The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Investing Update: Has The Santa Rally Started?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 20 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets Equities ETFs Macro Investing Sectors
  1. Late-week strength in tech, especially AI-linked names, pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher while the Dow slipped but remains on a strong monthly streak.
  2. The S&P 500 is very close to the year-end target of 6,900 — it sits around 6,835 with only seven trading days left, so the target could be decided in the final week.
  3. Since November 21 there’s been a rotation into undervalued, cyclical and economically sensitive sectors, prompting speculation that the Magnificent 7 may underperform in 2026, though that shift may not be permanent.

Data Update 4 for 2023: Country Risk - Measures and Implications

Musings on Markets • 379 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investment Analysis Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Country risk affects investments everywhere, not just in emerging markets. Every country has its own level of risk, which is important for investors to understand.
  2. Investors need to look beyond just company performance and consider how a country's situation influences their investments. Government actions and country stability matter a lot.
  3. Assessing country risk involves looking at different factors like political stability and economic conditions. Measures like sovereign ratings and CDS spreads help evaluate this risk.

Semicap Stock Idea

Mule’s Musings • 102 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Financial trends Economic Research
  1. The article presents a stock idea related to semiconductors, a key industry for technology. Semiconductors are essential for a lot of modern devices, making them an important investment area.
  2. It's aimed at paid subscribers, which suggests that the insights may be more detailed or exclusive. Paid content often provides deeper analysis that can help investors make better decisions.
  3. Investing in the semiconductor sector may be beneficial due to its growing importance in the tech world. Understanding trends in this field can help guide smart investment choices.

Data Update 6 for 2023: The Upside and Downside of Debt!

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Debt Management Corporate Finance Investment strategy Risk Assessment Economic Trends
  1. Debt can be a useful tool for businesses to fund growth, but it also comes with risks. Finding the right balance of debt and equity is important for long-term success.
  2. There are good reasons to borrow, like taking advantage of tax benefits, and bad reasons, such as chasing higher returns that aren't real. It's crucial to understand the real costs.
  3. Companies often stick to past borrowing habits or follow what others in their industry do. This inertia can lead to too much or too little debt, which isn't always the best for their financial health.

The Physiocratic Platform: Banking

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 882 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
💰 Finance Banking Policy Reform Economic Theory
  1. The Physiocratic Platform focuses on reforming the banking system by replacing the Federal Reserve and fractional-reserve banking.
  2. The Chicago Plan advocates for full-reserve banking and government-issued equity money to avoid debt and inflation.
  3. Implementing the Chicago Plan can regulate credit cycles, prevent bank runs, reduce government debt, and boost long-term economic output.
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Economic Calendar for the Week of June 29th

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators Market Trends Investment Earnings Reports Global Economics
  1. This week has many important economic events scheduled, like the Chicago PMI and speeches from Fed officials. These could affect how the market moves.
  2. Globally, countries like Japan and Germany are also releasing key data such as housing starts and import prices. This shows how interconnected economies are.
  3. Friday celebrates July 4th in the U.S., but there are still notable earnings and economic events happening. It's a good reminder to keep an eye on the market even during holidays.

I Am Back: Exposing the Bullsh*t Market

Behavioral Value Investor • 282 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Cryptocurrency Economic Trends
  1. The author took a break from writing because it felt too scheduled and stressful, but now plans to write when inspired instead. This way, they can share better insights without pressure.
  2. There's a lot of strange behavior in today's markets, like people paying an outrageous amount for a banana or a company being valued more than its actual Bitcoin holdings. It shows how market psychology can be very irrational.
  3. Many financial indicators are warning signs of problems ahead, but people often ignore them because the current trends seem to last. It’s important to recognize these warnings to avoid repeating past mistakes in investing.

The Social Costs Of Inflation

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economics Family Dynamics Inflation Wealth Inequality
  1. Inflation affects family life in negative ways. It makes everything more expensive and changes how people make decisions about marriage and having kids.
  2. Working-class families suffer the most from inflation. They find it harder to keep up with rising costs, which makes it tough for them to form and maintain stable families.
  3. A return to sound money could help solve these problems. Fixing the financial system can improve family stability and rebuild society's foundations.

How VCs Evaluate & Make High-Quality Investment Decisions?

