The hottest Monetary Policy Substack posts right now

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Fed Should Hold Rates Steady In March

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed should hold its policy rate steady in March rather than cut, because current economic data don’t justify easing despite headline uncertainty.
  2. Monetary policy rules like the Taylor rule and nominal GDP rules point to a policy rate near 4 percent, which is above the current 3.5–3.75 percent range and suggests restraint or even a modest increase.
  3. Further rate cuts would need clear evidence — for example inflation falling toward 2 percent, unemployment rising by about a full percentage point, or a sizable drop in nominal spending — so the Fed should wait for those signals before easing.

Home construction leading the almost recession recovery

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 210 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
💼 Business Monetary Policy
  1. Construction employment is a leading indicator for recessions and recoveries, so sustained building activity makes it harder for a deep recession to take hold.
  2. Rising interest and mortgage rates around 2022 stalled construction job growth, but the sector is also held back by non-labor capacity limits, and overall unemployment has recently peaked and begun to fall.
  3. Recent upticks in new home sales and a normalization of migration into high-growth regions suggest single-family construction may soon rise, and homebuilder results could surprise to the upside.

The End of Pax Americana

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Monetary Policy
  1. The United States is shifting toward protectionism, using new legal routes to impose broad tariffs that act like heavy taxes and raise prices for American households.
  2. Tariffs can’t revive obsolete industries; they mostly transfer wealth to protected firms, reduce downstream jobs, and hit low- and middle-income families hardest by raising costs and cutting real wages.
  3. Other countries are deepening their own trade ties and the dollar's dominance is waning, so America's global economic leadership is slipping; reversing this trend will require Congress to reclaim trade authority and a return to open trade policies.

How the Billionaire Class Robs You

Erik Examines • 671 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Many billionaires get rich from inflated stock valuations and borrowing against paper wealth, not from producing real goods or sustained profits.
  2. Hype, storytelling, and financial engineering turn belief into real purchasing power, pushing up prices for housing and goods and hurting wage earners.
  3. This outcome comes from deregulated finance and tax rules, and it could be changed by reintroducing capital controls, credit regulation, and policies that tie capital to real production.

Two Sides of The News

Points And Figures • 1039 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. A grand jury probe of the Fed highlights how polarized the country is—people interpret the same event very differently depending on their biases.
  2. Some view the investigation as sensible oversight to expose waste, fraud, and mission drift at the Fed, citing large staffs, costly projects, and policy shifts into areas like climate and equality.
  3. Others warn such probes could undermine Fed independence and economic stability, while some advocate cutting government waste and moving away from Keynesian policies toward freer-market ideas.
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Infographics: Key Rates & Spreads In the Modern Repo Market

Concoda • 216 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The infographic lays out the key repo market interest rates that set the cost of short‑term secured funding. It gives a quick visual sense of how those rates behave in the modern market.
  2. It highlights the average spreads dealers earn on repo trades, showing that dealers capture consistent compensation differences across repo types and counterparties. This makes dealer economics a clear part of repo pricing.
  3. The figures are presented in the context of the Fed’s new policy target, implying these rates and spreads matter for monetary operations and market functioning. That connection suggests changes in Fed policy will affect repo dynamics.

The Fed Should Stay in Its Lane

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 449 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed has drifted into topics like climate change and social policy, publishing research and public messages beyond its traditional focus on inflation and banking.
  2. That mission creep triggered public backlash and raised concerns among staff and observers that the central bank is becoming politicized.
  3. A new chair should refocus the Fed on core monetary policy and avoid advocacy on issues like climate or childcare, but pulling it back to that lane will be a difficult task.

The Great Entertainment

Kyla’s Newsletter • 472 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. Politics is turning into nonstop spectacle, with leaders treating governance like reality TV; that showmanship erodes trust, breaks alliances, and makes policy unpredictable.
  2. Financial markets are already punishing the drama: foreign selling, unwind of carry trades, and tariff threats are pushing yields up and could sharply raise U.S. borrowing costs.
  3. The durable path forward is material reality, not nostalgia or performance — energy, industry, and truthful institutions matter for the AI race and for rebuilding global trust.

Top Links 989 The repo man cometh. Schacht in Iran. How native Americans met the horse & Pizza intel.

