The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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2024 Annual Letter: Generational Company, Generational Wealth

Interconnected • 354 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Wealth Economics Market Trends Portfolio Management
  1. Investing in technology, especially in areas like AI and cloud infrastructure, can be a promising way to build wealth over time. It's important to focus on companies with strong fundamentals that are expected to grow for many years.
  2. Tariffs and geopolitical events can greatly impact investment strategies, so it's crucial to seek out portfolio positions that are less sensitive to such changes. This helps in managing risks and stabilizing returns.
  3. Building generational wealth means finding robust companies that will still thrive in the future. Personal experiences can shape how we view long-term investments and what makes a company worth investing in.

✨⏩ What DeepSeek means for faster AI-driven economic growth

Faster, Please! • 1005 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Technology Investments Productivity Global Trade
  1. DeepSeek's AI models show that effective technology doesn't always need expensive equipment, which could change how companies develop AI.
  2. Goldman Sachs believes AI could significantly boost productivity and global GDP, similar to tech booms seen in the past.
  3. The rise of cheaper AI models could lead to faster adoption of technology in businesses, which may help improve overall efficiency and economic growth.

AI: Productivity vs Performance

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 293 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Workforce AI Impact Productivity
  1. AI can create both big opportunities and greater inequalities in the workforce. While some people will thrive, others might struggle even more.
  2. Current pay models based on time may not work well anymore. Focusing on how much work gets done, rather than just hours worked, could be better for both companies and employees.
  3. The future job market may see more freelancers and solopreneurs. Schools should prepare students for entrepreneurship, as many people might choose to work for themselves.

Our community round has opened—let's fund this book!

The Novelleist • 282 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💼 Business Investment Crowdfunding Publishing Economics Capitalism
  1. The community funding round for the book 'We Should Own The Economy' has opened, allowing readers to invest and share in potential profits.
  2. They have already raised almost $60,000 and invite everyone to confirm their investments through a provided link.
  3. There's an open call tonight where participants can ask questions about the book and contribute ideas on how to shape the future of capitalism.

Who Will Be the Japan of the AI Era?

European Straits • 40 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💼 Business AI Production Innovation Economics Workforce
  1. Countries or regions that can best adapt their institutions to support AI technology will be the leaders in the AI era, similar to how Japan led in manufacturing with its innovative practices.
  2. Lean production showcased that the real breakthroughs come from rethinking how to organize and manage work rather than solely relying on new technologies. AI has the potential to do the same in knowledge work today.
  3. Successful integration of AI will require cooperation across entire supply chains, not just within individual companies, similar to how Japanese companies thrived through partnerships and collaboration.
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Things I wish the left got about economics

Philosophy bear • 801 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Public Policy Regulation Social justice Government
  1. The left should focus on offering positive solutions to economic problems, rather than just criticizing the existing system. Proposals need to be practical and beneficial in real life.
  2. Understanding key economic concepts, like public goods and externalities, is crucial. This knowledge helps in crafting effective policies and regulations.
  3. It's important to recognize that regulations aren't free solutions and need thoughtful design and expertise. A well-organized government can make these regulations work better for society.

Pivotal Tech Company: 50% Drop in Orders

COVID Reason • 237 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Economics Markets Technology Innovation
  1. ASML, a major company in the semiconductor industry, saw a huge 50% drop in future bookings. This suggests some big challenges in the market right now.
  2. The decline in orders points to larger economic issues that could be affecting many companies. It shows how quickly things can change in the world of tech.
  3. Overall, this situation reveals that the financial landscape can be unpredictable. Companies need to stay alert to these shifts to manage risks properly.

Dirty Work: The Return of Blue Collar

State of the Future • 144 implied HN points • 04 Jun 25
💼 Business Employment Economics Labor Automation Education
  1. AI is taking over many white-collar jobs, especially those that are routine and easily automated. Many of these roles aren't as valuable as we once thought.
  2. There are plenty of blue-collar jobs available that can provide real satisfaction and meaning. These jobs often require skills that AI cannot replicate.
  3. Blue-collar jobs are likely to gain more respect and higher status in the future. We should encourage young people to consider these careers now.

