The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

The VC Corner 📰 #9

The VC Corner • 259 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investment Trends Market Analysis AI Governance
  1. 38% of venture capitalists have stopped making deals in 2023. This shows a big change in the investment landscape.
  2. Successful exits for startups can lead to mixed feelings among founders and investors. It's a success, but it can also feel like losing something they built.
  3. There is a push for better governance in the artificial intelligence sector through an AI Governance Alliance. This aims to make AI use safer and more responsible.

Don't Just Survive - Win

DeFi Education • 399 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
🔮 Crypto Blockchain Investing Education Trading Market Analysis
  1. The DeFi Academy offers a structured way to learn about crypto and transform your approach from just surviving to winning in the market.
  2. Timing is essential in the crypto world; those who take action are more likely to succeed than those who hesitate.
  3. There's a limited opportunity to join the DeFi Academy at a discounted price, encouraging quick decision-making for those ready to engage.

October 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Market Analysis Sales trends
  1. New home sales have sharply decreased recently, which may be linked to high mortgage rates. This situation is causing a lot of homes to sit on the market longer.
  2. The increase in months of inventory suggests that buyers are hesitant or unable to purchase new homes right now. This might indicate a cooling off in the housing market.
  3. The article hints at changes in the housing market that could be significant. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions.
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WTF is going on at SuperMicro? (SMCI)

Mule’s Musings • 449 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Options
  1. An ongoing gamma squeeze at SuperMicro has led to a significant buying pressure, possibly due to high volumes of options expiring.
  2. The significant demand for shares due to in-the-money calls can lead to billions of dollars worth of shares needing to be accounted for.
  3. After the gamma squeeze peaks, there may be a period of share buying, but ultimately, there are expectations for SuperMicro's stock to stabilize and return to normal.

How Much Revenue Does AI Startup Sierra Need? $225M

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💼 Business Startups Venture Capital Tech Trends Market Analysis Revenue Models
  1. AI startups like Sierra are trying to improve customer service, which can be cheaper than hiring lots of workers. That's smart because AI can save money in the long run.
  2. The valuation of Sierra seems very high compared to its current revenue. This might mean they are setting themselves up for a tough future if they don't meet those big expectations.
  3. There's a sense that some investors are overestimating startups based on past successes, hoping they will grow quickly without enough proof. This approach can be risky for everyone involved.

Breach simulation is a complicated market

Frankly Speaking • 50 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Software Development Product Management Market Analysis User Experience
  1. The breach simulation market is confusing because companies market their products in different ways. It's hard to understand exactly what these tools are supposed to solve for security teams.
  2. Turning security services into products is challenging. Many customers prefer high-quality services rather than automated tools because they believe they catch more sophisticated attacks.
  3. For these simulation tools to succeed, they need to show clear benefits to businesses, like saving money or preventing incidents. Right now, many organizations view them as nice-to-have rather than essential.

Ampere Computing is probably dead.

Irrational Analysis • 79 implied HN points • 20 May 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Tech startups Competition Market Analysis
  1. Ampere Computing is likely facing challenges as most of their customers have transitioned to other solutions.
  2. Despite unique product advantages, Ampere Computing is struggling as customers are moving to alternatives in the market.
  3. Lack of transparency on technical details raises doubts about Ampere Computing's innovation and competitiveness in the semiconductor industry.

User Research Guide For Founders, Part 3: Run Sessions + Identify Insights

Elizabeth Laraki • 79 implied HN points • 17 May 24
💼 Business Startups User Research Product Development Market Analysis
  1. When running user research sessions, make sure to plan the logistics and keep the session length manageable. It's important to stick to your script while encouraging participants to share their thoughts during the session.
  2. After completing the sessions, document the findings by organizing feedback into themes. This will help you identify common issues and insights that can improve your product.
  3. Share the insights in a clear and concise format, highlighting major findings and prioritizing issues that need attention. This helps ensure everyone on your team understands the feedback and can work together on solutions.

Show Me The Money

Genuine Impact - Charting Finance, Investing & Tech • 412 implied HN points • 21 Jun 23
💰 Finance Wealth Distribution Market Analysis Investing Cryptocurrencies
  1. The total estimated money on earth is $633.88 trillion, including various forms like physical currency, digital money, stock market, real estate, and commodities.
  2. The wealth distribution is highly skewed, with 69% of the world's wealth being held by just seven countries, showing a significant wealth gap globally.
  3. Top 26 billionaires own more wealth than the poorest 3.8 billion people combined, highlighting the extreme wealth inequality in today's world.

