The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Market Analysis Investment Housing policy
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.

What happened in brand and agency: WPP struggles, Instagram & AdTech vs Sensitive Content and Fashion Week

The Social Juice • 22 implied HN points • 02 Mar 25
💼 Business Marketing Advertising Branding Economics Trends
  1. WPP is facing tough challenges, highlighting the pressures in the advertising industry. This might mean changes for many companies and advertisers in how they operate.
  2. Instagram recently dealt with backlash over graphic content on its platform. This shows the ongoing struggle between user experience and ad tech, as brands seek engagement without alienating users.
  3. Building a strong community around a brand is key. Companies should nurture their audiences, allowing them to engage and share value, making the community feel connected to the brand itself.

Will the China Cycle Come for Airbus and Boeing?

Construction Physics • 33196 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💼 Business Aerospace Manufacturing Technology Economics International Trade
  1. China has been trying to develop its own commercial aircraft industry for decades but faces many challenges. From technology theft concerns to complex manufacturing processes, it hasn't succeeded like in other industries.
  2. The C919 jet is China's latest attempt to compete with Boeing and Airbus. While it's secured a good number of orders, issues with performance and certification limits its appeal in the global market.
  3. Airbus has been more successful in China due to establishing local assembly lines. This made them more competitive compared to Boeing, which hesitated to set up operations in China.

American Advantages in Economies of Scale

Erik Examines • 89 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Markets Consumer behavior Entrepreneurship Global Trade
  1. The size of America's consumer market helps businesses grow because they can reach a lot of people who can afford to buy their products. A bigger market means they can make more items faster, like how a big factory can produce more than a small workshop.
  2. Cultural similarities in America allow stores and brands to sell the same products across the country without changing much. This makes it easier for companies to run and for consumers to find what they want, no matter where they are.
  3. English, especially American English, is popular around the world. This helps American brands and culture spread more easily, making it a powerful tool for influence and business growth.

How An Informed Minority Took Over The World’s Biggest Firms

High ROI Data Science • 119 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💼 Business Strategy Management Economics Consulting Information Systems
  1. Information asymmetry is when one group knows more than another. This can create unfair advantages in social systems and businesses.
  2. The Werewolf Game illustrates how a small, informed group can control the majority. This game teaches us about strategy and deception in group dynamics.
  3. To protect ourselves from manipulation, we need to build mental firewalls. Knowing about information asymmetry helps us fight back against unfair advantages.
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At least five interesting things: Nerdy economics edition (#54)

Noahpinion • 16529 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Taxation Health care Regulation Productivity
  1. The Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT) could help companies invest more and boost U.S. exports. It changes how corporate taxes work, making it easier for companies to grow and innovate.
  2. Construction productivity in the U.S. has been dropping, partly due to strict land-use regulations. These rules lead to smaller, less efficient construction firms, which impacts how quickly and effectively projects are completed.
  3. Not all so-called 'irrational' decisions people make are true mistakes; sometimes, it's just that the choices are too complex. We need to rethink how we view human decision-making in economics.

"Paycheck-to-paycheck" and five other popular myths

Noahpinion • 17000 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Public Policy Surveys Political Commentary
  1. Many popular economic claims, like '60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck,' are often incorrect and based on unreliable sources.
  2. Surveys from trusted government institutions show that a majority of people actually have enough savings to cover three months of expenses, contradicting the paycheck-to-paycheck myth.
  3. There are many other myths about exercise, education, immigration, and spending that are widely accepted but lack proper evidence, showing that misinformation can spread even in an information-rich society.

Trump's 2nd Trade War Begins

Apricitas Economics • 91 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economics International relations Political strategy
  1. Trump has announced new tariffs on imports from key trading partners, including a 25% tax on all goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% from China. This could raise prices for everyday items in the U.S.
  2. These tariffs can hurt not only the U.S. economy by increasing costs and causing uncertainty but also negatively impact Canada and Mexico, whose economies rely heavily on trade with the U.S.
  3. The administration's approach seems rushed and chaotic, with no clear plans on how to implement these tariffs effectively, which might lead to further complications and delays.

