The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

The Big Idea vs. Incremental Improvements - Problem #2

Fish Food for Thought • 8 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💼 Business Innovation Strategy Entrepreneurship Market Analysis Leadership
  1. Big ideas can be exciting and lead to major changes, but they come with big risks. Not every bold vision will succeed, especially if it doesn't meet practical needs.
  2. Small, continuous improvements can often lead to more stable success. Companies that focus on gradual progress can adapt better to changing markets and customer needs.
  3. Finding a balance between big ideas and smaller steps is key. Companies can inspire breakthroughs while ensuring long-term growth by combining bold visions with incremental changes.

Review 2023 - Mining Pools

nicosmid • 39 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Bitcoin Mining Blockchain Technology Tech Trends Market Analysis
  1. The top two Bitcoin mining pools, Foundry and Antpool, increased their dominance in 2023.
  2. Hashrate aggregators are fighting to capture market share, relying on primary pools for block creation and managing rewards, posing both opportunities and risks to network decentralization.
  3. Several Bitcoin mining pools came and went in 2023, highlighting challenges and innovations in the industry.
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The Housing Shortage Is Larger Than You Think: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 99 HN points • 19 Dec 23
💰 Finance Home Prices Supply and Demand Market Analysis
  1. Bank of America analysis suggests a deficit of 4 million homes in the US due to underbuilding over the past decade.
  2. Home prices spiked by 41% during the Covid boom with 60% attributed to the work-from-home trend.
  3. Vacancies are a crucial part of housing supply, with a potential need for a 300% increase in supply to match demand from 2020-2022.

MiSeq i100 Versus Vega Consumables Margins!

ASeq Newsletter • 7 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💼 Business Investments Technology Biotech Consumer Goods Market Analysis
  1. Investors are likely to prefer the MiSeq i100 due to higher profit margins compared to the PacBio Vega.
  2. Illumina is known for its strong consumables margins, which adds to its attractiveness for investors.
  3. Discussion forums like Discord can be helpful for staying updated and sharing insights about biotech and sequencing technology.

Alternative Investment Guide #1 - Art

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 99 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing Assets Market Analysis Risk management Valuation
  1. Art investing can be a lucrative opportunity, with some estimates showing returns of around 9% to 14%.
  2. The art market is large and valued at over $1.5 trillion, but it can be tricky for newcomers due to its complexity and the influence of wealthy insiders.
  3. There are more ways than ever to start investing in art, including art funds and fractional ownership, making it accessible for beginners.

Mortgage affordability and excess rents

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Affordability Home Prices Market Analysis
  1. Mortgage affordability is affected by prevailing mortgage rates, which can impact transaction volume and buyer costs.
  2. The measure of mortgage affordability must be used with caution as inflation and buyer behavior play significant roles in housing market dynamics.
  3. The rental value of structures versus inflated land value over time can affect the dynamics of home prices and construction, highlighting the complexity of the housing market.

Transaction Costs and the UCLA Brand of Price Theory

Economic Forces • 5 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Price theory Transaction Costs Market Analysis
  1. The UCLA brand of price theory focuses on transactions instead of just markets. This means they look closely at the details of how transactions happen and what impacts those processes.
  2. Transaction costs are key to understanding decision-making in economics. Knowing how transaction costs affect choices helps explain why some actions happen within firms and others happen between them.
  3. Property rights play a significant role in transaction costs. The restrictions and rules around property ownership can impact decisions and the nature of transactions.

Investing Update: Don't Forget This Chart

Spilled Coffee • 12 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Indicators Monetary Policy Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, with 45 new all-time highs and the best start since 2000. This means the market is doing really well right now.
  2. Despite the market's successes, only 54% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-day moving average. This is a bit low and worth keeping an eye on.
  3. With recent jobless claims rising more than expected, it could influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates. Many experts still believe there will be a rate cut soon.