Evolution Gaming

Business Breakdowns • 412 implied HN points • 05 Sep 23
💼 Business Finance Market Analysis Industry Analysis Business strategy Company Overview
  1. Evolution Gaming provides back-end services for online gambling games, focusing on live casino games and RNG games.
  2. The company's revenue model involves charging a fee based on operators' winnings, with a focus on high-quality customer experiences.
  3. Evolution is the market leader in live casino with significant global market share, and is expanding into RNG games for further growth opportunities.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In November, housing starts dropped to an annual rate of 1.289 million, marking a 1.8% decrease from October. The overall rate is also down 14.6% compared to November 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts saw a slight increase of 6.4% from October, while multi-family starts fell significantly by 27.6% year-over-year. This shows that the single-family housing market is performing better than multi-family units.
  3. Year-to-date, total housing starts are down 4.3%, but single-family starts are up 7.2%. Multi-family starts, however, have seen a decline of 30.1%, indicating a tough year for that segment of the market.

Follow Up to Case-Shiller & Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Data Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author analyzed different housing data like Case-Shiller and rent inflation. It's interesting to see how these data points relate to each other.
  2. There are components in the Erdmann Housing Tracker that provide extra insights on the housing market. Comparing these with other measurements helps to understand trends better.
  3. The analysis is not meant for academic purposes, but it's a fun exploration of the data. It shows how digging into numbers can reveal patterns.

L.E. Memo | The End of Thrift

Lewis Enterprises • 393 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💼 Business Finance Investing Economics Market Analysis Wealth Management
  1. Public markets offer an egalitarian opportunity for individuals to invest in top companies.
  2. Private capital is dominating the economy post-2000, offering advantages like less governance and disclosure.
  3. The growth of private equity has led to a decline in public market assets, impacting savers and increasing challenges for individual investors.

Quant Letter: January 2025, Week-1

The Parlour • 12 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Quantitative finance Portfolio Management Market Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. AI is being used in finance to help with investment decisions, but it might make the gap between experts and novices bigger.
  2. New research is exploring better ways to model financial risks and predict market movements using advanced tools, like machine learning.
  3. Legislative events can influence stock market performance, as seen when Congress is in session, which may lead to declines in equity values.

Space applications for large terrestrial markets - how I think about space investing

Intersections (by Filip) • 199 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💼 Business Investing Market Analysis Startups Revenue Generation
  1. Developing a strategy for investing in space focused on applications for large terrestrial markets can lead to stable and profitable enterprises with demanded products.
  2. The common upstream/downstream framework for space operations and investing might not be the most advantageous, instead consider where the customers and assets are located.
  3. When investing in space companies, consider the importance of having a diversified base of credible customers to ensure long-term stability and meaningful returns.

The Anti-Acc Revolution

Malt Liquidity • 13 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Market Analysis Regulations Corporate Governance
  1. The economy is facing serious issues and many people lack trust in institutions. There's a need for immediate change to prevent further decline.
  2. The relationship between major figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump could shape the future of technology and business. Their actions might determine which companies thrive or struggle.
  3. Current educational and financial systems are broken. There should be better pathways for young people to learn skills and contribute, rather than being overwhelmed by debt and unhelpful degrees.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 01 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Dividends Economic Trends
  1. The stock market often rises after hitting record highs, so there's less to worry about than some investors think. History shows the S&P usually has a positive return in the year after an all-time high.
  2. Many major companies are currently valued below their usual 5-year averages, meaning there might be good buying opportunities. It's worth looking at stocks like Amazon and JP Morgan as potential investments.
  3. Investing in dividend stocks is still important, but many options are becoming less attractive compared to bonds. Focusing on companies with lower dividend payout ratios can help mitigate risk.

[PQ] PLTK: Playing Bad (Governance) Odds

Nongaap Investing • 5 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate Governance Risk management Financial Strategy
  1. Bad governance can sometimes lead to unexpected investment opportunities. It means that when things look risky or poorly managed, there might be a chance for profit.
  2. Investors need to carefully assess the risks before jumping in. Just because something seems like a good deal doesn't mean it won't come with surprises.
  3. Understanding the company's governance and management style is important. Knowing how they operate can help you make better investment decisions.

What is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Dividends Market Analysis Portfolio Management
  1. A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) lets you invest in real estate without actually owning properties. You buy shares in a company that owns and manages real estate, earning money from the profits.
  2. REITs generally pay high dividends because they are required by law to return 90% of their taxable income to shareholders. This makes them appealing for income-focused investors.
  3. Investing in REITs gives you access to commercial real estate, offers liquidity like stocks, and can diversify your investment portfolio without the hassle of property management.

