The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

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C-Span Washington Journal

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. A guest discussed the 2026 housing market outlook on C-SPAN Washington Journal.
  2. The conversation covered basics about where the housing market is headed and the key factors that led us here.
  3. The roughly 45-minute segment included live caller questions and a link to watch the full discussion.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Active housing inventory has risen sharply — active listings are up about 12% year‑over‑year and this marks many consecutive months of inventory gains, bringing supply closer to pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Existing‑home sales fell in 2025 to the lowest level since 1995, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
  3. The new‑home market is disappointing: builders are carrying many completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete with increased existing‑home inventory.

Ten favorites from 2025

The Works in Progress Newsletter • 42 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Political choices and regulations shape big technological and infrastructural outcomes. Decisions about ownership, siting, and industrial policy often determine whether projects like power plants, aircraft firms, or urban housing succeed.
  2. Small regulatory and technical changes can unlock large health and market gains. Faster approval pathways, scalable biological technologies, and better competition metrics can bring treatments to more people and help regulators act effectively.
  3. Geography and collective action drive economic power and vulnerability. Who controls resources or how land is owned and reorganized affects trade, development, and security, and tools like land readjustment or desalination can reduce holdouts and dependencies.

Shades of 2008?

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. The commercial real estate market is facing challenges due to decreased demand for office and retail spaces, leading to increased vacancy rates.
  2. Approximately $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt in the US is set to mature within the next two years, posing risks for banks and investors.
  3. There are concerns of a commercial real estate crisis resembling the 2008 financial crisis, with warning signs evident in the US, Europe, and Asia.

THE STATE OF THE NATION’S HOUSING 2025

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 316 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. Many people are struggling to buy homes because prices and mortgage rates are high. This is making it harder for younger or less wealthy families to enter the housing market.
  2. Rents are rising quickly, which is also driving home prices up. There are not enough affordable rental units, pushing more people into hardship.
  3. Household formation is slowing down as fewer new homes are being built. There is still a significant demand for housing, and many people are waiting for the right homes to become available.
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2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. December existing home sales look mostly unchanged year‑over‑year, and 2025 may end up as one of the weakest sales years since 1995.
  2. Inventory and listing trends are mixed: new listings were down about 4.5% year‑over‑year while active inventory was up roughly 9–10% YoY, with both measures still differing from 2019 levels.
  3. December closings mainly reflect contracts signed in October and November when mortgage rates averaged about 6.25%, and working‑day/seasonal adjustments can noticeably change the reported year‑over‑year results.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 282 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. In June, home sales increased slightly by 0.9% compared to the same month last year, which is a good sign after previous declines.
  2. There were more new home listings this June, showing an increase of 7.7% year-over-year, but still lower than the activity in 2019.
  3. Inventory levels rose significantly by 39.3% year-over-year, indicating that more homes are available for buyers now compared to last year.

Announcing LiveNearFriends

Supernuclear • 759 implied HN points • 04 Aug 23
đź•ą Technology Real Estate
  1. Living near friends can make you happier by 50%, according to a Harvard study
  2. LiveNearFriends helps you find homes within a 5-minute walk of friends or family
  3. The ideal social distance for happy relationships is a 5-minute walk, making interactions easy and convenient

Notes on Erdmann Metro Area Housing Estimates: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. The housing market has seen a rise in scarcity premiums, meaning the land under homes has become more expensive due to a lack of housing. This affects how valuable land is in different cities.
  2. Real estate development can be risky due to various market conditions, but areas with higher scarcity premiums may offer better investment opportunities in the long run.
  3. Understanding the trends in housing prices, rents, and scarcity can help local policymakers and developers make better decisions for their communities.

7 Charts Show the Housing Tipping Point Has Arrived

The New Urban Order • 199 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. There is a significant increase in multifamily housing supply, signaling a potential tipping point in the housing industry.
  2. Cities like Minneapolis that have increased housing supply are seeing a decrease in rent prices, showcasing the impact of supply and demand in the housing market.
  3. The increase in housing supply across the U.S. is leading to declines in rent prices in many major markets, demonstrating the effectiveness of increasing supply to address housing affordability.

