The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

What is a Derivative?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Market Analysis Financial Instruments Trading Strategies
  1. Derivatives are financial tools that get their value from something else, like stocks or commodities. They don't have value on their own; their worth depends on the performance of the underlying asset.
  2. Derivatives exist to help with risk management, leverage potential gains, and allow speculation on price movements. They can protect investments or amplify losses based on how they're used.
  3. There are different types of derivatives, including futures, options, and swaps. Each has its own way of working, but all can increase financial risk if not used carefully.
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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. House prices in the U.S. increased by 3.6% over the past year, according to the Case-Shiller National House Price Index. This suggests that home values are generally rising.
  2. In October, prices went up by 0.35% from the previous month, marking the 21st straight month of increases. Most major cities saw price growth, but some cities like San Francisco have seen declines from their peaks.
  3. Although house prices continue to rise, the rate of growth is slowing down compared to previous years. Factors like high mortgage rates and low inventory are affecting affordability.

Understanding ETFs

DeFi Education • 519 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Crypto Regulations ETFs
  1. ETFs are investment funds that hold a collection of assets and are traded like stocks. They aim to track the performance of an index or asset class.
  2. Creating your own ETF is complicated and needs approval from regulators. It’s not as easy as just launching a product; there's a lot of scrutiny involved.
  3. ETFs have a unique process for buying and selling called creation and redemption. This helps keep their price in line with the value of the assets they hold.

It's Christmas (Chaos), All Over, Again

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Policy Investing Strategies Market Analysis Financial Risks
  1. The market reacted sharply after the Federal Reserve cut rates, but this might not be a good sign for investors. Historically, market crashes often happen after rate cuts, indicating potential risks ahead.
  2. There are concerns about high levels of leverage in the market, especially in options and cryptocurrency. This borrowing can make market movements more extreme and unpredictable.
  3. The current market euphoria might be misleading, as past patterns suggest a sudden downturn could come. It's important to be cautious and not ignore the reality of valuations and economic conditions.

Shades of 2008?

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Banking Market Trends International Markets Risk management
  1. The commercial real estate market is facing challenges due to decreased demand for office and retail spaces, leading to increased vacancy rates.
  2. Approximately $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt in the US is set to mature within the next two years, posing risks for banks and investors.
  3. There are concerns of a commercial real estate crisis resembling the 2008 financial crisis, with warning signs evident in the US, Europe, and Asia.

Oxford JPM Market Breakdown

ASeq Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Trends Stock Performance Financial reports
  1. Oxford's market mostly focuses on research, making up over 80% of their business. This is different from Illumina, which has a bit more than 50% of its work in clinical areas.
  2. There seems to be some confusion about how much applied research is included, as it may come from a service provider.
  3. The information comes from a presentation at the JPM conference, which is aimed at understanding the different market sectors for these companies.

How Liquidity Impacts Market Crashes

DeFi Education • 599 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Risk management Market Analysis Cryptocurrency
  1. Low liquidity can cause big price drops in markets, meaning even small buy or sell orders can affect prices a lot. This can lead to more volatility and crashes.
  2. Market makers provide important liquidity, but they may pull back during volatile times. This makes it harder for traders to buy or sell quickly without impacting prices.
  3. Knowing when liquidity is low can help investors manage risks better. By watching market conditions, investors can make smarter decisions about when to trade or hold their assets.

CFPB Proposes Rule To Close TILA Overdraft "Loophole"

Fintech Business Weekly • 661 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Regulation Banking Investing Fintech Economics
  1. CFPB proposed a rule to close the TILA overdraft loophole, aiming to protect consumers from billions in junk fees.
  2. The proposed rule would require large banks to treat overdrafts like credit products, disclosing APRs and considering actual costs.
  3. Exempting banks under $10 billion in assets from the rule has sparked debate, highlighting the complexity of regulating banking fees.

💥Bed Bath & Bagholders💥

PETITION • 569 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Markets Bankruptcy Liquidity
  1. Hudson Bay Capital and BBBY structured a deal involving convertible preferred stock, benefiting Hudson Bay financially.
  2. BBBY raised $225mm to address credit issues and pay vendors, but needed more liquidity for a turnaround.
  3. The deal with Hudson Bay also included warrants to buy $800mm of preferred stock, with conditions to protect Hudson Bay's downside.

Why QE is a lock

The Bitcoin Layer • 275 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance
  1. The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) process is similar to historical devaluation of currency by reducing precious metal content.
  2. Quantitative easing involves the Federal Reserve creating new currency, which mathematically leads to an eventual need for more QE.
  3. Quantitative easing is better described as an asset swap rather than simply printing more money.