Venture Curator • 179 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investment Startup Venture Capital ROI Financial forecasting
  1. To understand VC investment decisions, consider the Venture Capital Method, where earnings and market support determine the firm's future value.
  2. Investors aim for successful exits with specific returns and use metrics like ROI and IRR to evaluate startup potential.
  3. Negotiations between VC firms and founders often involve ownership percentages based on future valuations and return expectations.

The Bear Cave #213

The Bear Cave • 583 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
💰 Finance Activist Reports Recent Resignations
  1. Activist reports on companies like LPP S.A. and Enfusion Inc. shed light on potential issues affecting their businesses.
  2. Recent resignations of notable executives from companies like Hertz Global Holdings and Turning Point Brands raise questions about leadership stability and financial health.
  3. Interesting reads include SEC charging former Tallgrass Energy board member with insider trading and Senator Josh Hawley calling for DOJ investigation into FICO for anticompetitive practices.

CFPB Proposes Rule To Close TILA Overdraft "Loophole"

Fintech Business Weekly • 661 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Regulation Banking Investing Fintech Economics
  1. CFPB proposed a rule to close the TILA overdraft loophole, aiming to protect consumers from billions in junk fees.
  2. The proposed rule would require large banks to treat overdrafts like credit products, disclosing APRs and considering actual costs.
  3. Exempting banks under $10 billion in assets from the rule has sparked debate, highlighting the complexity of regulating banking fees.

Problems at POET Technologies (POET)

The Bear Cave • 256 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Corporate Finance Market Trends Financial Analysis
  1. POET Technologies is working on an optical interposer technology, but it has very little revenue and a large debt, raising concerns about its long-term survival.
  2. The stock price of POET has risen dramatically this year, largely due to promotional campaigns rather than the company’s actual performance or growth.
  3. Several YouTube videos promoting POET were paid for by the company, which coincided with big jumps in stock price, suggesting that hype is driving interest more than solid fundamentals.

[2025–2026] Week 6: Benjamin Graham’s Security Analysis, Part 6

Behavioral Value Investor • 29 implied HN points • 07 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Stock Analysis Financial Statements Market Trends
  1. When analyzing a company's finances, it's important to look at more than just the income statement. You should consider the balance sheet and cash flow statements to get a fuller picture of the company's health.
  2. Benjamin Graham warns that income statements can be misleading due to factors like one-time costs or accounting tricks used by management. It’s essential to adjust your views based on these potential issues.
  3. Graham emphasizes the importance of management when looking at companies trading below their liquidation value. Good management can make a big difference in whether these investments are truly worthwhile.

Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Market Analysis Investment Housing policy
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.

Dissent and Debate: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation

Musings on Markets • 379 implied HN points • 03 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Market Analysis Economic Forecasting Corporate Finance
  1. There are strong opinions on both sides regarding Tesla's future value. Some believe it's undervalued, while others think it's overvalued, showing how divided people are about the company's potential.
  2. Revenue growth estimates are tricky; as companies get bigger, it's harder to keep high growth rates. The idea is that Tesla will reach a certain revenue and then grow slowly, like many large companies.
  3. Cost of capital is an important factor in valuing a company. For Tesla, using a realistic cost of capital helps in understanding its financial potential, even if different viewpoints exist on what that number should be.

Links - 01/11/2024

Value Investing World • 98 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Invest based on bottom-up analysis of companies, not macro forecasts.
  2. Have opinions on the macro, but don't bet clients' money on them.
  3. Be aware of current macro conditions when making investment decisions.

What's going on with Farfetch?

Philoinvestor • 117 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Company Updates Mergers & Acquisitions Financial Strategies
  1. Rumors and uncertainty around Farfetch's future are causing stock price fluctuations.
  2. There may be strategic partnerships and asset divestments in Farfetch's plan to improve liquidity.
  3. Farfetch is facing challenges, but potential deals and cost-cutting strategies may help improve the company's financial situation.

In "Debanking 2.0," Trump Sees Himself As A Victim of Discrimination

Fintech Business Weekly • 66 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Fintech Consumer Protection Investments
  1. Trump claims he's a victim of banks unfairly closing his accounts because of his political views. He feels this is discrimination against him and his supporters.
  2. An executive order by Trump aims to stop politicized banking practices that deny services based on beliefs. He wants banks to focus on fair, risk-based assessments instead of political affiliations.
  3. There are ongoing concerns about a proposed law that would require banks to serve all legal customers, regardless of the risks involved. This could make it harder for banks to manage their own risk effectively.

