The hottest Investments Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail

Mule’s Musings • 969 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💼 Business Investments
  1. The Intel board is seen as unqualified, with many members lacking the necessary semiconductor experience. This has likely contributed to the company's ongoing struggles.
  2. Pat Gelsinger, the former CEO, was fired despite being technically skilled and wanting to help the company. His optimistic approach conflicted with the board's short-term focus.
  3. The board's focus on maximizing shareholder value might lead to harmful decisions like breaking up the company, which could hurt its long-term prospects and impact the industry and U.S. competitiveness.

Quadrilemma

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 373 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investments
  1. The market outlook suggests it's time to increase exposure to cyclical sectors.
  2. Understanding the market implied policy path, earnings expectations, and the Fed's reaction function is crucial for making strategic investment decisions.
  3. A healthy broadening out in the market may require certain economic conditions to be met, like unemployment rates and average hourly earnings.

AI and GDP: The Caplan-Karnofsky Bet

In My Tribe • 273 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💼 Business Investments
  1. Bryan Caplan's bet on GDP and AI is unique because it involves a lot of uncertainty. Usually, he picks safer bets, but AI is unpredictable.
  2. The time frame of 20 years is significant; advancements might happen faster due to modern communication. This may lead to AI being adopted more quickly than expected.
  3. If the GDP drops significantly, it might be due to factors like war or disasters, rather than AI. And for GDP to rise dramatically, we need breakthroughs in education, healthcare, or robotics.

Test Drive: Is BYD as Good as Tesla?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 245 implied HN points • 12 Aug 25
💼 Business Investments
  1. BYD, a Chinese automaker, is growing quickly in the electric vehicle market but Tesla still leads for now.
  2. BYD is expected to sell around five million vehicles this year, which is significantly more than Tesla's sales.
  3. Many Americans may not know much about BYD cars, but they are performing well and improving rapidly.

The Return of the Rust Belt

The New Urban Order • 359 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💼 Business Investments
  1. Cities in the Rust Belt like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Indianapolis are emerging as top housing markets for 2024, showing significant price appreciation.
  2. Contrary to popular belief, cities in the Midwest and Rust Belt are now becoming more attractive due to affordability compared to traditionally booming cities in the South and West.
  3. Factors like housing affordability, climate change, and government and private investments are influencing the resurgence of the Rust Belt cities in 2024.
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Long Take: The craft of scaling fintechs beyond their niche -- analyzing Twitter, Bunq, and Goldman Sachs

The Fintech Blueprint • 589 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. The craft of scaling fintechs involves understanding successful growth drivers and failures
  2. Successful business building requires targeting disruptive technologies to the right market with demand
  3. Goldman Sachs' exit from consumer business contrasts with neobanks like Bunq's profitability and growth in their niche

After Wall Street balks, Cigna calls off Humana merger and instead is set to buy back up to $11.3 billion of its shares in gift to investors

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 419 implied HN points • 11 Dec 23
💼 Business Investments
  1. Cigna decided not to merge with Humana after Wall Street reacted negatively to the idea. Instead, they will buy back $11.3 billion worth of their shares to please investors.
  2. Cigna's stock dropped significantly when the merger news broke but soared back up after the buyback announcement. This shows how much Wall Street values quick returns over company growth strategies.
  3. The share buyback won't help improve healthcare access or quality for Cigna's customers. It's mainly a move to boost stock prices and please shareholders.

Top Links 772 Private equity polarizes. South Africa's growth chances dim & the Holy Alliance as "steampunk Terminator".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Private equity is causing more division among investors. Some big firms are sticking to traditional methods, while others are trying out new strategies with insurance.
  2. South Africa's chance for economic growth is looking weaker. This raises concerns about the future for jobs and investments in the country.
  3. The topic of the 'Holy Alliance' compares it to a 'steampunk Terminator'. This likely reflects complex interactions between various powers in a rapidly changing world.

