The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Economy Real Estate Market Trends Construction
  1. Housing starts for December were 1.499 million, which is 15.8% higher than November but 4.4% lower than December 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts rose slightly compared to November, while multi-family starts saw a drop year-over-year.
  3. Total housing starts decreased by 2.6% in 2024 compared to 2023, with single-family homes seeing a slight increase while multi-family homes declined significantly.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 19 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economics Insurance Cryptocurrency
  1. Investing in utilities could be a smart move as demand for power grows due to the rise of AI and data centers.
  2. The stock market has shown strong recent performance, with predictions of further gains this year based on solid earnings and market momentum.
  3. There's a noticeable trend in retail investors participating in meme stocks, indicating a lasting shift in how a generation approaches investing in the stock market.

Issue #140: Amazon Snaps Up Axio, Robinhood’s Crypto Push Into Spain, and Another Bank Fintech Flop

Fintech Radar • 4 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Fintech Banking Investing Payments Cryptocurrency
  1. Amazon is buying a fintech called Axio in India to strengthen its credit services. This shows Amazon's intent to dive deeper into lending rather than just partnering with others.
  2. Ramp has launched a new treasury management product, making it easier for businesses to manage their cash. This is part of a trend where companies want financial tools that integrate into their daily operations.
  3. HSBC shut down its Zing app just a year after launching it, which highlights how challenging it is for banks to successfully enter the fintech space. Just having money and a name isn't enough to succeed in this fast-paced market.
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💳 Visa & Mastercard: Priceless

How They Make Money • 628 implied HN points • 21 Feb 23
💰 Finance Payment processing
  1. Payment processing involves authorization, clearing, and settlement to ensure secure and efficient transactions.
  2. Visa and Mastercard are key players in the payment processing world, providing infrastructure and facilitating fund flow.
  3. Companies like acquirers, payment networks, issuers, gateways, and ISOs play essential roles in the payment ecosystem.

Inflation: it's "complicated"

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 628 implied HN points • 25 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Labor Market Market Power
  1. Inflation is influenced by a variety of factors such as supply disruptions, commodity prices, labor market strength, and demand for goods.
  2. The discussion around workers having the upper hand in the labor market is complex and requires consideration of inflation expectations, wage growth, and job market tightness.
  3. Inflation expectations are stable, showing that markets and consumers anticipate a return to normal inflation levels, which is crucial for combating inflation.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 16 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis Market Strategies
  1. Broadcom's stock has seen a significant increase, driven by high demand for its AI products, and investors are optimistic about its future.
  2. Experts, including AI leaders, warn that tech companies need to invest more in AI safety as competition grows, emphasizing the potential risks if AI surpasses human intelligence.
  3. The market for obesity drugs is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with major companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly leading the way, indicating a strong investment opportunity.

Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Economics Market Trends Housing
  1. Residential investment is likely to see a small increase in 2024, which is a positive shift after two years of decline.
  2. Housing starts for single-family homes are expected to remain stable, while multi-family starts may drop a bit more in 2025.
  3. New home sales are projected to rise by about 5% in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the housing market.

Infographics: The Fed's Standing Repo Facility In Action

Concoda • 216 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Banking Investing Monetary Policy Markets
  1. The Federal Reserve has a special tool called a repo facility to manage money supply in the economy. It helps banks borrow money quickly when they need it.
  2. This repo facility can provide short-term loans to banks, which helps keep the financial system stable. It's like a safety net during times of financial stress.
  3. Understanding how this facility works is important for grasping the bigger picture of economic stability and the Fed's role in it. It helps us see how money flows in the economy.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 18 Aug 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economics Financial News Market Analysis
  1. Stocks linked to housing and utilities might do well as interest rates drop. Investors are looking at companies like Lennar and Home Depot.
  2. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has recently bought shares in Ulta Beauty and Heico Corp, while also reducing its stake in Apple.
  3. Mars is buying Kellanova, which could change the snack food market by creating a stronger competitor to companies like Pepsi and Hershey.

Country Risk: A July 2023 Update

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investment Analysis Economic Factors Global Markets
  1. Country risk factors include political systems, corruption, legal protections, and violence, which all affect how safe it is to do business in different countries.
  2. Democratic countries often have continuous risks from changing governments, while authoritarian regimes can present sudden and severe risks, making it tricky for businesses to decide where to invest.
  3. Corruption adds hidden costs to businesses operating in affected regions, making it crucial for companies to understand both the visible and hidden risks in their chosen markets.