Top Links 644 Buffett's filthy power plants. Inflation dynamics. Indian wars, Zazous & Pet Shop Boys

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💼 Business Finance Investments Economics Energy Corporate
  1. Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, runs some of the dirtiest coal power plants in the US. This highlights concerns about environmental responsibility.
  2. There are interesting discussions about inflation dynamics. Understanding these can help us navigate economic changes.
  3. The mention of Indian wars, Zazous, and Pet Shop Boys suggests a mix of cultural and historical themes worth exploring. Each has its unique impact on society.

‘I say the Americans really won the war’

Wrong Side of History • 417 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💾 History War Politics Economics Society Culture
  1. Many people in Vietnam felt that the U.S. helped them realize they preferred American presence over communism after the war. This shows how complex feelings about the war can be.
  2. After the war, Vietnam faced many issues due to communist policies that hurt its economy, leading to hunger and poverty for many years. The country struggled with efficiency and food shortages at that time.
  3. Vietnam saw a big change when it shifted towards a market-based economy in the 1980s. This led to significant economic growth and lifted many people out of poverty.

An Argument For Tariffs

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Trade Policy Defense Industry
  1. Tariffs can hurt consumers because they end up paying higher prices. Even if some believe they help local businesses, they can actually make those businesses less competitive.
  2. In some cases, tariffs might be necessary to protect industries that are important for national security, like drone technology. This can help the country stay strong in a competitive world.
  3. Big companies can create advantages that make it hard for others to compete. If countries like China dominate certain industries, tariffs may be needed to keep a fair playing field.

Americans hate inflation more than they hate unemployment

Noahpinion • 21882 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Economics Public Opinion Policy Analysis Political strategy
  1. Inflation annoys people more than unemployment. When prices go up, it feels like everyone's money is worth less, making people unhappy.
  2. Many voters care about how the economy is doing, especially inflation. This has been shown in surveys where people mention inflation as a big concern.
  3. Democratic strategies may need to change. Focusing too much on full employment without worrying about inflation could lead to big political losses.

Trigger Warning: Your Gig Platform is About to Get Ghosted

Gad’s Newsletter • 29 implied HN points • 03 Mar 25
💼 Business Economics Gig Economy Market Trends Startup
  1. Disintermediation is when users go around the platform to make deals directly, which can hurt the platform's business model. This often happens once users have established trust with workers.
  2. Platforms need to keep payments and information flowing through their systems to stay profitable and maintain trust. When users handle things off-platform, the platform loses its ability to manage quality and safety.
  3. Gig platforms like Protector must balance building trust and encouraging new connections to avoid losing customers. If users only hire familiar workers, they may skip using the app altogether.

Top Links 643 Office vacancies. Peak McDonald's. The case of Ireland and the legend of Ferdinand Piëch.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💼 Business Real Estate Economics Workplace Market Analysis
  1. Office vacancies are at a record high, with about 20.4% of office space in major US cities empty. This shows a big change in how people work now.
  2. The idea of 'Peak McDonald's' suggests that the fast-food giant may have reached its highest point in growth and popularity. It's interesting to think about how even big brands can change over time.
  3. The story of Ferdinand Piëch and the case of Ireland may provide lessons on leadership and innovation in business. These narratives help us understand how organizations can evolve or face challenges.

How Will Financial Scams Affect Big Business in 2025?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 1326 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Scams Economics Market Trends Financial Technology
  1. Financial scams are expected to impact big businesses in various ways by 2025. Companies will need to be more aware of these risks.
  2. There will be discussions on how different sectors, like private equity and tech, handle these scams. These sectors are likely to face unique challenges.
  3. A virtual summit is happening where experts will talk about these trends and share insights. It's a chance for everyone to learn and ask questions.