In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Risk-free investments aren't always truly safe, especially during financial crises. Events like the 2008 crisis showed that even government bonds can carry risk.
  2. Inflation and real interest rates play a big role in determining risk-free rates, meaning they can change based on economic conditions. A higher expected inflation usually leads to higher risk-free rates.
  3. The trust in governments to honor their debt has declined over time, leading to uncertainty about using government bonds as risk-free investments. This loss of trust makes it essential to reassess what we consider safe investments.

dYdX v4

DeFi Education • 419 implied HN points • 25 Nov 23
🔮 Crypto Investments
  1. The founders of major crypto exchanges like Binance and FTX are now convicted felons, highlighting the risks in the industry. It's important to be cautious when engaging with crypto platforms.
  2. Putting your crypto in third-party custody can be dangerous. It defeats the purpose of holding your assets securely on your own.
  3. DeFi education is crucial to understand the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency and to navigate it safely. Staying informed helps protect your investments.

Long Take: How Wise disrupted $150T of Cross-Border Payments and earns $1B in revenue

The Fintech Blueprint • 511 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Wise disrupted the costly traditional cross-border payment system by using a peer-to-peer platform and offering transparent, low fees.
  2. The company earned $1.2B in revenue in 2021 with a significant portion coming from its margin on FX transfers.
  3. Wise's growth and profitability are driven by its innovative approach to simplifying and optimizing cross-border transactions.

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY’S TOBACCO HISTORY

Reflections on "Going Down Tobacco Road" and Investing • 530 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Warren Buffett invested in tobacco businesses like R.J. Reynolds, showing a historical investment pattern.
  2. Buffett sold his R.J. Reynolds stock in 1984, missing out on higher returns, showcasing his investment strategy.
  3. Buffett made a successful investment in RJR Nabisco bonds in 1989, demonstrating his keen awareness of financial risks and rewards.

"Turbocharged"

TSOH Investment Research Service • 530 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
💼 Business Investments
  1. Walt Disney's Disneyland transformed entertainment with its creative content
  2. Disney Parks & Resorts faced challenges after 9/11 but rebounded with increased free cash flow
  3. CEO Michael Eisner's strategy of reducing capital expenditures led to higher profitability

Thinking in N not T

moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids • 314 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investments
  1. When analyzing data, consider thinking in terms of the number of unique data points (N) rather than the total number of observations (T).
  2. Samples drawn from the same regime reduce the effective number of data points, impacting the reliability of quantitative analysis.
  3. Account for autocorrelation in data to avoid biases in estimating return volatilities and risk, ensuring better comparisons across different investments.

📊 The largest public companies in Africa and the world

Afridigest • 27 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
💼 Business Investments
  1. The largest public companies in early 2026 are led by semiconductor and tech giants like NVIDIA, TSMC, and ASML, while banks and big e‑commerce firms top other regions.
  2. Africa’s biggest listed company is Naspers (~$52B), and much of its value comes from overseas investments (notably a Tencent stake) rather than building local infrastructure.
  3. By contrast, Mercado Libre (~$111B) grew by creating Latin America’s e‑commerce and fintech infrastructure, highlighting the open question of whether African markets can yet produce a similar homegrown mega‑cap.

Brad Setser Says Smart Things on Exorbitant Privilege Unearned & Earned

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 322 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. The dollar's power is not just a natural right; it relies on global faith in American institutions and returns. It's a constant balance that can shift quickly if trust is lost.
  2. Private investors have played a huge role in keeping investment flowing into the U.S., as they seek returns and perceived safety. This pattern has changed from reliance on central banks to a focus on individual investors.
  3. The stability of the dollar could be threatened by political issues within the U.S. If the legal and financial systems weaken, trust may fade and capital could flee quickly.

How Banks Fail

Confronting the Future • 511 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Banks can fail due to bad assets or a run on liabilities, which can often happen together.
  2. Be cautious with asset management, especially in rising interest rate environments and when extending in duration.
  3. Hot deposits can create volatility if depositors suddenly withdraw, impacting a bank's ability to meet obligations.

