The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Freddie Reports Surge in Multifamily Serious Delinquencies

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 71 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Real Estate
  1. Freddie Mac reported a significant increase in multifamily serious delinquencies in January 2024, marking a shift in the rental market dynamics.
  2. The rise in delinquency rates is attributed to slowed rent growth, increased vacancies, and higher borrowing rates in the multifamily housing sector.
  3. The trend of increasing delinquencies is expected to continue as more apartments become available in 2024, highlighting potential challenges in the real estate market.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Home Prices
  1. Existing home sales increased in October, marking the first year-over-year gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Sales were estimated to be at an annual rate of 3.97 million, which is a 3.4% increase from September. This shows a gradual recovery in home buying activity.
  3. The increase in home sales could indicate a shift in the market, possibly making it a better time for buyers and sellers to engage in real estate transactions.

Rebuilding Ukraine could be top European investment theme of 2026

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 07 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investment Infrastructure Europe Emerging Markets Public Finance Geopolitics
  1. If the war ends, a large reconstruction boom in Ukraine could start quickly and create big demand for rebuilding infrastructure and homes.
  2. Rebuilding Ukraine could become the top European investment theme in 2026, drawing capital into construction, materials, and related services.
  3. Political developments that lead to a truce will strongly influence the timing and scale of these investment opportunities, so policy moves will matter for investors.

Degenesis: How to source memes to trade, perform DD, and size your bets

Boltzmann Soul • 2 HN points • 28 Jun 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Trading Investing Risk management Decentralized Finance
  1. Understand how to source memes for trading by looking at opportunity identification and filtering through platforms like Dexscreener.
  2. Perform due diligence on meme coins by checking for burned liquidity, mint and freeze authorities, holder distribution, and top trader PnL health.
  3. Size your bets based on the Kelly criterion formula, considering probabilities of success and potential bet gains. Tactical execution includes recycling costs, dollar-cost averaging, and follow-on investments.

The US labor market is much weaker than we have been told

Global Markets Investor • 7 HN points • 15 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The US labor market is weaker than portrayed in headlines, with data revisions indicating lower job growth than initially reported.
  2. There has been a rise in part-time jobs and multiple jobholders, while full-time jobs have decreased, presenting a concerning trend for the US economy.
  3. Analysis of native vs foreign-born employment shows a significant difference, indicating that job creation in the US has been largely driven by immigrants in recent years.
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Economic Calendar for the Week of November 24, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Events Market Analysis Earnings Reports Global trends
  1. Thanksgiving is coming up, and it's a good time to take a break and enjoy the holiday with family.
  2. This week will see some tech earnings and IPOs, including the self-driving software company Pony.ai going public.
  3. Economic events are happening in the U.S. and globally, with various reports on jobless claims, consumer confidence, and business confidence scheduled.

Forecast: Multifamily Starts will Decline Sharply

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Housing
  1. Due to household formation slowing down, multifamily starts are expected to decrease significantly.
  2. Freddie Mac reports that multifamily delinquencies have tripled year-over-year, indicating a potential decline in multifamily construction.
  3. Data points show that factors like softening asking rents, increased vacancy rates, tighter lending, and higher interest rates are contributing to the decline in multifamily starts.

Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Economics Market Trends Housing
  1. Residential investment is likely to see a small increase in 2024, which is a positive shift after two years of decline.
  2. Housing starts for single-family homes are expected to remain stable, while multi-family starts may drop a bit more in 2025.
  3. New home sales are projected to rise by about 5% in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the housing market.

Energy Security Concerns Driving Low Carbon Investments

Helix • 19 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investments Energy Climate Inflation Global Markets
  1. The war in Ukraine has highlighted global energy security risks and increased focus on low carbon investments.
  2. Low carbon investments and M&A activities are rising due to the geopolitical shifts caused by the war
  3. The US Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 promotes green investment and aims to reduce emissions, jobs creation, and economic growth.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Data Local Economy Real Estate
  1. Local housing markets in October showed the first year-over-year sales gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for home sales.
  2. The analysis includes over 40 local markets, comparing current data to October 2019. This helps understand how the market has changed over time.
  3. Active listings, new listings, and closed sales are being tracked, giving a clearer picture of the housing market's performance.