Outlawing Price Gouging Will Only Hurt Angelenos

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1052 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Economics Government Legislation Public Opinion
  1. Outlawing price hikes might seem fair, but it can actually hurt people more. When prices are kept too low, it can lead to shortages of essential items.
  2. Politicians often react to disasters by blaming businesses for high prices, but this can have negative consequences. Price increases can help balance supply and demand during tough times.
  3. Making price gouging illegal might sound good, but it might actually make it harder for people to find the supplies they need during emergencies.

More Odds and Ends

David Friedman’s Substack • 170 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economics Political polarization Social Issues
  1. Tariffs can raise revenue for a country but may not be the best tax choice compared to broader taxes. A high tariff rate would require taxing a major portion of imports, which isn’t practical.
  2. Bigotry can stem from people's rigid mental models not matching reality. When someone or something doesn't fit cleanly into these models, it can create discomfort and irritation.
  3. Political polarization is increasing, and it might help if political parties were less sorted. Encouraging issues that don’t follow the typical left/right divide could lead to more cooperation between parties.

China's Silent Depression: An Unseen Economic Crisis

COVID Reason • 237 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Debt Globalization Real Estate Crisis
  1. China had a huge economic boom driven by global demand for its products, creating an illusion of strong governance.
  2. The 2008 global crisis revealed China's vulnerabilities, leading to rising debt and a focus on real estate to cope with slowed growth.
  3. Now, China's heavy debt and real estate issues are growing problems, signaling a decline in globalization that previously supported its economy.

Deepseek Meets Li Qiang, Data Labeling Subsidies, Taiwan's Debt, Automation Optimism

ChinaTalk • 429 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Data Policy Automation Economics
  1. DeepSeek, a major player in China's AI sector, recently caught the attention of government leaders, highlighting its rise as a 'national champion.' This may lead to more funding but also increased scrutiny from the government.
  2. China is putting effort into developing the data labeling industry as a key part of its AI advancements, offering tax breaks and support to help businesses in this area grow. High-quality data is essential for effective AI development.
  3. Taiwan needs to rethink its strict debt policy to invest more in military and energy security due to rising threats from China. Maintaining a low debt level could limit Taiwan's ability to strengthen its defense.

The way we live in the United States is not normal

Changing The Channel • 33626 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Issues Healthcare Economics Culture Society
  1. In the United States, there is a sense of normalcy around high costs for education and healthcare, which contrasts with other countries where these are considered basic human rights.
  2. The social dynamics in the US make casual, spontaneous interactions with friends difficult to maintain, unlike in some other parts of the world where daily connections are more common.
  3. The increasing expenses, especially in housing, in the US are leading to a situation where even successful professionals find it challenging to afford a balanced life, pushing many towards burnout and dissatisfaction.

Why athletes like Cristiano Ronaldo and Max Verstappen are buying new private jets

Huddle Up • 23 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💼 Business Finance Economics Investments Sports Business Luxury goods
  1. Many athletes, like Cristiano Ronaldo and Max Verstappen, are buying private jets for convenience and comfort on their travels.
  2. Ronaldo's jet, often said to cost $70 million, was actually used and likely bought for much less — he may have even leased it instead.
  3. Private jets can save time and offer luxury, but it's important to understand the full costs, including operation and maintenance.

The Value of Foreign Diplomas

Cremieux Recueil • 483 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Education Employment Economics Policy
  1. People often assume that a degree from a prestigious school means a candidate is more qualified, but the same should apply to comparing U.S. natives with immigrants. Many immigrants may not have the same skills or education levels as U.S. natives who have degrees.
  2. Research shows that immigrants with foreign degrees often perform worse than U.S. natives with degrees in tests of literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving. This suggests a gap in skills that may not be recognized.
  3. Reforming immigration by focusing on skill-based assessments rather than just degrees could lead to better outcomes for the U.S. It would allow for hiring more skilled immigrants while still benefiting the native population.

🎓 On the origins of the merchant class

Obsidian Iceberg • 59 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💾 History Trade Commerce Colonization Economics Civilizations
  1. Merchants used to work for kings and leaders, getting luxury goods for them. Over time, trade changed to focus on profit rather than just serving powerful rulers.
  2. As trade expanded, merchants started catering to smaller clients. This shift led to more diverse trading networks and a wider variety of goods available.
  3. Cities grew as places of commerce, not just government. Instead of being mainly for rulers, urban areas became important for trade and economic activity.

