The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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You don’t bring me flowers, anymore

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 14 Feb 25
💼 Business Consumer Trends Market Analysis
  1. A lot of people in the US celebrate Valentine's Day, with 71% participating in some way. Many spend money to show love, which can feel less genuine when gifts are so expensive.
  2. The average American spends about $185 on Valentine's gifts, and this has increased over the years. People are generally spending more now than they did a decade ago.
  3. Interestingly, fewer people are buying flowers for Valentine's Day compared to the past. Instead, more people are spending on jewelry, which has become a popular gift choice.

Fear Not

The Better Letter • 511 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Personal Finance Economics
  1. Fear sells and makes money, driving many market predictions based on fear.
  2. Investors face fear daily, driven by narratives over data, making them susceptible to fear-mongering.
  3. Long-term investment is crucial; while fear may lead to short-term moves, the market trends upwards over time, favoring investment.

Data Update 5 for 2025: Profitability - The End Game for Business?

Musings on Markets • 479 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Corporate Finance Profitability Investment strategy Market Analysis
  1. Businesses should focus on profitability as their main goal, not just growth. It's important to make money to cover expenses and create value for the future.
  2. Measuring profitability can be tricky because different measures tell different stories about a company's health. Companies need to be compared properly to understand their true performance.
  3. Most companies struggle to earn profits that exceed their costs of capital, showing it can be tough to succeed in the business world today. Even in a competitive market, many companies fall short.

We're "On The Cusp" Of Another Inflationary Breakout

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Economic Trends Financial Policy
  1. Gold and silver did better than regular stocks in the last quarter, which is unusual. This could mean something important is happening in the market.
  2. Bitcoin had a fantastic year, showing that people are worried about money losing its value. It’s now a big part of some investment funds.
  3. The U.S. government is spending a lot, which helped the economy grow more than expected. But this could lead to inflation issues in the future.
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When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home prices in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas showed clear patterns before and after the 2008 housing crisis. They experienced a boom, then a downturn when lending tightened.
  2. During the crisis, low-tier home prices dropped more than high-tier prices. This happened because many poor families couldn't afford housing and had to move around or suffer from rising rents.
  3. Areas like Miami and Tampa had different dynamics, with more separation in low-tier prices before the crisis. They faced ongoing housing shortages, causing continual price increases even after the market correction.

Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Prices
  1. Housing inventory dropped a lot during the pandemic, hitting record lows. Even now, inventory is still not back to pre-pandemic levels.
  2. In 2024, there was a significant increase in housing inventory, which is a positive sign for the market. This increase could indicate stability in home prices as more homes become available.
  3. Monitoring housing inventory trends has been important in the past for predicting when home prices will rise or fall, making it a key factor to watch moving into 2025.

Overhead Costs vs. Marginal Costs

In My Tribe • 227 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Finance Management Market Analysis Business strategy
  1. Overhead costs are the ongoing expenses of running a business, while marginal costs are the expenses incurred by producing one additional unit.
  2. Many businesses today focus more on overhead costs because it's hard to measure the contribution of individuals in a team setting.
  3. Understanding these costs is important for making better decisions about managing a business.

NASDAQ:ARM is Comically Undervalued

Irrational Analysis • 159 implied HN points • 23 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Semiconductors Technology
  1. Irrational Analysis is heavily invested in the semiconductor industry, giving insights into the comical undervaluation of NASDAQ:ARM.
  2. Nvidia's massive demand for GB200 and Grace CPUs could have significant implications for ARM (LTD)'s value and future performance.
  3. Nvidia Grace CPUs might exceed sell-side expectations, potentially propelling ARM (LTD) value beyond current projections.

Good Intentions, Perverse Outcomes: The Impact of Impact Investing

Musings on Markets • 859 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance ESG Social Impact Market Analysis
  1. Impact investing aims to make money while helping society, but it can sometimes backfire. Sometimes the good intentions of investors lead to negative outcomes because their investments fail to create real change.
  2. There are three main methods of impact investing: inclusionary, exclusionary, and evangelist. Each has its strengths and weaknesses, but they all rely on understanding which companies truly contribute positively to society.
  3. Despite the money invested in green energy, our reliance on fossil fuels hasn't significantly decreased. It shows that while impact investing tries to solve societal problems, it might not be working as effectively as intended.

Replicating Buffett

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing Corporate Structure Market Analysis Financial Services Entrepreneurship
  1. Warren Buffett took control of a struggling company, Berkshire Hathaway, after realizing its potential value despite its problems. He initially bought shares to gain influence.
  2. Buffett's experience with Berkshire taught him important lessons about organizational structure and the value of permanent capital for investments.
  3. Now, investors like Bill Ackman are trying to create companies similar to Berkshire Hathaway, but it's hard to replicate its successful model because it takes time and patience.

