The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

How to calculate P/E ratio

Shivansh • 19 implied HN points • 26 Apr 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. P/E ratio compares a company's stock price with its earnings per share, providing insight into investor perception and market sentiment.
  2. Calculating P/E ratio involves dividing the current stock price by the company's earnings per share (EPS).
  3. Different types of P/E ratios like trailing and forward help in assessing past performance and future earnings, aiding investors in comparing valuations and identifying trends across industries.

How Apple became Warren Buffett's best investment.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 06 May 23
💼 Business Market Analysis
  1. Warren Buffett sees Apple as the best business in his investment portfolio, worth over $150 billion. His comfort with Apple represents a big change since he used to avoid tech stocks.
  2. Buffett understands consumer loyalty to Apple products, emphasizing how people might give up a car before their iPhone. This strong demand creates a protective advantage for Apple.
  3. Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, is praised by Buffett for his leadership and shareholder respect. Apple's strong financials, like stock buybacks and dividends, benefit Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway.

CATL

Tech Buzz China Insider • 79 implied HN points • 13 May 23
🕹 Technology Market Analysis
  1. CATL's Qilin batteries are positioned for high-end vehicles and currently target about 15% of the domestic EV market due to their high cost and superior range.
  2. CATL's Qilin battery faces competition from Tesla's 4680 battery, which is still working through production issues affecting its yield rate.
  3. By 2025, the battery industry landscape is expected to greatly favor incumbent manufacturers with CATL's capacity projected to exceed 700 GWh, and laminated products anticipated to increase to over 60% of the market.

Erdmann Housing Tracker 2024 in Review (July to December)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Market Analysis
  1. Rising rents are the main cause behind increasing home price-to-rent ratios. This happens when supply is restricted, leading to higher land rents that inflate home values.
  2. Cities with high costs usually face housing shortages because of strict building regulations. They aren't necessarily more desirable but are limited in housing availability.
  3. The mortgage market has changed, favoring higher credit score borrowers, which has reduced access for many potential homeowners. This has led to inflated home prices and keeps housing out of reach for lower-income families.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Innovation Job Market Papers 2024 (1/3)

New Things Under the Sun • 112 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💼 Business Market Analysis
  1. Many new PhD candidates are presenting innovative research papers related to job markets in 2024. It's a great opportunity to see fresh ideas and studies in innovation.
  2. These papers explore various aspects of innovation, including mentorship, financial frictions, and the impact of technology on productivity. Each study offers insights into how these elements shape economic growth.
  3. There are events and reviews for PhD students interested in innovation, which can help them network and present their work. Engaging in these opportunities can boost their academic and professional careers.

Investing Update: A Look At My Portfolio

Spilled Coffee • 84 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. The stock market has been having a tough time lately, especially on Fridays, which have seen significant drops. It's important to pay attention to these patterns when investing.
  2. The Magnificent 7 stocks aren’t performing as well this year compared to last year, suggesting a shift in market dynamics. Other sectors might be starting to pick up the pace instead.
  3. The current bull market is still young, but it's showing strong returns. Statistically, bull markets that reach their third year tend to continue for quite a while, which could mean more growth ahead.

Review 2023 - Mining Pools

nicosmid • 39 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Market Analysis
  1. The top two Bitcoin mining pools, Foundry and Antpool, increased their dominance in 2023.
  2. Hashrate aggregators are fighting to capture market share, relying on primary pools for block creation and managing rewards, posing both opportunities and risks to network decentralization.
  3. Several Bitcoin mining pools came and went in 2023, highlighting challenges and innovations in the industry.

Rent trends and multi-family construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.

Alternative Investment Guide #1 - Art

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 99 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. Art investing can be a lucrative opportunity, with some estimates showing returns of around 9% to 14%.
  2. The art market is large and valued at over $1.5 trillion, but it can be tricky for newcomers due to its complexity and the influence of wealthy insiders.
  3. There are more ways than ever to start investing in art, including art funds and fractional ownership, making it accessible for beginners.

What I read in December 2023

Asian Century Stocks • 39 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. The post discusses strong competitive advantages of companies like Nintendo, Samsung C&T, Topcon, Japan Lifeline, Tai Cheung, and Medley.
  2. The information in the publication is not personalized financial advice and opinions can change.
  3. Readers are advised to consult financial advisors and do their own research before making investment decisions.