Patents and National Power

ChinaTalk • 370 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Intellectual Property Innovation Economics International relations
  1. Patents are important for protecting inventors and fostering innovation. They give inventors exclusive rights to their creations, which encourages more people to invent and share new ideas.
  2. The U.S. patent system differs from other countries because it allows anyone to apply for a patent, making it more accessible. This has helped create a culture of innovation and economic growth in America.
  3. Recent changes in patent policies have made it harder for inventors to protect their ideas, which could slow down innovation. It's important for the U.S. to strengthen its patent system to maintain its leadership in technology and innovation.

4 Truths About OpenAI’s Wild Financial Position

Big Technology • 5504 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Investments Corporations Economics Startups
  1. OpenAI plans to change how it looks at training costs, suggesting these might not be fixed over time. This could impact their profits, as training expenses are significant.
  2. OpenAI believes that ChatGPT will generate more revenue than its API, showing confidence in its widespread use. They expect more people will want to interact with AI in the future, which could be risky if the growth doesn’t happen as hoped.
  3. OpenAI is already making big payments to Microsoft, which is one reason they expect to lose a lot of money this year. If their losses continue at this rate, they will need to raise more money soon.

We all deserve to be rich

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Wealth Taxation Income Economics Social justice
  1. Rich people often believe they deserve their wealth and should pay less taxes, while poor people think wealthy individuals should pay more. This shows a big difference in attitudes based on personal wealth.
  2. When people become wealthy through effort, they feel they earned it and support lower taxes. Surprisingly, even those who get rich by luck, like winning a lottery, also argue for lower taxes on their wealth.
  3. After people become wealthy, they often stop considering ideas about sharing wealth or paying higher taxes. They tend to seek out information that supports their own views, ignoring arguments for helping those less fortunate.

A Quick Q&A on predicting super AI through bond markets with … Trevor Chow

Faster, Please! • 91 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Markets Interest Rates Investment Economics AI
  1. Interest rates might predict the rise of advanced AI. As people expect big changes, they want to spend more now instead of saving for the future.
  2. Higher long-term growth expectations often lead to higher real interest rates. This shows that bond markets can hint at when transformative AI might arrive.
  3. Both positive and negative outcomes of AI can push rates up. Whether AI leads to great progress or poses risks, people behave similarly by wanting to consume now.

Top Links 627 Is the dollar overvalued? Larry Summers feeling good. Gold & the price of a Rolex & The Rise and Fall of the Italian economy.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Currency Market Trends Global Finance
  1. The dollar's value is being questioned right now, which is important for understanding the economy. Many people are debating whether it's too high or just right.
  2. Larry Summers, a noted economist, seems optimistic about the economic outlook. His confidence might suggest some positive trends ahead.
  3. There are intriguing comparisons being made between gold prices, the cost of luxury items like Rolexes, and the state of Italy's economy. These links can help highlight larger economic patterns.

The Market's Mirror, Exhibit "A"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stock Trading Financial trends
  1. The stock market might be slowing down soon, which is a concern for investors. It's important to pay attention to popular stocks for signs of this change.
  2. There's a belief that we could be on the brink of a significant market crash that could confuse many investors. Being aware of market behaviors can help prepare for what's next.
  3. Frustration with everyday items could be a sign of larger issues, showing that people are feeling the stress of the current economic situation. This reflects broader feelings about the market right now.

Putin's weak spot?

Comment is Freed • 92 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Negotiations Economics Military Leadership
  1. Peace talks between key leaders are starting, but Ukraine's concerns are being overlooked. They're worried that negotiations might not prioritize their interests.
  2. Putin appears to want a victory in negotiations but is only being offered a draw. This creates tension as the goals of Russia and the US don’t fully align.
  3. The state of Russia's economy is fragile due to the ongoing war, which could influence Putin's decisions in peace talks. He might seek a favorable deal now while the US administration is somewhat supportive.

The American Empire is Losing Money in Europe. Will It Abandon Europe?