Portfolio Review - October 2023

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 359 implied HN points • 03 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The author discusses reducing their portfolio from 24 to 20 stocks by selling off positions in companies like SQ, DOCU, IIPR, and JNJ.
  2. They reinvested the proceeds into companies like AMZN, MELI, Adyen, and Evolution.
  3. The author is focusing on concentrated positions in companies like MELI and AMZN, with some cash holdings for future investments.

Revisiting Stock Buybacks

Fish Food for Thought • 6 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💼 Business Finance Investments Corporate Governance Market Analysis Economic Policy
  1. Companies that buy back their stock instead of investing in research and development may reduce innovation. This can lead to fewer new products and a weaker market position in the long run.
  2. Stock buybacks can be a sign that a company thinks its shares are undervalued, but many companies end up overpaying for their own stock. This means that, sometimes, buybacks might not be a good investment.
  3. Critics say buybacks manipulate stock prices and benefit top executives more than long-term investors. Instead of improving the company's health, these practices could hurt its future growth and stability.

Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities

Musings on Markets • 839 implied HN points • 22 Jan 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Risk Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. 2022 was a tough year for stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping about 18%. Negative years are common in the stock market, reminding us that investing carries risks.
  2. Inflation was a major factor in the market's decline, impacting returns on stocks. Higher costs of living affected investors' expectations and how companies performed.
  3. Looking forward to 2023, expected returns on stocks are higher, around 9.82%. However, market conditions can change, making it important for investors to stay informed and adjust their strategies.

Hidden Champions among India's ADRs/GDRs

Asian Century Stocks • 353 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Companies Economy Market Analysis
  1. There are high-quality Indian companies listed overseas that international investors can consider.
  2. Among the 16 Indian companies listed overseas, five were highlighted as having competitive products and potential for growth.
  3. The Indian market has more than 5,000 listed stocks, with Indian ADRs and GDRs having a combined market cap of around US$660 billion.

New Jersey Goes Rogue

Mindset Value • 353 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investment Market Analysis Company analysis Valuation
  1. New Jersey has limited licenses for cannabis companies, leading to high prices and lower quality products.
  2. Grown Rogue is entering New Jersey with their high-quality, low-cost cannabis, potentially disrupting the market.
  3. Grown Rogue's operational excellence and efficiency position them as a valuable investment opportunity in the cannabis industry.

Building Models to Predict the Future

Growth Croissant • 353 implied HN points • 31 Mar 23
💼 Business Forecasting Subscription Market Analysis Financial planning Business Growth
  1. Subscription business models are more predictable and easier to forecast compared to other models.
  2. A reliable forecast can provide baseline expectations for growth, shift focus to long-term revenue, and help set goals and allocate investments.
  3. Forecasting new paid subscriptions and predicting paid cancels are key components in building a forecast model for a subscription business.

So, you messed up.

DeFi Education • 1019 implied HN points • 01 Dec 22
🔮 Crypto Investing Risk management Market Analysis Financial planning Personal Finance
  1. Everyone makes mistakes, especially in investing. It's important to learn from them and manage risk so you can keep moving forward.
  2. If you're struggling financially, focus on increasing your cash flow, cutting expenses, and working hard. It's important to adapt to the tough times.
  3. Don't assume that past market conditions will come back. Prepare for the future by managing risks and being smart about your investments.

Spotlight: Michael Mealling - General Partner @ Starbridge Venture Capital

Space Ambition • 79 implied HN points • 03 May 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investment Strategies Space Technology Startup Ecosystem Market Analysis
  1. The key to successful investing in spacetech is understanding market structures and leveraging a strong network. This helps in identifying real opportunities amid hype.
  2. Using the Integrated Space Plan (ISP) aids in spotting gaps and potential growth areas in the industry. It's important to ensure there are actual customers for new technologies.
  3. When reaching out to potential investors, concise and clear pitches about the business model are crucial. It's more effective to focus on solving customer problems rather than just showcasing technology.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Sales Data Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home sales in California jumped by 19.5% compared to last year, signaling a strong recovery even though overall sales remain below pre-COVID levels.
  2. The number of active home listings grew significantly, with inventory up over 20% year-over-year, which may affect house prices in the coming months.
  3. New listings have also increased slightly, but are still at historically low levels, suggesting that supply remains tight in several markets.

It's Logical

Points And Figures • 346 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💼 Business Startup Investing Product-Market Fit Venture Capital Market Analysis
  1. The main reason for business failure often boils down to individuals not being able to achieve product-market fit.
  2. Businesses that may seem logical on the surface can actually struggle to succeed in the startup world.
  3. Investing in startups involves understanding that success may not always follow a straightforward, logical path, and accepting the inherent risks involved in the process.