The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

New Model Portfolio: "Decent Dividends"

Theory A : Visualize Value Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Dividends Stocks Portfolio Analysis
  1. New model portfolio 'Decent Dividends' aims to find companies with healthy cash flow and commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders.
  2. The portfolio includes stocks like ABBV, VZ, and EOG that show potential for dividend yield and price appreciation.
  3. Using Theory A allows investors to screen and analyze stocks based on various financial factors for long-term investment decisions.

The Luddite's Guide to Defending Cash (Part 1)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 2 HN points • 08 May 23
💰 Finance Cash Digital Payments Resilience Privacy
  1. Cash plays a crucial role in balancing the power dynamics of digital money.
  2. The narrative of a cashless society being a 'progressive upgrade' overlooks essential aspects of financial resilience and inclusion.
  3. Digital payment systems can lead to excessive centralization, loss of autonomy, and potential privacy concerns, highlighting the importance of maintaining a balance between cash and digital options.

Persistence > performance

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Momentum Returns Strategies
  1. Persistence of performance is more important than pure price momentum in predicting future returns.
  2. The Directional High Minus Low (D-HML) strategy focuses on the persistence of positive returns to generate excess returns of around 1% per month.
  3. D-HML strategy offers more downside protection during extreme drawdowns compared to traditional momentum strategies.

Home bias everywhere

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 18 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Corporate Governance
  1. Investors tend to favor domestic companies over foreign ones not only in investment portfolios but also in shareholder voting decisions.
  2. Shareholders show a bias towards voting in favor of management proposals, especially in contentious issues, with a significant preference for domestic companies.
  3. Factors like potential business ties, governance rules, and information quality contribute to this home bias in voting behavior, making it challenging to hold domestic company managers accountable.
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The Fate of Crypto Rises and Falls on One Legal Question

Vitarbi • 2 HN points • 30 Mar 23
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Securities Regulations Investment Legal
  1. The fate of cryptocurrency relies heavily on one legal question about whether certain digital assets should be considered securities under the Howey Test.
  2. The Howey Test is used to determine if a financial instrument is a security by assessing if there's an investment of money in a common enterprise expecting profits from others' efforts.
  3. Being labeled an unregistered security in the crypto industry can lead to severe consequences, including fines and damage to reputation.

The Coinbase Curse Revisited: Deadcoins Are a Harsh Lesson

startups and econ (Fais Khan) • 2 HN points • 29 Mar 23
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Investing Regulation Market Manipulation Venture Capital
  1. Coinbase listings have significantly underperformed in the past year, with many coins down more than 90%.
  2. VCs, like a16z, have seen significant losses on their crypto investments, underperforming BTC and ETH.
  3. FTX and Binance have raised concerns over market manipulation and lack of transparency in their operations.

You hit my soft spot…

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Funds Market Analysis
  1. Active fund management may have an advantage in less efficient markets like UK small- and mid-caps.
  2. Due to reduced research and liquidity, UK small- and mid-caps have become under-researched and may present opportunities for generating alpha.
  3. Shares in UK small- and mid-caps sometimes follow macro trends over fundamentals, but a shift can lead to significant outperformance.

The very real effects of consumers’ hopes

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Consumer behavior Economic Indicators Consumer confidence
  1. Consumer sentiment surveys are essential indicators for future consumption, but some specific questions like the outlook on major purchases can predict consumption better than headline figures.
  2. Consumers tend to be overly optimistic about their future family finances compared to the overall economy, which can impact future consumption growth.
  3. The level of ex ante optimism, comparing expectations for family finances and the economy, can be a powerful predictor of future consumption growth, while ex post optimism influences savings ratios and credit usage.