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The roundup bundles varied links covering economic strains (the “repo man” theme), historical/political items like Schacht in Iran, cultural history about Native Americans meeting the horse, and oddities such as “pizza intel.”
  2. The soft underbelly of the US economy is taking hits, signaling real vulnerabilities and financial stress in certain sectors.
  3. The material is distributed via a paid newsletter model, with subscription options and some posts offered free while others are behind a paywall.

How (And When) Gold Could Reach $10,000

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. When a dominant power’s currency loses credibility, foreign partners can stop using it and demand hard assets like gold, which can fuel domestic inflation.
  2. If foreign governments and central banks start shifting even a small slice of their dollar holdings into gold, that reallocation can push gold prices sharply higher.
  3. Analysts estimate that buying roughly 10,000 metric tons (about 10% of foreigners' dollar assets) could drive gold toward $10,000, but that would require unprecedented purchases and a major geopolitical loss of confidence.

Economics Links, 2/3/2026

In My Tribe • 243 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. A concentrated productivity shift is underway in finance, insurance, information, and professional/business services: these sectors have kept growing output while employment has flattened, pushing output per worker sharply higher since 2022. This acceleration looks sector-specific rather than a broad private‑sector trend.
  2. There are two contrasting ways to see central banks: one treats them as liquidity providers and dealers of last resort sitting atop a hierarchy of money, focused on keeping payments and credit relationships working, while the other treats them as essentially a government bank whose balance sheet and interest on reserves make central‑bank liabilities behave like short‑term Treasury instruments. The choice between these views changes how you interpret central‑bank tools and their role in stabilizing markets.
  3. Fear of crime, not lack of demand, helps explain why many American cities stay low‑density compared with Europe: people avoid neighborhoods they perceive as unsafe, which reduces urban living despite high rents in safer areas. Making neighborhoods safer would likely raise demand to live in more parts of cities and increase density.

January 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Inflation that excludes rent has tracked very close to a 2% trend for about 3½ years.
  2. Rents should be treated separately from other inflation measures because they can distort signals used for monetary policy.
  3. Home price movements are driven by cyclical factors, credit conditions, and supply constraints, and understanding those components is key to interpreting housing trends.

Foundations of Investing: Inflation

Behavioral Value Investor • 141 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Money can and very likely will lose some of its purchasing power over time. If you just hold cash, it will buy fewer goods and services in the future.
  2. Government actions like printing money or debasing currency have repeatedly driven inflation, and history shows this can sometimes be extreme enough to wipe out savings. Even stable countries can experience long periods of above-target inflation.
  3. Because of inflation, savers should use ways of saving or investing that at least keep up with inflation instead of leaving money idle under a mattress. Investing can help preserve and grow the real value of your savings over the long run.

Is a Country Rising or Falling? Watch Its Currency.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 510 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26
🌐 International Monetary Policy
  1. A country’s currency value gives a quick signal about whether it’s rising or falling on the world stage.
  2. When a currency collapses or becomes effectively untradeable, as with Iran’s rial, it signals deep uncertainty about the country’s future and discourages foreign trading.
  3. Big moves in major currencies — like a weak yen or a strong dollar — reflect wider economic and political shifts that matter internationally, not just for travelers.

Infographics: The Modern Repo Market

Concoda • 329 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. A large, detailed infographic maps how cash and collateral move through the modern repo market around 2026.
  2. The chart is best downloaded and viewed on a high-resolution device; start at the green "start here" box in the top-right, follow flows right-to-left, and consult the legend to learn the terminology.
  3. A follow-up write-up will unpack the chart and explain the mechanics and jargon in more detail.

Unpopular Quick Take

Points And Figures • 453 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The ten‑year Treasury yield is high largely because demand for debt is strong as the economy expands, not because of runaway inflation.
  2. Corporate capex is rising due to tax incentives like full expensing and big AI investments, which is pushing firms to borrow more and support higher long‑term rates.
  3. Traditional inflation signals and manufacturing are cooling — CPI and commodity prices are down and ISM is in contraction — so growth appears driven by investment and productivity gains rather than broad consumer inflation or big hiring waves.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates but is now signaling that they may not do it quickly again. This can be seen as a bit disappointing for the markets.
  2. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, mentioned they are not in a hurry to make more rate cuts. This message is important for those watching the economy.
  3. Overall, it seems the Fed wants to stay cautious and not rush decisions that could impact the market.

