The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Top Links 538 The rise of options. "Little pipes" and "little fires". THE banana skirt & the Apple-Nike connection.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Commodities Stock Options
  1. The rise of options trading is becoming a big trend in the market. It's important to understand how this affects investments.
  2. The phrase 'little pipes and little fires' suggests small things can have big impacts. It's a reminder that minor issues can escalate quickly.
  3. There’s an interesting connection between brands like Apple and Nike, showing how different industries can influence each other.

Top Links 547 America's huge trade deficit. Hedge funds bet against green. Bout & the Houthis & the grate (sic) cheese robbery.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Trade Investments Economy Hedge Funds Deficits
  1. America's trade deficit widened significantly in September, which means the country is buying way more from other countries than it's selling.
  2. Hedge funds are making big bets against green investments, which suggests they believe these investments won't perform well in the future.
  3. There was a strange robbery involving 'grate cheese' and the Houthis, showing how unusual events can grab attention in the news.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Mortgages Home Prices Inventory Home Sales Market Trends
  1. Active listings have risen sharply year-over-year, giving buyers more options as inventory nears pre‑pandemic levels even though it remains below 2017–19 norms.
  2. Existing‑home sales are depressed and tracking last year’s lows, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though most owners have enough equity and low rates to prevent a big wave of distressed sales.
  3. New homebuilders are struggling with a growing number of completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete, and some key data like housing starts and new home sales are currently unavailable.

Renesas's Wolfspeed Bath and Micron Earnings

Mule’s Musings • 109 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Earnings Reports Technology Stocks Corporate Finance
  1. Renesas, Wolfspeed, and Micron are key players in the tech industry. Their earnings can impact the market significantly.
  2. Understanding the financial performance of these companies helps investors make better decisions. Good earnings reports often signal growth and stability.
  3. Keeping an eye on these companies is important for anyone interested in the technology market. Trends in their earnings can indicate future opportunities.
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Data Update 5 for 2023: Pathways to Profitability

Musings on Markets • 439 implied HN points • 16 Feb 23
💰 Finance Profitability Investments Market Trends Economic Analysis Capital Structure
  1. A company's main goal is to make money, not just grow. Even businesses that do good need to be profitable to survive.
  2. Profit margins differ across industries and countries. Some sectors, like tech or energy, often show higher profits, while retail and airlines typically struggle.
  3. It's important for companies to earn more than their costs of capital. Many businesses are failing to meet this goal, meaning they need to rethink their financial strategies.

Layered Money

The Dollar Endgame • 159 implied HN points • 22 Nov 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Debt
  1. Understanding how the financial system operates in layers is crucial for designing an efficient monetary system.
  2. The modern financial system operates with different layers, each offering scaling solutions and varying levels of security, transparency, and operability.
  3. The layers of the financial system include the base layer with systems like FedWire, a layer for deposits, and a top layer for debt, all serving different needs of users in the economy.

Quant Letter: January 2026, Week-3

The Parlour • 8 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
💰 Finance Quantitative finance Machine Learning NLP Data Engineering Modeling AI Research
  1. Fine-tuning LLaMA-3-8B with instruction tuning and LoRA noticeably improves financial named-entity recognition, helping convert messy reports into structured data.
  2. New work on adaptive dataflow for financial time-series points to better ways to process streaming market data and boost model efficiency or accuracy.
  3. This newsletter curates recent finance ML papers and is available by subscription, with some free previews for readers who want quick research updates.

Decoding Liquidation Preference, Particiaption & Non-Participation Rights? | YC Startup Index Gives 176% Return | VC Funding Report | Weekend Readings & More

Venture Curator • 199 implied HN points • 07 Jul 23
💰 Finance Startup Financing Venture Capital Investment Trends Remote Jobs
  1. Understanding terms like 1x participation and non-participation is crucial for founders and investors in startup financing to protect their investments.
  2. Having a 1x non-participation liquidation preference can be advantageous for founders during company liquidation to ensure returns.
  3. YC Startup Index shows a remarkable 176% average annual return, surpassing other asset classes and venture capital funds.

Curve’s Possible DeFi Contagion

Daily Digest • 196 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance DeFi Protocols
  1. Yesterday, Curve was attacked with 8% of CRV tokens compromised
  2. CRV founder took a $100 million debt backed by 47% of circulating CRV supply, risking liquidation with falling CRV prices
  3. DeFi protocols accepting CRV as collateral are at risk of contagion from the current crisis

The Fed & the Central Banking Order of Operations

Without Warning • 196 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
💰 Finance Central Banking Monetary Policy Inflation Communication
  1. Central banks follow a specific order of operations during financial crises, involving rate cuts, quantitative easing, and emergency liquidity facilities.
  2. Dallas Fed President raised the idea of separating asset runoff from rate adjustments, suggesting that the balance sheet and rate policy can be independent during market instability.
  3. Fed officials are discussing the possibility of actively growing the balance sheet during monetary tightening, signaling a potential shift from the traditional central banking order of operations.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Market Analysis Economic Trends Risk Assessment
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.

