The hottest Investments Substack posts right now

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Why I took the job of Head of Infinite Media at O'Shaughnessy Ventures! (OSV) 💡

Liberty’s Highlights • 1022 implied HN points • 27 Apr 23
💼 Business Media Venture Capital Creativity Investments Podcasts
  1. Newsletter and podcast by the author will continue but may have a more variable publishing schedule
  2. Author joined OSV due to alignment with values and desire to have greater impact with help from others
  3. OSV supports various creative ventures, including media platforms like podcasts, newsletters, and more
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World Yields are Inverting: Why it Matters

The Informationist • 982 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Yield curve inversions can predict recessions, with the US and other G7 countries experiencing this phenomenon.
  2. G7 Treasury yields show inversion trends, indicating economic slowdowns and potential recessions in various countries.
  3. Italy and Japan have unique yield curve situations, with issues like high risk premiums for Italy and Japan's unique economic conditions.

Are TIPS and I-Bonds Good Investments?

The Informationist • 963 implied HN points • 28 May 23
💰 Finance Investments Bonds Inflation Government Assets
  1. TIPS are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities that protect investors from inflation by adjusting principal based on changes in CPI.
  2. I-Bonds are similar to TIPS in protecting from inflation, but have fixed rates and are not tradable in the secondary market.
  3. Both TIPS and I-Bonds are highly dependent on CPI for pricing and may not offer positive real rates of return in the real world.

Top Links 557 Inflation worries and the US bond market. Russian oil mega merger. Van Gogh & the art of dying.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Bonds Oil
  1. Inflation concerns are becoming a big issue again for the US bond market. This can affect interest rates and borrowing costs for everyone.
  2. There is a significant merger happening in the Russian oil sector. This might change the landscape of oil supply and prices globally.
  3. Van Gogh's life and art are being explored in a new way, touching on themes of mortality and creativity. His work continues to inspire deep reflections on life and death.

Top Links 547 America's huge trade deficit. Hedge funds bet against green. Bout & the Houthis & the grate (sic) cheese robbery.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Trade Investments Economy Hedge Funds Deficits
  1. America's trade deficit widened significantly in September, which means the country is buying way more from other countries than it's selling.
  2. Hedge funds are making big bets against green investments, which suggests they believe these investments won't perform well in the future.
  3. There was a strange robbery involving 'grate cheese' and the Houthis, showing how unusual events can grab attention in the news.

Correction: 2024 Cybersecurity Investments hit $16.1 Billion!

The Security Industry • 25 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Investments Data Analysis Market Trends Business Growth
  1. In 2024, investments in cybersecurity reached an impressive $16.1 billion, which is a big jump of 60% from the previous year.
  2. A total of 432 cybersecurity companies received funding, with many rounds exceeding $100 million, showing strong interest in the industry.
  3. Looking ahead, experts believe that funding in 2025 could surpass 2024, indicating a growing demand for tech and security services.

Top Links 538 The rise of options. "Little pipes" and "little fires". THE banana skirt & the Apple-Nike connection.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Commodities Stock Options
  1. The rise of options trading is becoming a big trend in the market. It's important to understand how this affects investments.
  2. The phrase 'little pipes and little fires' suggests small things can have big impacts. It's a reminder that minor issues can escalate quickly.
  3. There’s an interesting connection between brands like Apple and Nike, showing how different industries can influence each other.

Hub-and-Spoke Biotechs: Nimbus Therapeutics

The Century of Biology • 354 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💼 Business Biotech Pharmaceuticals Investments Corporate strategy Drug Development
  1. Nimbus Therapeutics uses a unique hub-and-spoke model to develop drugs. This lets them separate the main company from individual drug projects, so they can sell successful drugs while keeping the main business intact.
  2. The company focuses on computational drug discovery to make the process faster and cheaper. By using advanced technology, they can predict which drugs might succeed before doing expensive experiments.
  3. Nimbus has successfully sold several drug assets, demonstrating the effectiveness of their model. They show that a biotech can grow and make money while being flexible and innovative.