Top Links 975 Real v. digital gold. Bulgarians & the euro. Soldiers as battery carriers & Tolstoy at the beach.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Real gold and digital "gold" are different; physical gold has long-standing monetary and cultural weight, while digital versions raise new questions about trust, ownership, and value.
  2. Bulgaria and the euro is a key issue, since adopting the euro involves political, economic, and social trade-offs for the country.
  3. Modern military life mixes technology and human cost—soldiers can be treated like battery carriers—while cultural images like Tolstoy at the beach highlight surprising contrasts between war, technology, and everyday life.

Four Rules for the New Fed Chair

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 255 implied HN points • 31 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Kevin Warsh is well qualified for Fed chair, with the intellect and experience to engage with complex policy and market issues.
  2. His confirmation should depend on clear commitments to protect the Fed’s independence and on the President taking visible steps to resolve legal or political uncertainty around the central bank’s leadership.
  3. The Fed’s success rests on credibility and autonomy, not just technical mastery, because markets only function well when they trust the central bank.

Will the Supreme Court Save the Fed from Trump?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 268 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. The president tried to fire a Federal Reserve governor for the first time to push the Fed toward interest-rate cuts. It was an unprecedented attempt to influence monetary policy.
  2. Federal Reserve governors are legally protected and can be removed only for cause, a rule meant to shield the central bank from political interference. This statutory protection preserves the Fed’s independence.
  3. The Supreme Court’s arguments suggested it may reject broad presidential power to remove central-bank officials and uphold the Fed’s autonomy. At the same time, the court might still permit greater presidential control over other kinds of appointees.

The Fed Eases

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed cut rates by 0.25% and said it will expand its balance sheet by buying short-term Treasurys to keep ample bank reserves.
  2. Policymakers now expect inflation to fall (about 3% end-2025 and 2.5% in 2026) and slightly raised GDP forecasts while unemployment stays near current levels.
  3. The balance-sheet move is meant to ease interbank liquidity strains and should push short-term yields lower, which has already helped lift futures and the stock market.

Plumbing Notes: The Great Compression

Concoda • 551 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed has stepped in to tame money-market volatility by buying short-term U.S. Treasuries and injecting reserves sooner than expected, running roughly $40 billion a month in these operations.
  2. Those actions will compress overnight rates and short-term spreads as reserves move back toward near-abundant levels, but because the purchases target ultra-short bills rather than longer-term bonds, they won’t be a broad easing of financial conditions or sharply lower long-term rates.
  3. The goal is to build a reserve cushion to protect against volatile Treasury General Account flows and tax-day outflows, reducing the chance of disruptive interbank strains.

Plumbing Notes: Swifter Injections

Concoda • 664 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The market is expecting the Fed to start adding liquidity sooner than later, possibly around January. This means banks might have more cash available sooner than previously thought.
  2. There are signs that funding conditions are improving slightly, even with banks tightening their balance sheets. So, while things might look tough, the year-end might not be as bad as it seems.
  3. The Fed is likely to keep rates steady for now and avoid making big changes. They don't want to create more chaos in the funding markets, especially with liquidity injections on the horizon.

ORANGE MAN, BAD MACRO: Trump’s War on Powell & Economic-Policy Reality

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 315 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. The president is trying to criminalize Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell for doing his job and resisting political pressure, which threatens Fed independence and the rule of law.
  2. Powell’s monetary policy largely succeeded: it sustained growth before COVID, supported spending during the pandemic to avoid a deep depression, and powered a rapid post-vaccine recovery toward full employment, although that recovery contributed to a higher price level partly driven by external shocks.
  3. The administration’s immigration enforcement and broader tactics are becoming brutal and politicized, and some officials who enable or tolerate these actions should have resigned instead of staying on.

