The hottest Risk management Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

7 Investing Habits That Matter More Than Stock Picks in 2026

Behavioral Value Investor • 193 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Be honest about your strengths and weaknesses as an investor and focus on improving your process; pick one area to work on deeply rather than trying to change everything at once.
  2. Do less trading and spend most of your time reading and learning, but be prepared to act decisively and take large positions when a high-conviction opportunity within your circle of competence appears.
  3. Keep realistic return expectations and maintain high investment standards; ignore market noise, hot trends, and persuasive promises that erode your margin of safety.

Big Risks: Catastrophic Risk in Investing and Business

Musings on Markets • 1139 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Catastrophic risks can come from many sources like natural disasters, hacks, or changes in laws. They can seriously threaten a business's survival and impact its value.
  2. It's crucial for business owners to understand how these risks affect their financial situation. They can either be insurable or uninsurable, and knowing this helps in making better decisions.
  3. People often react emotionally to risks, sometimes ignoring them until it's too late. Understanding these reactions can help in making smarter investments and preparing for the worst.

The Great Software Repricing: A Framework

Enterprise AI Trends • 105 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Investors are re‑rating SaaS because revenue is becoming less predictable — usage‑based and AI‑agent pricing make earnings lumpier, so multiples can fall even if revenues rise.
  2. AI is changing the core value of traditional software: companies must shift from passive systems of record to active systems of action, and it’s unclear if those new models will be profitable or keep the same market size.
  3. The real bottleneck is hardware and demand uncertainty, not software supply, so worries about seat losses and customer need are driving a broad repricing of software valuations.
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Market Cap vs. Equal Weighted Index Funds - Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 239 implied HN points • 20 Jun 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Market-cap weighted index funds invest more in larger companies, which can mean more stability but also more risk if those big companies do poorly.
  2. Equal-weighted index funds treat all companies the same, offering more diversification and potential for growth, but they can be more volatile and expensive to manage.
  3. Choosing between these two types of funds depends on your comfort with risk, your investment goals, and how you think the market will perform in the future.

❄️🏢 Acheter un immeuble de rapport : tout ce qu’il faut savoir

Snowball • 1100 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Buying an income-building property requires thorough preparation and attention to details before making the purchase.
  2. Investing in buildings with multiple rented units can offer advantages like lower price per square meter, increased yield, and centralized management.
  3. When visiting potential properties, it's crucial to ask the right questions to sellers, observe key elements on-site, and gather essential documents for further evaluation.

AI Risk Evolution

Frankly Speaking • 254 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Focusing on 'AI for security' means we should use AI to improve security measures instead of limiting its use. Trying to ban tools like ChatGPT won't stop teams from finding ways to use them.
  2. Security needs to rethink its risk models because traditional methods aren't effective against AI. Just following compliance rules won't protect against new AI threats.
  3. Smaller security teams can still be powerful thanks to AI, which helps automate many tasks. Embracing AI can help teams be more effective, rather than just restricting its use.

My Christmas Security Wishlist

Frankly Speaking • 152 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Stop outdated controls like mandatory 90-day password changes and security questions and instead rely on password managers plus MFA.
  2. Move away from checkbox trainings and dozens of point tools; security teams should build engineering solutions, use automated guardrails, and consolidate tooling to actually reduce risk.
  3. Make security an enabling partner by aligning compliance to real risk, supporting safe AI adoption, delivering measurable ROI, and building trust through strong detection, response, and clear communication.

Ethena: Fundamentally Flawed?

DeFi Education • 819 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🔮 Crypto Risk management
  1. Ethena aims to provide attractive yields through a unique trading strategy that combines staking ETH and selling futures contracts. This could help users earn money while managing risk.
  2. There are concerns about Ethena's design, including the fact that it relies on staked ETH, which carries more risks. If things go wrong, users might face significant losses.
  3. While Ethena might seem like a good option now, it's important for investors to be cautious and understand the risks involved, as past attempts in this area have often failed.

The o1 System Card Is Not About o1

Don't Worry About the Vase • 2732 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. The o1 System Card does not accurately reflect the true capabilities of the o1 model, leading to confusion about its performance and safety. It's important for companies to communicate clearly about what their products can really do.
  2. There were significant failures in testing and evaluating the o1 model before its release, raising concerns about safety and effectiveness based on inaccurate data. Models need thorough checks to ensure they meet safety standards before being shared with the public.
  3. Many results from evaluations were based on older versions of the model, which means we don't have good information about the current version's abilities. This underlines the need for regular updates and assessments to understand the capabilities of AI models.

