The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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What happened to plant-based meat?

Open Philanthropy farm animal welfare research newsletter • 559 implied HN points • 07 Mar 23
🍲 Food & Drink Consumer Trends Market Analysis Industry challenges
  1. Plant-based meat saw a surge in popularity, but now faces stagnation and challenges, being labeled as a 'fad.'
  2. Consumer reception of plant-based meat is influenced by factors like price, taste, and health perceptions.
  3. To revive growth in the plant-based meat industry, innovation, patient investors, and positive media attention emphasizing benefits are crucial.

Longs For Shy Bears

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 11 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Analysis Economic Trends Short selling Behavioral Finance
  1. It's important to focus on short-term survival in investing, even if you have long-term goals. You need to manage risks carefully in the volatile market.
  2. There are signs of extreme behavior in trends like crypto and AI, but not acting rashly is key. Timing and proper planning are crucial to avoid losses.
  3. The investor expresses a desire to bet against market crazes but acknowledges that it requires careful strategy to be successful.

The $3 Trillion Question

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🔮 Crypto Bitcoin Blockchain Market Analysis Investing Technology
  1. Google's new Willow processor could potentially challenge the security of the bitcoin network. It's important to pay attention to new technologies that might impact cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investing in bitcoin carries risks that can emerge suddenly, especially amid volatility in stock and bond markets. Always be cautious and aware of these risks.
  3. The cryptocurrency market remains complex and unpredictable, so staying informed is crucial for making good investment decisions. Research and understanding are key.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Statistics
  1. Housing starts in October dropped to 1.311 million, which is lower than both September and October of last year. This shows a continued decrease in new home construction.
  2. Single-family housing starts also fell by about 6.9% compared to the previous month, suggesting potential challenges in the market for individual homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts saw a trend of weakness over the past year, indicating it may be harder to get those types of buildings underway, while single-family starts have been improving recently.
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Job-to-be-done Theory and Comparison Table

André Casal's Substack • 19 implied HN points • 26 Jul 24
💼 Business Market Analysis Customer Needs Product Development
  1. Job-to-be-done theory helps define your market by focusing on customer needs and their desired outcomes. Understanding what users want makes it easier to tailor your product.
  2. Creating a survey can help you collect valuable feedback from customers about their unmet needs. This insight can guide you in improving your product and identifying opportunities.
  3. Improving your landing page with comparison criteria and customer testimonials can make it more appealing. It’s important to keep iterating based on customer feedback to better serve their needs.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 24, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Events Market Analysis Earnings Reports Global trends
  1. Thanksgiving is coming up, and it's a good time to take a break and enjoy the holiday with family.
  2. This week will see some tech earnings and IPOs, including the self-driving software company Pony.ai going public.
  3. Economic events are happening in the U.S. and globally, with various reports on jobless claims, consumer confidence, and business confidence scheduled.

Endgame #2

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
💰 Finance Currency Bonds Market Analysis Economic Impact Government shutdown
  1. Japan is facing challenges with its currency and bond market, with the USD/JPY crossing critical levels and the market pressuring the Yen amidst debt concerns.
  2. The US bond market is experiencing significant turbulence, with record lows in various instruments and rising yields posing challenges for investors.
  3. China is grappling with an economic slowdown fueled by a declining property market and potential need for widespread bailouts, leading to concerns about the country's economic future.

Ecoinometrics - Could one Bitcoin be worth $1m by June?

Ecoinometrics • 314 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Investment Economics Market Analysis Financial trends
  1. Some believe one Bitcoin could reach $1 million by June, but it's quite unlikely.
  2. Historical data shows Bitcoin has seen high growth, but reaching $1 million in 90 days is a huge challenge.
  3. A scenario where hyperinflation devalues the US dollar significantly is a key factor in this extreme price prediction.

The Nvidia economy and the benefits of toilet paper.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Strategies Economic Trends Market Analysis Business Models
  1. Nvidia is rising fast in the market and could soon be worth more than Apple. Experts believe its growth is different from the tech bubble of the past.
  2. During election years, the stock market often has ups and downs, but usually rallies in the second half. Historical trends show that certain sectors perform better depending on who wins the election.
  3. Investors should look for companies with strong 'moats' that protect them from risks. Essential products like toothpaste and toilet paper are always in demand, making companies like Procter & Gamble good choices.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic data Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same when compared to last year, with a slight overall decrease of about 0.6%. This means rental prices are not rising much.
  2. The rental market is seeing more available apartments due to a lot of new construction, which keeps prices low. The vacancy rate is the highest it's been since the pandemic began.
  3. Single-family home rents have increased by about 2% year-over-year but are still below pre-pandemic growth levels. Many areas are seeing slower rent growth, which is good news for renters.

Investing Update: Is This Peak Bullishness?