How to realistically estimate market size and revenue in defense start ups

Nathan’s Substack • 59 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
💼 Business Market Analysis Budgeting
  1. Estimating market size and revenue in defense startups is challenging due to the complexities of the market, long customer life cycles, and misleading reports from analysts.
  2. The traditional top-down approach for market sizing in defense is flawed, so a bottom-up method, focusing on quantifying available customers and understanding unit costs, can be more effective.
  3. Understanding different contract types in defense, such as SBIRs, OTAs, IDIQs, and Programs of Record, is crucial for startups to differentiate between product revenue and government-funded R&D, and to aim for sustainable growth.

Robotics reading: the good, the bad and the everything in between.

Robots & Startups • 79 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Robotics AI Market Analysis
  1. The post discusses the good and bad aspects of artificial companions, offering deep exploration.
  2. A critical article about the humanoid robotic market is mentioned, focusing on numbers and correlations but lacking in other aspects.
  3. The readers are invited to subscribe to Robots & Startups for a 7-day free trial to access full post archives.

38 stock ideas for 2024.

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 30 Dec 23
💰 Finance Investments Stock Market Market Analysis Economic outlook Portfolio Management
  1. Investing in sectors like industrials, materials, and financials is recommended for good returns. Companies in these areas often generate high cash flow and have strong dividends.
  2. Some experts believe that consumer staples and financial stocks will do better in 2024 as they can benefit from lower interest rates and inflation-related price increases.
  3. It's a good idea to consider mid-sized companies and precious metals for investment, as they may have better valuations and growth potential amid an uncertain economic environment.

O Bubble, Where Art Thou?

The Last Bear Standing • 55 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Cryptocurrency Market Analysis Interest Rates
  1. The equity market has shown signs of over-indulgence recently, with increasing enthusiasm and unbridled momentum.
  2. Market worry has shifted from lack of enthusiasm to lack of disbelief, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current bull run.
  3. The macroeconomic resilience is attributed to a balance between big fiscal policies, monetary tightening, and strong balance sheets post-pandemic.

Understanding Cryptocurrency's Ponzi-nomics [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 99 implied HN points • 03 Dec 22
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Investing Market Analysis Financial risk
  1. Some cryptocurrency firms were using tokens as collateral for loans, potentially allowing them to have infinite money, but this practice made the system very inter-connected and vulnerable to collapse.
  2. Using tokens as collateral is similar to companies using shares as collateral; if the value of the token or coin drops, the collateral becomes worthless, leading to the collapse of the ecosystem.
  3. The issue arises when multiple firms in the industry follow the same practice, creating a facade of liquidity, but in reality, the entire system is built on a risky foundation, vulnerable to collapses.

Payroll is Big Business

Equal Ventures • 59 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
💼 Business Payroll Entrepreneurship Market Analysis Financial Services
  1. Verticalized payroll offerings can provide industry-specific features and better service than horizontal players, creating additional monetizable opportunities.
  2. Industries with complex compensation structures, like real estate and insurance, are potential fits for vertical payroll models due to the unique payment systems.
  3. Traits that make a market ripe for a vertical payroll business vary, but complexity in payment structures and workforce dynamics are often attractive qualities.

Binance vs. SEC

Confronting the Future • 58 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
💰 Finance Regulation Cryptocurrency Investing Enforcement Market Analysis
  1. The SEC alleges that Binance has operated in the US as an exchange, broker dealer, and has misrepresented their activities.
  2. The SEC's broad stance on cryptocurrencies could lead to a lack of clarity for businesses operating in the US.
  3. The SEC's extreme temporary relief requests against Binance reflect a power struggle rather than genuine consumer protection.

Open House (3288-JP): Part 1

Guasty Winds Investment Ideas • 58 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis
  1. Open House (3288-JP) is a successful niche homebuilder in Japan with a strong track record of growth and profitability.
  2. The company has maintained high returns on equity, shareholder-friendly practices, and a solid balance sheet.
  3. Despite being relatively unknown in the investment community, Open House has shown impressive sales, profit, and dividend growth since its IPO in 2013.