Mickelson's Major(s) Point-Missing

The Quadrilateral • 491 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
🎾 Sports Investments
  1. There are signs of a potential collapse in the deal between LIV Golf and traditional golf organizations.
  2. PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan is involved in significant negotiations and discussions for the future of professional golf.
  3. Phil Mickelson has raised concerns about the denial of ranking points to LIV players and the potential impact on TV deals for the PGA Tour.

Breach of Trust: Decoding the US Banking Crisis of 2023

Musings on Markets • 839 implied HN points • 06 May 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. The recent banking crisis in the US started with the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which was unexpected and quick, leading to a series of other bank failures. This raises concerns about whether the crisis will impact the larger economy like the 2008 crisis did.
  2. Understanding what makes a bank strong or weak is essential. Key factors include how sticky their deposits are, the amount of equity they have to absorb losses, and the quality of their loan portfolios.
  3. The market's reaction to the crisis has been mixed, with larger banks holding up better than regional ones. However, the crisis may push more consolidation within the banking industry, affecting competition and overall bank profitability.

Stablecoin Wildcat-Bank Roulette: The Genius Act Gambles with America’s Money

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 292 implied HN points • 21 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Congress is considering allowing companies to create their own currencies through stablecoins, which could lead to financial chaos like what happened in the past.
  2. There are concerns that regulators may struggle to manage the many stablecoins that could flood the market, posing a risk to the economy.
  3. Instead of issuing more currencies, a better approach might be to adopt practices from the European Union to focus on reducing fees and helping consumers without overloading regulators.

This is a time publishers ought to be investing and exploring new territory vs. laying people off and hunkering down. So why are so few of the big companies doing that?

How to Glow in the Dark • 559 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💼 Business Investments
  1. This is a challenging time for publishers to invest and innovate, yet many big companies are not doing so.
  2. Major publishing companies are facing reduced earnings despite increased sales, leading to layoffs and cost-cutting measures.
  3. The industry's response to financial challenges has mainly involved squeezing employees and authors, rather than focusing on long-term growth and support.

Infographics: The Shadow Cash Market

Concoda • 313 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. The shadow cash market involves various types of private transactions that are not easily tracked or regulated. This means that a lot of money moves around without official oversight.
  2. Overall, the liquidity in this market can act like bonds, providing a kind of security and stability for those involved. It’s an alternative way to manage and access funds.
  3. Understanding this market is important as it has impacts on the economy. It helps people see how money flows in ways that aren’t always visible.

Paris Saint-Germain Finances 2021/22

The Swiss Ramble • 471 implied HN points • 15 May 23
🎾 Sports Investments
  1. Paris Saint-Germain's finances show a significant loss despite an increase in revenue and profit from player sales.
  2. The team experienced a substantial rise in operating expenses and faced challenges with compliance to UEFA's Financial Fair Play regulations.
  3. PSG's revenue improved mainly in commercial areas, but broadcasting revenue decreased due to poor Champions League performance and deferred income.

Private Equity Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 939 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Private equity firms invest in existing businesses to help them grow and become more profitable, sharing in the profits as a result. It's like giving your friend's business a boost with your investment.
  2. These firms raise money from wealthy individuals, pension funds, charities, and banks to create a fund for their investments. This means they pool money from different sources to make bigger investments.
  3. Private equity can create jobs and drive economic growth, but it also has a reputation for being tough on company management and workers during operational changes. Understanding its impact helps you see how it can touch everyone's life.

The Bear Cave #258

The Bear Cave • 583 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Recent reports by researchers highlighted concerns about companies like AppLovin and Construction Partners, suggesting they are facing serious revenue and operational issues.
  2. There have been notable executive resignations at companies such as Blue Bird Corp and Lanzatech Global, indicating potential instability within those organizations.
  3. The SEC released FOIA logs suggesting certain companies are under investigation, as many investors see this as a red flag about their business practices.

