The hottest Banking Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Plumbing Notes: Swifter Injections

Concoda • 664 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The market is expecting the Fed to start adding liquidity sooner than later, possibly around January. This means banks might have more cash available sooner than previously thought.
  2. There are signs that funding conditions are improving slightly, even with banks tightening their balance sheets. So, while things might look tough, the year-end might not be as bad as it seems.
  3. The Fed is likely to keep rates steady for now and avoid making big changes. They don't want to create more chaos in the funding markets, especially with liquidity injections on the horizon.

Plumbing Notes: A Faulty Relief Valve

Concoda • 599 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The Federal Reserve's changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) will not significantly boost demand for U.S. Treasuries from banks. This is because the adjustments provide only minimal benefits for banks to increase their Treasury holdings.
  2. Banks are still mainly influenced by risk-weighted capital requirements, which could prevent them from buying more U.S. Treasuries. Even with a lowered SLR, banks might not feel compelled to increase their inventory of government debt.
  3. A stronger emphasis on growing deposits and other market factors are likely to drive bank demand for Treasuries more than the new regulatory changes. So, the real growth in Treasury buying might come from broader economic improvements rather than just regulatory easing.

The Fed's New Target: Part I

Concoda • 281 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The Fed is moving away from targeting an unsecured overnight fed‑funds rate and toward a secured repo benchmark as its main policy rate to reduce volatility and strengthen control over money markets.
  2. The Fed has started large reserve injections and new permanent open‑market operations that have compressed overnight money‑market rates and prevented year‑end plumbing stress.
  3. As a result, banks’ balance sheets are set to expand, the repo market will become central to rate setting, and the unsecured interbank market’s role is likely to shrink.

Fintech’s Dumbest Lawsuit: Mastercard-Backed TomoCredit Flouts Trademark Dispute Settlement

Fintech Business Weekly • 148 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Regulatory barriers protecting incumbent banks are being dismantled as many companies—from automakers to foreign neobanks—push for bank charters and deposit insurance.
  2. Tether launched an 'onshore' USAâ‚® and markets it as 'federally regulated.' U.S. stablecoin rules and issuer licenses aren't finalized yet, so that label is mainly marketing positioning.
  3. Several fintechs are failing or facing serious legal and compliance problems: Seis shut down from weak economics and churn, Kontigo faces sanctions and licensing issues, and TomoCredit is accused of deceptive practices and flouting a trademark settlement.

Top Links 966 Apollo going risk-off. What's up with Belgium. Southern geometries and François Ier's châteaux.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Apollo Global, with roughly $908bn in assets, is moving to a risk-off stance by building liquidity at insurer Athene—buying tens of billions in U.S. Treasuries and trimming leveraged positions.
  2. Recent developments in Belgium are flagged as a noteworthy topic attracting attention.
  3. Cultural pieces highlight southern geometric art and the châteaux of François I, including imagery like Gunther Gerzso’s 'Southern Queen' (1963).
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

"No KYC" Crypto Cards Tap Corporate Issuing Loopholes

Fintech Business Weekly • 104 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
đź”® Crypto Banking
  1. Some crypto "no KYC" card services exploit a corporate card issuing loophole to let users fund and spend with crypto without proper identity checks, and some even market this to sanctioned countries like Iran.
  2. Layered fintech partnerships, weak beneficial-ownership rules, and gaps in onboarding mean banks and regulators often can't see the true users or owners of cards, making it easy for bad actors to hide.
  3. Enforcement and fixes have been spotty so these schemes keep reappearing across many BINs and issuers. Separately, Varo raised $123.9 million despite still being unprofitable, showing mixed outcomes in the fintech market.

If Financials Fall, Does the Bull Market Follow?

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The financial sector is now sending a clear warning that could precede a broader market pullback, and that signal feels important to watch.
  2. A technical breakdown first flagged on Feb 28 has continued to deteriorate, making the concern more urgent than before.
  3. The full, detailed analysis and updates are available only to paid subscribers, indicating deeper coverage behind a paywall.

Top Links 965 Oracle's CapEx shock. The German credit crunch of 2022. Work-related deaths & Žižek "chats" with Kotkin about Stalin.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 28 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Oracle raised its FY26 capital expenditure outlook to $50 billion, a $15 billion increase from the prior guide, signaling much larger infrastructure spending.
  2. The German credit crunch of 2022 is highlighted as a significant financial event worth revisiting.
  3. The roundup also flags work-related deaths and a conversation where Žižek chats with Kotkin about Stalin, linking labor-safety issues with political and cultural debate.