Plumbing Notes: A Faulty Relief Valve

Concoda • 599 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Federal Reserve's changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) will not significantly boost demand for U.S. Treasuries from banks. This is because the adjustments provide only minimal benefits for banks to increase their Treasury holdings.
  2. Banks are still mainly influenced by risk-weighted capital requirements, which could prevent them from buying more U.S. Treasuries. Even with a lowered SLR, banks might not feel compelled to increase their inventory of government debt.
  3. A stronger emphasis on growing deposits and other market factors are likely to drive bank demand for Treasuries more than the new regulatory changes. So, the real growth in Treasury buying might come from broader economic improvements rather than just regulatory easing.

GIGO from the San Francisco Fed

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The post-2008 mortgage crackdown and a long-weakened construction sector made housing supply—especially multi-family—largely inelastic across U.S. cities, so migration has been the main way markets equilibrate rather than local building responding to demand.
  2. Metro-area averages hide how shortages disproportionately hit poorer households: a uniform lot premium pushes up low-tier home prices proportionally more, displacing lower-income families and mechanically raising local average incomes, which can be mistaken for voluntary preference sorting.
  3. The finding that incomes correlate with house prices is empirically right but misinterpreted; the deeper story is constrained supply and selection effects, and as building capacity recovers local zoning and demand differences (and related policy choices) will again determine affordability.

The Fed's New Target: Part I

Concoda • 281 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed is moving away from targeting an unsecured overnight fed‑funds rate and toward a secured repo benchmark as its main policy rate to reduce volatility and strengthen control over money markets.
  2. The Fed has started large reserve injections and new permanent open‑market operations that have compressed overnight money‑market rates and prevented year‑end plumbing stress.
  3. As a result, banks’ balance sheets are set to expand, the repo market will become central to rate setting, and the unsecured interbank market’s role is likely to shrink.

A Horrendous Job Report Looks Even Worse Under the Surface

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The latest jobs numbers show a sharp weakening: payrolls fell by 92k while the household survey lost 185k jobs, with the household measure down over 1 million year‑to‑date through two months.
  2. BLS birth/death assumptions and large downward revisions mask the true weakness — the agency assumed about 90k new jobs in February while revisions have cut roughly 76.5k jobs per month over the past year.
  3. Underlying indicators confirm fragility: full‑time jobs have declined recently, most sectors are negative over the last 12 months, and labor force participation has slipped to around 62%.

The Man Behind Trump’s Attack on the Fed

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 245 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. Bill Pulte runs the Federal Housing Finance Agency, a little-known agency he has turned into a combative and influential force in Washington and on Wall Street.
  2. He has actively attacked Federal Reserve officials: he’s been tied to subpoenas in a probe of Chair Jerome Powell, mocked up a “wanted” poster of Powell, and even traveled with Trump, while denying knowledge of the probe.
  3. Pulte has used the FHFA to refer alleged criminal cases against Fed officials (for example, against governor Lisa Cook) to the Justice Department, fueling legal and political battles over the Fed’s independence and presidential authority.

Top Links 959 Dodgy numbers. Black unemployment. Varoufakis fake. Embracing decline.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. America’s official inflation numbers look dodgy and probably understate actual price pressures, so they need closer scrutiny.
  2. High Black unemployment is highlighted as a major ongoing economic and social problem that demands attention.
  3. There are claims that figures like Varoufakis are inauthentic, and a broader theme warns that some people or institutions are calmly embracing economic decline rather than resisting it.

Infographics: How Liquidity Requirements Create Demand For Reserves/U.S. Treasuries

Concoda • 340 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Liquidity rules push big banks to hold safe, liquid assets like reserve balances and U.S. Treasuries, which creates steady demand for those assets.
  2. Large banks face intraday liquidity needs that force them to keep enough reserves available to settle payments and manage cash flows during the day.
  3. Visual diagrams help show how those intraday requirements link to central bank policy and Treasury demand, clarifying why reserves matter for markets.

Top Links 956 Dollar reserves. The politics of hunger in Sudan. Microscopic robots & Ralph Lauren's Christmas.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Dollar reserves have changed a lot since the late 1990s, reshaping how the dollar functions in global finance and geopolitics.
  2. Curated links span diverse topics, from the politics of hunger in Sudan to advances in microscopic robots and cultural pieces like Ralph Lauren's Christmas.
  3. The content is distributed via a subscription model that offers some free posts alongside paid options to support the work.

