The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

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Five possible reasons China's productivity slowed down

Noahpinion • 15529 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics International Trade Productivity Corporate strategy Market Trends
  1. China's productivity growth has slowed down due to hitting natural limits in technology absorption and an aging population. As they reached the tech frontier, it became harder to improve productivity at the same pace.
  2. R&D productivity in China is low, especially in state-owned companies. The focus has shifted to quantity over quality in research, leading to many low-quality studies and less innovation.
  3. China's economy is heavily reliant on investment rather than consumption. Unlike the U.S., which benefits from high consumer spending, China may be missing out on productivity gains from a robust consumer market.

More Odds and Ends

David Friedman’s Substack • 170 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economics Political polarization Social Issues
  1. Tariffs can raise revenue for a country but may not be the best tax choice compared to broader taxes. A high tariff rate would require taxing a major portion of imports, which isn’t practical.
  2. Bigotry can stem from people's rigid mental models not matching reality. When someone or something doesn't fit cleanly into these models, it can create discomfort and irritation.
  3. Political polarization is increasing, and it might help if political parties were less sorted. Encouraging issues that don’t follow the typical left/right divide could lead to more cooperation between parties.

China's Silent Depression: An Unseen Economic Crisis

COVID Reason • 237 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Debt Globalization Real Estate Crisis
  1. China had a huge economic boom driven by global demand for its products, creating an illusion of strong governance.
  2. The 2008 global crisis revealed China's vulnerabilities, leading to rising debt and a focus on real estate to cope with slowed growth.
  3. Now, China's heavy debt and real estate issues are growing problems, signaling a decline in globalization that previously supported its economy.

Americans hate inflation more than they hate unemployment

Noahpinion • 21882 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Economics Public Opinion Policy Analysis Political strategy
  1. Inflation annoys people more than unemployment. When prices go up, it feels like everyone's money is worth less, making people unhappy.
  2. Many voters care about how the economy is doing, especially inflation. This has been shown in surveys where people mention inflation as a big concern.
  3. Democratic strategies may need to change. Focusing too much on full employment without worrying about inflation could lead to big political losses.

"Paycheck-to-paycheck" and five other popular myths

Noahpinion • 17000 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Public Policy Surveys Political Commentary
  1. Many popular economic claims, like '60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck,' are often incorrect and based on unreliable sources.
  2. Surveys from trusted government institutions show that a majority of people actually have enough savings to cover three months of expenses, contradicting the paycheck-to-paycheck myth.
  3. There are many other myths about exercise, education, immigration, and spending that are widely accepted but lack proper evidence, showing that misinformation can spread even in an information-rich society.
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At least five interesting things: Nerdy economics edition (#54)

Noahpinion • 16529 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Taxation Health care Regulation Productivity
  1. The Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT) could help companies invest more and boost U.S. exports. It changes how corporate taxes work, making it easier for companies to grow and innovate.
  2. Construction productivity in the U.S. has been dropping, partly due to strict land-use regulations. These rules lead to smaller, less efficient construction firms, which impacts how quickly and effectively projects are completed.
  3. Not all so-called 'irrational' decisions people make are true mistakes; sometimes, it's just that the choices are too complex. We need to rethink how we view human decision-making in economics.

The way we live in the United States is not normal

Changing The Channel • 33626 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Issues Healthcare Economics Culture Society
  1. In the United States, there is a sense of normalcy around high costs for education and healthcare, which contrasts with other countries where these are considered basic human rights.
  2. The social dynamics in the US make casual, spontaneous interactions with friends difficult to maintain, unlike in some other parts of the world where daily connections are more common.
  3. The increasing expenses, especially in housing, in the US are leading to a situation where even successful professionals find it challenging to afford a balanced life, pushing many towards burnout and dissatisfaction.

Why Japan opened itself up to immigration

Noahpinion • 13059 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economics Policy International relations
  1. Japan used to be very strict about immigration for a long time, unlike many other rich countries. But starting around 2010, Japan began allowing more immigrants into the country.
  2. Despite not taking in many immigrants for years, Japan had a good quality of life during the 1990s and 2000s. However, the country faced issues like low wages and living standards, which led them to change their immigration policies.
  3. Many people think Japan is unique because of its racial homogeneity, but it's actually similar to other developed countries in how it deals with immigration. It's important not to create myths about Japan that could mislead other countries.

Economic Lessons from the Screwtape Letters

Kyla’s Newsletter • 451 implied HN points • 21 May 25
💼 Business Economics Finance Consumer behavior Market Trends Cultural analysis
  1. Rejection is becoming a part of everyday life, especially for young people. They face so many job and college applications but get very few chances.
  2. Convenience in our lives is making us feel less connected and more anxious. Things are so easy now that we don’t put in the effort to really enjoy or appreciate them.
  3. Surprise is disappearing in our culture, with new creative ideas being replaced by recycled ones. This loss makes our experiences less rich and fulfilling.

