The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Sales Data Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home sales in California jumped by 19.5% compared to last year, signaling a strong recovery even though overall sales remain below pre-COVID levels.
  2. The number of active home listings grew significantly, with inventory up over 20% year-over-year, which may affect house prices in the coming months.
  3. New listings have also increased slightly, but are still at historically low levels, suggesting that supply remains tight in several markets.

Letter #84: Sam Zell (1976)

A Letter a Day • 334 implied HN points • 20 May 23
💼 Business Real Estate Investing Finance Economics Entrepreneurship
  1. Sam Zell was a successful real estate mogul, starting his career in property management before building a massive real estate empire.
  2. In his 1976 essay, Zell discussed the opportunities in distressed properties, emphasizing the importance of initial investment analysis and financial restructuring.
  3. Investors in distressed properties are motivated by the potential for equity value appreciation and long-term asset value growth, despite initial cash-flow challenges.

Lights, Camera, Action!

Lewis Enterprises • 235 implied HN points • 12 Dec 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Private Equity
  1. Hudson Pacific's studio assets present an opportunity for unlocking value through deleveraging.
  2. REIT management often resists selling assets despite high valuations, impacting investment returns.
  3. Combining portfolios of West Coast-focused office REITs can benefit public markets investors, despite being unlikely to happen.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Statistics
  1. Housing starts in October dropped to 1.311 million, which is lower than both September and October of last year. This shows a continued decrease in new home construction.
  2. Single-family housing starts also fell by about 6.9% compared to the previous month, suggesting potential challenges in the market for individual homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts saw a trend of weakness over the past year, indicating it may be harder to get those types of buildings underway, while single-family starts have been improving recently.
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Hotel REITs

Warden Capital • 275 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Economics Markets Business
  1. Hotel REITs in the public markets have high yields and are trading at 8-10+% cap rates, making them a potentially lucrative investment option.
  2. Compared to other real estate asset classes like multifamily and industrial, hotel REITs offer superior yields and lower capex burdens, making them a cost-effective choice for investors.
  3. The hotel industry has faced challenges post-COVID, especially in urban markets, but with the recovery of leisure, group, and business travel, there is significant potential for growth and investment opportunities.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. In November, home sales increased by 17% compared to last year. This is a good sign, but sales are still lower than what they were a few years ago.
  2. There was a big jump in active home listings, with inventory up almost 25% year-over-year. This increase is crucial for keeping house prices stable during the winter months.
  3. New listings are rising slightly, but remain low when compared to past years. This means fewer homes are being put on the market, even though some areas are seeing more options.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic data Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same when compared to last year, with a slight overall decrease of about 0.6%. This means rental prices are not rising much.
  2. The rental market is seeing more available apartments due to a lot of new construction, which keeps prices low. The vacancy rate is the highest it's been since the pandemic began.
  3. Single-family home rents have increased by about 2% year-over-year but are still below pre-pandemic growth levels. Many areas are seeing slower rent growth, which is good news for renters.

Trends in Buenos Aires Real Estate

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 157 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Property Management Construction
  1. Average prices for apartments in Buenos Aires vary by neighborhood, with popular areas like Palermo and Recoleta having higher prices.
  2. Neighborhoods in the northern corridor of the city have average prices around $3,000/m2, while other areas like Villa Crespo offer good value below Palermo pricing.
  3. Investing in new developments in Buenos Aires' real estate market can be more attractive due to lower construction costs despite a devaluation in the currency.

Why Companies are Turning on Remote Work [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 139 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
💼 Business Remote work Finance Productivity Real Estate Management
  1. The remote work vs in-person debate is becoming more divisive with many companies now choosing to return to in-person work.
  2. Financial reasons such as increased turnover due to layoffs, real estate investments, and management preferences are driving companies to push for in-person work.
  3. Despite the preference for traditional office culture, studies show remote work can be just as productive, inclusive, and even boost creativity and performance.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Home Prices
  1. Existing home sales increased in October, marking the first year-over-year gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Sales were estimated to be at an annual rate of 3.97 million, which is a 3.4% increase from September. This shows a gradual recovery in home buying activity.
  3. The increase in home sales could indicate a shift in the market, possibly making it a better time for buyers and sellers to engage in real estate transactions.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Commodities Real Estate Investment Strategies
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.4% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that while prices have gone up, they haven't reached their highest point when you factor in inflation.
  2. In nominal terms, house prices are at all-time highs, but the real value shows a different picture. This is important because it reflects the actual purchasing power of money over time.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is 8.1% below its peak in 2022, suggesting that buying homes might be getting less attractive compared to renting in the current market.

