The hottest Investing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

"I Expect A Crash": Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. A big market crash is expected, but policymakers will keep injecting liquidity to prop up asset prices, so strategies that benefit from those liquidity pulses can still do well.
  2. Focus on transactional and croupier businesses—brokers, exchanges and other market intermediaries—because they profit from asset-bubble activity and the migration of wealthy capital.
  3. Favor precious metals and select emerging markets while avoiding many real-economy and tech bets, since policy appears aimed at maximizing asset values rather than broad economic prosperity.

Problems in Chinatown

The Bear Cave • 583 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Chinese stock scams have targeted U.S. investors for years, leading to huge financial losses. These scams often involve boosting the value of fake companies before selling off shares at a profit.
  2. The FBI has reported a big increase in complaints about stock fraud in 2025, showing more people are getting tricked. Scammers use social media and WhatsApp to lure people into investing in fake stocks.
  3. Even after a stock crashes, scammers impersonate authorities like the SEC to exploit victims further. They promise to help people recover losses but just end up scamming them again.

Top Links 827 Liquid gold. Anti-vax in America. Baltic bloom & The Fable of the Bees.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 12 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Gold is a very liquid asset, which means it can be easily bought and sold. This makes it a popular choice for investors.
  2. There is a significant focus on anti-vaccine sentiments in America, indicating a divide in public opinion about vaccines.
  3. The concept of the 'Baltic bloom' and the story of 'The Fable of the Bees' are important topics worth exploring to understand economic and social themes.

The Profile: The $18 billion AI unicorn & the 2024 Super Bowl halftime show performer

The Profile • 793 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Investing
  1. The Profile newsletter features interviews with notable figures like Taylor Tomlinson, Usher, and Naomi Osaka.
  2. Taylor Tomlinson, a rising comedian, is experiencing great professional success but questions its impact on her personal life.
  3. Usher is preparing for the 2024 Super Bowl halftime show while juggling various aspects of his life such as therapy, meditation, parenting, and career.
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Split the Bitcoin Baby

DeFi Education • 1199 implied HN points • 27 Sep 23
đź”® Crypto Investing
  1. Bitcoin halving happens every four years, cutting miners' rewards in half. This can make mining less profitable for some, but it might also lead to higher Bitcoin prices in the future.
  2. Historically, each Bitcoin halving has led to a price increase, as fewer new Bitcoins are created and demand usually stays the same or increases. This basic economic principle suggests prices could go up when supply decreases.
  3. Several factors, like investor trust and regulatory changes, affect how the next halving might impact Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Positive developments could lead to a crypto boom.

Three Years of Investment Talk

Investment Talk • 1198 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
đź’Ľ Business Investing
  1. Consistent writing forces you to learn and create tangible output from your research.
  2. Network effects are powerful in growing audience; focus on maximizing them.
  3. Be genuine, give more than you expect back, and connect with readers authentically.

My new book “Cyber for Builders" is now available on Amazon

Venture in Security • 707 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Investing
  1. The book 'Cyber for Builders' is a comprehensive guide for building a cybersecurity startup.
  2. The book covers various aspects of cybersecurity industry including key players, trends, and essential insights for early-stage founders.
  3. The book has received praise from industry experts for its practical advice and guidance for navigating the complexities of building a cybersecurity company.

The Netflix Identity Crisis

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Netflix’s fundamentals look very strong: revenue has climbed from about $20B to $45B, operating income surged to roughly $13B, and free cash flow turned positive near $9B.
  2. Despite those gains the stock is about 36% below its 52-week high and trades near $85, which suggests a disconnect between price and business performance.
  3. Investors remain cautious and are holding off buying for now; many want a lower share price or a clearer catalyst before committing.

The Economy Enters the D-Zone

The Informationist • 1179 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Rising interest rates may lead to debt defaults as borrowing costs increase
  2. Tripping covenants signal liquidity problems at companies and can lead to defaults
  3. Higher default rates could indicate an economic downturn and the need for careful portfolio management

Airdrop Farming Opportunity (Closes Soon!)

DeFi Education • 539 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
đź”® Crypto Investing
  1. There's a new chance to participate in an airdrop farming opportunity, but it's ending soon. Don't miss out if you're interested!
  2. A snapshot has already been taken, which means important data has been collected for this opportunity. Make sure you've completed any necessary actions by now.
  3. This information is for people who pay for a subscription. If you're not a subscriber, you may need to sign up to access all the details.

This Year's Buffettisms

Investment Talk • 1159 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Berkshire Hathaway's annual return of 19.8% since 1965 beats the S&P 500's 9.9% performance.
  2. Annual shareholder letters from Berkshire contain helpful Buffettisms and market insights.
  3. Buffett emphasizes meaningful investments in businesses with favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers.

