The hottest Decision-making Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

Conspiracy? Or Incompetence?

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 39 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Conspiracy Incompetence Policy Making Decision-making Governance
  1. Hanlon's Razor suggests not attributing to malice what can be explained by incompetence, a reminder to consider human fallibility.
  2. The intention behind dismissing failures as basic ineptitude is often to maintain trust in the system and those in power.
  3. Whether actions are driven by conspiracy or incompetence, what truly matters is the impact of those actions and the need for accountability.

p < 0.05 considered harmful

Simplicity is SOTA • 122 HN points • 10 Apr 23
🔬 Science Experimentation Statistical Analysis Decision-making Tech industry
  1. The standard use of p < 0.05 as a threshold in experiment analysis may not be as useful as commonly believed.
  2. The choice of p < 0.05 as a significance level in experiments is a default that was set nearly a century ago.
  3. In the tech industry, where the goal is to find real product improvements, the risk of false negatives should also be carefully considered, not just false positives.

Randomization maximalism

inexactscience • 39 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23
🔬 Science Research Methods Data Analysis Decision-making Experimental Design
  1. Relying only on randomized experiments can be limiting. It's important to consider all types of evidence based on their quality.
  2. Not every decision needs a complex A/B test; sometimes simpler data or even gut feelings are enough.
  3. We should weigh the cost of getting reliable data against the value it provides. For some choices, high-quality data is a must, but for others, less rigorous information can do the job.

Book Review: “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke 4/5

Poczwardowski Notes • 19 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
📚 Literature Book Reviews Decision-making Personal Growth
  1. Luck and randomness are significant factors in our lives and books that help in understanding this are valuable reads.
  2. Decisions should be separate from outcomes, and tools like backcasting and premortems can aid in making smarter choices.
  3. The book emphasizes the importance of considering the consequences of decisions in the short term, medium term, and long term through the 10-10-10 rule.

Off the top of my head 💭 — Availability bias

10x your mind • 99 implied HN points • 23 Jun 22
🔬 Science Psychology Media Investing Decision-making Research
  1. The availability bias influences decision-making by making us rely on easy, quick examples that come to mind, rather than considering a full range of options.
  2. People tend to overestimate their own contributions while underestimating others'. Understanding this bias can help in recognizing and diffusing tension in teamwork.
  3. Personal experiences and media significantly impact the examples that come to mind, affecting our perceptions and decision-making processes. Being aware of this bias is key to making more balanced judgments.
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Useful Utility: Consequences (Part 1)

reedmolbak • 19 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
📖 Philosophy Ethics Decision-making Consequentialism Utilitarianism
  1. Consequentialism focuses on the outcomes of actions rather than the actions themselves
  2. Utilitarianism's core concept is that decisions should be made based on consequences and what's best for achieving goals
  3. Ethical decisions often benefit from using a consequentialist approach, considering outcomes and consequences over abstract ethical theories

Book Review: “Smart Choices” 4/5

Poczwardowski Notes • 19 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
📚 Literature Book review Decision-making Self-help
  1. Decision making is a skill that we learn through experience and not something we are born with.
  2. The book 'Smart Choices' provides a comprehensive guide to decision-making using the 'PrOACT' framework, covering problem, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and tradeoffs.
  3. The book emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between decisions and their outcomes, as a bad outcome does not always mean a bad decision was made.

Resisting Deterministic Thinking

Data: Made Not Found (by danah) • 145 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
🕹 Technology AI Future Innovation Tech Ethics Decision-making
  1. Deterministic thinking can lead to polarization and distrust in discussions about the future.
  2. Embracing probabilistic thinking is essential for understanding how technologies shape different possible futures.
  3. Projectories can be both beneficial and detrimental, highlighting the need for more nuanced and reflexive thinking about the impacts of technology.

LL #39 | Thriving in Complexity

The Leadership Lab • 59 implied HN points • 02 Oct 22
💼 Business Leadership Complexity Decision-making Change Management Entrepreneurship
  1. Navigating complexity requires a multivariate approach, as simple stories and the need to be right can be traps. Success in complex situations demands attention to various key variables simultaneously.
  2. The Cynefin framework helps in understanding different environments and guides appropriate actions based on the level of predictability in each environment. It is crucial to align strategies with the complexity of the situation at hand.
  3. Effective leadership involves asking different questions, considering multiple perspectives, and seeing in systems. These habits aid in better addressing complexity and making informed decisions.

Emotional Intelligence

Certo Modo • 39 implied HN points • 09 Feb 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Emotional Intelligence Stress management Decision-making
  1. Emotional intelligence is crucial in the DevOps/SRE space for managing emotions, reasoning, and decision-making.
  2. Recognize and manage 'amygdala hijacks' in stressful situations at work to maintain clear thinking and avoid reactive behavior.
  3. Understanding emotions as information from others is important in social settings for effective communication and decision-making at work.