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity in German Residential Real Estate Stocks

Modern Value Investing • 294 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Stocks Market Analysis Interest Rates
  1. German residential real estate stocks offer 200% upside based on their NAV
  2. Potential for German residential real estate stocks to re-establish dividends at 3-4%, translating to a 200% near term upside
  3. Investing in German residential real estate offers a long-term opportunity with potential returns of 5-6x over 10 years

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Data Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up 3.7% compared to last year, showing a steady increase in home prices.
  2. Florida has many cities experiencing large price declines, with 18 out of the top 35 cities affected.
  3. If more houses are available for sale and sales remain low, we might see a slowdown in home price growth early next year.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales trends Mortgage Rates
  1. In November, home sales increased by 5.8% compared to last year, showing a positive trend in the housing market. This is the second year in a row that sales have gone up after a long period of decline.
  2. Active inventory of homes for sale rose by 26% year-over-year, which is good for buyers, but there are still sharp differences based on the region. Areas like Florida and Texas saw significant increases in available homes.
  3. Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in two years, averaging between 6.18% and 6.43% in September and October. However, recent increases in rates, now close to 7%, might slow down future sales.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Data Local Economy Real Estate
  1. Local housing markets in October showed the first year-over-year sales gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for home sales.
  2. The analysis includes over 40 local markets, comparing current data to October 2019. This helps understand how the market has changed over time.
  3. Active listings, new listings, and closed sales are being tracked, giving a clearer picture of the housing market's performance.

Top Links 373 Ordeal by Roses, US bank worries, Gazprom's losses, misfiring missiles & Bismarck's legacy

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
💰 Finance Banks Real Estate Investment
  1. Top Links 373 include the Ordeal by Roses photos, US bank concerns, Gazprom's losses, misfiring missiles, and Bismarck's legacy.
  2. US banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have seen a decrease in reserves for commercial real estate debt.
  3. This post is available for paid subscribers and includes insights on various topics related to finance and geopolitics.

China Crumbles

The Dollar Endgame • 199 implied HN points • 16 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics China Economy Debt Real Estate Banks
  1. China's real estate market is facing significant challenges, with existing home prices dropping and outstanding property loans declining.
  2. Major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden are struggling with debt obligations and bankruptcy proceedings.
  3. Moody's downgrade of China's credit outlook indicates that the turmoil in the real estate sector is starting to impact the broader economy and banks.

Make Office Buildings Fun Again

The New Urban Order • 279 implied HN points • 09 Oct 23
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Urban Development Social Trends Innovation
  1. Converting office buildings into co-living spaces can help address social challenges like loneliness and offer more housing options.
  2. Co-living is a shared living model that emphasizes intentional community through communal spaces and activities.
  3. Co-living has the potential to be a source of affordable housing, cater to different demographics like seniors and digital nomads, and could be aligned with co-working spaces for a more integrated urban living experience.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Indicators
  1. Serious delinquency rates for single-family homes slightly increased in September. This means a small rise in the number of homeowners who are late on their mortgage payments.
  2. Multi-family delinquency rates also went up, hitting levels not seen since 2011. This points to more challenges for those managing multiple rental units.
  3. Despite the increases, overall delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic lows. This suggests that the housing market is still stronger than it was during the worst of the pandemic.

Should Cities Buy Office Buildings?

The New Urban Order • 119 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Investment Government Urban Development Economics
  1. Experienced investors are seizing the opportunity to acquire distressed office buildings due to significant investment momentum and low prices.
  2. Cities are offering incentives like tax abatements and low-interest loans to encourage the purchase and conversion of office buildings into residential spaces.
  3. Cities could benefit by investing in distressed office buildings themselves to shape the future of their urban landscapes and prevent missed opportunities, similar to what happened after the Great Financial Crisis.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Delinquency Banking Housing
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates showed a slight increase in October, marking 0.55% for Freddie Mac and 0.52% for Fannie Mae. This is still lower than delinquency rates before the pandemic.
  2. Multi-family serious delinquency rates also rose, with Fannie Mae's rate reaching its highest since 2011, excluding pandemic data. This indicates growing challenges in the multi-family housing market.
  3. Delinquent loans are defined as being three or more payments past due or in foreclosure. Despite some increases, many recent loans from 2009 to 2023 are still faring well, indicating overall improvement in loan performance.