Glenn’s Substack • 859 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Economics Political Economy Security Studies
  1. Europe is struggling because it is not adapting to the new multipolar world. Instead of building ties with other major economies, it is relying heavily on the U.S., which makes it weaker.
  2. Countries around the world are trying to diversify their economic connections to avoid too much dependence on a single superpower. Europe, on the other hand, is falling behind by sticking closely to U.S. interests.
  3. As the U.S. shifts its focus to Asia, Europe risks losing its political and economic relevance. If Europe doesn’t change its approach, it might find itself increasingly sidelined.

Top Links 628 Will IPOs recover? Worrying about France. The chances of a new pandemic & atomic spaghetti.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics IPOs Pandemics
  1. IPOs have been quiet even though US stocks are doing well. This surprises some people.
  2. There's a concern about France and its current issues. People are paying attention to what could happen next.
  3. Discussions about new pandemics and food safety are becoming important. It's a reminder that we need to stay informed and be cautious.

Subscrive Drive 2025 + Free Unlocked Posts

Astral Codex Ten • 6400 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Subscriptions Finance Marketing Media Economics
  1. You can subscribe to Astral Codex Ten for paid access, which includes extra articles and special threads for subscribers. It's a chance to support the blog and get more content.
  2. The blog had strong subscriber growth at first but has seen a drop in recent years. The author encourages financial support but understands if people cannot afford it.
  3. Several subscriber-only posts offer unique insights, covering topics like historical figures and personal reflections. When you subscribe, you can access a lot of great content.

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Mule’s Musings • 777 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Economics Stocks Industry Trends
  1. In 2024, AI technologies surged while many other sectors, especially automotive and smartphones, struggled. Companies like Nvidia saw huge gains, showcasing a divide in performance across the industry.
  2. The semiconductor market is cyclical, meaning trends can shift quickly. This year, companies that did poorly last year, could potentially do well, while top AI names might not see the same explosive growth.
  3. AI advancements are driving up costs and creating new economic challenges for tech companies. There's a bigger focus now on how much it costs to develop and maintain AI, differing from past trends where costs were lower.

What Does “exploit” Mean?

David Friedman’s Substack • 287 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Ethics Morality Utilitarianism Economics Social justice
  1. The term 'exploit' can mean two different things: benefiting from an interaction or causing one party to lose while the other gains. It's important to differentiate these meanings to understand whether exploitation is actually happening.
  2. In some cases, people feel that exploitation occurs when there is a big difference in gains between two parties, like in the example of trading cards or water in the desert. However, the fairness of a transaction can depend on additional context.
  3. People may have strong feelings about what is fair or unfair in transactions based on their moral intuitions. These feelings can guide opinions about exploitation, even when the actual economic circumstances suggest a different view.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 99 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investing Monetary Policy Capital Markets Earnings Reports
  1. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo recently reported stable profits, showing no significant changes in the economy. This suggests that businesses remain steady despite economic shifts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates has helped lift capital markets positively.
  3. The effects of monetary policy, like interest rate changes, often take time to show in the economy, explaining why things seem unchanged right now.

What if tanker crew deaths are intolerable?

Gordian Knot News • 783 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Regulation Manufacturing Safety Productivity
  1. When building ships, having clear rules helps keep everything running smoothly. If everyone knows the guidelines, they can work together to create quality ships on time.
  2. Bringing in third parties like the Ocean Safety Directorate can disrupt the process. Their focus on preventing accidents leads to extra paperwork and slowed productivity.
  3. If the rules are too strict or unclear, it can result in delays and lower quality. Maintaining a balance between safety and efficiency is key to successful shipbuilding.

Economics Links, 5/16/2025

In My Tribe • 364 implied HN points • 16 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Housing Spending Policy
  1. The China shock might not be as bad as people think; cheap imports could help U.S. manufacturers by lowering their costs and making them more competitive.
  2. In Los Angeles, strict zoning laws have made housing scarce. This has led to high home prices and an increase in homelessness, making it tough for many to afford a place to live.
  3. Republicans are facing challenges with the federal budget, especially with rising entitlement spending. It's hard to fix the deficit by just cutting other spending without reforming entitlements.