The Value of Foreign Diplomas

Cremieux Recueil • 483 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Education Employment Economics Policy
  1. People often assume that a degree from a prestigious school means a candidate is more qualified, but the same should apply to comparing U.S. natives with immigrants. Many immigrants may not have the same skills or education levels as U.S. natives who have degrees.
  2. Research shows that immigrants with foreign degrees often perform worse than U.S. natives with degrees in tests of literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving. This suggests a gap in skills that may not be recognized.
  3. Reforming immigration by focusing on skill-based assessments rather than just degrees could lead to better outcomes for the U.S. It would allow for hiring more skilled immigrants while still benefiting the native population.

🎓 On the origins of the merchant class

Obsidian Iceberg • 59 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💾 History Trade Commerce Colonization Economics Civilizations
  1. Merchants used to work for kings and leaders, getting luxury goods for them. Over time, trade changed to focus on profit rather than just serving powerful rulers.
  2. As trade expanded, merchants started catering to smaller clients. This shift led to more diverse trading networks and a wider variety of goods available.
  3. Cities grew as places of commerce, not just government. Instead of being mainly for rulers, urban areas became important for trade and economic activity.

It’s a good thing to have several suppliers

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Trade Market Analysis Inflation
  1. Having many suppliers is important for businesses. It helps keep prices lower because they can compare options more easily.
  2. If companies rely on just one supplier, they might save money at first but face risks later, especially if there are problems like tariffs.
  3. Countries with diverse supply chains can handle trade issues better. For instance, if the US and EU have a trade dispute, the EU might face less inflation due to their varied suppliers.

A Quick Q&A on predicting super AI through bond markets with … Trevor Chow

Faster, Please! • 91 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Markets Interest Rates Investment Economics AI
  1. Interest rates might predict the rise of advanced AI. As people expect big changes, they want to spend more now instead of saving for the future.
  2. Higher long-term growth expectations often lead to higher real interest rates. This shows that bond markets can hint at when transformative AI might arrive.
  3. Both positive and negative outcomes of AI can push rates up. Whether AI leads to great progress or poses risks, people behave similarly by wanting to consume now.

The Market's Mirror, Exhibit "A"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stock Trading Financial trends
  1. The stock market might be slowing down soon, which is a concern for investors. It's important to pay attention to popular stocks for signs of this change.
  2. There's a belief that we could be on the brink of a significant market crash that could confuse many investors. Being aware of market behaviors can help prepare for what's next.
  3. Frustration with everyday items could be a sign of larger issues, showing that people are feeling the stress of the current economic situation. This reflects broader feelings about the market right now.

An Athenian Odyssey

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Investing Economics Regulation Market Trends
  1. Greek banks faced huge challenges after a financial crisis, losing most of their market value and seeing many loans go unpaid.
  2. Despite a tough recovery process, the Greek economy is growing again, and banks are starting to regain investor confidence.
  3. A transformation is underway in Greece, with international banks showing interest in investing, which reflects a healthier banking system.

The American Empire is Losing Money in Europe. Will It Abandon Europe?

Glenn’s Substack • 859 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Economics Political Economy Security Studies
  1. Europe is struggling because it is not adapting to the new multipolar world. Instead of building ties with other major economies, it is relying heavily on the U.S., which makes it weaker.
  2. Countries around the world are trying to diversify their economic connections to avoid too much dependence on a single superpower. Europe, on the other hand, is falling behind by sticking closely to U.S. interests.
  3. As the U.S. shifts its focus to Asia, Europe risks losing its political and economic relevance. If Europe doesn’t change its approach, it might find itself increasingly sidelined.

Subscrive Drive 2025 + Free Unlocked Posts

Astral Codex Ten • 6400 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Subscriptions Finance Marketing Media Economics
  1. You can subscribe to Astral Codex Ten for paid access, which includes extra articles and special threads for subscribers. It's a chance to support the blog and get more content.
  2. The blog had strong subscriber growth at first but has seen a drop in recent years. The author encourages financial support but understands if people cannot afford it.
  3. Several subscriber-only posts offer unique insights, covering topics like historical figures and personal reflections. When you subscribe, you can access a lot of great content.

What Does “exploit” Mean?