A data-driven insight into German transfer fraud: 7.594 cases

Altay's Blog • 1 HN point • 30 Sep 24
💰 Finance Fraud Banking E-commerce Scams Data Analysis
  1. Many people in Germany lose money to transfer fraud each year because scammers trick them into thinking their payments are safe. They use methods like fake online shops to steal money without delivering any products.
  2. Scammers often use tricks to hide their identities, like opening bank accounts under fake names or recruiting unsuspecting people to help. These tactics make it hard for banks to catch them right away.
  3. There are rules called Know-Your-Customer (KYC) that banks must follow to verify customer identities. When these rules are not strong, it can lead to more fraud, but better KYC practices can help reduce these scams.

2024 Predictions

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Inflation Government spending Market Analysis
  1. The Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting rates by Q2 or Q3 and possibly implement quantitative easing, based on recent signals and market predictions.
  2. There is an anticipation that the Fed will eventually restart quantitative easing due to factors like high deficits and pressure from the Monetary Black Hole, impacting financial markets and assets.
  3. Inflation is expected to return in the near future as liquidity programs kick in, fiscal deficits grow, and government spending increases, potentially leading to economic challenges and a recession.

Quadrilemma

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 373 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Federal Reserve Policy
  1. The market outlook suggests it's time to increase exposure to cyclical sectors.
  2. Understanding the market implied policy path, earnings expectations, and the Fed's reaction function is crucial for making strategic investment decisions.
  3. A healthy broadening out in the market may require certain economic conditions to be met, like unemployment rates and average hourly earnings.

October 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment
  1. Home construction costs have risen over time, but the price hikes for new homes are affected more by land costs and less by construction costs. This means that it's getting harder for average families to afford homes, as they are paying more for existing homes due to limited supply.
  2. In higher-end markets, the quality and size of new homes aren’t keeping up with rising incomes. Despite inflation, average people are struggling more because the character of new homes is changing despite high land values.
  3. The overall housing market reflects different trends for rich and average buyers. Wealthier buyers usually track new home costs, while average buyers feel the squeeze from existing home prices influenced by constrained supply.

bankruptcy for the little people

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 294 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bankruptcy Debt Legal system Corporations
  1. Bankruptcy rules differ for individuals and corporations, with implications for creditors and stakeholders.
  2. Bankruptcy can have significant economic consequences, especially for employees, suppliers, and other parties dependent on the company's operations.
  3. Some companies without operations can exploit bankruptcy laws to avoid liabilities, highlighting issues with the limited liability system.

Long Take: FDIC consent order vs. $3B banking-as-a-service champion Cross River Bank

The Fintech Blueprint • 609 implied HN points • 03 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Crypto Stablecoins Financial Crisis
  1. The FDIC is closely monitoring banking practices to ensure systemic stability during a crisis.
  2. Cross River Bank, a $3B banking-as-a-service champion, is under scrutiny and must comply with a consent order.
  3. Regulators are concerned about fintech companies entering the banking sector without proper oversight.

Investing in Energy

Doomberg • 267 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Markets Energy Economics Analysis
  1. Energy markets are influenced by fundamental rules that help predict their behavior. Understanding these rules is key to making smart investments.
  2. The energy sector is currently undergoing significant changes. It's important to stay updated on these shifts to find good investment opportunities.
  3. There are four main ways to invest in energy. Each method has different risks and rewards, so it’s crucial to evaluate them carefully before deciding.

CPI 3.1%

Points And Figures • 666 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Inflation Investing Policy Economics
  1. Inflation might be higher than reported due to isolated evidence like price increases in certain sectors.
  2. The government's policies are putting strong inflationary pressure on the economy, impacting various sectors and housing market.
  3. Business news sources may have biases and push narratives, so it's important to seek objective insights for informed decisions.

Thoughts on Inflation

America in Crisis • 139 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Government Policy Economic History
  1. The reduced-price model shows how cycles in prices correspond to inflation, especially during wartime when inflation tends to be higher due to deficit spending.
  2. The quantity theory of money explains the relationship between economic activity, money supply, and inflation, showcasing the importance of monetary factors in historical economic events.
  3. Analyzing the current inflation outlook using the money balance model highlights the potential for continued inflationary pressures and the challenges the Federal Reserve faces in managing inflation through interest rate adjustments.