The Paradox of Choice

Integrity Talk • 99 implied HN points • 29 Mar 23
📖 Philosophy Decision-making Self-reflection
  1. Personal goals have evolved along with societal changes and technologies.
  2. Despite a wide array of choices, human motives for pursuing goals remain consistent over time.
  3. Excessive choices can lead to difficulty in decision-making and a tendency to prioritize social desirability over personal values.

Can Morality Be Quantified?

The Grey Matter • 19 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
📖 Philosophy Morality Ethics Decision-making Values
  1. Quantification in morality is a useful framework for decision-making, not a literal truth.
  2. Money is a valuable tool for quantification, but it has limitations in capturing all aspects of value.
  3. Quantification, like valuing a statistical human life, helps systemize decision-making, but it has practical limits and should be used as a tool wisely.

Gaia Network: An Illustrated Primer

Engineering Ideas • 19 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Research Decision-making AI safety
  1. The Gaia Network aims to improve science by making research more efficient and accountable.
  2. The Gaia Network can assist in funding science by providing quantitative impact metrics for awarding prizes and helping funders make informed decisions.
  3. Gaia Network serves as a distributed oracle for decision-making, aiding in a wide range of practical applications from farming operations to strategic planning and AI safety.

How to be an effective leader [StoryTime Saturdays]

Technology Made Simple • 59 implied HN points • 16 Oct 22
💼 Business Leadership Technology Management Decision-making Corporate culture
  1. The article discusses insights from senior leaders in tech about decision-making skills and leadership abilities.
  2. It mentions the importance of learning about experiences, processes, and common motifs from successful leaders.
  3. The post is beneficial for developers aiming for career growth, managers seeking to enhance their skills, and those interested in high-level team dynamics.

Happy times ahead 🌈 — Optimism Bias

10x your mind • 79 implied HN points • 16 Jun 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Psychology Self-Improvement Decision-making Wellness
  1. The optimism bias is when we tend to overestimate good things happening to us and underestimate bad things.
  2. Optimists tend to overestimate their abilities and the role of their capabilities in success, and they hate the feeling of not being in control.
  3. Understanding the optimism bias can help us make better decisions, stay motivated during tough times, and be more realistic about our plans.

Legislative procedure isn't really hard

Matt’s Five Points • 139 implied HN points • 08 Mar 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Congress Decision-making Public Policy
  1. Legislative procedures may seem confusing with all the jargon, but they're similar to everyday group decisions like a family deciding where to eat. Understanding the basic concepts makes it easier to follow.
  2. Procedures are necessary to prevent chaos in decision-making, as they help manage how discussions happen and ensure everyone's voice can be heard without fights breaking out.
  3. At their core, legislative processes boil down to three main questions: what to discuss, how long to discuss it, and how to change proposals. This structure is similar across many group settings, not just Congress.

Never Cancel Your Score

Metarational • 39 implied HN points • 20 Feb 23
🚌 Education Standardized Testing Decision-making
  1. Consider carefully before canceling a test score; a canceled score might indicate a lower result than what you truly achieved.
  2. The reasoning behind deciding to cancel scores can become complex, especially when assumptions about the perception of reasonability are involved.
  3. The decision-making process on whether to cancel a test score can be influenced by hidden assumptions and levels of metaknowledge.

Smart people cooperate

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Cooperation Decision-making Game Theory Policy
  1. Smarter people tend to learn and adjust their behavior more quickly when playing strategic games, which often leads to better outcomes for them.
  2. High IQ individuals are more likely to cooperate with others they perceive to be intelligent, benefiting both parties in the long run.
  3. Cooperation is generally more effective than competition in most situations, as working together often leads to better results for everyone involved.

Do the more rare thing

Sunday Letters • 79 implied HN points • 09 Oct 22
📖 Philosophy Decision-making Regret Choices Values
  1. When faced with tough decisions, you can simplify by ranking factors like academics or location. This helps you narrow down your choices.
  2. If two options seem equal, consider choosing the rarer one. It's often harder to get and might be better for you in the long run.
  3. Choosing something rare can protect you from regret. It makes you less likely to change your mind later since you might not have that option again.

Asking the Right Questions

Equal Ventures • 138 implied HN points • 29 Jun 21
💼 Business Venture Capital Decision-making
  1. In the world of venture capital, it's essential to differentiate between 'information gathering' and 'conviction building.'
  2. Conviction building involves asking the right questions that focus on the core aspects that truly matter for investment.
  3. Efficiency in the investment process is key; asking the right questions saves time and streamlines decision-making.