Top Links 552 Nasty bonds on underwater office buildings. Indian top earners in Germany. Avian flu & U.S. military food insecurity.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💰 Finance Bonds Investment Economics Corporate Market Trends
  1. There are problematic bonds tied to office buildings that may not hold value. This means investors could face significant losses.
  2. There are many Indian professionals earning high salaries in Germany. This indicates a strong presence of Indian talent in the German job market.
  3. Avian flu is affecting food security for U.S. military personnel. This raises concerns about the availability of safe food for those in service.

The Bear Cave #211

The Bear Cave • 583 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
💰 Finance Reports Resignations Social media
  1. Kerrisdale Capital and Capybara Research published critical reports on Carvana and SoundHound AI, highlighting concerns about valuation, growth prospects, and financial status.
  2. Recent high-profile resignations include executives from companies like Chemours, Outbrain, SunPower Corp, and New York Community Bancorp, raising various concerns like accounting practices, company performance, and leadership changes.
  3. The SEC charged Lordstown Motors with misleading investors about their electric vehicle, and Panera Bread's exemption from California's new $20 minimum wage law revealed through a Bloomberg report.

Economics and Business Links, 1/15

In My Tribe • 212 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have had complicated financial dealings with the Treasury. Their situation raises questions about privatization and how the accounting around their debts is handled.
  2. Eugene Fama argues that bubbles in market prices are hard to prove, suggesting that price swings are unpredictable and don't meet the classic idea of a bubble.
  3. Experts like Bill McBride believe there's concern about a housing bubble due to rising house prices, but he notes that lending standards are better now than during previous bubbles.

Who Will Fund the AI Century?

Dreams of Electric Sheep • 8 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Capital Markets Digital Currency Public Debt Private Credit
  1. AI needs far more capital and compute than traditional markets can easily provide, creating a trillion-dollar financing gap to build the necessary infrastructure.
  2. Stablecoins and tokenized dollar channels are positioned to fill that gap by minting dollar liquidity, buying Treasuries and other dollar assets, and enabling real-time, algorithmic settlement for machine-driven markets.
  3. That shift concentrates huge financial power in stablecoin issuers and ties national security to their health, raising systemic risks if trust or liquidity falters while also reinforcing dollar hegemony and greater state involvement in underwriting compute infrastructure.

Stock Talk - A Newsletter About Investing

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Analysis Dividends
  1. Traders are worried about the stock market because they expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. However, some experts believe the economy is stable enough for stocks to grow without rate cuts.
  2. Some major tech stocks, known as the 'Magnificent 7', are currently valued lower compared to their past. This suggests they might be a good buy compared to their earnings.
  3. Many companies are likely to increase their dividends significantly in the next few years. Investors might want to look at these dividend-growers for better returns.

Your Guide To Bull Market Pain Levels

The Lund Loop • 78 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Risk management Financial planning Speculation
  1. Investors experience different levels of pain in a bull market, ranging from mild discomfort to severe distress.
  2. The Pain Assessment Scale categorizes bull market pain into three main levels: Pain Free, Mild Pain, Moderate Pain, and Severe Pain.
  3. Addressing issues like position sizing, risk management, and speculation can help alleviate bull market pain. Seeking help from a financial planner is advisable if symptoms persist or worsen.

Time to Revisit: How Does This Assessment Look Fourteen Months Later?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 192 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There are two main views on inflation: 'Team Transitory' believes inflation will go away, while 'Team Persistent' thinks it will stick around. The debate is important to understand how to deal with the economy's ups and downs.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions, like raising interest rates quickly, play a big role in managing inflation. If the Fed hadn't acted as strongly, inflation expectations could have gone out of control.
  3. Past economic cycles were shaped by different factors, like wars and technological changes. Understanding these historical trends can help us navigate today's economy better.

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 22nd

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Events Market Trends Corporate Earnings Consumer confidence Global Economy
  1. The economic calendar for the week includes important U.S. events like existing home sales and Fed speeches. These can influence the financial markets and economic outlook.
  2. Major companies like FedEx and Nike are reporting their earnings this week. The performance of these companies can sway investor confidence.
  3. Global economic events are also happening in places like Spain and Canada, which can affect international markets. Keeping an eye on these events is key for understanding the bigger picture.

So... When Does The Economy Crash?