This Is What Fairer Trade with China Looks Like

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1080 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💼 Business Trade E-commerce Marketing Retail Economics
  1. There are differences in the tariffs that companies like Gap and H&M pay compared to platforms like Temu and Shein. This raises questions about fairness in trade practices.
  2. Brands like Shein and Temu are gaining a lot of attention through aggressive advertising on social media and other platforms.
  3. There is a culture emerging around 'haul' videos, where influencers showcase their purchases from these low-cost retailers, promoting consumerism.

‘Everything Is Gone’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 3542 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
📰 News Disaster Economics Personal Stories
  1. The recent fires in Los Angeles have caused massive destruction, burning more than 36,000 acres and destroying nearly 10,000 structures. That's a huge area, larger than the city of Miami.
  2. Over 100,000 people have been evacuated due to these fires, which have resulted in around 11 confirmed deaths so far. However, many are still unaccounted for, raising concerns for their safety.
  3. Even after losing everything, the people affected by the fires are holding on to hope. They share their stories and experiences, showing resilience despite the devastating circumstances.

o3, AGI, the art of the demo, and what you can expect in 2025

Marcus on AI • 6481 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Software Ethics Research Economics
  1. OpenAI's new model, o3, was shown in a demo, but we can't be sure yet if it truly represents advanced AI or AGI. The demo only highlighted what OpenAI wanted to show and didn't allow public testing.
  2. The cost of using o3 is really high, potentially making it impractical compared to human workers. Even if it gets cheaper, there are concerns about how effective it would be across different tasks.
  3. Many claims about reaching AGI might pop up in 2025, but those claims need to be taken with caution. True advances in AI should involve solving more foundational problems rather than just impressive demos.

"Climate Change is Showing its Claws"

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2718 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Natural Disasters Insurance Economics Global trends
  1. In 2024, global weather-related disaster losses reached $298 billion, with a significant portion occurring in the U.S., mainly due to hurricanes. This shows that while climate change impacts us, other factors like economic growth also play a big role.
  2. Today, disaster losses as a percentage of global GDP are less than they were 30 years ago. This suggests that despite increasing losses in dollars, extreme weather is not as devastating to the economy as it used to be.
  3. The rising insured losses are largely driven by construction in risky areas and inflation, rather than just climate change. It's important to consider these factors when looking at why disaster losses are increasing.

Is Stripe expensive, or is Adyen cheap?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💼 Business Startups Finance Economics Investments Sales
  1. Startups are growing faster than ever, hitting $5 million in annual revenue quicker than before. This shows that today's startups have better opportunities and strategies to scale up.
  2. Self-driving technology is making great progress, with companies like Waymo doubling their paid rides in less than a year. This suggests that self-driving cars are becoming more reliable and popular.
  3. Comparing Stripe and Adyen reveals that Stripe is investing heavily in future growth while Adyen focuses on efficiency and profits. This difference shows how each company has its own strategy to succeed in the market.

[P] SPHR: Sphere-Priced Incentives

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Stocks Economics Analysis
  1. Sphere-Priced Incentives are a new way to evaluate investments. They help in making decisions based on a specific pricing strategy.
  2. Understanding the risks can help in deciding whether to invest or not. We often find ourselves in tough situations when choosing these options.
  3. Paid subscriptions provide deeper insights into investing strategies. It's a good idea for those serious about improving their investment knowledge.

Gini Coefficients...

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inequality Economics Statistics Social Policy Education
  1. The Gini Coefficient measures income equality, where 0 means everyone is equal and 1 means one person has everything. It helps us understand how wealth is distributed in a society.
  2. Intermediate Gini values can be tricky to interpret. It's hard to know what a score like 0.25 or 0.62 really means in terms of real-life inequality.
  3. Understanding historical Gini scores can give insight into how different societies experience inequality, but the differences might not always feel significant or clear.

The game theory of Trump's tariff threats

Silver Bulletin • 978 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Game Theory Economics Diplomacy Political strategy
  1. Trump's tariff threats focus on Canada and Mexico, two neighbors that depend heavily on the U.S. for trade. This puts the U.S. in a position of power, even if such threats can backfire.
  2. The economics suggest that while tariffs might hurt all involved, Canada and Mexico would suffer significantly more than the U.S. This creates a dangerous imbalance in trade negotiations.
  3. Trump's approach may work as a short-term tactic, but it risks future relations with Canada and Mexico, leading to resentment and potential retaliation if pressured too much.