Marc Andreessen Joining Character.AI Board + Other Hot AI Fundraising Rounds Afoot

Newcomer • 727 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
💼 Business Tech startups Investments AI Summit Venture Capital
  1. Andreessen Horowitz won the investment round for Character.AI led by Marc Andreessen.
  2. Multiple hot AI fundraising rounds are happening, including investments in Perplexity AI and LangChain.
  3. Other notable investments include Sequoia leading an investment in Dust and Index backing a startup by David Schreiber.

Major Signals are flashing Code Red in the Shadow Banking System

The Dollar Endgame • 718 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Investments Regulation Economy Markets
  1. The reverse repo figures reaching $2 trillion signal a serious issue in the market, showing strains on the entire banking system from massive liquidity injections.
  2. Reverse repos in the shadow banking system allow entities like MMFs to act like banks but without the same regulations, functioning in an opaque, complex, and risky world.
  3. The increased usage of the Fed's RRP facility and rising award rates indicate collateral shortages within the system, leading to concerns about the stability of MMFs and potential risks in the financial system.

Inside Netflix's $150 Million Bet On Christmas Day NFL Games

Huddle Up • 31 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🎾 Sports NFL Media Viewership Analytics Investments
  1. Netflix is investing $150 million in NFL games on Christmas Day. This is a big move as they try to attract more viewers.
  2. NBA viewership has dropped a lot recently, down over 25% compared to last year. This decline is making people worry about the sport's popularity.
  3. Despite NBA's falling ratings, they signed a massive $76 billion media rights deal. This shows that there's still a strong market interest in basketball, even if viewership is down.

2023 Annual Report

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 479 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investments Performance Goals Lessons Learned Newsletter
  1. Achieved a return of 34.3% in 2023 compared to 24.1% for the S&P.
  2. Focused on refining the investment strategy, promoting Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) over Growth at Any Price (GAAP), and emphasizing value for long-term market-beating potential.
  3. Learned lessons such as avoiding blind dollar-cost averaging, seeking stocks with low expectations, and collaborating with others to improve quality and results.

Issue #1: Changing Greece

The Greek Analyst • 679 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Economic Development Legislation Investments Innovation
  1. Greece is seeing positive changes such as opening voting to its diaspora, a booming stock market, and substantial investments in startups and businesses.
  2. The maritime tech sector in Greece is experiencing growth, with acquisitions, expansions, and new investments indicating a promising future for the industry.
  3. The circular economy is becoming popular in Greece, with the launch of impact funds, international conferences, and government strategies focusing on sustainability.

Manchester United Finances Q1 2023/24

The Swiss Ramble • 373 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Sports Business Investments Economics Markets
  1. Manchester United announced financial results for Q1 2023/24, showing a pre-tax loss but increased revenue and profit on player sales.
  2. Revenue streams for Manchester United increased, particularly in match day, broadcasting, and commercial aspects.
  3. United's profit from player sales rose from £17m to £29m, attributed to the departure of certain players.

Market Overview: Spacetech Deals We Liked In 2023

Space Ambition • 379 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💼 Business Space Industry Investments Startups Technology Trends Market Analysis
  1. In 2023, there was a surge in funding for spacetech companies, especially in areas like commercial space stations and robotics. This shows that investors are excited about the future of space exploration and development.
  2. Debris removal and in-orbit servicing are gaining attention as important niches in spacetech. Many startups are exploring these areas, indicating a growing need for sustainable solutions in space.
  3. Despite competition in the space launch sector, several companies still secured significant investments. This suggests that there are still opportunities in launching services, but investors are cautious about long-term viability.

Quadrilemma

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 373 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Federal Reserve Policy
  1. The market outlook suggests it's time to increase exposure to cyclical sectors.
  2. Understanding the market implied policy path, earnings expectations, and the Fed's reaction function is crucial for making strategic investment decisions.
  3. A healthy broadening out in the market may require certain economic conditions to be met, like unemployment rates and average hourly earnings.

ServiceTitan files to go public, Substack-o-nomics and please don't scratch my Bakkt

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Venture Capital Public Companies
  1. ServiceTitan is planning to go public, targeting a large market in the trades with software and fintech services. This shows there's strong potential for growth in this essential industry.
  2. The company has attracted significant investment from top venture capital firms, indicating confidence in its business model and future profitability.
  3. Going public will benefit not only ServiceTitan but also the investors, providing them with returns after a long wait for exits.

