The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

🧠 Is Pay by Bank the next Payment Rail?

Fintech Brain Food 🧠 • 373 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
đź’° Finance
  1. 2024 could be the year of Pay by Bank as a new payment rail in the US, offering lower fees for merchants, especially suited for higher-value or subscription payments, and giving banks a competitive edge with open banking becoming a regulatory mandate.
  2. Pay by Bank faces challenges to compete with cards, including establishing user familiarity, faster processing times, robust consumer protections, and creating repeat use incentives.
  3. Lessons from the success of cards, the necessity for consistent branding, merchant adoption based on conversion rather than just cost, integration of fraud protection, and leveraging data for loyalty incentives.

[2025–2026] Week 12: The Money Game by 'Adam Smith'

Behavioral Value Investor • 44 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Investing Value investing Behavioral Finance Markets Investment education Investment strategy
  1. There are many different investing styles that can succeed, so focus on the approach that fits your natural strengths and find ways to cover or mitigate your weaknesses.
  2. Human psychology and behavioral biases strongly shape market decisions, so studying past market behavior helps you recognize recurring patterns and avoid common mistakes.
  3. Active learning and community engagement—doing assigned readings, answering questions, and discussing ideas respectfully—accelerate understanding and improve practical investing skills.

Regulatory capture is real

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Regulation Valuation Investing Markets Corporate Finance Governance
  1. Strong regulation tends to lower company valuations because it raises costs, limits growth, and shields stakeholders other than shareholders.
  2. When companies influence regulators or use the revolving door to place insiders in regulatory roles, they can turn regulation into a barrier to entry that boosts incumbents’ margins and valuations.
  3. Lack of regulation can spur rapid growth but also enables widespread fraud and abuse, highlighting the trade-off between fast innovation and consumer protection.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Macroeconomics: Some Defects

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 29 May 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics Banking Economic Theory Fiscal policy Financial Sector
  1. Macroeconomics often treats the economy like a simple factory that can be controlled centrally, but the reality is much more complex with many different goods and services. It's not just about one measure like GDP.
  2. Many economics students learn about macro without understanding the important role banks play in the economy. Banks help manage risks and their crises can lead to major economic downturns.
  3. Macroeconomic theories are often presented as timeless, but they should consider historical changes and events that shape the economy. Each economic crisis is unique and influenced by different circumstances over time.

Chinese Hydropower - Large and Underappreciated

Syncretica • 648 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
đź’° Finance Energy Forecasting Economics
  1. China has the largest hydropower sector globally, with a significant impact on power generation worldwide.
  2. Hydropower output is heavily influenced by weather conditions, with recent rainfall improvements expected to boost Chinese hydropower production.
  3. The strong growth in Chinese hydropower output is likely to lead to a decrease in fossil fuel imports and a reduction in thermal power generation.

Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Risk Assessment Financial Data
  1. Interest rates are rising, affecting both stocks and bonds. This change can make it harder for investors to predict market movements.
  2. Only a few big tech companies are driving market gains, which shows the performance isn't shared evenly across all stocks. If you didn’t invest in those top companies, your returns might not be great.
  3. There are still uncertainties about inflation and the economy, making it hard to predict what will happen next. Investors continue to swing between hope and worry.

BOJ Finally Pulls the Trigger on Rate Policy, But It’s a Low-Caliber Gun

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 20 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economic Forecast Currency Exchange
  1. BOJ's interest rate policy tweak is more about changing the mechanism to keep rates low, gradually raising overnight rates from negative to low positive percentages over time.
  2. Ending Yield Curve Control means BOJ stops directly controlling long-term rates but still aims to keep them low by continuing to buy the same amount of long-term bonds.
  3. BOJ remains focused on low inflation and plans to raise interest rates if it rises too high, but for now, it sees current inflation as temporary due to global factors.

Levelling up my MMT (Part 1)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 99 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Political Economy Public Policy Governance
  1. The piece emphasizes deepening practical and conceptual understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to 'level up' how the idea is used.
  2. It reflects on the tension between technocratic, expert-driven knowledge and democratic, public-facing uses of knowledge, and why that difference matters for policy.
  3. The write-up is presented as the first part of a paid, subscriber-focused series, signalling an ongoing, deliberate exploration rather than a one-off note.

Top Links 758 Delinquent consumer debt. South Africa's unemployment crisis. Napoleon's sword and the legend of the "Black Star" pistol.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 03 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Consumer Debt Unemployment Economic Crisis International relations Historical Analysis
  1. Delinquent consumer debt in the US is on the rise, which could indicate economic issues ahead.
  2. South Africa is facing a serious unemployment crisis, highlighting challenges in its job market.
  3. There are fascinating stories about Napoleon's sword and the legend surrounding the 'Black Star' pistol that connect history and culture.

Why pessimists make more money

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Behavioral Finance Investing Markets Wealth Management Financial Media Risk management
  1. People value stories more than raw data and will pay for explanations about the economy even when they already have the forecasts.
  2. Among buyers of narratives, pessimistic stories command a higher price, so pessimists can charge more for their outlooks.
  3. Different people prefer different narratives: overconfident buyers lean toward pessimistic views, motivated reasoners seek biased (optimistic or pessimistic) stories, and those focused on accuracy choose the consensus narrative.