One More Wafer Thin Mint?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 3009 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Private credit is growing fast and lending to companies that may already be overwhelmed with debt. This could lead to more financial problems down the line.
  2. Many private companies are struggling to pay their debts, and bankruptcies are rising. This suggests that the private credit market might not be as stable as it seems.
  3. There is a concern that Wall Street might just be looking to profit from private credit, even if it leads to bigger economic issues in the future.

Infographics: How Liquidity Requirements Create Demand For Reserves/U.S. Treasuries

Concoda • 340 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Liquidity rules push big banks to hold safe, liquid assets like reserve balances and U.S. Treasuries, which creates steady demand for those assets.
  2. Large banks face intraday liquidity needs that force them to keep enough reserves available to settle payments and manage cash flows during the day.
  3. Visual diagrams help show how those intraday requirements link to central bank policy and Treasury demand, clarifying why reserves matter for markets.

#50 - Why AI Won’t Magically Flip Your Bank’s Spend Pattern

OSS.fund Newsletter • 56 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. AI won’t magically flip a bank’s spend from run to change because banks are tightly governed and face real costs like compliance, dual-run tax, and mandatory testing that prevent a quick switch. These constraints mean savings come slowly and require human-controlled policy and evidence gates.
  2. Treat modernization as a spectrum and manage it as a portfolio: Operate, Comply, Harden & Simplify, and Compete & Grow. Use a Good Bank/Bad Bank approach with a policy-driven bridge, deterministic routing, and continuous reconciliation so migrations are auditable, reversible, and lead to real decommissioning.
  3. Use AI as an assistant to cut toil, automate evidence, speed analysis, and help translate legacy code, but don’t give it authority to change policies or skip validation. Capture the realistic savings to fund simplification and growth, aiming for practical targets (for example ~50/50 over five years) rather than expecting an immediate 60/40 to 40/60 flip.

Final Chapter Closes on Archegos Scandal

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2486 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo agreed to pay $120 million to settle a lawsuit related to the Archegos scandal. This came after they were accused of hiding conflicts of interest while managing shares of ViacomCBS.
  2. The Archegos situation caused massive losses amounting to over $10 billion for multiple banks, highlighting how risky dealings by one individual can destabilize large financial institutions.
  3. Bill Hwang, the founder of Archegos, was sentenced to 18 years in prison for his roles in insider trading and for causing huge financial damages, showing the serious consequences of taking reckless financial risks.

Lawler: Update on GSEs and Early Read on Bank Response

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 124 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. A housing economist shared updated data and commentary on upcoming GSE MBS purchases and recent movements in mortgage yields and spreads.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac released their December volume summary reports, the latest monthly data ahead of a key early-January policy milestone.
  3. The update gives an early read on how banks may respond to GSE actions and market shifts, which could influence mortgage spreads and market liquidity.

Infographics: The Fed's Repo Rate "Sweet Spot"

Concoda • 286 implied HN points • 28 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The Fed wants repo rate benchmarks to sit in a narrow "sweet spot" just below the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) rate.
  2. It will actively force those repo rates to print inside that zone, even when market pressures push them elsewhere.
  3. Opposing forces can move repo benchmarks off-target, but the Fed intends to counteract them to keep rates anchored just below IORB.

Top Links 952 Tracking google to call the peak. Getting Europeans to love finance & how Sargent fell out of love with portrait-painting.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Spikes in Google searches can help identify when investing fads are peaking, so tracking search trends is a useful signal for market attention.
  2. There are ongoing efforts to get Europeans more engaged with finance, which could change how they save, invest, and view markets.
  3. Sargent moved away from portrait painting later in his career, showing how an artist’s interests and style can shift over time.

Banks Sell Off Hard: This Is How Credit Cracks

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Regional banks and private credit are fragile because they're heavily exposed to commercial real estate, subprime auto loans, and generous valuations on illiquid loans.
  2. Investors suddenly sold bank positions hard, indicating the market is finally recognizing those underlying credit weaknesses.
  3. Fresh macroeconomic data triggered the sell-off, showing that broader economic signals can quickly reveal credit stress and that the situation isn’t out of the woods.

Podcast with UCLA Housing Voice - Again!

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Fixed-rate mortgages give borrowers predictable payments by shifting inflation/speculation risk onto the loan, which raises interest rates and makes mortgages more expensive.
  2. The Fixed Amortization/Adjustable Principal (FA/AP) is a floating-rate loan where you pay a fixed scheduled payment and the lender adjusts the principal each year to reconcile the difference with the market rate.
  3. FA/AP produces lower and more dependable starting payments (about 20% lower in the example) with only small annual payment changes, and backtests show it keeps debt-to-income from rising materially over the loan term.