Interest Rate Risks are Collapsing Banks

The Informationist • 1650 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals

Investing Update: Bearish Data Emerges

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Major U.S. indexes pulled back this week, led by technology, signaling a modest consolidation as investors reassess valuations and seasonal weakness approaches.
  2. On the surface breadth is strong—every S&P sector is above its 200‑day moving average and equal‑weight stocks are outperforming—but the leadership is defensive (materials, energy, utilities) while tech and communications lag, which raises questions about the rally's durability.
  3. There’s hidden stress under the indexes: an unusually large number of individual S&P stocks plunged 7%+ in a short period, a pattern that historically precedes much larger market drawdowns and increases the risk of a bigger selloff.

Down 60%, One Stock I Still Love

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. A big price drop doesn't automatically mean the investment idea is wrong.
  2. The core fundamental drivers supporting the long-term thesis remain intact, so the opportunity still exists despite the decline.
  3. The decline makes the risk profile clearer, and after reassessing, the long-duration opportunity can still justify holding or buying.

What 25 Years of Investing Taught Me: 12 Mistakes Your Brain Keeps Making

Behavioral Value Investor • 163 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Always understand what you're investing in. Don't rush; take time to study the company and its future.
  2. Look beyond just numbers when investing. Pay attention to the company's quality and management to get a fuller picture.
  3. Be cautious with your investments and think long-term. Quick gains are tempting, but they often lead to losses.

Navigating AI Risks with ATLAS

Resilient Cyber • 19 implied HN points • 04 Sep 24
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. MITRE's ATLAS helps organizations understand the risks associated with AI and machine learning systems. It provides a detailed look at what attackers might do and how to counteract those strategies.
  2. The ATLAS framework includes various tactics and techniques that cover the entire lifecycle of an attack, from reconnaissance to execution and beyond. This helps businesses prepare better defenses against potential threats.
  3. Using tools like ATLAS and its companion resources can help secure AI adoption and development by highlighting vulnerabilities and suggesting mitigations to reduce risks.

A small progress

Thái | Hacker | Kỹ sư tin tặc • 818 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. The Vietnamese Government is focusing on enhancing cybersecurity in the banking and cashless payment sectors to prevent system intrusions and theft from bank accounts.
  2. Foreign hackers have previously stolen significant amounts of money from domestic banks in Vietnam, prompting authorities to take action.
  3. Efforts by organizations like Calif, led by the author, aim to reduce vulnerabilities in critical national systems and contribute to enhancing security measures in Vietnam.

Software's Iron Triangle: Cheap, Fast and Good - Pick Two

Resilient Cyber • 39 implied HN points • 14 Aug 24
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Balancing quality in software is tough. You can have it cheap, fast, or good, but you can only pick two options.
  2. There's a big gap in information between software makers and users. Many users don’t really know what's in the software they use or how secure it is.
  3. The security of software often takes a back seat to speed and cost. This leads to issues where security measures are seen as extra costs, not necessities.

If I Had To Buy 4 Stocks Monday Morning...

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. A curated 26-stock portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by about 5% on an equal-weighted basis, which suggests the selection process is working.
  2. If forced to buy only four stocks, the approach would be three familiar names plus one new small position added recently.
  3. The four picks are chosen across different risk profiles and narratives to blend pessimism, durability, and long-term optionality.

Climate Journalism Done Right

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1933 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Risk management
  1. Billion-dollar disasters, like hurricanes, are becoming more common, but this may be more about increasing populations and property in storm-prone areas than just climate change.
  2. The data used by NOAA to track these disasters was not originally intended to prove or analyze the impact of climate change, which raises questions about its relevance to climate policy.
  3. Experts agree that while climate change is real, the way we categorize and understand disaster costs is heavily influenced by societal growth and the increasing value of assets in risky areas.

Breaking Burry

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 163 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Short sellers like Michael Burry often see problems in the market before others do, but current market conditions are making it hard for them to profit.
  2. The market has become distorted due to excessive liquidity, which is making poor companies appear successful and keeping bad investments afloat.
  3. Burry's decision to step back from managing his fund signals awareness of these distortions, as he believes that the fundamentals will eventually matter again when the market returns to reality.

The new threat model for AI

Frankly Speaking • 457 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. With AI, the focus should shift from just stopping data theft to preventing manipulation. Instead of an attacker trying to steal information, they might want to influence decisions made by an AI system without being noticed.
  2. Security teams need to change their approach to monitoring. It's not enough to just track who accesses data; they should also keep an eye on how AI outputs are influenced by their inputs and the intent behind actions.
  3. As AI becomes integrated into systems, there will be a need for better prevention strategies, like robust logging and identifying who did what. This proactive approach will help maintain trust in AI decisions.