Top Links 757 Flipping correlations. Mapping credit scores. Saudi twitter & the secrets of the RG.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Markets Economics Investing Banking Debt
  1. Treasury yields and the value of the dollar are acting differently now, where higher yields are linked to a weaker dollar.
  2. There are interesting tools that help map and understand credit scores, which could be helpful for managing finances.
  3. Saudi Twitter is revealing some hidden information about the region, suggesting social media plays a role in public discourse.

Capture price of imports/exports in Germany

GEM Energy Analytics • 719 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Energy Market Renewable Energy
  1. Germany often exports electricity during winter and imports more in summer. This pattern is changing due to the retirement of nuclear power and other factors.
  2. The prices for exported electricity are usually low because they happen when there’s lots of renewable energy like wind or solar, which can lead to negative prices.
  3. As renewable energy grows, Germany is importing electricity when prices are high, while exporting when prices are low. This is making it hard to measure the value of electricity trades in traditional ways.

Major Signals are flashing Code Red in the Shadow Banking System

The Dollar Endgame • 718 implied HN points • 07 May 23
đź’° Finance Banking Investments Regulation Economy Markets
  1. The reverse repo figures reaching $2 trillion signal a serious issue in the market, showing strains on the entire banking system from massive liquidity injections.
  2. Reverse repos in the shadow banking system allow entities like MMFs to act like banks but without the same regulations, functioning in an opaque, complex, and risky world.
  3. The increased usage of the Fed's RRP facility and rising award rates indicate collateral shortages within the system, leading to concerns about the stability of MMFs and potential risks in the financial system.

Top Links 779 Tariffs, trade and macro balances. Taking stock of shock & Frostbite: How Refrigeration Changed our Food

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Trade policy Macroeconomics Economic Impact Food Systems Tariffs
  1. Tariffs can really hurt low-income families the most. This is because they often rely on affordable imported goods that might get more expensive.
  2. Trade balances are important to understand how countries interact economically. Keeping track of imports and exports helps to see if a country is doing well.
  3. Refrigeration has significantly changed how we handle food. It allows us to store food longer and reduce waste, making it easier to feed more people.

The AI economy is full of financial gimmicks.

The Future, Now and Then • 309 implied HN points • 05 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Economics Investment Banking Corporate Finance Market Trends
  1. The AI economy is largely filled with financial tricks and gimmicks. Many startup valuations and deals may not reflect true economic value until they produce real products or profits.
  2. Tech and finance are becoming tightly linked, and understanding this connection is essential for journalists. Just like the housing market before the crash, the AI sector has both real growth and bubble-like financial behavior.
  3. It's important to question how much of the reported economic activity in AI is genuine. Many big numbers come from transactions that may not create real wealth, blurring the lines between actual growth and financial gamesmanship.

Michael Hudson: Why the US bank crisis is not over

Geopolitical Economy Report • 717 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Banking Interest Rates
  1. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and banks can hold onto securities without marking down their assets, showing the decline only during a run on the bank.
  2. Depositors withdrew money as banks acted greedily, paying low deposit rates while making high profits, causing a shift towards more fair market returns elsewhere.
  3. The US bank crisis involves a mix of deregulatory corruption, political influence, and economic imbalance in the face of financial claims surpassing economic ability to pay.

The Art of Crypto Kayfabe

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 1076 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Investing Cryptocurrency Markets Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The investment world can be likened to a wrestling league where different assets compete for your money. Each asset has its own story or gimmick to attract investors, just like wrestlers have unique personas.
  2. Bitcoin is often seen as a rebellious fighter trying to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, but it also plays a tricky game of pretending to be both a currency and an investment asset. This duality creates confusion about its true value and purpose.
  3. Like wrestling matches, the market can be influenced by emotions and narratives. The way assets are portrayed and the stories built around them affect how people perceive their worth and make investment decisions.

3 Ways out of our "Fiscal Death Spiral."

cryptoeconomy • 707 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
đź’° Finance Debt Inflation Taxation Government spending Economy
  1. There are 3 ways to escape the fiscal crisis: reduce spending, raise taxes heavily, or resort to printing more money.
  2. The increasing debt and interest payments are approaching unsustainable levels, potentially leading to historic inflation rates.
  3. Regardless of the chosen path, the final destination seems to be inflation as the most likely outcome of the fiscal crisis.

đź’° Stock-Based Compensation Explained

How They Make Money • 707 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Investing Stocks Compensation Performance Metrics Regulatory changes
  1. Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) is a remuneration strategy where companies reward employees with equity interests.
  2. SBC affects investors through ownership dilution, alignment of interests, and impact on company performance.
  3. There are different types of SBC such as stock options, restricted stock units, and performance shares, each with unique characteristics and implications.