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Market Analysis Financial News
  1. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high this month, with November being the best month of the year so far. This indicates strong market performance overall.
  2. Many individual stocks are also doing great this year, with a majority of them showing positive results. Specifically, financial stocks are leading the way in performance.
  3. December is traditionally a good month for the market, especially in an election year, which encourages bullish investor sentiment.

Celsius Simplified

DeFi Education • 299 implied HN points • 13 Oct 23
🔮 Crypto Cryptocurrency Blockchain Market Analysis Finance DeFi
  1. Crypto bankruptcies can cause big market shifts as assets might be sold. This could affect how people invest and manage their money.
  2. It's important to remember that these bankruptcies can actually help some people. They can get money back that they lost and might reinvest it in the market.
  3. The recovery process from these bankruptcies involves a lot of people. Many investors might return to the crypto space after getting their funds back.

Defy the Banks and Ponzis. Also, is Jim Cramer Wrong Again?

DeFi Education • 739 implied HN points • 24 Jan 23
🔮 Crypto DeFi Market Analysis Investment Blockchain Financial Systems
  1. DeFi shows potential even after setbacks in the market. It's important to look at strong projects that survived tough times rather than getting caught up in hype.
  2. Smart contracts in DeFi can reduce reliance on traditional banks. This helps eliminate certain risks and allows for faster transactions between parties.
  3. It's crucial to focus on the real-world problems that DeFi aims to solve. Understanding these fundamentals may help in deciding whether to trust and invest in this technology.

Video game pitch decks: how you get them 'right'!

The GameDiscoverCo newsletter • 294 implied HN points • 14 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Gaming Platforms Market Analysis
  1. Pitch decks for video games should focus on the 'ask', studio experience, traction, and comps.
  2. Successful platforms like Steam prioritize developer-centric attitude, predictability, and consumer stickiness.
  3. Latest game discovery news includes Sony's PS5 cloud streaming, return of Indie MEGABOOTH, and various game-specific updates.

Ecoinometrics - Inverted yield curve and market corrections

Ecoinometrics • 294 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investment Bitcoin Market Analysis Recession
  1. Inverted yield curve is a consistent predictor of a recession in the financial markets.
  2. The depth of the inversion does not necessarily indicate the severity of the stock market correction.
  3. For risk assets like the stock market and Bitcoin, the economy's damage during a recession affects them more than the inversion of the yield curve.

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity in German Residential Real Estate Stocks

Modern Value Investing • 294 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Stocks Market Analysis Interest Rates
  1. German residential real estate stocks offer 200% upside based on their NAV
  2. Potential for German residential real estate stocks to re-establish dividends at 3-4%, translating to a 200% near term upside
  3. Investing in German residential real estate offers a long-term opportunity with potential returns of 5-6x over 10 years

ICYMI: Where the Jobs Are; Doc Drama; TV News Star $$ Falling

The Ankler • 137 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💼 Business Entertainment Media Jobs Market Analysis Salaries
  1. Learn about job opportunities in entertainment: Discover growing fields, unexpected job areas, and where Hollywood professionals are being placed by recruiters.
  2. The documentary market shifts: From small stories to celebs and sports stars, there's a potential return to a lucrative phase.
  3. TV news star salaries declining: High-profile news anchors like Rachel Maddow and Sean Hannity are seeing budget cuts and changes, indicating a shift in the industry.

Why 'What is your CAC?' is the Wrong Question to Ask

Nail It and Scale It • 39 implied HN points • 11 Jun 24
💼 Business Growth Strategy Startup funding Market Analysis Investment Insights Entrepreneurship
  1. When asking about customer acquisition cost (CAC), it's important to know the full story behind the number. Questions like how long the data covers and how much was spent can reveal if the figure is reliable.
  2. Some businesses may share only their best data to look good, which can be misleading. It's smart to ask how recent and continuous the data is to get a clearer picture.
  3. CAC shouldn’t be seen alone. Understanding what a company is trying to achieve can change how we interpret that cost, especially as they grow and scale their spending.

The Keynesian Liquidity Trap Fable

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economics Investment Market Analysis Banking
  1. People often think the economy fails because consumers save too much and spend too little. But saving isn't always bad; it can help strengthen the economy if done right.
  2. When banks lower interest rates to encourage spending, it sometimes backfires. Instead of spending, people might just save more, leading to a 'liquidity trap' where money isn't flowing in the economy.
  3. Expanding the money supply might make it seem like the economy is growing at first, but if savings decline due to previous bad policies, this can actually hurt the economy in the long run.