E(X)>0: An Open Letter to Elon

Bet On It • 925 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Public Policy Economics Government Entrepreneurship
  1. It's important to welcome people who can contribute positively, not just those who are obviously exceptional. This means considering everyone who has something to offer, even if they're not the top experts.
  2. Investment and hiring should be seen as opportunities with positive expected value, not just focused on certainty of success. This idea helps to foster growth and innovation in both companies and society.
  3. A good immigration policy should allow more people in, as long as they can contribute positively, like how the UAE has seen success by welcoming a range of skill levels instead of just the elite.

Meet the Indians Locked Out of the American Dream

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 728 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Legislation Social Issues Economics Labor Market
  1. Many immigrants find that the American dream feels unreachable due to strict visa regulations. These rules can make it hard for them to change jobs or start their own businesses.
  2. People like Atal Agarwal feel trapped by their immigration status, limiting their career choices and dreams. They often feel pressure to stick with jobs they may not want.
  3. Returning to their home country can feel like a loss of opportunity for some immigrants, especially when they have invested so much in their education and work in the U.S.

In Data Science for Non-STEM Majors, Is Learning-by-Watching Live Calculating Possible? Likely? Reasonable to Expect?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 238 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🚌 Education Data science Pedagogy Economics Analysis Learning methods
  1. Students today need basic data science skills to succeed after graduation. It's like letting them leave school without knowing how to read or write.
  2. Teaching data science can be tricky because students have different backgrounds. Some find it confusing, while others think it's too basic.
  3. It's important to keep trying to teach data science. Finding the right way to do it is necessary for better education and understanding.

The US Surrenders!

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 18 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Diplomacy Economics Military
  1. Trump has lost a lot of power in his dealings with Russia, making him appear weak. This puts Russia in control of peace talks and future negotiations.
  2. The U.S. economy is struggling, similar to how Rome fell in the past. There are calls to cut military spending and close bases abroad to improve the situation.
  3. Trump is in a difficult position, being blamed for economic problems and conflicts. Both Democrats and Republicans seem to want him to take the fall for these issues.

Most Human Wins

Not Boring by Packy McCormick • 270 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💼 Business Strategy Economics Technology AI
  1. As technology advances, many skills we thought were unique to humans are becoming easier for machines to do. However, this doesn't mean that humans are being made irrelevant; rather, we need to find what makes us unique.
  2. The process of commoditization means that things that were once rare and valuable are now easier and cheaper to access. This opens up new opportunities for what skills can be considered valuable in a changing economy.
  3. It’s important to adapt and use the tools at our disposal creatively. As machines take over more tasks, we should focus on our human strengths and experiences, making them central to our endeavors.

Take the Unicorn Pill

Jeff Giesea • 838 implied HN points • 09 Sep 24
💼 Business Economics Wealth Startups Inequality Innovation
  1. We're living in an Age of Asymmetry where a few companies and individuals hold most of the wealth and power. This creates big imbalances in society.
  2. Small, smart players can have a huge impact thanks to new technologies. Sometimes, these disruptions can lead to unexpected and significant changes.
  3. It's important to find ways to support everyone, not just the top few percent. If we ignore the growing gaps, it could lead to serious problems for our society.

ASML 2024 Q4 Financials

More Than Moore • 280 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💼 Business Finance Economics Investing Corporate Market Trends
  1. ASML had a great Q4 in 2024, with revenue hitting €9.3 billion, which is a 28% increase from the previous year. This makes it their highest earning quarter ever.
  2. The company shipped a total of 132 lithography machines in Q4, marking a strong demand for their products. They even sold their first High-NA EUV systems during this time.
  3. For 2025, ASML expects to continue growing with projected revenue between €30 billion and €35 billion. They are optimistic about increased sales in the AI chip market.

🍼 Confronting global population collapse: A Quick Q&A with … demographer Nick Eberstadt

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Economics Political Economy Social Issues
  1. Global population is set to decline for the first time in history, mainly because people are choosing to have fewer children. This shift poses big challenges for governments worldwide.
  2. Unlike past population declines, like during the Black Death, today's situation is driven by personal choices rather than disease. We now face a situation of fewer births happening across different cultures and societies.
  3. The reasons for lower birth rates are complex. It's not just about wealth, as many poorer countries are also experiencing declining birth rates. People's desires for children play a crucial role in understanding these trends.