The Shadow Cash Market: Part II

Concoda • 270 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Market Analysis Liquidity Regulations Investment Strategies Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury market is facing challenges with liquidity, prompting officials to consider delaying issuance of long-term bonds until 2027.
  2. There's a growing trend of 'shadow cash markets' emerging as alternatives to traditional cash markets, allowing participants a means to access liquidity that is influenced by stricter regulations.
  3. New trading mechanisms in these shadow markets could pose risks during crises, as they may continue to obstruct major market players despite efforts to stabilize the system.

Germany Surpasses Japan At #3 Nominal GDP Spot

Japan Economy Watch • 319 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Economy GDP Currency Population Competitiveness
  1. The reversal of rank in GDP between Germany and Japan is largely due to currency fluctuations, rather than significant changes in real GDP, population, or workforce size.
  2. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) offers a more accurate comparison of economic power by adjusting for currency exchange rate differences.
  3. Japan's slower growth in comparison to Germany is influenced by changes in population size, with significant implications for economic performance and global influence.

​ GDP=C+G+I+NX

Points And Figures • 772 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
đź’° Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Government spending Inflation
  1. GDP is an important measure of how well an economy is doing. When GDP goes up, it usually means people are earning more and living better.
  2. Different economists have different views on government spending. Classical economists often see it as a negative thing for the economy, while Keynesians believe it can be beneficial.
  3. Current economic uncertainty affects business investment decisions, making it tough for the economy to grow. However, there are signs of recovery, like increased merger activity.

Fundamentally Broken IPO Market

Points And Figures • 319 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Investing Market Trends Venture Capital Regulations
  1. When companies go public, there can be a big gap between their initial stock price and what it trades for right after. For example, Figma's stock jumped from $33 to $85 at the start, leaving a lot of money on the table for early investors.
  2. The current IPO process favors big investors and leaves retail investors with little chance to buy in at a fair price. This has led to a broken system that needs a rethink to be more fair for everyone involved.
  3. Direct listings could offer a better way for companies to go public. This approach could help more founders and investors keep profits instead of giving them to brokers and large funds.

The Dollar's Death In 2026 Is Now A Mainstream Talking Point

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 49 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Global Finance Monetary Policy Currencies Central Banking International Trade Commodities Financial Markets
  1. The US dollar’s global dominance is eroding as countries and blocs build alternative settlement systems and settle more trade in local currencies, making the dollar increasingly optional.
  2. US fiscal and monetary policy choices plus the weaponization of dollar-based finance are pushing other nations to de-dollarize, and the US Treasury market shows structural fragility that often needs central bank support in stress.
  3. Market signals—rising gold and silver, growth of RMB-linked and commodity-backed stablecoins, and wider mainstream coverage—suggest a steady loss of confidence in the dollar rather than a sudden collapse, with major shifts likely ahead.

The US Must Return To A Gold Standard

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy Currency Central Banks Fiscal policy Inflation Government debt Macroeconomics Banking
  1. The dollar has been heavily debased over time because the government and the Fed keep creating money, which erodes purchasing power and risks a currency collapse.
  2. Reinstating a gold standard—by promising future redeemability of dollars for gold at the market price and never suspending that promise—would force strict monetary discipline.
  3. Without a hard money anchor like gold, politicians will keep hiding the real costs of spending and war through inflation, so only a gold-based system can deliver lasting monetary stability.

2023 Annual Report

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 479 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Investments Performance Goals Lessons Learned Newsletter
  1. Achieved a return of 34.3% in 2023 compared to 24.1% for the S&P.
  2. Focused on refining the investment strategy, promoting Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) over Growth at Any Price (GAAP), and emphasizing value for long-term market-beating potential.
  3. Learned lessons such as avoiding blind dollar-cost averaging, seeking stocks with low expectations, and collaborating with others to improve quality and results.

The Hidden Bank Panic

The Dollar Endgame • 259 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Banking Economy Regulations Capital Assets
  1. Institutions are requesting the Fed to exclude Treasuries from their leverage ratios post the Bank Term Funding Program, which is causing concern within the financial industry.
  2. Capital requirements in banks are crucial for preventing insolvency, with risk-based and leverage ratios being the two main types of requirements.
  3. Leverage ratios do not consider the risk levels of assets and require banks to maintain a specific ratio of capital to assets, helping ensure financial stability.

Portfolio Optimisation, Luck & Regret, François Rochon, & Running Money for the Long Term

Investment Talk • 687 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Investment Portfolio Management Sponsorship
  1. Investment Talk newsletter curates interesting content for over 19,200 investors every two weeks.
  2. AlphaSense offers a 14-day free trial of expert interviews and qualitative insights for analysts and portfolio managers.
  3. Paid subscribers can access exclusive posts and support the Investment Talk newsletter.

Top Links 754 Exxon's long plateau. Banana economics. Modal magic & the General of Physics.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 30 May 25
đź’° Finance Economics Energy Markets Investments Policy
  1. ExxonMobil is not rapidly expanding its fossil fuel production. This suggests a more stable or declining phase for the company rather than aggressive growth.
  2. The content focuses on varied topics like economics and physics, indicating a diverse range of interests and insights.
  3. The support of subscribers is essential for maintaining the platform, highlighting the importance of community in content creation.