European equities won’t provide safety if US bubble bursts

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Equities Economic Trends Risk management
  1. If the US stock market crashes, it can impact European markets too. Investors shouldn't expect safety by moving their money to Europe.
  2. Currently, US stocks are very expensive, which raises concerns about a potential market correction.
  3. A downturn in the US could be more harmful to Europe than past market crashes, like the tech bubble in 2000.

The Death of QT

The Last Bear Standing • 179 implied HN points • 17 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Banking Sector Market Analysis Financial Stability Central Banking
  1. The Federal Reserve struggled with liquidity tightening, leading to emergency measures and a new financial crisis.
  2. Understanding the monetary plumbing system is crucial to comprehending the impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on the banking sector.
  3. Quantitative Tightening (QT) may not continue for long, as challenges in the banking sector could be exacerbated without further accommodations from the Federal Reserve.

Walk Your Talk

do clouds feel vertigo? • 1 HN point • 31 Aug 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Strategies Behavioral Finance Risk management
  1. Navigating emotions in finance is tough. Just like a story, the market has ups and downs, often driven by fear and greed.
  2. Understanding market patterns can help you make better choices. Key events, like earnings reports, can change how stocks perform quickly.
  3. It's smart to think about who benefits from market movements. Often, the loudest voices can mislead you, so keep a clear perspective.

Want to know if a fund manager is skilled? Watch the tough days in the market

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Fund management Market Analysis Financial trends
  1. Tofindgoodfndmnارجن:ّعطقتاكنن!ليكنالفخاري:تيشغبدالحدعاليرجنااللهندميواسقولالسر"لتيشيرناجنك:اذنبهجتراجعمتنينمهاوبتراخيم
  2. Tofindgoodfndmnارجن:َّتداوي:صدلجيلةقويينتكنوفقطمنذلاؤوا:حتىعامرفناجيالهندزيلاكانديالنمو:تحتشلتزيدانيجةعليهذهذاقلناعىمايقدروفي
  3. مؤخذيددوروقتتيليلوانرهمجمعمؤهلملتكون:دوتمستقبلانصيحاولم:يختلفلشبهنموفتفضل

Pendle Finance: Decentralized Yield Trading (Part 2)

DeFi Education • 299 implied HN points • 26 Jan 22
🔮 Crypto Decentralized Finance Investors Security risks Market Analysis
  1. Pendle Finance focuses on decentralized yield trading, allowing investors to trade and maximize their yield. It's a new way for people to earn money on their crypto assets.
  2. There are various investors and top holders involved with Pendle, indicating interest and confidence in the platform. Knowing who the investors are can help understand the project's potential.
  3. The post mentions potential risks and security concerns associated with Pendle Finance. It's important to be aware of these factors when considering investment in any decentralized finance project.

US debt is risky: A rant about evidence-based investing

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Debt Economics Bonds Market Analysis
  1. US Treasuries aren't actually risk-free. When the government borrows more without a plan to pay it back, the risk of default increases, which can lower bond prices.
  2. Many finance experts think the US is overspending, yet they still believe that investors will keep buying US debt without questioning it. This is a strange contradiction.
  3. It's important to ask for real proof when investing advice is given. Effective investing should be backed up with solid data, not just opinions or conventional wisdom.

Why investors love Apple's stock.

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Dividends Stock Buybacks Corporate Finance Market Analysis
  1. Apple makes a lot of money from selling devices like iPhones and services, giving them a huge cash flow.
  2. Investors love that Apple shares its profits through dividends and stock buybacks, which puts money back in their pockets.
  3. Even with big expenses, Apple still has plenty of cash left over, and experts believe this will keep growing in the future.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Closed sales in February were influenced by past mortgage rates, showing a decrease from rates in the previous months.
  2. Active inventory in early reporting housing markets increased significantly in February, raising concerns about potential peaks.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still at low levels compared to historical data.