investment Banking Corporate Finance Financial Services
  1. M&A advisory is extremely lucrative, with firms and boutique bankers earning huge fees on big deals and the industry seeing record revenues and backlogs.
  2. The job is high‑pressure and time‑consuming, with bankers routinely working holidays and long hours to win and manage transactions.
  3. Pay is mostly success‑based—a percentage of deal value—so advisors do a lot of unpaid work hoping a few big wins will cover their costs, and appointments often hinge on personal relationships which can cause disputes.

Links - 03/13/2023

Value Investing World • 176 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Investing Banking
  1. When uncertain, we trust the crowd, assuming they know something we don't.
  2. The crowd is often wrong because they follow social proof, not superior information.
  3. Learn from individual experts and unique perspectives, rather than crowd mentality.

Rescheduling Update

Mindset Value • 176 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Investing Cannabis Stocks Taxation Government regulations
  1. The US government is signaling that cannabis is less dangerous by recommending rescheduling from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3.
  2. Rescheduling could lead to the removal of excessive taxation in the cannabis industry and open the door for more financial investments.
  3. Investment opportunities may arise with companies like Grown Rogue adapting to market conditions and demonstrating competitive advantages.

Is the Fed Financing the FDIC?

Without Warning • 176 implied HN points • 04 Sep 23
đź’° Finance Federal Reserve Insurance Banking Liquidity
  1. The FDIC is primarily funded by banking industry fees, not congressional appropriation.
  2. During the Global Financial Crisis, the FDIC did not borrow money from the Fed but instead used clever financial maneuvers like prepayments to maintain liquidity.
  3. The FDIC may be utilizing the Fed's loans as a form of financing, with evidence suggesting that FDIC guarantees are used to back these loans, allowing for liquidity creation.

More Problems at B. Riley (RILY)

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Investigation Stocks Auditing Fraud Regulatory issues
  1. The Bear Cave has raised concerns about B. Riley's ties and financial exposure to an accused fraudster, Brian Kahn, as well as regulatory and disclosure issues at the company.
  2. Short seller Marc Cohodes referred to B. Riley as the "biggest pound-for-pound financial fraud" he has seen.
  3. New evidence presented by The Bear Cave includes a potential departure of B. Riley's audit engagement partner, contradicting statements about a loan to Brian Kahn, and engagement of outside counsel by B. Riley's auditor in response to concerns.

Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash flows

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance Investment Strategies Cash Management Dividend Policy Market Trends
  1. Buybacks are becoming more common than dividends for companies to return cash to shareholders. Companies find buybacks more flexible and less of a commitment than regular dividend payments.
  2. Dividends should be one of the last steps in a company's financial decisions. If a company has no good investments, it should consider paying dividends or buybacks as a way to return cash to owners.
  3. There are tax differences between dividends and buybacks that may influence shareholder preferences. Although dividends used to be taxed more heavily, the gap has narrowed in recent years.

Net Interest 2025 Year in Review

Net Interest • 12 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Capital Markets Private Markets Investing Fintech Payments Crypto Regulation
  1. AI soaked up massive capital and is reshaping finance. Hyperscalers spent hundreds of billions on data centers, and AI is changing equity research and powering new payments and agent-driven sales.
  2. Private markets are growing into the role once held by public markets, with private equity and credit expanding rapidly but raising valuation and liquidity concerns. Some private valuations look stretched and could create coordination risks if sentiment shifts.
  3. Retail investors and fintech are changing market structure while crypto infrastructure advances. Retail trading share has risen and firms like Robinhood gained influence as stablecoins and tokenization grew under looser regulation.

The Transcript Q4 2022 Letter

The Transcript • 399 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Economy Inflation Market Analysis
  1. The economy is showing strong consumer spending and high inflation, causing uncertainty in monetary policy decisions.
  2. Financial stress alongside economic strength is creating a challenge for the Fed as they monitor inflation and labor market data.
  3. The S&P 500 index earnings are down and the market is at high valuations in comparison to historic norms, presenting a need for price adjustments for balance.

CPI 3.1%

Points And Figures • 666 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Markets Inflation Investing Policy Economics
  1. Inflation might be higher than reported due to isolated evidence like price increases in certain sectors.
  2. The government's policies are putting strong inflationary pressure on the economy, impacting various sectors and housing market.
  3. Business news sources may have biases and push narratives, so it's important to seek objective insights for informed decisions.

IPOs are underpriced

Something to Consider • 19 implied HN points • 25 Jun 24
đź’° Finance Stock Market Investments Economics Corporate Finance Market Trends
  1. IPOs, or initial public offerings, often sell for less than their true value. This means companies miss out on money they could have earned.
  2. There are better ways to sell shares, like auctions, that could help get a fairer price. Selling all shares at once is not ideal.
  3. Releasing shares gradually could lead to better pricing and less underpricing. This way, companies wouldn’t leave money on the table when they go public.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 308 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Market Analysis Federal Reserve Economic Indicators
  1. The money market faced a tough quarter-end, but there were no serious problems reported. Most banks didn't heavily rely on the Fed's emergency funding options this time.
  2. A new measure called reserve demand elasticity (RDE) suggests that the banks currently have enough reserves. This means the Fed can keep interest rates stable for now.
  3. Funding pressures are growing, but they haven't reached a critical point. This signals that while banks feel some strain, they are managing for the time being.