Managing Expand Projects

Software Design: Tidy First? • 1193 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💼 Business Risk management
  1. In a phase of rapid growth, problems can emerge suddenly, and it's crucial to focus on quick fixes instead of getting bogged down in perfect plans. This might mean using basic solutions to keep things running.
  2. When facing high demand and limited resources, the goal is to delay or prevent resource shortages. This can involve spending more money or reducing the growth rate to manage resources better.
  3. It's important to stay calm and creative during crises. Experimenting with new ideas in small, parallel teams can help find solutions quickly, which is necessary to continue growing without causing irreversible problems.

How I Bet on Sports

Malt Liquidity • 19 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
🎾 Sports Risk management
  1. Treat live bets like zero-day options and favor underdogs: capture flow-driven slippage by betting more when odds lengthen, avoid hedging against your own positions, and use cash-outs or offsets sparingly.
  2. Construct parlays with a clear game "script" and correlated but independent legs: stick to 3–4 legs that are likely to resolve early to get leverage while avoiding simple coin-flip combinations, and remember books will dampen obvious same-player correlations.
  3. Manage risk first and know when to stop: be extremely risk-controlled until you’ve grown your bankroll, don’t chase losses or bet against your own views, let volatility work for you, and walk away when returns hit diminishing margins.

Safety Not Guaranteed

The Better Letter • 471 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Safety in investing and in life is not guaranteed.
  2. Correlation does not imply causation, and certainty in outcomes is rare.
  3. The index mindset favors average results but may overlook opportunities for greater reward and growth.

Market Volatility: Some Thoughts

Mule’s Musings • 102 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. The market is experiencing a long-awaited correction, which means prices are adjusting after being too high for too long.
  2. This correction is influenced by more technical factors than people might think.
  3. Understanding these technical aspects can help investors make better decisions during times of market volatility.

Why Insurance Companies Are Rationally Failing Their Social Purpose

Software Design: Tidy First? • 1391 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Insurance is meant to convert risks into opportunities, allowing people to buy homes and start businesses by protecting lenders against losses. But it's complicated when companies only want to insure low-risk customers.
  2. Insurance companies often cut back on the risks they cover to stay competitive and offer lower prices, which means they might not support those in need, like entrepreneurs with health issues.
  3. For insurance to work as it should, companies need to stop focusing solely on low-risk clients. They should start covering real people, including those who are a bit riskier, to provide the societal benefits that insurance was originally designed for.

Futarchy, Distortions from Hedging, and Other Thoughts

Something to Consider • 79 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Risk management
  1. Futarchy is a new way to make decisions where people vote on what they want to achieve, but experts decide the best way to get there using prediction markets. This means we focus on outcomes instead of specific policies.
  2. When people are risk-averse, they might prefer safer options, and this can affect the choices made in a futarchy setup. It’s important to balance between achieving high goals and taking on too much risk.
  3. Even though prediction markets are useful, they can be skewed by people's efforts to hedge against risks. This means prices might not always reflect the true chances of outcomes, but they can still provide valuable information.

Why pessimists make more money

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. People value stories more than raw data and will pay for explanations about the economy even when they already have the forecasts.
  2. Among buyers of narratives, pessimistic stories command a higher price, so pessimists can charge more for their outlooks.
  3. Different people prefer different narratives: overconfident buyers lean toward pessimistic views, motivated reasoners seek biased (optimistic or pessimistic) stories, and those focused on accuracy choose the consensus narrative.

The Machine as Manager

Brave New Teams • 16 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Autonomous organisations are already emerging: software now runs pricing, routing, risk and learning, while humans shift toward exception handling, goal-setting and oversight.
  2. Success depends on trust and accountability, not just accuracy; firms will need constraint-by-design, audit trails, incident reporting and clear governance to make autonomy legitimate.
  3. Autonomy brings real risks like metric gaming, slow drift and brittleness, so resilience measures and human custodians who set values and handle ambiguity are essential, and law and norms will likely evolve to reshape corporate forms and roles.

Bringing Security Out of the Shadows

Resilient Cyber • 99 implied HN points • 06 Jun 24
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Shadow usage happens when employees use technology without telling the IT or security teams. This is easy to do, especially with things like personal devices and remote work.
  2. Cybersecurity teams often react to problems instead of staying ahead of technology trends. Instead of waiting for issues to arise, they should explore and adapt new technologies early.
  3. Long-lasting issues between security teams and other departments lead to frustration. If security teams work better with others, they can create a smoother, more productive environment.

The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!

Musings on Markets • 759 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Equity risk premium (ERP) is the extra return investors expect from risky investments compared to risk-free ones. Understanding this helps investors make better decisions about stocks.
  2. Different methods to measure ERP can give very different results. It's important to understand why and how these estimates change over time.
  3. Using a consistent and logical approach to estimating ERP is crucial for making informed investment choices. Each method has its pros and cons, and what works best may depend on your investment goals.