Mid-Year Crypto Outlook 2023

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
🔮 Crypto Investments
  1. 2023 has been a strong year for crypto, with the best first half for prices since 2019. Bitcoin is trading above $30,000, showing good market momentum.
  2. There is growing interest from major financial institutions, like the world's largest asset manager, seeking to offer Bitcoin ETFs. This could boost the legitimacy and adoption of crypto.
  3. The overall sentiment in the market is positive, but it's important to stay cautious and informed about potential future changes in regulations and market dynamics.

Spotlight: Alexandra Vidyuk - Founder @ Space Ambition & Venture Partner @ Aloniq

Space Ambition • 179 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Investments
  1. Alexandra Vidyuk switched from banking to spacetech because she wanted to follow her childhood dream of exploring space. She believes the space industry can help solve big problems like climate change.
  2. The space industry needs more people from different backgrounds to help it grow. It's not just about rockets; many skills can be applied in this field, making it accessible to more people.
  3. If someone wants to move into spacetech, they should start learning about it through books and courses. Connecting with industry professionals and thinking about how their existing skills can fit into this field is also important.

Spotlight: Bulent Altan - Founding Partner @ Alpine Space Ventures

Space Ambition • 319 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
💼 Business Investments
  1. Investing in space tech can help solve big problems on Earth, like climate change and disaster management. These technologies improve our lives and connect us better.
  2. When looking at start-ups, it's important to check if they have a good product-market fit and a strong team. A solid team with experience can really make a difference in succeeding.
  3. The future of space investments is bright, especially in satellite manufacturing. This area has a lot of potential and can help grow the whole space industry.

Top Links 777 Standout productivity. China bottoms out. AIDS deaths & the "Californian Ideology"

Chartbook • 257 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Standout productivity has been noted recently, showing impressive performance in various sectors.
  2. China's economy seems to have hit a low point, sparking discussions about its future trajectory.
  3. There are rising concerns over AIDS deaths, connected to the broader cultural ideas around the topic, often referred to as the 'Californian Ideology'.

The Definitive Guide to Bonds

Market Sentiment • 432 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Leverage in bond investments can work well but also lead to significant losses if market conditions change rapidly.
  2. Bond prices are impacted by interest rate movements, where older bonds may lose value with rate hikes.
  3. The choice between individual bonds and bond ETFs depends on factors like diversification needs, fees, and level of investment sophistication.

The Donkey Enterprise

The Greek Analyst • 279 implied HN points • 23 Dec 23
💼 Business Investments
  1. Successful businesses can thrive by embodying the traits of a 'Donkey Enterprise' - prioritizing self-preservation, building long-term institutional memory, fostering curiosity, focusing on strong foundations, valuing hard work, and maintaining a clear focus.
  2. Greece has made significant progress in digitization, economy, investments, tech startups, education, and R&D, demonstrating growth in various sectors and receiving international recognition.
  3. Greek individuals and companies have achieved notable success in various fields, such as winning international competitions, impacting AI technology, and contributing to the economy through acquisitions and advancements.

Hedging Inflation with Real Assets

In My Tribe • 622 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Investing in real assets like real estate, gold, and commodities can help protect against inflation. These assets are expected to appreciate more when inflation rises.
  2. Understanding profitability is key when investing. It combines rental income, appreciation, and interest rates to determine if an investment is worth it.
  3. Inflation-indexed bonds (like i-bonds) can be a good hedge but have limits on how much you can buy. They provide some safety against inflation, even though their performance can vary.

It’s Not About Me — That’s The Point

moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids • 235 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💼 Business Investments
  1. Focus on being altruistic and a positive presence in the world, putting in the work and solving real problems.
  2. Believe in yourself to become the best version of yourself, even when faced with doubts.
  3. In a competitive investment landscape, understanding the job's challenges and rewards can help determine if it's the right fit for you.