Crypto Rises, Agents Drop, Factories Hum

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
🔮 Crypto Market Analysis
  1. Recent crypto regulations are moving forward in Congress, leading to rising values for digital assets. This makes it a good time for investors to take advantage of managed ETFs and explore crypto.
  2. There's a strong comeback for hardware startups, especially those in defense technology. Companies are focusing on building and manufacturing essential tech closer to home in response to global supply chain concerns.
  3. OpenAI has released a new tool called ChatGPT Agent that can handle complex tasks on your computer. This advancement suggests that AI is quickly evolving and could significantly impact white-collar jobs.

Semiconductor Cycle: Industrial and EVs

Mule’s Musings • 288 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💼 Business Market Analysis
  1. Industrial semiconductor demand is weakening, while smartphones and PCs are at a good point in the cycle.
  2. Chinese industrial production is down, solar is weakening, and EV inventories are rising.
  3. Semiconductors in different end markets have varying cyclicality, with automotive and industrial segments remaining more stable.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 09 Jul 25
💼 Business Market Analysis
  1. The housing market is seeing more homes available for sale, with active listings up almost 29% compared to last year. This means buyers have more choices right now.
  2. Sales of homes are flat, and prices are under pressure because of the increased inventory. The new homebuilders are also reducing prices to compete.
  3. Even though there are more homes for sale, sales are still low, and the market is gradually moving back to pre-pandemic inventory levels.

California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
💼 Business Market Analysis
  1. California home sales in October reached their highest level since February, showing a slight increase from both the previous month and last year. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. The median price per square foot for homes in California has decreased by 2.5% compared to last year. This indicates a slight downturn in housing prices, even as sales have picked up.
  3. While new listings have increased by 7% year-over-year, overall inventory remains higher than last year, which suggests that more homes are available for buyers, but market trends may slow down as we enter the holiday season.

How to realistically estimate market size and revenue in defense start ups

Nathan’s Substack • 59 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
💼 Business Market Analysis
  1. Estimating market size and revenue in defense startups is challenging due to the complexities of the market, long customer life cycles, and misleading reports from analysts.
  2. The traditional top-down approach for market sizing in defense is flawed, so a bottom-up method, focusing on quantifying available customers and understanding unit costs, can be more effective.
  3. Understanding different contract types in defense, such as SBIRs, OTAs, IDIQs, and Programs of Record, is crucial for startups to differentiate between product revenue and government-funded R&D, and to aim for sustainable growth.

38 stock ideas for 2024.

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 30 Dec 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. Investing in sectors like industrials, materials, and financials is recommended for good returns. Companies in these areas often generate high cash flow and have strong dividends.
  2. Some experts believe that consumer staples and financial stocks will do better in 2024 as they can benefit from lower interest rates and inflation-related price increases.
  3. It's a good idea to consider mid-sized companies and precious metals for investment, as they may have better valuations and growth potential amid an uncertain economic environment.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. In October, home sales were down slightly by 0.3% compared to last year, even though they had increased by 8% the previous month. This shows that the housing market is facing some slowdowns.
  2. New home listings rose by 5.2% compared to last year, but they are still lower than levels seen in 2019. This suggests there's a cautious approach among sellers in the market.
  3. Active inventory of homes available for sale increased by 17.3% year over year, indicating more options for buyers. However, the growth is slightly lower than the previous month's increase.

Understanding Cryptocurrency's Ponzi-nomics [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 99 implied HN points • 03 Dec 22
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. Some cryptocurrency firms were using tokens as collateral for loans, potentially allowing them to have infinite money, but this practice made the system very inter-connected and vulnerable to collapse.
  2. Using tokens as collateral is similar to companies using shares as collateral; if the value of the token or coin drops, the collateral becomes worthless, leading to the collapse of the ecosystem.
  3. The issue arises when multiple firms in the industry follow the same practice, creating a facade of liquidity, but in reality, the entire system is built on a risky foundation, vulnerable to collapses.

Payroll is Big Business

Equal Ventures • 59 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
💼 Business Market Analysis
  1. Verticalized payroll offerings can provide industry-specific features and better service than horizontal players, creating additional monetizable opportunities.
  2. Industries with complex compensation structures, like real estate and insurance, are potential fits for vertical payroll models due to the unique payment systems.
  3. Traits that make a market ripe for a vertical payroll business vary, but complexity in payment structures and workforce dynamics are often attractive qualities.