The great AI forecasting divide

Faster, Please! • 548 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Forecasting Economics Innovation Society
  1. There is a debate about whether AI will change society in a big way or just a small one. Some experts think it could be revolutionary, while others see it as an evolution of technology.
  2. Economists base their predictions about AI on how past technologies have changed society. They might not expect the rapid advances that could happen sooner than anticipated.
  3. The discussion about AI's impact raises questions about our future and how quickly we might see changes in our lives and jobs because of intelligent machines.

Top Links 641 The UK's trade deficit with the US. Low-income growth in the USA. How electrification stalled. "M: son of the century" and "The new us".

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trade Economics Deficits Income Growth
  1. The UK has a unique trade relationship where it imports more from the US than it exports, leading to a trade deficit. This is unusual for a developed country.
  2. Low-income growth in the USA is a significant issue, highlighting economic challenges faced by many. It's affecting overall prosperity and living standards.
  3. Electrification efforts have hit a roadblock, indicating that progress in energy transition is not happening as fast as needed. This could impact future sustainability initiatives.

How Silicon Valley got rich

The Novelleist • 521 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💼 Business Economics Entrepreneurship Investing Corporate Governance Wealth Inequality
  1. The rise of Silicon Valley demonstrated how entrepreneurship and venture capital can change the economy. A group of engineers creating a new tech company set the stage for tech innovation and entrepreneurship in the region.
  2. Employee equity programs allowed many workers to gain a stake in the companies they helped build, leading to wealth creation among employees. However, there is a growing inequality, where top executives earn much more than regular workers.
  3. For a fairer economy, we need to increase employee ownership in companies. This could help reduce wealth inequality and provide more opportunities for workers to benefit from their contributions.

On the OpenAI Economic Blueprint

Don't Worry About the Vase • 2732 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Economics Regulation Security
  1. OpenAI's Economic Blueprint emphasizes the need for collaboration between AI companies and the government to share resources and set standards. This can help ensure AI development benefits everyone.
  2. There are various proposals to make AI safer and more helpful, like creating better training for AI developers and working with law enforcement to prevent misuse of technology.
  3. The document also reveals a strong desire from OpenAI to avoid strict regulations on their practices, while seeking more government funding and support for their initiatives.

How to Defend Cash in under 5 Minutes

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 637 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Currency Economics Digital Payments Monetary Policy
  1. Cash is important to protect against digital payment surveillance and control. Transitioning to a fully cashless society can lead to loss of personal freedom and privacy.
  2. Instead of arguing against the convenience of digital payments, it might be better to present a new perspective on why cash is valuable. Analogies can help get the message across more easily.
  3. Educating others about the risks of a cashless society takes practice. Finding quick, relatable ways to share your views can be more effective than trying to challenge established beliefs directly.

It's Still Easier To Imagine The End Of The World Than The End Of Capitalism

Astral Codex Ten • 23813 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Inequality Capitalism Technology Wealth
  1. After the Singularity, wealth inequality might stay the same because AI will handle all labor. Everyone will earn similar returns on their investments, leading to a static distribution of wealth.
  2. Future wealth distribution could get more complicated with the birth of many descendants from rich individuals. This means those born into wealth might always have the advantage, creating a new kind of inequality over generations.
  3. To prevent extreme inequality, we might need government intervention or new ideas like wealth taxes to ensure that wealth is shared more fairly in a post-Singularity society.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 19 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Monetary Policy Consumer spending Elections
  1. The economy seems stable and strong, with good consumer spending and low delinquency rates. People are feeling positive about their finances.
  2. Optimism in businesses is growing, especially with recent changes in interest rates. However, for more demand, companies want more rate cuts and easier lending conditions.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is important for the economy. The new president will influence economic policies that could affect the markets for years to come.