Ancova Energy Market Update

Ancova • 19 implied HN points • 04 May 23
💰 Finance Energy Market Crude Oil Natural Gas Rig Count Natural Gas Liquids
  1. Crude oil prices have been falling due to various factors like interest rate hikes and negative consumer sentiment.
  2. The U.S. rig count has dropped below 800 for the first time since April 2022, with expectations of activity picking up later in the year.
  3. Natural gas futures are facing pressure from oversupply, subdued demand, and falling prices in the Midcontinent region.

Saturday Curiosity Links

Grist Potentia • 19 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economics History
  1. On July 1, 1941, Myron Scholes, the Canadian-American financial economist, was born in Ontario.
  2. Myron Scholes began his journey into Economics early through his Uncles' businesses and investments in the stock market.
  3. Myron Scholes is known for developing the Black-Scholes model with Fischer Black.

Thank you Silicon Valley Bank...

mainstreetjournal • 19 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Community Investment Local
  1. Locally owned banks and credit unions offer lower fees, fewer defaults, and higher interest payouts.
  2. Community banks benefit local business and exhibit restraint on risky behavior compared to mid-sized banks like SVB.
  3. SVB's failure highlights the need for public banking, particularly for unbanked individuals and communities without local banks.

Both a borrower and a lender being?

The Jolly Contrarian • 19 implied HN points • 17 Jun 23
💰 Finance Debt Contracts
  1. Debt securities involve complex processes with multiple bureaucratic steps before they are issued in the market.
  2. If an issuer holds their own promissory note, the debt might be considered non-existent due to the concept of merger.
  3. Bearer instruments lack a history, leading to unique challenges in determining debt continuity and the involvement of clearing systems adds layers of complexity to debt transactions.

Payment of the Seas

Money in Transit • 19 implied HN points • 14 Aug 23
💰 Finance Payments Credit Cards
  1. Credit cards offer flexibility in payment not provided by cash or checks.
  2. Card transactions go through initialization, authorization, and capture stages for security and efficiency.
  3. Companies like Visa and Mastercard simplify transactions by connecting merchants with various banks.

🌟 A gold star for every crypto journo and researcher 🌟

Association of Cryptocurrency Journalists and Researchers • 19 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Crypto Blockchain Journalism Research Policy
  1. Summer has been busy in the crypto world, with many important stories and events.
  2. The best crypto journalism from June and July covers a variety of topics such as SEC actions, hoaxes, and industry updates.
  3. Top crypto research and policy discussions focus on DAOs, stablecoins, cryptography, and global identity issues.

Ancova Energy Market Update

Ancova • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jul 23
💰 Finance Energy Market Oil Natural Gas Rig Count
  1. Crude oil prices are rising due to various positive factors like OPEC cuts and a weaker US Dollar.
  2. IEA has reduced its oil demand growth forecast, but still expects global demand to be at record highs.
  3. Natural gas prices are stable despite increased demand, thanks to record production levels and high storage.

Fintechs, you are not a super-app; The 10 biggest fintech companies in America 2023; Open finance: The opportunity to support small businesses;

Fintech Wrap Up • 19 implied HN points • 14 Jun 23
💰 Finance Fintech AI Cryptocurrency Regulation
  1. Fintech companies should be honest about their capabilities and avoid prematurely labeling themselves as super-apps.
  2. Affirm has partnered with Amazon Pay to offer buy now, pay later options for U.S. merchants and customers.
  3. Open Finance presents an opportunity to support small businesses by improving standards, data-sharing, and access to finance.

Ford electric vehicle loss forecast highlights big week to come for EV investors

Callaway Climate Insights • 19 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Electric Vehicles Investing Climate finance Policy Environmental Impact
  1. Ford is forecasted to lose up to $3 billion in its electric vehicle division due to necessary investments.
  2. Investors are anticipating the Treasury's guidance on which electric vehicles will qualify for tax subsidies.
  3. The EV industry is expected to grow significantly, with automakers racing to develop affordable and reliable EVs.

Ancova Energy Markets Update

Ancova • 19 implied HN points • 06 Apr 23
💰 Finance Energy markets Crude Oil Natural Gas
  1. The crude oil market has seen a sharp rebound due to OPEC+ cuts and increased demand, keeping prices above $80/bbl.
  2. The U.S rig count rose by nine, with Permian seeing a slight drop, indicating stability in oil-heavy basins.
  3. Natural gas futures stayed above $2 with weather impacts and reduced demand, while the EIA reported a slight decrease in storage levels.