Bitcoin Flows Fuel Breakout as Recession Process Continues

Bitcoin Magazine Pro • 294 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin ETFs Recession Central Bank Digital Currency
  1. Bitcoin price has been stable since December, ETF flows are positive, and impacts of macroeconomics are discussed.
  2. Bitcoin is becoming a significant force in the global economy, with nations like El Salvador and Argentina leading in Bitcoin adoption.
  3. US market approach to Bitcoin includes large ETF investments by BlackRock and Fidelity, indicating growing interest and demand.

How SP culture produces financial crisis

America in Crisis • 59 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
💰 Finance Financial Crisis Economic Growth Corporate Profits Capitalism Taxation
  1. Financial crisis can stem from a shift in profit usage from investment to financial market growth, impacting economic growth.
  2. SP culture, focusing on shareholder returns through stock buybacks and dividends, can lead to financial instability and economic downturns.
  3. Minsky's financial instability hypothesis outlines how capitalist economies can transition from safe to risky financial structures, culminating in financial crises.

ServiceTitan files to go public, Substack-o-nomics and please don't scratch my Bakkt

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Venture Capital Public Companies
  1. ServiceTitan is planning to go public, targeting a large market in the trades with software and fintech services. This shows there's strong potential for growth in this essential industry.
  2. The company has attracted significant investment from top venture capital firms, indicating confidence in its business model and future profitability.
  3. Going public will benefit not only ServiceTitan but also the investors, providing them with returns after a long wait for exits.

The Most Misleading Chart

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Economic outlook Investment Strategies
  1. A commonly shared chart about U.S. credit card debt is misleading and creates unnecessary panic. It's crucial to look at the bigger picture to understand what this number really means.
  2. Despite rising credit card debt, consumers are still confident and spending money, which is often a good sign for the economy and stock market.
  3. When you see alarming headlines about growing credit card debt, remember that it's important to consider the overall context and how it reflects consumer behavior.

Auto Partner: A Boring Business with Brilliant Results

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 539 implied HN points • 23 Nov 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Business Growth Financial Performance Investment Opportunities
  1. Auto Partner, a distributor of spare parts, is focusing on automation to strengthen its distribution capabilities and increase competitiveness.
  2. The company's revenue growth is attributed to market responsiveness, geographic expansion, and effective management of economic challenges.
  3. Auto Partner's growth strategy includes building new hubs, expanding branches, and increasing automation in warehouses and logistics to prepare for potential expansion into other verticals.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices have been steadily increasing, showing a 3.6% rise year-over-year as of October and continued growth is expected.
  2. There has been a consistent upward trend in house prices, with a 0.35% monthly increase noted, marking the 21st month of growth.
  3. The outlook for house prices in 2025 remains uncertain, with various factors influencing future changes in the housing market.

The Bear Cave #204

The Bear Cave • 1119 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Activist Reports Recent Resignations Tweets
  1. New activist reports revealed alleged financial manipulation by companies like Grifols and ethical lapses at DocGo.
  2. Multiple executive resignations were announced, including CFOs and CEOs from various companies.
  3. Notable tweets of the week were highlighted, showcasing discussions on regulatory actions and financial concerns.

The 1%

Market Sentiment • 589 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Management Asset allocation Equities Real Estate
  1. Many millionaires invest their money wisely, not just through income.
  2. The top 1% of Americans own more stocks than the other 99%, highlighting the importance of investing in equities for wealth growth.
  3. Affluent retail investors typically have a long-term risk orientation with high equity exposure and minimal panic selling tendencies.

Long Take: The craft of scaling fintechs beyond their niche -- analyzing Twitter, Bunq, and Goldman Sachs

The Fintech Blueprint • 589 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
💰 Finance Fintech Startups Market Analysis Business Growth Investments
  1. The craft of scaling fintechs involves understanding successful growth drivers and failures
  2. Successful business building requires targeting disruptive technologies to the right market with demand
  3. Goldman Sachs' exit from consumer business contrasts with neobanks like Bunq's profitability and growth in their niche