Tesla & Netflix Earnings Reviews

Stock Market Nerd • 628 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Tesla missed revenue estimates and faces challenges with demand and margins
  2. Netflix exceeded revenue estimates and subscriber growth while focusing on ad-supported content and gaming
  3. Both companies have strong cash positions but face uncertainties in the future due to industry trends and market conditions

March Madness

Buggy Humans in a Messy World • 1159 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Ignore macro and 'experts', stick to your own investment process
  2. Focus on understanding the intrinsic value of businesses you invest in
  3. Maintain a margin of safety by choosing resilient businesses, act based on price not time

Weekend Thoughts: Coinbase $COIN

Yet Another Value Blog • 1159 implied HN points • 19 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Coinbase is facing serious challenges posed by an SEC suit that could potentially put the company out of business.
  2. The primary defense of Coinbase against the SEC is the hope that Congress will change laws to save them, but this could lead to increased competition and challenges for the company.
  3. Even if Congress were to change laws to make crypto trading legal, it could have negative consequences for Coinbase's business by opening the door to strong competition and impacting its unique revenue streams.

Post "Sell The News" Market Update

DeFi Education • 639 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Selling Bitcoin soon after a major news event might be smart, as prices often peak at these moments. It's a common strategy to buy when news is expected and sell when it's delivered.
  2. Consider converting your Bitcoin into dollars or stablecoins if you anticipate a price drop. That's a way to secure your profits.
  3. Keep an eye on market updates and predictions, as they can help inform your trading decisions. Staying informed is crucial in the fast-moving crypto space.

Invisible, yet Invaluable: Valuing Intangibles - The Birkenstock IPO

Musings on Markets • 1139 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
đź’Ľ Business Investing
  1. Intangible assets, like brand names and management quality, are really important for a company's value but are often overlooked in accounting. Companies today get much of their worth from things you can't physically see.
  2. The way we value companies has changed a lot, especially with tech firms now leading the market. Investors need to think about future potential instead of just past performance, especially for newer companies.
  3. Birkenstock's upcoming IPO highlights how a strong brand and a loyal celebrity customer base can boost a company's value. The success of its stocks may depend not just on numbers but also on how the market feels at the moment.

What if the Dollar Falls?

cryptoeconomy • 1139 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. The US Dollar losing its global reserve currency status would be catastrophic for the American economy.
  2. A collapsing US Dollar could lead to double-digit inflation and impact Americans' daily lives.
  3. Foreigners selling off dollar-denominated assets could trigger mass bankruptcies and economic turmoil.

Ledger Hacked & Is BTC ETF Approval "Sell The News?"

DeFi Education • 799 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
đź”® Crypto Investing
  1. The Ledger hack shows the risks involved with crypto and the importance of securing your assets. If you own a Ledger, it’s crucial to understand what to do next.
  2. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs might affect the market in significant ways, leading to potential buying or selling trends. Investors should keep an eye on how this news unfolds.
  3. There's a growing trend of risky on-chain investment funds, sometimes called Gambling-As-A-Service. People need to be cautious when engaging in these high-risk investments.

Investing 101

Investing 101 • 59 implied HN points • 03 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Investing
  1. Build a compounding engine of reading, research, writing, and investing that converts broad exposure to ideas into concrete actions and bets.
  2. Adopt concrete daily and weekly habits to feed that engine — aim for steady reading across categories, a nightly short story/poem/essay routine, and weekly micro essays to capture emerging ideas.
  3. Make investing an explicit output of the process by widening conversational reach, documenting thinking in an investing journal, and publishing portfolio updates, Requests for Startups, and idea notes to strengthen conviction.

This Is What It Looks Like When Shit Hits The Fan

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 105 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. A major financier walking away from a $10bn Oracle data‑centre deal signals that the economics of hyperscale AI build‑outs are getting harder to justify and the margin for error is shrinking.
  2. The AI infrastructure boom is increasingly debt‑ and leverage‑driven rather than self‑funded, with rising credit spreads and tighter lender terms suggesting cash flow may not cover the planned capex.
  3. That kind of pullback can rapidly shift market psychology from complacency to risk reduction, making a leverage‑heavy, high‑capex setup fragile and prone to a sudden unraveling.

Precious metals investing - a beginner's guide

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 319 implied HN points • 11 Apr 24
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Precious metals like gold and silver are valuable because they can hold their worth over time. People often invest in them as a safe way to protect against things like inflation and market changes.
  2. There are several easy ways to invest in precious metals, including buying physical bullion, using storage services, or buying shares in metal-focused ETFs and companies.
  3. There's a debate about whether gold or Bitcoin is a better store of value. Gold is physical and trusted by central banks, while Bitcoin is a digital asset with the potential for growth.

On Track

Invariant • 609 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Analyzing investments should involve a holistic reflection and critical thinking.
  2. Consider the importance of probability and odds in decision-making.
  3. Recognize that in financial markets, competition influences opportunity and the importance of value over price.

If I Had To Buy 4 Stocks Monday Morning...

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. A curated 26-stock portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by about 5% on an equal-weighted basis, which suggests the selection process is working.
  2. If forced to buy only four stocks, the approach would be three familiar names plus one new small position added recently.
  3. The four picks are chosen across different risk profiles and narratives to blend pessimism, durability, and long-term optionality.

