The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Four Blog Posts I Didn't Publish This Year

Venture Reflections • 8 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investment Trends Market Analysis Business strategy
  1. Not every idea needs to be shared. Keeping a drafts folder helps organize thoughts while deciding what’s worth publishing.
  2. Some topics are better discussed in personal conversations, as they can be sensitive or complex. It's okay to hold back rather than add to negativity.
  3. Investor updates are common now, but many are lacking in quality. Providing meaningful information is key to keeping investors informed.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. House prices, when adjusted for inflation, are currently about 1.5% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that even though prices seem high, they aren't as high as they were last year when considering the money's value.
  2. Real estate prices have been increasing steadily over time, and currently, they are 11% above the prices during the housing bubble of 2006. People should keep an eye on these real prices to better understand the market.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is still down around 8% from its highest point in 2022. This suggests that renting is somewhat more affordable compared to buying, which is an important factor for homebuyers to consider.

The Rise and Fall of FeFi (Fake DeFi)

DeFi Education • 579 implied HN points • 10 Jul 22
🔮 Crypto Blockchain DeFi Investing Market Analysis Regulation Risks
  1. FeFi, or Fake DeFi, refers to centralized companies pretending to be part of the decentralized finance space. These companies often mismanage assets and can harm the reputation of real decentralized finance.
  2. True DeFi should be fully decentralized, with no central control or custody of funds. It involves transparent and automated processes to protect users' assets and ensure fair enforcement of agreements.
  3. Investors need to be cautious and understand the risks of centralization. A smart contract from a trusted DeFi protocol can offer better safety compared to centralized options, which can leave users vulnerable.

Shen Jianguang on Five Major Misunderstandings of China’s Fiscal Stimulus Package

Pekingnology • 52 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Fiscal policy Debt Management Market Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. The fiscal stimulus package in China is larger than it seems. It includes various measures that could lead to significant economic support, potentially amounting to 20% of the GDP.
  2. Debt replacement efforts will not only improve local government finances but also allow for more government spending. This shift can help stimulate the economy by boosting aggregate demand.
  3. The package aims to help local governments, which can indirectly benefit businesses and households too. Increased spending can stimulate consumption and support recovery in multiple sectors.

MarketWire | Let me be clear: Monopoly Go is "successful"

The GameMakers Letter • 78 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Gaming Podcasts Mobile Market Analysis Industry Trends
  1. The discussion revolves around the success and profitability of Monopoly Go in the games industry.
  2. There is an emphasis on understanding the deeper nuances of game industry topics, such as defining profitability.
  3. Despite any controversies or disagreements, the main focus is on promoting open discussion and learning in the industry.
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New York City Hits the AirBNB Kill Switch

The Sunday Morning Post • 137 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
💼 Business Real Estate Regulations Market Analysis Financial impact
  1. New York City enforced strict restrictions on AirBNB and short-term rentals due to rising rents and limited housing supply.
  2. AirBNB, fighting against the regulations, faced lawsuits and ultimately a decline in listings in New York City.
  3. The recent enforcement of regulations in New York City marked a significant shift, with few approved permits for short-term rentals and a decrease in available AirBNBs.

The Reading Unlock

SatPost by Trung Phan • 254 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Investing Startups Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Entrepreneurs like Joe Coulombe, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk were inspired by reading single articles to start successful ventures.
  2. Reading diverse and random content can help build a unique insight stack when combined with other skills.
  3. Reading and continuous learning are crucial for developing insights that lead to successful ventures or investments.

Risk-Free Rate: What is the Price of Risk?

DeFi Education • 759 implied HN points • 04 Jan 22
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Market Analysis DeFi
  1. The risk-free rate is the return expected from a very safe investment, like U.S. Treasury bonds, and it helps investors judge the risk of other investments.
  2. As the risk-free rate rises, investors expect higher returns from riskier assets, meaning they want more compensation for taking on extra risk.
  3. In the world of DeFi, expected returns are usually much higher than traditional markets, but it’s important to understand the type of risks involved with different assets.

Coinbase Earnings + How To Avoid Troubled Companies

DeFi Education • 459 implied HN points • 25 Aug 22
🔮 Crypto Blockchain Investing Market Analysis Trading Strategies
  1. Coinbase is considered a leading company in the crypto space but still faces challenges. It's important to stay updated on how larger market trends affect even strong companies like Coinbase.
  2. Investors should be aware of signs that companies might be struggling, especially in unpredictable markets like crypto. This can help them make better decisions about where to put their money.
  3. Keeping a close watch on public crypto companies is essential for making informed investment choices. Monitoring these companies can reveal important insights about the overall health of the crypto market.