Is private equity going to come to digital health’s rescue?

Second Opinion • 412 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Digital Health Private Equity Market Analysis Market Dynamics
  1. Private equity firms are hesitant to make deals in digital health due to post-pandemic fund performance and concerns about the current portfolio's growth potential.
  2. Many potential deals in digital health have complications, making private equity firms cautious and preferring to wait for better opportunities.
  3. Profitability is a key focus for private equity, leading to a scarcity of profitable companies in the health-tech sector and contributing to the hesitation in making investments.

[P] VYX: Checking Out in 2025? (Part 3)

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Economic Trends Business strategy Corporate changes
  1. James Kelly has become the new CEO, taking over from David Wilkinson. This change in leadership may lead to new strategies and directions for the company.
  2. The focus seems to be on developments in 2025, suggesting that there are important plans or changes expected in the near future.
  3. This information is part of a subscription model, indicating that there might be more in-depth content available for paying subscribers.

Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Strategies
  1. There's a discussion about housing trends, led by Mike Simonsen from Altos Research. It's important to know what's happening in the housing market right now.
  2. The video linked offers insights on various housing aspects. Watching it can help you understand current market conditions better.
  3. CalculatedRisk Newsletter is supported by its readers. Subscribing helps the creator continue sharing valuable information.

CEO of DeepSeek's parent, High-Flyer Quant, spoke in 2020

Pekingnology • 143 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Quantitative AI Market Analysis Emerging Markets
  1. High-Flyer Quant uses AI for its investment strategies. They rely on advanced models and lots of data to predict stock prices and make trades.
  2. The Chinese stock market is seen as less efficient, which gives AI-driven strategies a chance to find opportunities that traditional investing might miss. This leads to potential higher returns for the right strategies.
  3. As more institutions enter the market, competition will increase. High-Flyer focuses on research and development to stay ahead in this tough environment.

Bitcoin Rips To $48,000 & Debt Monetization Is On The Way: TBL Weekly #80

The Bitcoin Layer • 393 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin Federal Reserve Market Analysis
  1. Record-breaking first-month inflows for 9 new spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $31.6 billion in assets, driving bitcoin to highs above $48,000.
  2. With US Treasury facing funding needs leading to debt monetization surge, Fed liquidity could significantly increase over the coming months.
  3. The Fed might need to monetize Treasury debt due to lack of buyers and liquidity issues, potentially impacting financial market stability and global liquidity.

Oxford Nanopore Interim Results

ASeq Newsletter • 21 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💼 Business Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate News Tech Companies
  1. Oxford Nanopore reported total revenue of £183.0 million in 2024. This shows the company is generating significant income.
  2. The company’s performance is being compared to a steady growth rate of 12% from 2020 onward. This indicates they have been growing consistently.
  3. The interim trading update was released before a major presentation, highlighting its importance for investors and stakeholders. This kind of update can be crucial in informing decision-making.

Exchange Balances Finally Affected by Bitcoin ETF Inflows

Bitcoin Magazine Pro • 412 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Economy Investing Policy Market Analysis
  1. Bitcoin ETF inflows have been strong in January, reaching $1.3 billion in net inflows.
  2. Price reactions to ETF inflows have not been strong yet, but are expected to come.
  3. The recent FOMC decision had no change in policy, causing initial stock sell-offs, but stocks rebounded, and the macro thesis suggests potential recession signals.

Academy Discount is LIVE! (+ The Next Bull Run)

DeFi Education • 659 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
🔮 Crypto Investing Market Analysis Blockchain Decentralized Finance Cryptocurrency
  1. There is a $100 discount available for the DeFi Academy until November 9, 2023. This is a good chance for new members to join.
  2. Despite some ongoing challenges in the crypto market, there are signs of recovery and potential for a bull run. Staying informed and prepared can help capitalize on this.
  3. Building skills, capital, and the right mindset is essential for success in crypto. Focus on what you're good at and keep improving yourself.

The Emergence of Duck Curves in Europe

GEM Energy Analytics • 319 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Renewables Climate Policy Market Analysis
  1. Solar energy in Europe has grown a lot in recent years. By the end of 2024, solar power capacity will nearly double, helping to meet electricity needs.
  2. Duck curves are becoming more common, showing that solar energy creates cheaper electricity prices in the afternoon. This trend is seen in countries like Greece, Germany, and Spain.
  3. The impact of solar energy isn't just in Europe; places like Australia are seeing similar effects. As solar use increases, it changes the price dynamics in electricity markets.

