The hottest Decision-making Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

On the limits of utility theory

Sam’s Newsletter • 58 implied HN points • 05 Apr 23
🔬 Science Decision-making
  1. Utility theory is a powerful tool in academic fields like decision theory and economics, explaining human behavior based on preferences and optimization.
  2. Utility theory, while universal in application, has limitations when it comes to conflicting preferences that require creativity to resolve.
  3. Applying utility theory to scenarios like AGIs, which involve conflicting desires and behaviors, may result in unrealistic models and outcomes.

Jump!- Why Taking The Leap Is Your Logical Next Step

Kristina God's Online Writing Club • 159 implied HN points • 18 Oct 22
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Taking a leap in life doesn't have to be an emotional choice. It can actually be a logical decision based on what you truly want.
  2. Adults often overthink their decisions, unlike children who jump into experiences without fear. Embracing a childlike curiosity can lead to growth and joy.
  3. While there are concerns about making big changes, the rewards and opportunities that come from taking the leap can be incredible and unexpected.

Naming risky situations

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 99 implied HN points • 03 May 23
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. The term 'risk' is often misunderstood and misused. Many people think it means a situation where we know some things but don't know the outcome, even though true risk is much rarer.
  2. Decision-making strategies designed for formal risk scenarios may not work well in real-life situations, which often involve many unknowns. This can lead to poor choices when we apply the wrong approach.
  3. Different people define 'risk' in various ways, which creates confusion in communication. It’s important to clarify what we mean when we talk about risk to make better decisions.

Pros and Cons of a C-level Job in 2024+

The Uncommon Executive • 19 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. C-level executive roles offer significant impact on company trajectory and industries, allowing for big bets and tangible results in a shorter timescale.
  2. Executives have more control over their schedule, better anticipation of risks, and the ability to create work for others at well-run companies.
  3. The executive role comes with overflowing stress from high-level accountability, feelings of loneliness at the top, and a distance from day-to-day operations.
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Careers: Aligning Stated and Revealed Preferences

Moral Mayhem Podcast • 19 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Many people think their career paths are more straightforward than they actually are. It's okay to change jobs if you're not happy, as often the risks are lower than you think.
  2. People sometimes stay in jobs longer than they should because they're worried about making a change. Remember, doors don't completely close and new opportunities often arise.
  3. Anxiety about career choices can feel overwhelming because of how much we tie our value to work. However, this fear usually doesn't match the reality of risk when trying something new.

Don't tell me what to do 😡 — Reactance bias

10x your mind • 119 implied HN points • 18 Aug 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Decision-making
  1. People often react adversely when told what to do, leading to the reactance bias where they do the opposite just to assert their freedom of choice
  2. Feeling out of control can increase the desire to go against restrictions, like strict rules on teenagers may push them to break them
  3. Having many options can create a sense of security, even if some features may never be used, leading to biased buying decisions

How to speed up your group decisions

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 19 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Group decisions can take a long time, especially with remote work. It's important to find ways to make these decisions quicker.
  2. Using decision maps can help clarify the decision-making process. They can guide groups through their choices more efficiently.
  3. Understanding how long decisions take in your organization can highlight where improvements are needed. This awareness can help teams speed things up.

Why we should look for the good reasons behind our behaviour

Optimally Irrational • 77 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Understanding our behavior is important because it's not just random; it comes from a long history of survival and adaptation. We should look for reasons behind our choices instead of labeling them as irrational.
  2. Historically, research has focused a lot on cognitive biases, making it seem like humans are mostly flawed thinkers. Now, there's a shift towards recognizing our mental processes can also be adaptively efficient.
  3. Many behaviors that seem like mistakes may actually be smart solutions given the complex decisions we face. It's better to explore the reasons behind behaviors to find their potential usefulness.

Optionality — The power of smart options and experiments

10x your mind • 19 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🚌 Education Decision-making
  1. Optionality is about having backup plans for complex problems, not just deciding between simple choices like ice cream flavors.
  2. Smart options should be non-obligatory and allow for decisions after outcomes, helping increase luck in various aspects of life.
  3. Practice optionality for potentially unlimited gains with limited losses by exploring new opportunities and treating each option as an experiment.

How empty spaces in your calendar lead to better decisions

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 39 implied HN points • 21 Nov 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Building emotional competence helps leaders make better decisions. It's important for leaders to understand their emotions and those of others.
  2. Having empty spaces in your schedule allows for better brainstorming and connecting ideas. It gives your brain time to think and create.
  3. The idea of 'blocks of time' can limit decision-making in companies. Companies should be more flexible instead of strictly scheduling everything.

systems *doing* and complexity *doing*

The Beautiful Mess • 79 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Bringing different people together in a fun way can help create new connections and ideas. It's important for everyone to share their unique perspectives.
  2. Sometimes it's better to wait and see what happens instead of jumping into action right away. This allows space for good ideas to emerge naturally.
  3. You can simplify complex issues to help understand them, but always remember to keep the messy details nearby so you don't lose important context.

