The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Investing for Alpha or Beta?

Equal Ventures • 19 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Market Dynamics Risk management
  1. Venture capital industry can exhibit herd behavior and be consensus-driven, deviating from contrarian thinking.
  2. Investors chasing beta during market peaks can lead to significant losses when the market corrects, highlighting the importance of sound investment strategies.
  3. Sticking to core investment sectors, avoiding chasing trends, and focusing on long-term conviction can lead to sustainable returns independent of market cycles.

Miners are Profiting Without Mining

Miner Weekly • 19 implied HN points • 07 Aug 23
💰 Finance Mining Regulation Hardware Infrastructure Corporate
  1. Mining companies are finding ways to profit without traditional mining, utilizing strategies like energy sales and renting out hashpower.
  2. Charts comparing bitcoin production and realized hashrate of mining companies show a difference due to flexible use of proprietary hashrate for various purposes.
  3. The evolving use of proprietary hashrate by mining companies highlights their adaptability to changing conditions in the industry.

Treasury Management Strategy

nicosmid • 19 implied HN points • 07 Mar 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Mining
  1. The post discusses treasury management strategy for Bitcoin mining operations.
  2. It covers strategies and techniques to manage cash flow and reduce financial risks.
  3. The importance of effective treasury management to succeed in the volatile Bitcoin mining sector.
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An Introduction

Irrational Analysis • 19 implied HN points • 19 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Technology Analysis Newsletter
  1. The author shares their journey of pursuing their dream job of chip designing and how it led to their current obsession with semiconductors and investing.
  2. The newsletter 'Irrational Analysis' focuses on high-risk, high-reward investing with a strong emphasis on technology-driven investment analysis over traditional metrics.
  3. Transparency is vital to the author, who discloses all active positions and emphasizes that the newsletter's content is based on public information and independent research.

The Wild Nature of Correlations

Reminiscences Of A Young & Naïve Financier • 19 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Correlations Market Analysis Asset allocation Financial Modeling
  1. Correlations vary widely over different time intervals, affecting asset allocation decisions.
  2. Shorter time intervals show smaller correlations, while longer intervals have greater variability.
  3. Conservative estimates of correlations using consistent shorter intervals may be more reliable for projecting into the future.

Understanding the Tech Crash [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 59 implied HN points • 14 May 22
💰 Finance Stock Market Economy Career growth Investing Personal Finance
  1. The value of stocks dropping doesn't mean the company is losing cash; it's about stock prices. The business and cash flow are different.
  2. Economic cycles like hiring freezes are common; industries go through ups and downs.
  3. Despite tech slowdowns, opportunities exist; focus on developing skills and profile to thrive.

Improving factor returns through structural factors

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
💰 Finance Asset management Asset allocation Portfolio Construction Investment strategy Risk management Quantitative finance
  1. Reported factor returns are partly driven by changing valuation multiples, not just fundamentals; removing those valuation effects reveals a structural premium that better reflects underlying, fundamental-driven returns.
  2. Valuation-driven revaluation effects shrink over longer horizons, so structural factor returns become more important for long-term investors and should guide long-term factor weightings.
  3. Constructing multi-factor portfolios using structural premiums improves expected long-term performance versus conventional approaches, though investors will still experience realized valuation swings that cannot be hedged.

Regime is Collapsing

Malt Liquidity • 31 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Economics Regulations Market Trends Wealth Management
  1. Market regimes change, and recognizing this can help avoid losses. Just like in a movie, understanding what's real can prevent you from getting stuck in a bad situation.
  2. Recent changes in government policies and market behavior mean it's time to rethink traditional investing strategies. You should consider how different sectors will perform under new rules.
  3. Inflation impacts wealth distribution, and predicting its effects is crucial. Adjusting investment strategies to navigate inflation and potential downturns is important for healthier future markets.

The "New Normal" Mortgage Rate Range

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Federal Reserve Inflation Economy
  1. Real estate agents suggest that mortgage rates may decrease to around 5% or lower once inflation is back to the 2% target.
  2. Current 30-year mortgage rates are at 7.26%, significantly higher than the 3.5% to 5% range prior to the pandemic.
  3. Expectations do not foresee a return to 3% mortgage rates unless there is another crisis.

Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Employment Surveys Demographics Labor Market
  1. The Household Survey and Establishment Survey both track employment, but there was a significant gap in their growth estimates over the years. Recent updates have nearly closed this gap.
  2. New population estimates showed that previous estimates of employment growth were too low, mainly due to underestimating international migration. This has led to a big revision upward in the Household Survey employment numbers.
  3. Now, both surveys show similar employment growth trends, which suggests that the labor market may not be as weak as previously thought.

Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends Monetary Policy Risk management
  1. It's important to consider that you could be wrong about the market crashing; sometimes things can go up instead of down. Keeping an open mind helps in understanding the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Thinking about worst-case scenarios can be useful, even if they seem unlikely. It’s good to prepare yourself mentally for different outcomes.
  3. Rethinking your assumptions is healthy, especially when the market behaves in ways that don't make sense. Questioning yourself can lead to growth and better insights.

Easing Into Expansion

The Last Bear Standing • 24 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Economic data Market Trends Credit Markets
  1. Inflation is complex and influenced by many factors, making it hard to pinpoint why prices change. It often feels like a guessing game without clear answers.
  2. The market reacts strongly to data on inflation, analyzing numbers intensely, but sometimes it loses sight of the bigger picture, like underlying economic trends.
  3. Current monetary policies have shifted, and while they initially helped reduce inflation, signs suggest that prices may be climbing again as the economy changes.