What will 2026 bring?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Metro-area analyses act as 'all else equal' forecasts, so they project outcomes assuming other factors don’t change while still needing to account for many variables.
  2. A near-zero 2025 home-price forecast (about 0.1%) matched the observed change in the Zillow Home Value Index, showing that small, precise forecasts can be accurate.
  3. The outlook for 2026 calls for roughly 3% home-price appreciation, even though expert forecasts for 2025 varied widely from about -2% to 10.8%.

NMHC on Apartments: "Lower rent growth and higher vacancies" in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. The Market Tightness Index is 32, well below the breakeven 50, which signals looser market conditions and points to lower rent growth and higher apartment vacancies.
  2. Sales activity has slowed — the Sales Volume Index dropped to 47, indicating a pullback in deal flow even though many respondents saw little change quarter-to-quarter.
  3. Financing is more available: the Debt Financing Index is 75 and the Equity Financing Index is 53, reflecting improved borrowing and capital availability after a modest decline in long-term yields.

Urban Paradise Lost?: The History of Seoul's Only Planned City

S(ubstack)-Bahn • 301 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Wirye New Town is a planned city in Seoul that looks great on the outside, with tall buildings and parks, but residents are unhappy due to missing public transport. They have protested and even sued the government over these transportation issues.
  2. Housing prices in Wirye spiked quickly, but now many homeowners feel anxious as prices have dropped significantly. The reliance on real estate for wealth in South Korea adds to their stress during this market instability.
  3. The city’s complex administrative setup creates confusion for residents, as the differing regulations lead to issues with services and community life. This mixed governance makes it hard for residents to get the help they need.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Reports are being released earlier, which shrinks the early sample used for forecasts and raises the chance of bigger revisions; recent winter storms also delayed some closings and could make January sales look weaker than they really were.
  2. In the local markets that have reported, closed sales are down noticeably year‑over‑year (around -5.6% NSA), so seasonally‑adjusted national sales for January are more likely to be flat or slightly down instead of a strong gain.
  3. New listings are modestly down (~1.6% YoY) while active inventory is up (~5.8% YoY), so supply is higher than a year ago but still mixed compared with pre‑pandemic 2019 levels.

China Taxi Cab Chronicles 1: Mr. Yang the Family Man

Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones • 373 implied HN points • 24 Nov 23
🎭️ Culture Real Estate
  1. Mr. Yang prioritizes saving for his daughter's future and taking care of his parents, even after buying a house.
  2. Yang and his wife sacrifice current consumption to save for long-term goals, like their daughter's education.
  3. His consumption habits have changed with age and responsibilities, focusing on family needs over personal desires.

Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. The NAR sharply revised up its November median existing-home prices—especially in the Northeast—so preliminary numbers understated recent price gains and further revisions are possible.
  2. Because the NAR released its report earlier than usual, local realtor/MLS data were limited and some sales and inventory figures (for example versus Realtor.com) look inconsistent or may reflect definitional changes.
  3. Most of the recent rise in 30‑year mortgage rates comes from a wider primary/secondary mortgage spread driven by higher GSE guarantee fees and increased servicing/origination and regulatory costs, while higher MBS yields account for only about 3 basis points of the roughly 57 bp increase.

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Asking rents are falling nationwide year-over-year and have been declining for many consecutive months according to multiple indexes.
  2. Rising supply and weak demand — driven by slower household formation, a construction surge in multifamily units, and higher vacancies — are keeping downward pressure on rents.
  3. Trends vary by type and place: single-family rents have risen modestly while multifamily and many metros show declines, with immigration policy and seasonal slowdowns also influencing demand.

July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 248 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Home prices are cooling down, with some areas seeing more significant drops. This could affect homeowners' equity and lead to financial challenges.
  2. Many people are using adjustable-rate mortgages or temporary buydown options to manage monthly payments. While this can help now, it may create issues later when rates increase.
  3. Student loan debts are becoming a bigger problem for homeowners, increasing the risk of them falling behind on mortgage payments. Almost 30% of FHA borrowers also have student loans, and those struggling with student debt are more likely to have mortgage issues.

Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Home sales are about 24% lower than pre-pandemic levels, showing a significant slowdown. This means people are buying fewer homes than before the pandemic started.
  2. The number of homes available for sale is increasing, which might lead to price drops in some areas later. More listings and higher inventory could mean better deals for buyers.
  3. Next month's sales might be steady due to lower mortgage rates, but comparisons to last year will be tricky because sales were already low. It's a mixed bag for the housing market ahead.

Nevada SB391

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. A new bill in Nevada aims to limit real estate investors to buying fewer than 100 homes each year, but it lost by just one vote. Supporters worry this could create problems in housing supply and lead to higher rents.
  2. There is a severe housing shortage in Las Vegas, with a need for over 100,000 more units. Many local residents struggle to afford homes, and limiting investments might worsen the situation.
  3. The legislation's impact could hinder future development and make it harder for builders to meet the local housing demand. Cities like Reno are doing better in creating multi-family housing, while Las Vegas struggles with meeting its needs.

Hedging Inflation with Real Assets

In My Tribe • 622 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Investing in real assets like real estate, gold, and commodities can help protect against inflation. These assets are expected to appreciate more when inflation rises.
  2. Understanding profitability is key when investing. It combines rental income, appreciation, and interest rates to determine if an investment is worth it.
  3. Inflation-indexed bonds (like i-bonds) can be a good hedge but have limits on how much you can buy. They provide some safety against inflation, even though their performance can vary.

Case Study: The Palm on Deakin

Supernuclear • 359 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Having a flexible house configuration is important for long-term sustainability.
  2. Pre-existing trust can reduce the need for strict processes in co-living situations.
  3. Legal and financial decisions have significant impacts, so do thorough research before moving forward.

Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Existing‑home sales remain weak — November's SAAR was about 4.13 million, roughly 24% below pre‑pandemic (2017–2019) levels, with year‑to‑date sales down about 0.5% and 2024 the weakest year since 1995.
  2. Supply is rising and uneven — active inventory is up about 8.8% year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic levels, though new listings are down in many markets and regional differences are large.
  3. Prices could come under pressure — the national median price is up about 1.2% year‑over‑year now. Rising inventory suggests further regional price declines and a possible national decline in 2026, and December sales look likely to be slightly lower year‑over‑year despite modestly lower mortgage rates.

ResiDay 2025

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Home prices naturally stay stable unless there's a major supply crisis. In supply-constrained markets, like big cities, families end up paying more to avoid moving away.
  2. Cities facing housing shortages have been made worse by things like a lending clampdown and recent pandemic supply issues. This has raised rents everywhere, especially in poorer neighborhoods.
  3. The current housing situation might lead to a never-ending construction boom, which could help lower prices over time. However, this will create both opportunities and challenges for investors.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. 2025 saw one of the weakest years for existing home sales since 1995 and could be the lowest year on record since then.
  2. Early December data show a small year‑over‑year rise in sales in early‑reporting markets, but new listings fell about 9.6% while active inventory climbed about 12.7%.
  3. Compared with December 2019, new listings and sales are much lower (new listings down about 28%) while inventory is much higher in most areas, and mortgage rates around 6.25% in Oct–Nov likely restrained buyer activity.

a horror story in four words

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 393 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. The concept of 'change of valuation basis' in business can indicate stress and financial strain
  2. Valuing buildings can vary depending on the purpose, whether it's for selling, lending, or immediate sale
  3. Understanding 'change of valuation basis' sheds light on liquidity, solvency, and the socially constructed nature of financial reality

Congratulations On Your New Money Pit!

Shades of Greaves • 275 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Owning a 'money pit' home comes with financial responsibilities like mortgage, property taxes, and maintenance costs.
  2. Engaging in DIY home repairs can save money but may take more time and effort than expected.
  3. Despite the challenges, owning a home allows for building relationships with neighbors and sharing experiences with other homeowners.

Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. A large wave of foreclosures is unlikely because lending standards are solid and most homeowners have substantial equity, so distressed sales shouldn’t trigger cascading price declines.
  2. Delinquencies and foreclosure activity have increased modestly year‑over‑year (30/60/90‑day delinquencies and foreclosure starts are up), but overall levels remain historically low.
  3. The recent rise is concentrated in certain loan types (notably FHA and resumed VA activity) and REO dollar values have climbed, so expect a modest uptick in foreclosures rather than a systemic crisis.

New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. New single-family home sales ran at a 737,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in October, essentially unchanged from September and about 18.7% higher than a year earlier.
  2. Supply is elevated: months of supply stayed at 7.9 months (above the normal 4–6 month range), with completed homes, units under construction, and 'not started' inventories all high and 'not started' at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is roughly 15% below its peak, mainly because the mix of homes sold shifted toward lower-priced units.

Developer rolls the dice on massive uptown casino complex

The Charlotte Ledger • 373 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. A developer plans a massive casino and hotel complex in uptown Charlotte after new gambling laws are passed
  2. A beloved business requests historic status, potentially affecting new tower developments near Morehead Street
  3. Chick-fil-A and Carvana partner to tackle traffic congestion by allowing drive-thru customers to idle in a car vending machine

Market Segmentation in Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 210 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. Many low-rent apartments are disappearing, as more new buildings are made for high rents rather than affordable options. This means that people are paying more for the same places they used to afford.
  2. Market segmentation in housing is changing. When there's a shortage of affordable homes, families in lower-income units feel pressure to pay more or move, making it hard to find stable housing.
  3. To fix housing costs, building more high-rent apartments might actually help keep people in their current homes, instead of forcing them to downgrade to cheaper places. We need more options for everyone.

What is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) lets you invest in real estate without actually owning properties. You buy shares in a company that owns and manages real estate, earning money from the profits.
  2. REITs generally pay high dividends because they are required by law to return 90% of their taxable income to shareholders. This makes them appealing for income-focused investors.
  3. Investing in REITs gives you access to commercial real estate, offers liquidity like stocks, and can diversify your investment portfolio without the hassle of property management.

Hovnanian 4Q 2025 Results

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Hovnanian reported their fourth-quarter earnings and mostly met their expectations. However, there were challenges like refinancing and losses from land sales.
  2. The stock market reacted negatively, with Hovnanian's stock falling about 20% in one day.
  3. Investors were likely disappointed due to the mixed results and the unexpected losses, which affected their confidence in the company.

"Architecture firm billings remain soft to end the year"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Architecture firm billings have been in prolonged decline, with the ABI below 50 for most of the last three years and at 48.5 in December, indicating contracting demand. Because the ABI typically leads CRE investment by 9–12 months, this points to a likely slowdown in commercial real estate investment through 2026.
  2. Multifamily residential billings are especially weak—below 50 for 41 consecutive months and at 45.5—so new multifamily starts are likely to weaken further. This sector looks more vulnerable than institutional or other commercial work.
  3. Overall construction spending is down about 1.0% year‑over‑year, with private residential down 1.3% and private nonresidential down 2.6%, while public construction is up roughly 2.1%. That split means overall construction demand remains fairly soft despite modest public spending gains.

Office Armageddon

Diane Francis • 639 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Many big city offices are empty now because a lot of people are working from home. This change is hurting banks and city budgets as tax revenues drop.
  2. Cities are losing population for the first time in decades, which is causing more vacant shops and offices. This could lead to financial trouble for local governments.
  3. Turning empty office buildings into homes could be a solution, but it’s complicated and expensive. Cities need to rethink their spaces and invest in community facilities to attract people back.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Mortgage equity withdrawal was slightly positive in Q3, meaning homeowners overall pulled out a little equity but not anywhere near the bubble-era levels.
  2. Mortgage debt rose by $108 billion in Q3 (the same as Q2), though a good share of that borrowing is for buying homes rather than tapping existing equity.
  3. Mortgage debt as a share of GDP is down to about 43.9% from its bubble peak, so most homeowners now have large equity cushions and few are in negative equity, meaning the “home ATM” is mostly closed.