Mental Models: tools supporting problem solvers for better decision making

Poczwardowski Notes • 39 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
🚌 Education Decision-making
  1. Using mental models can enhance decision-making by offering different perspectives and minimizing blind spots.
  2. Engaging with tools and frameworks like mental models can lead to improved problem-solving strategies.
  3. Learning from mistakes is valuable, but utilizing structured models like mental models can equip problem solvers with additional support.

the 5-step framework for making clear choices

Tiny Empires • 73 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Establish foundation decisions that are your core rules. This means making important choices once so you don't have to think about them again.
  2. Create templates for regular decisions. These templates will make your choices easier by providing a simple 'if/then' format for common situations.
  3. Batch similar decisions together and set rules for major choices. This helps you make decisions more efficiently and avoid feeling overwhelmed.

Should you listen to your audience? | #5

The Pole • 79 implied HN points • 23 Jan 23
🎨 Art & Illustration Decision-making
  1. Deciding whether to listen to your audience isn't always easy - audience feedback matters more in client work than in personal projects.
  2. Starting out in a creative field can be tough as your early work often falls short of your taste and potential - it's normal and requires persistence.
  3. Making creative decisions is preferred over dealing with complicated decisions early in a project - starting with templates can save time and reduce overwhelm.

None of Us is As Dumb As All of Us

The Radar • 19 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. Processes, rules, and policies should not be substitutes for leadership. Bureaucracies lead to inefficiency and hindrance in decision-making.
  2. Bureaucracies treat customers and adversaries the same, making it difficult to get requests handled efficiently. They drown common sense and generate unnecessary rules and policies.
  3. Leaders should rely on their presence and values rather than creating new structures as substitutes. Avoid bureaucracy as much as possible, as it can turn against its creators.

The Engineering Leader's Process for Continuous Improvement

Developing Leadership • 39 implied HN points • 25 Apr 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Engineering leaders have two main responsibilities: improving developer experience and delivering impact to end-users.
  2. The Engineering Leader's Process for Continuous Improvement involves identifying, discussing, deciding, aligning, acting, and measuring.
  3. It is important for engineering leaders to continuously loop through the improvement process, not just during times of issue.

Who are We?

Silicon Reckoner • 39 implied HN points • 19 May 23
🕹 Technology Decision-making
  1. Geoffrey Hinton's resignation from Google raises concerns about democratic decision-making in technology
  2. The involvement of tech industry in mathematical research may reduce autonomy of practitioners
  3. There is a need to reconsider current models of AI governance and prioritize societal interests over corporate motives

Conspiracy? Or Incompetence?

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 39 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. Hanlon's Razor suggests not attributing to malice what can be explained by incompetence, a reminder to consider human fallibility.
  2. The intention behind dismissing failures as basic ineptitude is often to maintain trust in the system and those in power.
  3. Whether actions are driven by conspiracy or incompetence, what truly matters is the impact of those actions and the need for accountability.

Randomization maximalism

inexactscience • 39 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23
🔬 Science Decision-making
  1. Relying only on randomized experiments can be limiting. It's important to consider all types of evidence based on their quality.
  2. Not every decision needs a complex A/B test; sometimes simpler data or even gut feelings are enough.
  3. We should weigh the cost of getting reliable data against the value it provides. For some choices, high-quality data is a must, but for others, less rigorous information can do the job.

Book Review: “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke 4/5

Poczwardowski Notes • 19 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
📚 Literature Decision-making
  1. Luck and randomness are significant factors in our lives and books that help in understanding this are valuable reads.
  2. Decisions should be separate from outcomes, and tools like backcasting and premortems can aid in making smarter choices.
  3. The book emphasizes the importance of considering the consequences of decisions in the short term, medium term, and long term through the 10-10-10 rule.

Off the top of my head 💭 — Availability bias

10x your mind • 99 implied HN points • 23 Jun 22
🔬 Science Decision-making
  1. The availability bias influences decision-making by making us rely on easy, quick examples that come to mind, rather than considering a full range of options.
  2. People tend to overestimate their own contributions while underestimating others'. Understanding this bias can help in recognizing and diffusing tension in teamwork.
  3. Personal experiences and media significantly impact the examples that come to mind, affecting our perceptions and decision-making processes. Being aware of this bias is key to making more balanced judgments.

Useful Utility: Consequences (Part 1)

reedmolbak • 19 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Consequentialism focuses on the outcomes of actions rather than the actions themselves
  2. Utilitarianism's core concept is that decisions should be made based on consequences and what's best for achieving goals
  3. Ethical decisions often benefit from using a consequentialist approach, considering outcomes and consequences over abstract ethical theories

What We Talk About When We Talk About AI

Center for Veb Account Research Newsletter • 3 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Decision-making
  1. AI is best understood as a set of decision‑making tools that 'satisfice' — they search for good‑enough solutions in complex models instead of finding perfect mathematical optima like operations research.
  2. AI tools expand a user or organization's administrative capacity by enabling new actions and complex modeling, but they can be brittle and depend heavily on training data and organizational process; the financial hype or stock valuations around AI are distinct from its practical usefulness.
  3. Intelligence and consciousness are not the same: systems can perform many cognitive tasks and even be 'general' in the sense of producing and using satisficing models without being conscious, so task performance alone doesn't imply subjective experience.