NBA Valuations Reach $4.4 Billion As The Focus On Real Estate Development Intensifies

Huddle Up • 34 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Real Estate Valuations Investments Sports
  1. NBA teams are now worth an average of $4.4 billion. This shows how valuable basketball franchises have become.
  2. The Golden State Warriors are the most valuable team at $8.8 billion, followed by the Knicks and Lakers. These teams are leading the pack in terms of worth.
  3. Real estate development is becoming more important for NBA teams. It seems teams are trying to boost their value through property investments.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economics Investments Mortgage Rates
  1. House prices are gradually increasing, with a 4.2% rise year-over-year noted in the Case-Shiller National Index. This suggests the housing market is still active but may slow down soon.
  2. The monthly increase in house prices has been steady, showing growth for 19 consecutive months. This indicates a long-term positive trend in the housing market.
  3. Future outlooks for house prices in 2024 are being discussed, hinting at ongoing changes and developments that could impact buyers and sellers alike.

The REIT Pain Trade

Lewis Enterprises • 216 implied HN points • 10 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate
  1. Shorting REITs vulnerable to higher rates has been a popular but unsuccessful trade this year.
  2. The post does not offer investment advice and comes from the author's interest in quantitative investing and REITs.
  3. Readers can access the full post by subscribing to Lewis Enterprises for a 7-day free trial.

No bubble, no trouble...

Japan Optimist • 235 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Policy Inflation Central Bank
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is focused on ensuring economic growth and controlling inflation.
  2. In Japan, politicians are addressing rising energy costs and affordability concerns, not the central bank.
  3. Japanese elite closely monitor real estate prices to prevent asset bubbles and ensure future generations' prospects.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 3.96 million in October, marking a 3.4% increase from September and the first yearly rise since July 2021. This shows a positive trend in the housing market.
  2. Median home prices increased by 4.0% compared to last year, which suggests that despite more inventory, homes are still getting more expensive.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale is up 19.1% compared to last year, indicating more options for buyers, although the months of supply is higher than in pre-pandemic times.

Case Study: Windhover

Supernuclear • 139 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🏝 Travel Community Real Estate Hospitality
  1. Case Study: Windhover is a community living project that started with a tiny house and expanded to include multiple dwellings and land.
  2. The founders prioritize hospitality, justice, and community living, leasing out parts of the property to small-scale farmers at subsidized rates.
  3. Transitioning from tiny house living to being landlords brought challenges of responsibility and upkeep, but also opportunities for hosting larger gatherings and accommodating family members.

In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. In the second quarter of 2024, nearly 20% of new rental units were single-family homes. This shows a growing interest in single-family rentals.
  2. The number of single-family units built-for-rent has almost doubled since 2020, indicating a trend towards more single-family developments.
  3. While multi-family rental units saw a big drop, single-family units are becoming a bigger part of the rental market, signaling a shift in housing demand.

China Teeters

The Dollar Endgame • 219 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics China Real Estate Economy
  1. China's real estate market is showing warning signals and potential financial crisis issues.
  2. The Chinese government's push for massive industrial growth led to developers taking on massive debts for unprofitable projects like 'ghost cities'.
  3. Lenders in China have authorized bad loans for real estate projects, creating a housing bubble that surpasses the 2008 financial crisis.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth cooled for the seventh consecutive month"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Market Trends Mortgage Rates
  1. Home price growth has slowed down for seven months in a row. This suggests that the housing market is cooling off.
  2. Mortgage holders currently have a lot of equity, totaling $17.2 trillion in the U.S. This equity can sometimes be tapped for additional borrowing.
  3. Recent cuts to Fed rates might encourage more homeowners to use their home equity. This could lead to an increase in home equity withdrawals by homeowners.

[Recording] How to live near friends: 6 models that work

Supernuclear • 279 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
🏝 Travel Friendship Community Real Estate
  1. The post discusses 6 models for living near friends, ranging from easy to hard like organizing a neighborhood or co-buying a vacation home.
  2. Start with something easier on the list and progressively move to harder options, but it's okay to jump into a harder model too.
  3. Lessons learned and insights are shared from experiments on living near friends by the authors with a Q&A session.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Market Analysis Economic Trends Risk Assessment
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Behavioral Finance
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to long term rise in rent inflation and decline in housing consumption.
  2. The bubble story contradicts the evidence of high housing costs being a result of economic rents, not productivity.
  3. Robert Shiller's analysis overlooks the importance of considering rent inflation in understanding housing market inefficiencies.