The hottest Forecasting Substack posts right now

The Russian oil industry is facing many challenges and uncertainties for the next decade.
Some predict a collapse similar to what happened in Iran and Venezuela, while others believe past crises have made the industry stronger.
There is complexity and resilience in the Russian oil industry that both insiders and outsiders may be underestimating.

A new $5,000 prize is added to the Salem Center/CSPI Forecasting Tournament to encourage more participation.
The prize will go to the person with the greatest percentage increase in their portfolio value by the end of the tournament.
Various markets on global events and economic forecasts are also discussed in the tournament.

Forecasting requires a balance of analysis, reasoning, and intuition.
Ask clear, quantifiable questions when making forecasts.
Consider historical base rates and break down questions to improve forecast accuracy.

Enrollment in SFUSD is down by almost 4,000 students (7.6%) since before the pandemic.
Charter schools overall saw a 5.8% decrease in enrollment, with variations among individual schools.
Cohort survival rates have recovered since the pandemic, but future enrollment projections for SFUSD are challenging due to declining birth rates and migration trends.

Exploring counterfactual scenarios helps forecast future trends by imagining a world without specific factors like large language models (LLMs).
Using the "outside view" involves making predictions based on broader trends and historical data rather than focusing on specific instances.
Monte Carlo simulations provide an empirically-grounded view by generating random future scenarios based on historical changes, aiding in predicting potential outcomes.

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Consider the reasons behind choosing programming languages like Go over Rust, and how they impact problem-solving strategies.
Explore innovative approaches like decoder-only foundation models for time-series forecasting to achieve high performance with less complexity.
Reflect on the impact of intentional choices on software development, understanding tools like TLA+ for formal method and the importance of thoughtful deployment automation.

Wall Street analysts have consistently missed S&P 500 year-end targets by an average of 15.7% from 2018 to 2023.
It's hard for even the most renowned financial firms to predict exact stock market values, showing the importance of personal research.
Despite sophisticated analysis, Wall Street analysts often get S&P 500 projections wrong, emphasizing the value of independent thinking in investment decisions.