Book Review: “Smart Choices” 4/5

Poczwardowski Notes • 19 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
📚 Literature Decision-making
  1. Decision making is a skill that we learn through experience and not something we are born with.
  2. The book 'Smart Choices' provides a comprehensive guide to decision-making using the 'PrOACT' framework, covering problem, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and tradeoffs.
  3. The book emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between decisions and their outcomes, as a bad outcome does not always mean a bad decision was made.

Why model?

A Bit Gamey • 6 implied HN points • 09 Nov 25
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Models help us make sense of complex problems by simplifying reality and revealing important patterns. This way, we can avoid confusing distractions with the truth.
  2. Good models promote clear communication and shared understanding among teams, making it easier to work together towards goals.
  3. While models are not perfect, they can help us predict outcomes and shape actions, guiding us in decision-making processes.

LL #39 | Thriving in Complexity

The Leadership Lab • 59 implied HN points • 02 Oct 22
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Navigating complexity requires a multivariate approach, as simple stories and the need to be right can be traps. Success in complex situations demands attention to various key variables simultaneously.
  2. The Cynefin framework helps in understanding different environments and guides appropriate actions based on the level of predictability in each environment. It is crucial to align strategies with the complexity of the situation at hand.
  3. Effective leadership involves asking different questions, considering multiple perspectives, and seeing in systems. These habits aid in better addressing complexity and making informed decisions.

Challenge Network

Fish Food for Thought • 15 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. People often stick to their beliefs and avoid changing their minds, even when presented with new information. This can lead to bad decisions and problems in work and relationships.
  2. Building a 'challenge network' helps people get honest feedback and encourages them to rethink their ideas. Surrounding yourself with critics who care can prevent overconfidence and promote growth.
  3. For leaders, having a challenge network is crucial. It helps them stay humble, invites diverse perspectives, and ultimately leads to better decision-making in their teams.

Emotional Intelligence

Certo Modo • 39 implied HN points • 09 Feb 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Decision-making
  1. Emotional intelligence is crucial in the DevOps/SRE space for managing emotions, reasoning, and decision-making.
  2. Recognize and manage 'amygdala hijacks' in stressful situations at work to maintain clear thinking and avoid reactive behavior.
  3. Understanding emotions as information from others is important in social settings for effective communication and decision-making at work.

Can Morality Be Quantified?

The Grey Matter • 19 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Quantification in morality is a useful framework for decision-making, not a literal truth.
  2. Money is a valuable tool for quantification, but it has limitations in capturing all aspects of value.
  3. Quantification, like valuing a statistical human life, helps systemize decision-making, but it has practical limits and should be used as a tool wisely.

Gaia Network: An Illustrated Primer

Engineering Ideas • 19 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Decision-making
  1. The Gaia Network aims to improve science by making research more efficient and accountable.
  2. The Gaia Network can assist in funding science by providing quantitative impact metrics for awarding prizes and helping funders make informed decisions.
  3. Gaia Network serves as a distributed oracle for decision-making, aiding in a wide range of practical applications from farming operations to strategic planning and AI safety.

How to be an effective leader [StoryTime Saturdays]

Technology Made Simple • 59 implied HN points • 16 Oct 22
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. The article discusses insights from senior leaders in tech about decision-making skills and leadership abilities.
  2. It mentions the importance of learning about experiences, processes, and common motifs from successful leaders.
  3. The post is beneficial for developers aiming for career growth, managers seeking to enhance their skills, and those interested in high-level team dynamics.

Strong Opinions, Weakly Held

Pivotal • 152 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Strong opinions, weakly held is a powerful decision-making approach under incomplete information.
  2. Commit fully to your chosen path, but be open to changing direction if needed.
  3. Maximizing rate of learning is key - move quickly with strong opinions and adjust when necessary with weakly held beliefs.

Happy times ahead 🌈 — Optimism Bias

10x your mind • 79 implied HN points • 16 Jun 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Decision-making
  1. The optimism bias is when we tend to overestimate good things happening to us and underestimate bad things.
  2. Optimists tend to overestimate their abilities and the role of their capabilities in success, and they hate the feeling of not being in control.
  3. Understanding the optimism bias can help us make better decisions, stay motivated during tough times, and be more realistic about our plans.

Legislative procedure isn't really hard

Matt’s Five Points • 139 implied HN points • 08 Mar 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. Legislative procedures may seem confusing with all the jargon, but they're similar to everyday group decisions like a family deciding where to eat. Understanding the basic concepts makes it easier to follow.
  2. Procedures are necessary to prevent chaos in decision-making, as they help manage how discussions happen and ensure everyone's voice can be heard without fights breaking out.
  3. At their core, legislative processes boil down to three main questions: what to discuss, how long to discuss it, and how to change proposals. This structure is similar across many group settings, not just Congress.