The Return of the Rust Belt

The New Urban Order • 359 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate Economics Housing Markets Investments Climate change
  1. Cities in the Rust Belt like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Indianapolis are emerging as top housing markets for 2024, showing significant price appreciation.
  2. Contrary to popular belief, cities in the Midwest and Rust Belt are now becoming more attractive due to affordability compared to traditionally booming cities in the South and West.
  3. Factors like housing affordability, climate change, and government and private investments are influencing the resurgence of the Rust Belt cities in 2024.

Long Take: The craft of scaling fintechs beyond their niche -- analyzing Twitter, Bunq, and Goldman Sachs

The Fintech Blueprint • 589 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
💰 Finance Fintech Startups Market Analysis Business Growth Investments
  1. The craft of scaling fintechs involves understanding successful growth drivers and failures
  2. Successful business building requires targeting disruptive technologies to the right market with demand
  3. Goldman Sachs' exit from consumer business contrasts with neobanks like Bunq's profitability and growth in their niche

After Wall Street balks, Cigna calls off Humana merger and instead is set to buy back up to $11.3 billion of its shares in gift to investors

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 419 implied HN points • 11 Dec 23
💼 Business Healthcare Investments Mergers Stock Market Corporate strategy
  1. Cigna decided not to merge with Humana after Wall Street reacted negatively to the idea. Instead, they will buy back $11.3 billion worth of their shares to please investors.
  2. Cigna's stock dropped significantly when the merger news broke but soared back up after the buyback announcement. This shows how much Wall Street values quick returns over company growth strategies.
  3. The share buyback won't help improve healthcare access or quality for Cigna's customers. It's mainly a move to boost stock prices and please shareholders.

Narrative Oversaturation

Superfluid • 106 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Tech news AI Investments Social media Startup Culture
  1. There's too much talk on popular topics right now, making it hard to tell what's real and what's just noise. Everyone seems to have their own strong opinion that might not really match their true beliefs.
  2. Investors often change their views based on their financial interests. This leads to a confusing situation where opinions are driven more by money than by true conviction.
  3. The current environment makes it difficult for genuine ideas to stand out, as people chase after viral opinions instead of focusing on meaningful discussions.

In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Risk management Economic Indicators Corporate Finance
  1. Risk-free investments aren't always truly safe, especially during financial crises. Events like the 2008 crisis showed that even government bonds can carry risk.
  2. Inflation and real interest rates play a big role in determining risk-free rates, meaning they can change based on economic conditions. A higher expected inflation usually leads to higher risk-free rates.
  3. The trust in governments to honor their debt has declined over time, leading to uncertainty about using government bonds as risk-free investments. This loss of trust makes it essential to reassess what we consider safe investments.

dYdX v4

DeFi Education • 419 implied HN points • 25 Nov 23
🔮 Crypto Exchanges Investments Regulations Technology Market Trends
  1. The founders of major crypto exchanges like Binance and FTX are now convicted felons, highlighting the risks in the industry. It's important to be cautious when engaging with crypto platforms.
  2. Putting your crypto in third-party custody can be dangerous. It defeats the purpose of holding your assets securely on your own.
  3. DeFi education is crucial to understand the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency and to navigate it safely. Staying informed helps protect your investments.

Long Take: How Wise disrupted $150T of Cross-Border Payments and earns $1B in revenue

The Fintech Blueprint • 511 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
💰 Finance Payments Valuations Stablecoins DeFi Investments
  1. Wise disrupted the costly traditional cross-border payment system by using a peer-to-peer platform and offering transparent, low fees.
  2. The company earned $1.2B in revenue in 2021 with a significant portion coming from its margin on FX transfers.
  3. Wise's growth and profitability are driven by its innovative approach to simplifying and optimizing cross-border transactions.

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY’S TOBACCO HISTORY

Reflections on "Going Down Tobacco Road" and Investing • 530 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investments Market Analysis Bonds Financial risk
  1. Warren Buffett invested in tobacco businesses like R.J. Reynolds, showing a historical investment pattern.
  2. Buffett sold his R.J. Reynolds stock in 1984, missing out on higher returns, showcasing his investment strategy.
  3. Buffett made a successful investment in RJR Nabisco bonds in 1989, demonstrating his keen awareness of financial risks and rewards.