David Friedman’s Substack • 287 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Ethics Morality Utilitarianism Economics Social justice
  1. The term 'exploit' can mean two different things: benefiting from an interaction or causing one party to lose while the other gains. It's important to differentiate these meanings to understand whether exploitation is actually happening.
  2. In some cases, people feel that exploitation occurs when there is a big difference in gains between two parties, like in the example of trading cards or water in the desert. However, the fairness of a transaction can depend on additional context.
  3. People may have strong feelings about what is fair or unfair in transactions based on their moral intuitions. These feelings can guide opinions about exploitation, even when the actual economic circumstances suggest a different view.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 99 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investing Monetary Policy Capital Markets Earnings Reports
  1. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo recently reported stable profits, showing no significant changes in the economy. This suggests that businesses remain steady despite economic shifts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates has helped lift capital markets positively.
  3. The effects of monetary policy, like interest rate changes, often take time to show in the economy, explaining why things seem unchanged right now.

What if tanker crew deaths are intolerable?

Gordian Knot News • 783 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Regulation Manufacturing Safety Productivity
  1. When building ships, having clear rules helps keep everything running smoothly. If everyone knows the guidelines, they can work together to create quality ships on time.
  2. Bringing in third parties like the Ocean Safety Directorate can disrupt the process. Their focus on preventing accidents leads to extra paperwork and slowed productivity.
  3. If the rules are too strict or unclear, it can result in delays and lower quality. Maintaining a balance between safety and efficiency is key to successful shipbuilding.

Economics Links, 5/16/2025

In My Tribe • 364 implied HN points • 16 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Housing Spending Policy
  1. The China shock might not be as bad as people think; cheap imports could help U.S. manufacturers by lowering their costs and making them more competitive.
  2. In Los Angeles, strict zoning laws have made housing scarce. This has led to high home prices and an increase in homelessness, making it tough for many to afford a place to live.
  3. Republicans are facing challenges with the federal budget, especially with rising entitlement spending. It's hard to fix the deficit by just cutting other spending without reforming entitlements.

Hot take on an AI catfight

Marcus on AI • 6165 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Infrastructure National Security Economics Environmental Impact
  1. OpenAI is launching a big project called The Stargate Project, which plans to invest $500 billion to improve AI infrastructure in the U.S. Over the next four years, they hope this will help the country's economy and national security.
  2. Elon Musk is skeptical about the funding and the true financial health of OpenAI. He suggests that previous promises may not hold true and questions whether this project will really benefit the American people.
  3. There are several uncertainties about this project, like whether developing AI will actually be profitable and how it might impact jobs. People worry if the profits will help everyone or just the rich, and if the U.S. can truly keep up with China's advancements in AI.

Take the Unicorn Pill

Jeff Giesea • 838 implied HN points • 09 Sep 24
💼 Business Economics Wealth Startups Inequality Innovation
  1. We're living in an Age of Asymmetry where a few companies and individuals hold most of the wealth and power. This creates big imbalances in society.
  2. Small, smart players can have a huge impact thanks to new technologies. Sometimes, these disruptions can lead to unexpected and significant changes.
  3. It's important to find ways to support everyone, not just the top few percent. If we ignore the growing gaps, it could lead to serious problems for our society.

🍼 Confronting global population collapse: A Quick Q&A with … demographer Nick Eberstadt

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Economics Political Economy Social Issues
  1. Global population is set to decline for the first time in history, mainly because people are choosing to have fewer children. This shift poses big challenges for governments worldwide.
  2. Unlike past population declines, like during the Black Death, today's situation is driven by personal choices rather than disease. We now face a situation of fewer births happening across different cultures and societies.
  3. The reasons for lower birth rates are complex. It's not just about wealth, as many poorer countries are also experiencing declining birth rates. People's desires for children play a crucial role in understanding these trends.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Mortgage Economics Real Estate Investment
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes have decreased slightly in May. This shows some improvement from the previous month.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's delinquency rates are still higher than they were last year, but they are below pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Multi-family delinquency rates are nearing their highest levels since 2011, not counting the pandemic, indicating some stress in that sector.

Understanding Inequality: Can Gini Coefficients Be Fruitfully Demystified? (Revised and Expanded)

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inequality Economics Policy Analysis Social Issues
  1. Gini Coefficients are complex measures of inequality that many people struggle to understand. It might be better to use simpler measures based on income percentiles, which are easier for people to relate to.
  2. When discussing income disparity, it's important to connect the data to real-life situations. Relating income differences to the average income helps individuals grasp the extent of inequality more easily.
  3. Income inequality affects people's experiences and social interactions. Understanding this can provide insights into how economic differences impact relationships and feelings of envy or spite among different economic classes.

#168 – Tariffs, Tai Chi, and T-Shirts

Below the Line from Kevin LaBuz • 4 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
💼 Business E-commerce Economics AI Market Trends Consumer behavior
  1. E-commerce is stabilizing after a rocky period, showing steady growth despite some challenges. Companies are focusing on maintaining balance without significant booming or breaking.
  2. Consumer spending is still strong but cautious, with people opting for smaller purchases rather than big-ticket items. Shoppers are looking for value, especially in areas like secondhand goods.
  3. AI technology is increasingly being used by companies, leading to small but meaningful improvements in operations. Firms are careful with spending, moving towards smarter investment strategies to boost growth.