How to feel more certain in your strategic decisions

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 19 implied HN points • 14 Nov 23
💼 Business Strategy Decision-making Leadership Management Risk Assessment
  1. Look at past examples to help understand new situations. Historical contexts can give insights that make tough decisions easier.
  2. Adjust the reward system to make the risks of wrong decisions feel less daunting. This allows for more exploration without the fear of huge penalties.
  3. Use anonymous voting to find out what people really think. This can reveal hidden concerns that might not come up in open discussions.

Why companies (like Nike or Starbucks) make good or bad decisions

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 19 implied HN points • 31 Oct 23
💼 Business Strategy Management Decision-making Corporate culture Organizational Behavior
  1. Words like strategy and culture are losing their meaning in companies, making it hard to make clear decisions.
  2. Starbucks' mission statement is seen as too vague and fluffy, which can lead to confusion about their goals.
  3. Nike focuses on marathon world records because it emphasizes performance and achievement, aligning with their brand values.

Why real change feels weird, unfamiliar and wrong

Thinking Out Loud • 31 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
📖 Philosophy Change Awareness Decision-making
  1. Familiarity can hold us back from changing for the better, as what feels right and natural may not always be the most constructive choice.
  2. Stepping into new and unfamiliar territories can feel uncomfortable and even wrong, but it's often a sign of growth and progress.
  3. It's important to distinguish between just feeling unfamiliar, which can lead to positive change, and feeling actually bad, which should be avoided.

How Much Data Is Too Much?

Build To Scale • 19 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💼 Business Metrics Decision-making Analytics Culture
  1. Focus on a small set of key metrics at the executive level to avoid conflicting views and promote progress.
  2. Be cautious of over-analyzing data and creating a culture where analysis overshadows taking necessary actions.
  3. For startups, while revenue predictability is important, it's natural to experience volatility, especially in early stages.

Are you too tired to make the right decisions? [Growth Needle™]

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 19 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
💼 Business Decision-making Mental health Problem Solving Productivity Personal Development
  1. Your mental state is really important when making decisions. If you're stressed or tired, it's harder to think clearly and make good choices.
  2. Finding 'Domino Decisions' can help you focus on what actions will make the biggest impact. It's about identifying the small steps that lead to bigger changes.
  3. To solve problems effectively, it's essential to find the root causes. Just treating symptoms won't fix issues in the long run.

On the Quality of Things

NonTrivial • 19 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
🍲 Food & Drink Quality Ingredients Decision-making
  1. Quality is important in both consumption and creation, but assessing quality in consumed items can be challenging as it is determined upfront.
  2. Defining quality involves considering an object's ability to solve the problem it was created for, with high quality objects more likely to maintain their category membership over time.
  3. Assessing quality in objects involves looking at their ingredients or components, with fewer ingredients often indicating higher quality, but also considering the heterogeneity of the ingredients in the context of the problem being solved.

Part 2: What goes wrong when business, finance, data, and technology worlds collide?

The Data Score • 19 implied HN points • 16 Aug 23
💼 Business Finance Data Technology Communication Decision-making
  1. Silos and problems in business, finance, data, and technology worlds are mostly self-contained and are becoming more complex over time
  2. Challenges arise when experts talk past each other, fall into the 'smartest person in the room' syndrome, and fear failure in collaborative projects
  3. Successful collaboration requires effective communication, empathy, and psychological safety to navigate jargon, unstated motivations, and pressure of high stakes

Stop thinking and go to market

Nate is Learning • 19 implied HN points • 14 Jun 23
💼 Business Market Analysis Product Development Sales Decision-making Entrepreneurship
  1. When testing new markets, go straight to market with your offer instead of wasting time on research.
  2. Going to market quickly gives you real-time feedback, helps you make money, and uncovers the truth about product-market fit.
  3. By engaging real buyers, you will shorten your learning curve, spend less money, and make sales in the process.

The fallacy of mission, vision and values

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 19 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
💼 Business Corporate strategy Organizational Behavior Leadership Strategic Planning Decision-making
  1. Mission statements should provide clear direction but often don't help in day-to-day decisions. It's important to make them practical for true guidance.
  2. Vision is seen as a longer-term aspiration that provides motivation. But it needs to be clear so everyone knows what they are working towards.
  3. Values should guide behavior and decision-making within an organization. Instead of being vague, they should be specific and actionable to be effective.

How products exploit our biases

Gentle Nudge • 2 HN points • 19 Jun 24
💼 Business Consumer behavior Psychology Marketing Sales Decision-making
  1. Biases are judgments with little or no logical rationale behind them, affecting our decisions despite lacking justification.
  2. Biases are ideal tools for marketing as they are often subconscious and common among people, making them effective for a wide range of individuals.
  3. Marketing strategies exploit biases like decision fatigue, scarcity bias, and anchoring effect to influence consumer decisions and drive sales.