The Wrong Price

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 58 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Policy Economics Market Analysis
  1. Thematic investing is dominating the price action, with themes like generative AI boom and strong performance in the industrial sector attracting attention.
  2. Misdiagnosis of issues like prohibitive financing costs instead of asset quality is occurring, impacting treasury markets and regional bank stocks.
  3. Outlook on sustainable disinflation post CPI revisions and the association between regional banks and treasury market are key areas of focus.

Fear of Affordable Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Investing Economics Policy Market Analysis
  1. Developers and builders fear the loss in the value of their land investments if political obstructions to construction were lifted.
  2. Rents are unlikely to decline significantly in a whole metropolitan area due to new housing supply - housing demand is inelastic.
  3. Invest carefully in real estate market based on real trends but don't let fears about collapsing rents impact your views on housing justice or macroeconomic trends.

The Best Trades "Often Take A Little More Patience" To Develop

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 11 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Trading Market Analysis Financial advice Economic Trends
  1. Good trades often need more time and patience to develop, so it's smart to be patient in the market. Don't rush into decisions just because you feel pressured.
  2. The semiconductor sector is very strong right now, particularly companies like Nvidia, but it's important to be cautious because not all companies in this sector are doing well.
  3. Keep in mind that trading can be risky and it's always best to consult a financial advisor before making big decisions. It's okay to seek advice, but ultimately, you're responsible for your choices.

Hedge Funds - A Beginner's Guide

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Management Financial Markets Economic strategy Market Analysis
  1. Hedge funds are private investment funds managed by professionals who use different strategies to earn high returns for wealthy investors. They're not open to everyone, and there's less regulation.
  2. Hedge funds can use strategies like long and short selling to profit from market changes. Long selling means buying with the hope the price will go up, while short selling means selling borrowed assets to profit if prices drop.
  3. Many people dislike hedge fund managers due to a lack of transparency and the perception that they profit during tough times for others. Plus, it's tough for regular folks to invest in hedge funds as they often have high minimum requirements.

Iceberg Risk

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 117 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economic outlook Market Analysis Monetary Policy Investment strategy
  1. The economic outlook for 2023 differs from the consensus, with expectations of lower inflation and resilient growth.
  2. The treasury curve suggests an improved growth outlook without an increase in inflation expectations.
  3. The earnings recession seen in certain sectors is recovering, indicating a positive trend in earnings revisions.

Alfa Leak: What is Alpha?

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 27 Jan 22
🔮 Crypto Investing Market Analysis Asset management Risk Assessment DeFi
  1. Alpha is about making more money than a standard benchmark like the S&P 500. If you earn more than this benchmark, you have positive alpha.
  2. Beta measures how much an investment's price changes compared to a benchmark. A beta of 1 means it moves the same way as the benchmark, while higher or lower numbers show more volatility.
  3. In the crypto world, it's important to compare your gains against Bitcoin and understand how cryptocurrencies are becoming more similar to stocks over time. This can affect how much risk you take.

How Oversold Are Regional Bank Stocks?

Policy Tensor • 117 implied HN points • 04 May 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investing Banking Financial Crisis
  1. US blue-chip equities are a contested and efficient market, so price fluctuations usually revert to fundamentals.
  2. During market distress, patient investors with deep pockets may swoop in to buy assets at undervalued prices.
  3. Regional bank stocks are currently oversold, with prices far below economic fundamentals, presenting a potential opportunity for value investors.

Portfolio Update and Performance Review

Modern Value Investing • 117 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investing Portfolio Performance Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Portfolio is up 150% YTD, driven by investments in Meta Platforms and highly shorted stocks like Upstart and Opendoor.
  2. Author is getting more cautious due to rising inflation and interest rates, and has diversified investments.
  3. Author has built a 7% position in long-term treasuries as a partial hedge against market turmoil.

Volatility "Can Be Beneficial": Trading The Election Results

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Trading Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Volatility
  1. Volatility in the market can actually provide good trading opportunities. When things are uncertain, smart traders can find chances to profit.
  2. Listening to expert traders can be really helpful, especially those who are honest about their successes and failures. It helps build trust and understand the market better.
  3. Election results often change market dynamics, creating unique situations for investors. Keeping track of these changes can be essential for making informed decisions.