Market Update

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 29 Oct 23
🔮 Crypto Blockchain Investing Market Analysis Regulation Technology
  1. Bitcoin's price surged dramatically, gaining 16% in just one day. This indicates strong investor interest and market volatility.
  2. The overall crypto market has seen significant growth, with Bitcoin doubling its value in the last 11 months. This reflects a positive trend in the cryptocurrency space.
  3. Speculation about a potential Bitcoin ETF approval is driving excitement and speculation among investors, suggesting the market is watching closely for regulatory news.

Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Risk Assessment Financial Data
  1. Interest rates are rising, affecting both stocks and bonds. This change can make it harder for investors to predict market movements.
  2. Only a few big tech companies are driving market gains, which shows the performance isn't shared evenly across all stocks. If you didn’t invest in those top companies, your returns might not be great.
  3. There are still uncertainties about inflation and the economy, making it hard to predict what will happen next. Investors continue to swing between hope and worry.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Economic Indicators Sales Data Market Analysis
  1. November home sales are expected to show a slight increase compared to October, with forecasts at 3.97 million annually. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. This marks the second year-over-year gain in home sales since July 2021, indicating a potential recovery in the market.
  3. The data will be released by the NAR on December 19th, offering insight into how the housing market is currently performing.

User Research Guide For Founders, Part 1: Getting Started

Elizabeth Laraki • 179 implied HN points • 25 Apr 24
💼 Business User Research Product Development Startups Entrepreneurship Market Analysis
  1. Set clear and specific research goals to know exactly what you want to learn from users.
  2. Choose the right research method, like interviews or usability studies, based on whether you need feedback on a concept or an existing product.
  3. Turn your research goals into specific questions that are easy for people to answer, making it easier to gather useful information.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 308 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Federal Reserve Economic Indicators
  1. The money market faced a tough quarter-end, but there were no serious problems reported. Most banks didn't heavily rely on the Fed's emergency funding options this time.
  2. A new measure called reserve demand elasticity (RDE) suggests that the banks currently have enough reserves. This means the Fed can keep interest rates stable for now.
  3. Funding pressures are growing, but they haven't reached a critical point. This signals that while banks feel some strain, they are managing for the time being.

If you get a takeover offer, fight

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💼 Business Investing Mergers Acquisitions Finance Market Analysis
  1. If a company gets a takeover offer, they should consider negotiating instead of accepting it right away. There's a good chance they can get a better deal.
  2. Research shows that most takeover deals do not fail and often result in the target company receiving more favorable terms. About 80% of modified deals end up giving more money to the selling company.
  3. Overall, companies approached for a takeover have a 94% chance of either keeping the original offer or getting a better one by negotiating.

AI is breadth-first, not depth-first

The AI Frontier • 99 implied HN points • 06 Jun 24
🕹 Technology AI Product Development Innovation Data Strategy Market Analysis
  1. AI works well across many tasks but struggles with the details. It can help with brainstorming or basic coding but doesn't replace expert-level understanding.
  2. When building AI products, think beyond one industry or function. There are opportunities where different jobs connect and can benefit from shared data.
  3. It's important to understand what experts want from your AI. They expect quality insights, so your AI should be ready to provide that next level of detail.

The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!

Musings on Markets • 759 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
💰 Finance Equity Investing Risk management Market Analysis Corporate Finance
  1. Equity risk premium (ERP) is the extra return investors expect from risky investments compared to risk-free ones. Understanding this helps investors make better decisions about stocks.
  2. Different methods to measure ERP can give very different results. It's important to understand why and how these estimates change over time.
  3. Using a consistent and logical approach to estimating ERP is crucial for making informed investment choices. Each method has its pros and cons, and what works best may depend on your investment goals.

Market Right Now Is "A Story Of Contrasts"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Trading Strategies Investment Advice Economic Trends Risk management
  1. The current market is unpredictable and may not be the best time to make forced trades.
  2. It's important to watch for short-term price jumps created by sentiment changes and market positioning.
  3. Relying on experienced traders for insights can be helpful, but always consult a financial advisor before making decisions.

Market Overview: Spacetech Deals We Liked In 2023

Space Ambition • 379 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💼 Business Space Industry Investments Startups Technology Trends Market Analysis
  1. In 2023, there was a surge in funding for spacetech companies, especially in areas like commercial space stations and robotics. This shows that investors are excited about the future of space exploration and development.
  2. Debris removal and in-orbit servicing are gaining attention as important niches in spacetech. Many startups are exploring these areas, indicating a growing need for sustainable solutions in space.
  3. Despite competition in the space launch sector, several companies still secured significant investments. This suggests that there are still opportunities in launching services, but investors are cautious about long-term viability.