The Lund Loop Daily Update - 02/23/23

The Lund Loop • 58 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. DXY and the market have an inverse correlation - when one goes up, the other goes down.
  2. Watching the DXY test the 200EMA could indicate potential market movement.
  3. The market snapshot shows Information Technology as the winner and Consumer Discretionary as the loser.

Binance vs. SEC

Confronting the Future • 58 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. The SEC alleges that Binance has operated in the US as an exchange, broker dealer, and has misrepresented their activities.
  2. The SEC's broad stance on cryptocurrencies could lead to a lack of clarity for businesses operating in the US.
  3. The SEC's extreme temporary relief requests against Binance reflect a power struggle rather than genuine consumer protection.

Open House (3288-JP): Part 1

Guasty Winds Investment Ideas • 58 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. Open House (3288-JP) is a successful niche homebuilder in Japan with a strong track record of growth and profitability.
  2. The company has maintained high returns on equity, shareholder-friendly practices, and a solid balance sheet.
  3. Despite being relatively unknown in the investment community, Open House has shown impressive sales, profit, and dividend growth since its IPO in 2013.

The Lund Loop Daily Update - 03/22/23

The Lund Loop • 58 implied HN points • 22 Mar 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. After the Federal Reserve announcement, there was a negative reversal in the market and individual stocks.
  2. The S&P 500 was rejected at the Anchored VWAP from the February 2nd high.
  3. All 11 sectors were down, with Real Estate being the biggest loser at -3.64% and Information Technology down 0.92%.

Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to a lack of supply rather than too much demand. Cities are struggling to provide enough homes for their growing populations.
  2. Homeownership continues to decline because of demographic shifts and a severe housing shortage. Many people are forced to share living spaces instead of owning their own homes.
  3. There is a belief that adding more housing will lead to lower prices, but it often results in the opposite effect. More housing can create a sense of instability in the market, making things feel worse for current residents.

Investing Update: A Rotation Is Underway

Spilled Coffee • 68 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. All major stock indexes ended the week down, showing a shift in market sentiment. This can indicate a possible change in the current bull market.
  2. Despite the recent downturn, some key stocks like Nvidia are bouncing back, and the overall market remains strong as the S&P 500 is near its all-time high.
  3. Historically, February is known for being a tough month for stock performance, especially after Valentine’s Day, which could be a concern for investors.

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Mule’s Musings • 295 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. Nvidia exceeded expectations with its Q2 earnings, surpassing revenue and EPS estimates.
  2. There is uncertainty about the sustainability of Nvidia's growth due to potential overordering and demand shifts.
  3. Nvidia's competitive advantage lies in its architecture, installed base, reach, and rapid engineering, positioning them as a dominant force in the tech ecosystem.

Walk Your Talk

do clouds feel vertigo? • 1 HN point • 31 Aug 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. Navigating emotions in finance is tough. Just like a story, the market has ups and downs, often driven by fear and greed.
  2. Understanding market patterns can help you make better choices. Key events, like earnings reports, can change how stocks perform quickly.
  3. It's smart to think about who benefits from market movements. Often, the loudest voices can mislead you, so keep a clear perspective.

Investing Update: 5 Stocks For The 2nd Half

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jul 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both risen over 6% this year, showing a strong market trend. This means that many investors are feeling positive about their stocks.
  2. Recent data indicates a bullish outlook, with higher levels of risk-on sentiment. This suggests that investors are more willing to take risks in the stock market right now.
  3. Historically, when the S&P 500 rises 5-10% by mid-year, the second half of the year tends to be strong. This gives investors a reason to feel confident going forward.

How much capital can startups profitably eat?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💼 Business Market Analysis
  1. Startups seem to have a limit on how much money they can handle, known as being 'founder constrained'. This means that there are not enough strong ideas or founders to support the cash available.
  2. There has been a drop in the success rate of startups getting further funding after their initial rounds. This is particularly true for those that started during the funding boom in 2021.
  3. Venture capital returns from funds initiated in 2021 are underperforming, likely due to an excess of companies funded without sufficient quality ideas or founders backing them.