The Curious Case of NASDAQ:ARM's Low Float

Irrational Analysis • 79 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
💼 Business Finance Technology Market Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. Masayoshi Son's involvement in ARM (LTD) through SoftBank and Vision Funds sheds light on the company's strategic financial structures.
  2. The low free-float of NASDAQ:ARM due to the private transaction between SoftBank and Vision Fund 1 raises concerns about the IPO valuation and the overall stock price.
  3. ARM's position in the embedded/IoT market faces challenges due to RISC-V competition and customers' trend towards vertical integration, posing a threat to ARM's dominance in this market.

Former econ official says "trillions" to come, but be patient

Pekingnology • 56 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Market Analysis Government Regulation Investment strategy Macroeconomics
  1. A big economic plan is coming from China, but people need to be patient and not expect immediate results. Changes will happen over time.
  2. The government's strategy involves much more than just money; it includes a variety of policies to support different areas of the economy. This means they are looking at the bigger picture.
  3. Not every policy will show clear numbers right away. Some are about creating a better business environment and building for the future, which might take longer to see the effects.

Open Banking & Embedded Finance – Two sides of the same coin; Which technologies are shaping the future of fintech?; So what has the winning strategy for fintechs been over the last decade?;

Fintech Wrap Up • 58 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
💰 Finance Fintech Investments Technology Trends Market Analysis
  1. Open Banking and Embedded Finance are closely related concepts driving innovation in fintech through APIs.
  2. Key winning strategies for fintech success include starting with a unique product, scaling to improve cost efficiency, and expanding to offer multiple related products.
  3. Fintech investments globally saw a significant drop in 2023, but confidence started to return towards the end of the year.

Fund Frontier Expeditions otherwise just buy the "Magnificent Seven"

State of the Future • 24 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💼 Business Venture Capital Investment Trends Economics Startup Culture Market Analysis
  1. Venture capital has changed a lot due to higher interest rates. This makes it harder for startups to get money and has led to a drop in their valuations.
  2. Startups are taking longer to go public now. This means investors are waiting longer to see their returns, which can make venture capital less appealing.
  3. Big tech companies are becoming dominant in AI because they have the money to invest heavily. This creates high barriers for new startups, making it tough for them to compete.

What is a bond?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 219 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Bonds Investments Market Analysis Financial Education Risk Assessment
  1. A bond is like an IOU. When you buy one, you're lending money to a government or company for interest over time.
  2. There are different types of bonds, like government bonds for public projects and corporate bonds for business funding.
  3. Bonds have important terms like issuer, coupon rate, and maturity date, which help determine how they work and what investors earn.

FRAX: The Fractional Algorithmic Stablecoin (Pt. 2)

DeFi Education • 639 implied HN points • 14 Dec 21
🔮 Crypto Stablecoins DeFi Valuation Risks Market Analysis
  1. Frax is a unique type of stablecoin that combines both fractional and algorithmic features. This means it aims to maintain a stable value while also using smart contracts to help adjust its supply.
  2. In just six months, Frax's financial mechanisms, known as AMOs, made over $50 million in profits. That's a big boost in a short time, showing its potential for growth.
  3. There are benefits to using Frax, but there are also risks involved. It's important for users to understand both sides before getting involved.

The VC Corner #1

The VC Corner • 79 implied HN points • 24 Nov 23
💼 Business Venture Capital Investing Startups Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. European tech startups are experiencing a lot of downrounds, which are when companies' valuations decrease. This is the highest level of such downrounds since 2014.
  2. The VC Corner provides important news and analysis for both seasoned investors and those new to venture capital. It aims to help readers stay informed about the latest trends and updates.
  3. The newsletter offers a 7-day free trial, allowing people to explore its archives and get a sense of the content before subscribing. This is a great way to see if the information is useful for you.

#4: Premium vs Luxury Strategies in Travel

Bureau of Adventure • 99 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
🏝 Travel Luxury Travel Branding Consumer behavior Market Analysis
  1. Luxury is really about a unique experience rather than just being expensive. It’s more about how brands market themselves to create a special image.
  2. There are two main business strategies for travel brands: a premium strategy focuses on quality and value, while a luxury strategy emphasizes exclusivity and unique branding.
  3. For high-end travel brands, knowing whether you're premium or luxury is key. Each path has its own marketing rules and customer expectations.