Exit Strategies, Fundamentals and Cleaning House

DeFi Education • 1358 implied HN points • 26 Apr 22
🔮 Crypto DeFi Investing Market Analysis Regulations
  1. Exit strategies in crypto include buying, holding, and selling, with the focus on liquidity as a key factor for investors. It's important to sell when the market recognizes your investment's value for better gains.
  2. Understanding the fundamentals of crypto is essential, but they differ from traditional assets. Factors like project purpose, team strength, and market competition are crucial to consider.
  3. Regularly review your portfolio to ensure each investment has a solid reason for holding. Cut losses on projects with weak teams or bad token supply dynamics to make smarter choices.

AI in Browsers: Features and Opportunities

The Strategy Deck • 157 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Browsers AI Web Innovation Market Analysis
  1. Browsers like Microsoft Edge and Opera are leading the way in integrating AI features and technologies.
  2. The browser market has seen significant shifts in market share over the past decade, with Chrome dominating but competitors like Safari and Opera making gains.
  3. The future of browsers involves integrating AI assistants for enhanced user experiences and leveraging browser data for personalized services.

TAM Volume

Sriram Krishnan’s Newsletter • 275 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
💼 Business Market Analysis Entrepreneurship Sales Customers Opportunities
  1. When considering a market, focus not just on the total value but also on the volume of potential customers or personas.
  2. High volume of target customers provides more opportunities for learning and growth in a business.
  3. A larger TAM (volume) allows for more chances to adjust strategies and learn from mistakes compared to low volume markets.

#59: Algae, the New Oil Rush

Snaxshot • 159 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
🍲 Food & Drink Food Trends Sustainability Market Analysis
  1. The olive oil market is growing with premium brands like Brightland and Graza standing out.
  2. Zero Acre Oil offers a sustainable cooking oil alternative with health benefits and environmental advantages.
  3. Algae Cooking Club is introducing algae oil as a new culinary ingredient, focusing on flavor enhancement and collaborations with culinary icons.

User Research Guide For Founders, Part 2: Plan your Research

Elizabeth Laraki • 59 implied HN points • 06 May 24
💼 Business Startups User Research Market Analysis Product Development Entrepreneurship
  1. Identify who you want to talk to for your research. Focus on people who can actually help answer your questions.
  2. Recruit participants carefully by using screening forms to find the right fit. Make sure your questions are clear and helpful.
  3. Create a detailed research plan and script to guide your sessions. This will help make your research more effective and insightful.

Meta (Facebook) Lesson 1: Corporate Governance

Musings on Markets • 779 implied HN points • 07 Nov 22
💼 Business Corporate Governance Investment Strategies Market Analysis Tech industry Financial Performance
  1. Corporate governance focuses on how companies are run and who gets to make decisions. It's important because when management and shareholder interests do not align, it can result in poor decisions that harm the company.
  2. Facebook's stock has dropped significantly because of issues like the slowdown in online advertising and reputational damage. These challenges highlight the need for better governance to adapt to changing market conditions.
  3. Investors often give up their voting power when companies use dual-class shares, which can limit their ability to influence management. This trend can make it harder to make necessary changes when a company's leadership is not effective.

Overview of Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Part 2 of 2

DeFi Education • 579 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investment Risk management Portfolio Management Financial planning Market Analysis
  1. Portfolio construction requires understanding different frameworks and methods to organize investments effectively. It's important to choose a strategy that fits your financial goals.
  2. Using leverage can be useful in certain situations, but it also increases risk. It's essential to know when it's appropriate to leverage your investments.
  3. Controlling risk with position sizing is crucial for managing your portfolio. By adjusting the size of your investments, you can better protect yourself against losses.

Data Update 3 for 2023: Interest Rates and Bond Returns

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 31 Jan 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates Bonds Investment Market Analysis Economic Trends
  1. In 2022, both stocks and treasury bonds saw very bad returns, with treasury bonds performing the worst in historical terms. Investors lost significant money as interest rates rose sharply, which was unexpected for a market often seen as safe.
  2. Interest rates increased due to rising inflation and not just the actions of the Federal Reserve. As inflation went up, so did investor expectations, which led to higher rates across the board.
  3. Corporate bonds were also hit hard, especially lower-rated ones, leading to increased costs for companies. As a result, many companies may struggle to pay back debt, especially if the economy weakens.

The Big Bond Week

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 137 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Investments Bonds Market Analysis
  1. The FOMC meeting and the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement are key events affecting policy and market reactions.
  2. Investors are closely watching for details on rate cuts, balance sheet reduction, and labor conditions.
  3. The upcoming employment report could impact policy decisions, especially in relation to labor demand and supply.

L'ONDA D'URTO

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 157 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Debt Market Analysis Monetary System
  1. Markets react impulsively to news, creating a sudden impact with amplified effects.
  2. The current economic system relies on debt-based currencies, leading to a continuous cycle of increasing debt and the need for new debts to pay off old ones.
  3. Observing unstable curves in economic indicators may indicate a system approaching a critical phase.