Letter #78: Julian Robertson (2000)

A Letter a Day • 196 implied HN points • 02 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Fund management Financial history
  1. year run of Tiger Management saw impressive returns but faced struggles from 1998-2000, leading to the decision to shut down the fund
  2. Julian Robertson emphasized the importance of value investing over speculative, short-term gains driven by irrational markets
  3. Regardless of setbacks, Robertson believes in the long-term potential of value investing and the cyclicality of market trends

Top Links 594 American consumers flipflop. Questioning the savings glut & the strain of too much scientific publishing.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economy Consumer behavior Savings Publishing Scientific research
  1. American consumers are uncertain about their spending and saving habits right now. It shows there's a lot of confusion about the economy.
  2. There's a discussion about whether there's too much focus on saving money in the economy. Some believe this could be a problem.
  3. The volume of scientific publishing is increasing, and this might be causing stress for researchers. It's important to find a balance in how much gets published.

Stock Talk

Jon’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stocks Market Trends Investment E-commerce Cryptocurrency
  1. Stocks are on the rise, and analysts are adjusting their forecasts upward for the S&P 500. Staying invested long-term is advised, as it seems there’s still room for growth.
  2. If the S&P 500 performs well in January and February, historical data shows it usually continues to do well for the rest of the year. This makes the start of 2024 look promising.
  3. Amazon’s clothing sales are expected to grow significantly, potentially reaching $100 billion. This shows Amazon is successfully expanding in the fashion market, which usually has higher profit margins.

Wall Street Investors Enter Single Family Rentals

Arpitrage • 339 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Market Trends Economics Regulations
  1. Large institutional investors are entering the single-family rental market, which affects housing affordability. They often buy homes in high-demand areas, leading to concerns about rising house prices.
  2. These big investors have cost advantages over small landlords. They can charge lower rents due to better management and bargaining power, which can help some renters find affordable housing.
  3. The overall impact of these investors on home prices is mixed. While they might push prices up in certain markets, their presence can also increase rental availability, benefiting some renters despite potential price hikes.

Central Bankers Disagree About Gold

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Cryptocurrency Central Banking Economic Theory
  1. Gold prices have significantly risen, which some believe signals trouble for the US dollar and the overall financial system. This raises questions about the stability of fiat currencies.
  2. Central bankers have differing views on gold's relevance; while one downplays gold's importance, another sees its rising value as a sign of eroding trust in the dollar. This shows a divide in how they understand economic stability.
  3. Gold remains a crucial asset for central banks, sometimes even more so than government securities, indicating that it is still valued as a safe haven in uncertain times.

Housing Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 117 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Interest Rates Inventory Economic Impact Home Prices
  1. The housing market has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, representing 15-18% of GDP.
  2. High interest rates and low inventory in 2023 caused fewer transactions and high home prices.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include falling interest rates leading to more supply, potential modest price declines, and buyers becoming more rational.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Investments Market Analysis
  1. Real house prices, after adjusting for inflation, are currently about 3% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that while house prices have gone up nominally, they aren't as high when you consider inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is significantly lower than its peak in 2022, indicating that renting may be more affordable compared to buying in some areas right now.
  3. National house prices are still higher than they were during the housing bubble, but the recent downward trend suggests it may take time for prices to recover fully or hit new highs.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stocks Cryptocurrency
  1. The stock market has recently seen a decline, with all major indices dropping for three weeks in a row. Even strong earnings from companies like Nvidia couldn't change the downward trend.
  2. Many popular tech stocks are significantly below their record highs, indicating market struggles. Investors are feeling cautious as market breadth has hit a two-year low.
  3. Despite the pullback, November is usually a strong month for stocks. Observing key stock levels and certain companies can provide insight into the market's next moves.

Top Links 554 Defending the Fed. Betting on investment. China in Peru & Pakistan's counterinsurgency campaign.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Economics Policy International Analysis
  1. The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in managing the economy, and there are discussions about its actions and decisions. Understanding how the Fed works can help people make sense of economic changes.
  2. Investing is a key topic, indicating that people are looking for ways to grow their money even in uncertain times. Betting on good investments can lead to financial gain in the future.
  3. China's involvement in countries like Peru shows its global influence. Additionally, Pakistan's counterinsurgency efforts highlight ongoing challenges in maintaining security and stability.

Investing Update: Where Are The IPOs?

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 13 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets Stocks IPOs Investing Macro ETFs Portfolio
  1. The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs and is tracking toward a 6,900 year-end target.
  2. The rally is broadening beyond AI and the Mag 7 — equal-weight S&P and sectors like small-caps, industrials, and financials are making new highs.
  3. Markets got volatile as the Nasdaq underperformed after tech earnings and rising yields, and IPO activity remains surprisingly quiet.

Top Links 541 US profits have a long way to fall. Africa's new gold rush. Laos' fx reserves running low & the crisis in the Sahel.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Corporate Profits Economic Trends Global Markets Resource Management Financial Crises
  1. US corporate profits are expected to decline significantly in the future. This could impact the economy and stock markets.
  2. Africa is experiencing a new wave of interest in gold mining. This could bring economic growth to the region.
  3. Laos is facing a shortage of foreign exchange reserves, which may lead to a financial crisis. Additionally, the Sahel region is experiencing ongoing challenges and instability.

A Must Watch

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Fraud Detection Short selling Documentary
  1. Watch _The China Hustle_ documentary for insights into financial fraud, especially in the context of U.S.-listed companies. It's important for anyone involved in markets to understand these issues.
  2. The documentary focuses on fraud in Chinese companies, but it highlights similar problems in the U.S. market too. Many companies are not accurately reporting their finances.
  3. Real research into these issues is rare, especially among investment banks that want to maintain relationships with companies they cover. Be cautious and do your own due diligence.