Top Links 954 Financial nihilism. Italian gold. Confronting defeat & Modi v. the Maoists.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. US markets are seeing a surge in speculative retail trading. Daily share volumes rose about 60% to around 18 billion and retail traders now account for more than half of short-dated options.
  2. The newsletter highlights Italian cultural and artistic topics. Examples include Ion Bitzan’s Recolta and discussions of Italian gold.
  3. It covers hard political and security themes, including pieces on confronting defeat and conflicts like Modi’s campaign against Maoist insurgents.

Infographics: The Fed's Repo Rate "Sweet Spot"

Concoda • 286 implied HN points • 28 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed wants repo rate benchmarks to sit in a narrow "sweet spot" just below the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) rate.
  2. It will actively force those repo rates to print inside that zone, even when market pressures push them elsewhere.
  3. Opposing forces can move repo benchmarks off-target, but the Fed intends to counteract them to keep rates anchored just below IORB.

Top Links 952 Tracking google to call the peak. Getting Europeans to love finance & how Sargent fell out of love with portrait-painting.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Spikes in Google searches can help identify when investing fads are peaking, so tracking search trends is a useful signal for market attention.
  2. There are ongoing efforts to get Europeans more engaged with finance, which could change how they save, invest, and view markets.
  3. Sargent moved away from portrait painting later in his career, showing how an artist’s interests and style can shift over time.

Quick Essay: The Federal Reserve and Critical Moments in U.S. Monetary Policy

Chamath Palihapitiya • 3871 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Before the Federal Reserve, the U.S. had banking issues and crises, leading to the need for a central bank in 1913.
  2. The Great Depression prompted key reforms like the Banking Act of 1933 and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.
  3. The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a shift to Fiat currency and the decline of the gold standard.

Plumbing Notes: The Basis Trade Scare

Concoda • 518 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The cash-futures basis trade is really important for the bond market. It's a complex strategy where traders buy and sell bonds to manage risks and maximize profits.
  2. There is a lot of fear around hedge funds using leverage in basis trades, but many of these fears might be exaggerated. Traders have ways to handle fluctuations in interest rates without losing their positions.
  3. Overall, the bond market is evolving, and while some risks are present, the structure is strong enough to withstand certain shocks, and hedge funds play a vital role in keeping the market stable.

Plumbing Notes: The Post-QT Era

Concoda • 459 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The end of the current period of quantitative tightening (QT) is approaching, and this is important for understanding future liquidity in the market. Basically, financial conditions are expected to tighten as we move towards the end of the year.
  2. There is a significant focus on U.S. Treasury cash targets and how they will change next year. The Treasury may be raising its cash reserves target due to increased demand for short-term securities.
  3. The expectations are that the Federal Reserve will start injecting more money into the market, but that might not happen until early 2026. Meanwhile, banks are likely to adjust their operations to manage tighter balance sheet conditions.

Foundations of Investing: What Is Money?

Behavioral Value Investor • 148 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Money is a tool that makes trade easy: it serves as a medium of exchange, a way to compare prices, and a store of purchasing power for the future.
  2. Money usually comes from providing value to others — you can think of it as stored labor society gives you in return for work, goods, or services.
  3. You can spend it now, give it away, or save it for later, and it’s usually wise to put at least some money into each bucket so you’re prepared, generous, and planning for the future.

Economics Links, 12/13/2025

In My Tribe • 318 implied HN points • 13 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Defined-benefit pension plans share risk and promise steady payouts, but claims of higher returns often rely on risky investments and create incentives that lead to underfunding and bailouts. 401(k)s put responsibility on individuals to make good investment choices.
  2. Modern institutions keep creating more HR, compliance, DEI, and management roles to prevent mistakes and reduce risk, which explains much recent job growth in administrative positions. This expansion may be concentrated in nonprofits and health care, producing many paper-pushing jobs.
  3. Trade with China changes the mix of what gets produced but is not inherently zero-sum, since domestic productivity and policy can offset demand shifts. Meanwhile, zero-sum thinking strongly shapes political views—encouraging support for redistribution, identity-based policies, and restrictive immigration—and often reflects personal or ancestral experiences.