Top Links 635 The rebalancing of global industrial production. A hog-cycle in containers. Czech reserves & Korean coups (in 1979)

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💼 Business Global Economy Trade Economics Geopolitics
  1. Global industrial production is shifting. This means how and where things are made around the world is changing.
  2. There is a trend called a 'hog-cycle' in container shipping. This affects how goods are transported and the availability of containers.
  3. Historical events, like the Czech reserves and Korean coups in 1979, can help us understand current global shifts and economic patterns.

How Biden Screwed the Steelworkers

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2833 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Labor Economics National Security
  1. Biden blocked Nippon Steel's $14.9 million purchase of U.S. Steel, claiming it was for national security reasons. This decision upset many steelworkers who supported the deal.
  2. While Biden aimed to keep the steel industry American-owned, his action might actually harm the industry and cost jobs.
  3. The motivation behind blocking the sale seems to blend political strategy with a nostalgic view of unions, but it risks hurting union workers and the local economy.

‘I Don’t Think My Business Can Survive These Tariffs’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 635 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💼 Business Trade Tariffs Small business Economics International Trade
  1. Many small businesses in Canada are struggling due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S., especially under Trump's trade policies. This means they might face serious financial challenges unless these tariffs are lifted.
  2. Darrin Smith, who runs a successful woodworking tools company, is worried that the 25% tariffs will threaten the survival of his business. He relies heavily on sales to the U.S.
  3. The tariffs were created to address issues like illegal immigration and drug smuggling, but the actual impact on businesses could be quite damaging, raising concerns about the broader economy.

Against the Factory Farming of Creativity

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 1544 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Art Creativity Technology Society Economics
  1. The rise of AI in creativity can make it hard to trust what's real. Many people now question if an artwork or a piece of writing is made by a human or a machine.
  2. Generative AI systems often simply copy styles instead of creating unique works. This can dilute the personal stories and emotions behind the art, making it feel less authentic.
  3. There’s a growing push for an 'AI-Free' label, similar to fair trade, to signify work that comes from genuine human creativity instead of machine-generated content.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #34

Faster, Please! • 639 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Energy Market research Automation Economics
  1. A new tool in ChatGPT can help with deep research by quickly analyzing information and providing organized reports. This makes it easier for people in schools and businesses to get useful insights.
  2. France is benefiting from its strong nuclear energy production, which keeps electricity prices lower compared to Germany. This helps France avoid the high costs associated with gas and coal.
  3. The push for cleaner energy is gaining speed, as countries like France are moving away from expensive fossil fuels. This shift is important for both economic stability and environmental health.

Projects don't pencil.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Real Estate Market Trends Finance Investment
  1. When projects don't pencil, it can relate to high costs or other factors, but it doesn't always explain the larger market trends clearly. Builders often focus too narrowly on costs without considering broader economic influences.
  2. There's a constant shift in the number of projects that pencil versus those that don't, depending on market conditions. Just because many projects aren't penciling doesn't mean that new projects won't be started; it can often indicate changing circumstances.
  3. Understanding why projects aren't penciling is complex. Costs, demand, and other factors all play a role, but it's important to avoid oversimplifying the reasons behind these changes.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investments Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

Disinflation is here: But it's not the kind we want!

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Policy
  1. Disinflation means prices are rising more slowly, but that doesn't always mean good news. If people aren't spending because they can't afford things, it can signal trouble in the economy.
  2. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in response to disinflation to try and encourage spending, but this might just be a way to show they are doing something without fixing the deeper issues.
  3. Sticky prices and disinflation can show that people are struggling financially. For a healthy economy, we need wages to rise so people can spend more, rather than just seeing temporary price drops.

Top Links 634 Amerikanizm, tariffs and inflation. The UK's productivity stagnation, & the war-risk business.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Trade Inflation Productivity Geopolitics
  1. Amerikanizm can have impacts on tariffs and inflation. This means policies can affect prices and trade in significant ways.
  2. The UK's productivity is not improving much, which suggests challenges in its economy. This stagnation can lead to slower growth and less innovation.
  3. There are increasing risks related to war for businesses. Companies might face uncertainties that could influence their operations and profits.