Warner Bros.: How 5 Mental Models Turned Lonely Conviction into a Big Win

Behavioral Value Investor • 104 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Use several mental models together instead of relying on intrinsic value alone. When ideas like "good business vs bad business," potential vs kinetic energy, and auction dynamics line up, they can reveal big opportunities.
  2. Focus on unique assets and how they can be better monetized or separated from weak parts of the business. Actions like spin-offs, stronger IP monetization, or strategic interest from acquirers can turn hidden value into real gains.
  3. Use long-dated options selectively and size positions to get asymmetric payoffs while managing time risk. Also keep in mind that competitive auctions or strategic bidders can push prices far above standalone intrinsic value, so lock in gains when it makes sense.

The Bear Cave #281

The Bear Cave • 559 implied HN points • 06 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Investing
  1. Eutelsat Communications is facing challenges as it falls behind competitors like Starlink. A report suggests that its stock might drop significantly due to these problems and high debt.
  2. Several high-level resignations in companies like Krispy Kreme and Children's Place indicate instability in their management. Frequent changes in leadership can raise concerns about a company's performance.
  3. AI is changing the advertising world, making it tougher for agencies to keep up. As businesses turn to AI for creative solutions, traditional ad agencies might see low growth and reduced income.

The Great Rebalancing

Concoda • 513 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. The U.S. Treasury is focusing on making the bond market stable instead of pushing political goals. This means they might hold back on issuing long-term debt for a while.
  2. Many global investors are interested in buying short-term U.S. debt, which is seen as safer. The demand is so high that the U.S. Federal Reserve may start purchasing more to keep the market in balance.
  3. There are ongoing changes in how the Federal Reserve manages its assets, which could affect interest rates and availability of cash in the banking system.

Banks banks banks (redux)

Yet Another Value Blog • 1022 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. If you're looking at banks below tangible book value, you don't need to worry much about hidden disasters on their balance sheets.
  2. Even though there are concerns like a potential commercial real estate crisis or a recession, banks seem well-prepared and overcapitalized.
  3. Rising interest rates could actually make banks more profitable due to their interest rate sensitivity.

The Case For A 30% Market Crash

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Markets are extremely overvalued and both stocks and bonds are heavily over-owned, making prices fragile and prone to a large correction.
  2. Weak consumer demand, speculative AI capex, rising tariffs, and a Fed tolerant of higher inflation together threaten profit margins and could force P/E multiples significantly lower.
  3. If multiples revert to more normal levels (around 17x), the S&P could drop over 30% even without an earnings decline, and a falling 'E' would make the crash much worse.

"Chaos" Is Coming In 2026, Says Gold Guru Who Returned 174% In 2025

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 38 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Gold and silver rallied sharply in 2025, and precious metals miners massively outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq as investors rotated away from frothy tech stocks toward hard assets.
  2. Silver experienced a real supply shortage and heavy delivery demand in the paper futures market, highlighting a tight physical market that pushed prices higher.
  3. The Federal Reserve resumed big balance-sheet expansion in December 2025, renewing liquidity and debt concerns that are boosting demand for gold and could lead to market turbulence in 2026.

Missionaries vs. Mercenaries

DeFi Education • 859 implied HN points • 22 Nov 23
đź”® Crypto Investing
  1. Crypto is a mix of two types of people: missionaries, who believe in its mission, and mercenaries, who seek profit. Both play important roles in shaping the market.
  2. Binance's CEO, CZ, is an example of someone who started looking for profit but grew to value the cryptocurrency mission. His journey shows how these roles can change over time.
  3. The recent settlement with U.S. regulators could signal a shift towards more oversight in crypto, which might make it safer and attract institutional investors, but it could also limit the freedom that originally attracted many to the industry.

Problems at Hindenburg Research

The Bear Cave • 1982 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
đź’Ľ Business Investing
  1. Hindenburg Research has been accused of copying or closely mirroring reports made by The Bear Cave without giving credit. This includes similar wording and findings in their investigations.
  2. The Bear Cave has done extensive work on issues such as safety and child abuse on platforms like Roblox, which Hindenburg has also reported on without mentioning The Bear Cave's previous contributions.
  3. There are growing concerns about the ethics of Hindenburg's reporting practices, as many see it as taking credit for others' research without acknowledgment.

Serial Acquirers, The Art of Not Selling, and Chuck Akre's Masterclass

Investment Talk • 569 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. The post discusses the experience of heading to the USA for the first time and shares insights on a small cap company in the UK.
  2. An in-depth study on serial acquirers highlights the importance of CEOs with strong capital allocation skills.
  3. The paper 'The Art of Not Selling' by Chris Cerrone emphasizes the importance of patient and strategic investing decisions over succumbing to external pressures.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 29 Jul 24
đź’° Finance Investing
  1. Tech stocks have faced some tough times lately, with a drop in the NASDAQ 100. Investors are cautious and waiting to see how major companies perform in their earnings reports.
  2. During election years, financial and tech stocks typically do well, showing good returns. This trend is backed by past market behaviors where these sectors get investor attention.
  3. Investing in copper appears shaky right now due to issues in China’s property market, but experts still believe in its long-term potential, especially linked to renewable energy needs.