OK Doomer • 191 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economy Market Trends Investments Economic Policy
  1. Many experts are predicting an economic crash, but no one knows exactly when it will happen. People are worried about the potential impact of technology and global events.
  2. A lot of individuals are tied to their investments, making it hard for them to react quickly to market changes. Most people can't just sell off their stocks easily because of employer-based retirement plans.
  3. There’s a mix of genuine concern and opportunism in the market around impending crashes, with some people genuinely preparing and others just trying to sell fear-based products.

Learning from Under Armor's failed Big Data push [Finance Friday]

Technology Made Simple • 159 implied HN points • 14 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Financial Management Market Analysis Tech industry Business Ethics
  1. Data-driven decisions and AI can be valuable, but they must serve a larger purpose to avoid financial ruin.
  2. Investing heavily in technologies like Big Data without a clear strategy can lead to disaster, as seen with Under Armor's failed Big Data push.
  3. Leaders should carefully consider the cost and benefits of implementing AI into their processes, ensuring it aligns with their overall goals and strategy.

Even "All Time Highs" Feel Shitty

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 12 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economy Investing Debt Market Trends Consumer behavior
  1. The economy might be doing well according to headlines, but many regular people are struggling with debt and financial issues.
  2. Even when the stock market is at record highs, it doesn't reflect the financial realities for everyone, especially on Main Street.
  3. There's a disconnect between how Wall Street perceives success and how everyday Americans are actually feeling.

Top Links 545 “Restructuring” Bangladeshi banks. Hurricane Helen’s impact on unemployment. High-speed trading & a fracking good time.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💰 Finance Banking Economics Unemployment Trading Investment
  1. Bangladeshi banks are going through a big restructuring. This could change the way they operate and help improve their services.
  2. Hurricane Helene had a significant effect on unemployment rates. Many people lost their jobs because of the hurricane's impact.
  3. High-speed trading continues to play a lively role in the financial markets. It’s a fast-paced area that creates both opportunities and challenges.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Home Prices Economic Indicators Market Trends Sales Data
  1. Existing-home sales rose 0.5% in November to a 4.13 million SAAR but are about 1.0% lower than a year ago and have roughly hovered around a 4 million annual pace for the past three years.
  2. Inventory fell seasonally to 1.43 million and months-of-supply dropped to 4.2 months, yet inventory is up 7.5% year-over-year and is higher on a months-of-supply basis than before the pandemic.
  3. Median existing-home prices increased modestly, up 1.2% year-over-year to $409,200, indicating slight price gains despite flat sales and mixed supply signals.

June Wages and Consumer Spending Disappoint Again

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Wages Consumer spending Inflation
  1. Wages in Japan were lower than expected in June, leading to a decrease in real consumer spending. This could impact interest rates and the value of the yen.
  2. Increasing base pay is crucial for long-term financial stability for workers, compared to relying on overtime or bonuses.
  3. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions are influenced by data on wages and inflation, impacting interest rates and the value of the yen.

How making memes made me a millionaire in 2 months [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 159 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
💰 Finance Personal Finance Investing Wealth Management Cryptocurrency Financial Strategies
  1. To be worth a million dollars, you can have a million dollars in cash, but it's rare and not always the smartest move.
  2. People can become 'millionaires' through equity, like stock compensation, where the value can fluctuate.
  3. Understanding tricks like using projections, earnings multiples, and fuzzy assets can help spot inflated valuations in the finance world.

The Case for Fiat

The Dollar Endgame • 159 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
💰 Finance Monetary Systems Economic Theory Financial Literacy Cryptocurrency Wealth Inequality
  1. The fiat system's survival doesn't depend on morality, as history shows evil systems have persisted. People may feel powerless against organized evil but may also become complicit in it.
  2. The fiat system, flawed as it is, has worked to lift many out of poverty and fuel innovation. Everyday citizens often lack the financial and political knowledge to make informed decisions about the system.
  3. Bitcoin's adoption faces hurdles as the majority may not share the beliefs of its proponents. Transitioning to a new system might lead to short-term pain and disparities, impacting various demographics differently.

Platform Economics- Why Meta made a Profit and Uber did not [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 159 implied HN points • 22 Jul 23
💰 Finance Platforms Economics Profitability Tech industry Monopoly
  1. Platform economics often prioritize scale over short-term profitability, relying on network effects to eventually generate revenue.
  2. Successful platforms like Facebook and YouTube maintained a competitive edge through extensive user profiles and built-in loyalty, unlike Uber.
  3. Uber's failure was attributed to factors like the ease of replicating its service, lack of customer loyalty, and the unrealistic expectations for profitability in the on-demand service industry.