When Big Finance Enters the Space Industry

Intersections (by Filip) • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investment Banking Venture Capital Relationship building
  1. Finance plays a crucial role in the space industry, with the need for understanding how big finance impacts space startups, from funding to strategic decisions.
  2. The field of finance exists to facilitate the flow of capital between households with savings and companies needing funding, focusing on growth and return on investment.
  3. Different investor types have varying expectations for returns, so it's important to align funding sources with the goals and growth plans of a startup to secure sustainable growth.

Value to Mine

The Last Bear Standing • 34 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Analysis
  1. Gold prices are rising sharply due to global monetary easing, reaching new highs. This boost has also lifted the prices of large-cap gold mining stocks.
  2. While higher gold prices can lead to greater revenue for miners, increased operating costs can eat into profits. It's essential to consider both sides to understand the miners' performance.
  3. Different gold mining companies have unique challenges and potential for profit. Understanding these differences is crucial if you're looking to invest in gold mining stocks.

How Big Was Bitcoin's Mining Profit Squeeze After Halving?

Miner Weekly • 3 HN points • 30 May 24
💰 Finance Mining Companies Financial News Corporate News Feature
  1. Bitcoin's hashrate stayed above 600 EH/s in the month following its fourth halving event, despite a slight decline from April.
  2. The daily production benchmark for Bitcoin decreased by 45% in May compared to April, impacting major public mining companies.
  3. News of Riot's proposed takeover of Bitfarms has stirred market interest, potentially positioning Riot as a significant player in Bitcoin mining.

The EU has approved regulations regarding instant payments

philsiarri • 67 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Regulations Financial Sector
  1. The EU has approved regulations for instant euro payments within ten seconds, benefiting consumers and businesses in EU and EEA countries.
  2. Payment service providers, including banks, are required to offer instant payment services without any added costs, enhancing convenience for users.
  3. The regulations aim to enhance trust with IBAN and name verification, strengthen European payment firms against global competitors, and reduce dependence on non-European financial entities.

N₂O: Revisiting the best Nuclear Investment Vehicle

Olshansky's Newsletter • 22 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends ETFs
  1. Investing in nuclear ETFs can help broaden your exposure to the nuclear sector beyond just uranium. This diversification can be important for capturing growth in the industry.
  2. There are several ETFs available that focus on different aspects of the nuclear supply chain. It's good to compare their performances and see which aligns with your investment goals.
  3. Keep monitoring the performance and news related to nuclear investments, as the sector is rapidly evolving and may present new opportunities.

Forward Guidance

The Last Bear Standing • 133 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Dot Plot is the Fed's way of showing where they think interest rates will go in the future.
  2. Yield Curve Control is when central banks adjust short-term and long-term rates to tackle inflation and maintain financial stability.
  3. The Fed's Dilemma involves trying to raise rates to tackle inflation while avoiding destabilizing long-duration assets and maintaining financial stability.

Financial Repression Isn't What It Used To Be

European Straits • 10 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investment Economics Policy Markets Capital
  1. Financial repression happens when governments guide savings into projects they choose, even if people could get better returns elsewhere. This is a way for countries to manage their economies during tough times.
  2. In the past, developing countries used financial repression to grow quickly, but now it can signal that advanced economies are facing decline. It's like trying to hold onto past success instead of moving forward.
  3. The decision to use financial repression comes from having too much available money and not enough good places to invest it. It can prevent citizens from making their own financial choices and aims to keep the economy stable.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Housing Market Debt Management
  1. Homeowners are extracting less equity from their homes compared to the past, which is a positive sign for the housing market stability.
  2. Despite a slight rise in negative equity, most homeowners still have significant equity in their homes, which helps buffer against market downturns.
  3. Mortgage debt is rising, but it remains a lower percentage of GDP compared to the peak during the housing bubble, indicating healthier borrowing practices.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.5% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 66 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 5.5% year-over-year in December, showing a trend of rising prices. This was the smallest increase since prices declined in January 2023, hinting at some market fluctuations.
  2. The FHFA House Price Index indicated a 6.5% rise in prices over the last year, with a 0.1% increase in December, pointing towards a steady rise in housing prices despite signs of softening in the market.
  3. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, with regions like San Diego, Los Angeles, and Detroit showing significant increases. The Composite 10, Composite 20, and National indices all reached new all-time highs.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Economic Trends Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 4th, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Earnings Reports Economic Indicators Interest Rates Market Trends Inflation
  1. This week has a packed economic calendar with important earnings reports coming from big companies like New York Times and Qualcomm.
  2. The U.S. elections are on Tuesday, which could distract from other economic updates but are still very important.
  3. Thursday is crucial as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on interest rates, along with jobless claims data and several company earnings.

Bailout Brink

Three quarks • 128 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economics Banking Cryptocurrency Financial system Market Trends
  1. The 2008 recession drastically impacted the trajectories and beliefs of different generations, shaping their careers and perspectives on work.
  2. The shift from 20th-century life-work balance to 21st-century always-on freelancing has redefined how we engage with news, videos, and money.
  3. Financial crises like the recession reveal the deep intersection between economy, personal identities, and societal structures, prompting reflections on the role of banks, governments, and personal financial management.

Money Supply Growth Accelerates And Hits A 27-Month High

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Money Supply Economic Policy Interest Rates Government spending Inflation
  1. The money supply in the economy is growing rapidly, reaching a high not seen in over two years. This growth is mainly driven by government spending rather than strong economic conditions.
  2. Interest rates are being pushed down by the Federal Reserve to help manage the government's large debt. This could lead to future inflation as more money is created to handle increasing deficits.
  3. Despite recent economic growth, many believe it isn't based on solid foundations. The reliance on government spending and credit could pose risks for the economy moving forward.