Homebuilder Earnings Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Investment Analysis Market research Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings are being updated, which is important for understanding the housing market. This update can give insights into how homebuilders are performing financially.
  2. Keeping track of homebuilder performance can help in making informed decisions about buying or selling a home. If builders are doing well, it might indicate a strong housing market.
  3. The information provided is available through a subscription service, which offers more detailed analyses and insights. Exploring these resources can be beneficial for those interested in housing trends.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Monetary Policy Economic Trends
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

Arkansas Congressman’s Proposal To “Make Community Banking Great Again”

Fintech Business Weekly • 44 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Payments Fintech Legislation
  1. A Congressman from Arkansas has a plan to help community banks. He wants to improve regulations to make banking easier and more fair for smaller banks.
  2. The CFPB has decided which digital payment apps will be closely monitored. Apps that process a lot of transactions, like Venmo and Cash App, will need to follow new rules to protect consumers.
  3. During a recent hearing, top banking officials talked about the health of the banking system. They mentioned the need for stronger risk management and staying updated with new financial technologies.

Reconsidering the "2020s as 1940s" Analogy

The Overshoot • 550 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economic History Global Economy Government Response Debt crisis Forecasting
  1. The global economy faced crises in different time periods, revealing government responses can impact recovery.
  2. Excessive debts before a crisis can hinder growth post-crisis, affecting employment and national income.
  3. Governments borrowing and spending during emergencies can lead to positive outcomes, improving sectors and reducing debt burdens.

In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Risk management Economic Indicators Corporate Finance
  1. Risk-free investments aren't always truly safe, especially during financial crises. Events like the 2008 crisis showed that even government bonds can carry risk.
  2. Inflation and real interest rates play a big role in determining risk-free rates, meaning they can change based on economic conditions. A higher expected inflation usually leads to higher risk-free rates.
  3. The trust in governments to honor their debt has declined over time, leading to uncertainty about using government bonds as risk-free investments. This loss of trust makes it essential to reassess what we consider safe investments.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 05 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Earnings Dividends Bonds
  1. Selling stocks in May may not be the best strategy, as historical data shows it only works about a quarter of the time since 2008.
  2. The current stock market is looking healthier, with positive earnings and potential interest rate cuts, which might lead to steady gains this year.
  3. Investors are keeping an eye on dividend stocks and marijuana stocks, as both sectors show potential for growth and steady income.

Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends Monetary Policy Risk management
  1. It's important to consider that you could be wrong about the market crashing; sometimes things can go up instead of down. Keeping an open mind helps in understanding the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Thinking about worst-case scenarios can be useful, even if they seem unlikely. It’s good to prepare yourself mentally for different outcomes.
  3. Rethinking your assumptions is healthy, especially when the market behaves in ways that don't make sense. Questioning yourself can lead to growth and better insights.

Corporate profits were biggest driver of inflation in Europe, IMF admits

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation Corporate Profits Central Banks Monetary Policy
  1. Corporate profits have been a major driver of inflation in Europe since 2021, with companies increasing prices more than the rising costs of imported energy.
  2. The IMF suggests that companies may need to reduce profit margins to help keep inflation in line with targets set by the European Central Bank.
  3. The study challenges the traditional view that inflation is solely caused by demand-pull factors, highlighting how excessive profit increases by corporations can also drive inflation.

Inflation is Bad, Actually

Economic Forces • 7 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation Macroeconomics Price theory Taxation Economic Policy
  1. Some people think inflation is good because it helps prevent deflation, but this argument is weak. Deflation can be harmful mainly when caused by poor policies, not just by falling prices.
  2. Inflation is often compared to a hidden tax because it decreases the value of money. Unlike regular taxes, people might not realize their purchasing power is being reduced until they feel the effects.
  3. Overall, inflation can create confusion and make economic decisions harder. It undermines the value of money as a reference point, leading to more mistakes and inefficiencies in both personal and business finances.

What If We Run Inflation Hot: Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Inflation Macroeconomics Market Trends
  1. Inflation may rise faster than expected, which could surprise many investors. People are not prepared for high growth in the economy right now.
  2. The recent economic changes have benefited many workers and industries that were struggling for a long time. This includes wage increases in sectors that needed them.
  3. Questions are being raised about whether efforts to control inflation are really aimed at the overall economy or at a specific group of people in the rural areas.