Some Mortgage Payment Arithmetic

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. A 30-year mortgage has higher monthly payments but lets you pay off your principal faster compared to a 50-year mortgage, which has lower payments but keeps you in debt longer.
  2. Gimmicks like 50-year mortgages can seem appealing because of lower payments, but they slow down how quickly you build equity in your home.
  3. When deciding whether to pay off your mortgage early, consider how much you could earn by investing that money elsewhere versus the interest you're saving.

Plumbing Notes: The Repo Fortification

Concoda • 340 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The Fed's repo facility is struggling, with many banks hesitant to use it due to a fear of being seen as in trouble. This means that even though rates might be lower, banks are avoiding the facility, impacting liquidity.
  2. Recent efforts like morning Fed repos have been implemented to help banks access cash more easily and reduce exposure to interest rate risks. However, these changes are seen as temporary fixes rather than long-term solutions.
  3. There are still underlying issues, such as the stigma around using the Fed's facilities and costs associated with balance sheets, that need to be addressed for the repo system to work effectively. The Fed may need to take bold actions to restore confidence and improve access to central bank funding.

Why small developers are getting squeezed out of the housing market

Noahpinion • 11588 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
đź’Ľ Business Banking
  1. Traditional banks aren't willing to take on the risks associated with financing small real estate development projects due to the complex and risky nature of construction work.
  2. Small developers struggle to access financing from traditional lenders because they lack the track record and financial resources required to secure loans, creating a barrier to entry in the industry.
  3. Institutionalization of real estate development by large firms can lead to a loss of community identity, charm, and personalized building designs, highlighting the importance of supporting small developers in creating unique and vibrant neighborhoods.

Top Links 920 Dangerous positioning. Financial repression in the 21st century. Ornette Coleman and Jacques Derrida in conversation.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Dangerous positioning in finance can lead to risky outcomes, so it's important to be cautious. Many people might think they are diversified, but it can be misleading.
  2. Financial repression is a key trend in the 21st century, affecting how economies grow and interact. It can limit investment freedom and impact savings.
  3. Conversations about art and philosophy, like the one between Ornette Coleman and Jacques Derrida, can help us understand cultural influences and connections. Ideas in art often reflect deeper thoughts in society.

Weekend thoughts follow up: $NYCB insider buying and mea culpa

Yet Another Value Blog • 1395 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The loan book for NYCB is in worse shape than expected, potentially facing huge losses due to rent-regulated properties and increasing expenses.
  2. Despite the challenges, NYCB has over $7 billion in tangible equity, which could help the bank navigate through the crisis.
  3. Insider buying at NYCB following a special update call shows confidence in the institution, highlighting efforts to stabilize the stock amid a tough situation.

Oh, Lucky Man!

Daniel Pinchbeck’s Newsletter • 10 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Howard Lutnick runs Cantor Fitzgerald, which now serves as the main custodian and broker linking Tether-style stablecoins to US Treasury debt, and stands to earn large ongoing fees as that bridge. This gives his firm a central role in moving crypto liquidity into government securities.
  2. Lutnick has a history of aggressive, self‑interested business behavior and close ties to controversial figures like Brock Pierce, Steve Bannon, and Jeffrey Epstein, and he’s been accused of lying and positioning his firm to profit from government policies. These patterns suggest his influence mixes private gain with public policy.
  3. Forcing stablecoins to hold Treasuries (via laws like the GENIUS Act) funnels crypto money into government debt, can reduce credit available to ordinary businesses, act like a backdoor CBDC, and concentrate financial control among billionaires and their firms. That structural shift could reshape who controls liquidity and credit in the economy.

Issue #149: Stripe Eyes PayPal, Block Cuts 4,000 Jobs for AI, And Coinbase Opens Stock Trading

Fintech Radar • 10 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Stripe is exploring buying all or parts of PayPal — likely eyeing Braintree or Venmo — which would merge merchant infrastructure, consumer wallets, and crypto rails into a single payments powerhouse.
  2. Coinbase opened stock and ETF trading to all US users and teamed up with Yahoo Finance, letting people trade thousands of equities (and fund trades with USDC) so stocks and crypto live on one platform.
  3. Block cut about 4,000 jobs, betting that new AI capabilities can replace large swaths of work and turning the company into a much smaller, more automated organization — a move that could signal similar shifts across fintech.

❄️ 💳 Prime et Netflix gratuits ? Tinder Gold et 3 pass WeWork offerts ?