AI is yet another platform shift

Generating Conversation • 280 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Automation Economics Software
  1. AI is a big change in technology, similar to how the printing press changed information sharing. It will automate some jobs but also create many new opportunities.
  2. As AI makes tasks cheaper and easier, more people will want to use these services. This means new demands and markets will open up that we didn't see before.
  3. For AI to be successful, it needs to work well with what businesses are already doing, and building trust with customers is very important.

What Homes Are Missing, again?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💼 Business Housing Economics Data Analysis Market Trends Population Growth
  1. There is a significant shortage of homes in the U.S., estimated at around 15 million. This is due to various factors like vacancies and the rising number of adults per home.
  2. Vacancies have dropped over the years, and we might be short about 5 million vacant units needed to keep rent inflation stable.
  3. Population growth has slowed since 2008 and has likely affected housing demand, which adds pressure to the existing housing shortage.

It's All Hitting The Fan Now

OK Doomer • 236 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Health Economics Society Public Safety
  1. People are starting to feel uneasy about the state of the world, as many issues are becoming urgent and visible. It can be overwhelming to watch everything unfold.
  2. There's a growing sense of vindication among those who warned about these issues, but it still feels strange and not entirely satisfying. Many are wishing they had done more to prepare.
  3. It's important to take action and help others during these challenging times. Preparing for potential crises can make a difference and support your community.

o3, AGI, the art of the demo, and what you can expect in 2025

Marcus on AI • 6481 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Software Ethics Research Economics
  1. OpenAI's new model, o3, was shown in a demo, but we can't be sure yet if it truly represents advanced AI or AGI. The demo only highlighted what OpenAI wanted to show and didn't allow public testing.
  2. The cost of using o3 is really high, potentially making it impractical compared to human workers. Even if it gets cheaper, there are concerns about how effective it would be across different tasks.
  3. Many claims about reaching AGI might pop up in 2025, but those claims need to be taken with caution. True advances in AI should involve solving more foundational problems rather than just impressive demos.

Short Takes #1

Am I Stronger Yet? • 125 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
🕹 Technology AI Cybersecurity Big Data Machine Learning Economics
  1. AI is changing cybersecurity, but it’s hard to predict how it will affect us. Experts are discussing the right questions to understand its impact.
  2. Meta AI is possibly having a bigger influence than we think, especially in emerging economies. Many people are using it regularly in their daily apps.
  3. AI models are evolving, and their new skills might bring both benefits and risks. There’s a growing concern that they could share harmful information as they get smarter.

“Nvidia could soon take a serious hit, too”

Marcus on AI • 4228 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Market Trends Economics Tech Companies Data Analysis
  1. Nvidia's stock might be facing a big drop, which is a concern for investors. A decline over 10% indicates that something is going on in the market.
  2. The market can behave in unpredictable ways, and this uncertainty can be tough for investors to manage. Today might be a key moment in the stock market.
  3. Overall, the economics of generative AI can lead to unexpected changes, making it a wild area to watch for investors and tech enthusiasts.

Subscribe to This Book?

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 59 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🕹 Technology AI Software Innovation History Economics
  1. Technology is changing really fast, making it hard to keep track of everything. Books can't keep up, so there's a need for ongoing updates.
  2. The author wants to create a subscription model for readers to get continuous updates on technology's history. This way, readers can have the latest information and not just a single snapshot.
  3. There's a concern that current AI technologies may not scale well and could lead to a tech crash, similar to past tech bubbles. Real human intelligence still has a unique edge over artificial intelligence.

How Tariffs Are Breaking US Trade

Apricitas Economics • 123 implied HN points • 15 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economics Foreign Relations Tariffs Policy Analysis
  1. Tariffs are causing a big rise in costs for American consumers, with the government collecting record amounts from tariffs, which is hitting wallets hard.
  2. There has been a major drop in trade with China, with imports like electronics and vehicles seeing huge declines, making it harder for American businesses to get supplies.
  3. The ongoing trade war has created a lot of uncertainty, leading to unstable trade patterns and affecting exports to important partners like Canada and Mexico.

May 2025 Updates

New Things Under the Sun • 160 implied HN points • 27 May 25
🔬 Science Research Innovation R&D Economics Technology
  1. Recent studies show that government funding for research and development (R&D) yields high returns. Estimates suggest that every dollar spent on non-defense government R&D could generate benefits worth up to 210%.
  2. The composition of R&D funding has changed over the years. While support for applied research has dropped, funding for basic research has remained stable as a fraction of GDP.
  3. A significant research paper claiming that AI boosts innovation was retracted due to issues with the data and its credibility. This highlights the need for careful evaluation of research, especially when it could have major implications.