Snowball • 1395 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Some credit cards offer unique benefits like free Amazon Prime or cashback in the form of investments.
  2. Revolut cards come with various advantages based on the subscription level, like free currency exchange or cashback on accommodations.
  3. American Express cards provide a range of benefits, from purchase guarantees to access to exclusive events. The higher-tier cards offer even more luxurious perks like worldwide lounge access.

Black and Barofsky

A Havenstein Moment. • 1375 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Identifying the four key ingredients of control fraud can help predict its impact.
  2. Financial crises can result in actions that seem unjust but are necessary for fair outcomes.
  3. Corporate failures often involve calculated dishonesty by top leaders and a systemic Ponzi scheme.

Issue #148: Visa Goes Shopping in Argentina, eBay Bets on Pay by Bank, And Mexico's Plata Beats Nubank to a Banking License

Fintech Radar • 12 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Visa buying Argentina’s Prisma and Newpay signals a major push to own payments infrastructure in Latin America, vertically integrating processing and wallets to capture fast digital growth. It also acts as a hedge against mounting regulatory pressure on its core card business.
  2. Large platforms are embedding financial services — X is building broad money-transmission capabilities and eBay invested in TrueLayer to roll out Pay by Bank — which could shift transactions away from cards toward bank-authenticated, account-to-account flows. These moves make platform-led payments a real competitive threat to traditional card networks.
  3. Fintech infrastructure and digital banks are maturing: Modern Treasury’s unified fiat-and-stablecoin payments API simplifies moving money across rails, while Mexico’s Plata winning a full banking licence ahead of bigger rivals shows regulators are enabling fast-growing digital banks. Together these trends lower barriers for startups to scale banking and payments products.

Interest Rate Risks are Collapsing Banks

The Informationist • 1650 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals

SVB

Market Sentiment • 1552 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
đź’Ľ Business Banking
  1. Understanding the different sides of risk is crucial - the likelihood of getting hit, the average impact, and the extreme consequences.
  2. Banks operate by lending out deposits at higher rates to make profits, but this system poses the risk of bank runs.
  3. SVB's rapid collapse was triggered by increased stress, a market sell-off, and a loss of customer confidence due to poor communication.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 12 Jul 24
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. Marko Kolanovic's bearish predictions about the stock market didn't happen, leading to his departure from JP Morgan. In a strong market, being negative can be isolating.
  2. Tesla's stocks have been rising quickly due to excitement around AI and self-driving cars, but some analysts warn that the stock may be overrated at this point.
  3. Costco is raising its membership fees for the first time in seven years, which could lead to an increase in their profits. Many analysts continue to view Costco as a strong investment option.

The Great Consolidation

Deep Pulusani - Risk • 333 implied HN points • 30 Sep 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Banking
  1. Banks, media, and big corporations are becoming fewer and more powerful, concentrating wealth and political influence and leaving local communities, small businesses, and ordinary people underserved.
  2. As power concentrates, regulators weaken or rely on self-reporting, which lets environmental harm, unfair bailouts, and pervasive surveillance and opaque algorithms go unchecked.
  3. Counterforces include decentralizing technologies (like cryptography, open algorithms, and decentralized money) and renewed local, relational community organizing, both of which restore privacy, accountability, and distributed power.

The Anglo-American Hand Behind The Rise Of Fascism Then And Now

Matt Ehret's Insights • 1277 implied HN points • 09 May 23
đź’ľ History Banking
  1. The integration of leading Nazis into Anglo-American intelligence complex after WWII led to the rise of fascism then and now.
  2. Modern expressions of fascism seen in Ukraine and other post Soviet nations glorify Nazi collaborators.
  3. The financiers and industrialists of the 1920s -1940s were key in fueling fascism with their support and resources, showing that Hitler and Mussolini were not 'their own men'.

Michael Hudson: Why the US banking system is breaking up

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1275 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. The US banking system is facing a significant crisis due to the consequences of past actions, like the 2009 bank bailout and the quantitative easing measures that followed.
  2. Rising interest rates are causing bond prices to fall, which is putting pressure on banks as their assets decrease in value against deposit liabilities.
  3. The current banking crisis is reminiscent of past financial failures, like the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, and is exacerbated by factors like the cryptocurrency wave and derivatives trading.

Fed's New Tool: BTFP...is it Inflationary?

The Informationist • 1257 implied HN points • 26 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Banking
  1. BTFP is a program by the Fed to provide liquidity to underfunded banks facing large customer withdrawals.
  2. Banks can borrow against securities like U.S. Treasuries with no haircut and at a low cost.
  3. BTFP offers a sweetheart deal to banks, providing liquidity without stigma of borrowing from the Discount Window.