Post-earnings announcement drift is not just for equities

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Bonds Market Performance Strategies
  1. Post-earnings announcement drift exists for both stocks and corporate bonds, not just equities. This phenomenon occurs when stock or bond prices do not react as expected to earnings data, presenting an investment opportunity.
  2. Investors can exploit post-earnings announcement drift by buying stocks or bonds with positive earnings surprises that are undervalued and selling those with negative surprises that are overvalued.
  3. Implementing a long-short strategy based on post-earnings announcement drift for corporate bonds can result in significant annual returns and alpha, outperforming other bond investment strategies.

Lawler: Some Thoughts on Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 1 HN point • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Quantitative Tightening (QT) involves reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, but it is not a complete reversal of Quantitative Easing (QE).
  2. QE involved purchasing assets to influence interest rates, like putting pressure on long-term interest rates to stimulate the economy.
  3. The impact of Fed Treasury and MBS purchases has significantly altered the maturity profile of government obligations held by the private sector and influenced interest rates.

Stock-based Employee Compensation: Value and Pricing Effects

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 14
💰 Finance Financial Analysis Corporate Finance Accounting Valuation
  1. Stock-based compensation is an expense that affects a company's earnings. It should be counted and not ignored because it represents a real cost to the business.
  2. Adjusting financial metrics like profits to remove stock-based compensation can be misleading. It can make a company look more profitable than it really is, especially when comparing with others that don’t do the same.
  3. The way companies handle stock-based compensation can impact their valuation. Analysts need to account for this properly to get an accurate picture of a company's worth.

What happens if China sneezes?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Global Markets Commodities Equities
  1. Commodity prices are sensitive to both Chinese and US macro developments, with oil reacting similarly to both.
  2. Global equities are less sensitive to Chinese shocks compared to US shocks, needing a larger Chinese shock to create a similar reaction.
  3. While the impact on global equities from the Chinese economy might be smaller than a US recession, a large enough shock from China could still derail global equity markets.

Is There a Simpson's Paradox Lurking In the Wage Growth Data?

Gideon's Substack • 1 HN point • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy Jobs Wages Productivity
  1. Today was a good day for economic news, boosting Biden's political fortunes and allowing the Fed to go slow with rate cuts.
  2. Changes in the educational composition of the workforce may have caused a surge in productivity and influenced wage growth data.
  3. It's important to look at the data from different angles to understand discrepancies and reveal important complexities.

Everybody Hates Gary

Malt Liquidity • 1 implied HN point • 12 Sep 23
💰 Finance Securities Regulation Market structure Compliance
  1. Defining a fair market is complex and involves intricate operations and risk mitigation strategies.
  2. The SEC's role encompasses protecting investors, maintaining market fairness, and facilitating capital formation.
  3. Increased SEC regulations may unintentionally benefit large players, making it crucial to close loopholes accessible only to wealthy investors.

Paymentspotting

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 1 HN point • 31 Aug 23
💰 Finance
  1. Money is not just a singular entity - it comes in different layers, forms, and issuers.
  2. Understanding the different types of payments can help break through common misconceptions like the One Type Of Money Illusion.
  3. Different payments, such as government money creation, loans, and cash transactions, have impacts on the overall money supply and the power dynamics between money issuers.

Ăn thì nhiều chứ ở bao nhiêu

Thái | Hacker | Kỹ sư tin tặc • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 11
💰 Finance Real Estate Personal Finance Investing Debt Management Wealth Building
  1. When considering buying a house, it's essential to have enough money to avoid financial strain.
  2. Owning material possessions can come with added burdens and responsibilities.
  3. Investing in experiences, caring for loved ones, learning new things, and making a positive impact can bring more happiness than just owning property.

Money Money Money

De Novo • 1 HN point • 16 Apr 23
💰 Finance Funding Research Government
  1. Research funding is expensive and costs are continually rising
  2. Private funding can be quicker with higher chances of approval, but can have cons like non-standard terms and potential funding disappearance
  3. University administrators can pose bureaucratic challenges in processing funds and extracting overhead fees

Zen and the Art of CBDC Analysis (Part 1)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 1 HN point • 13 Feb 23
💰 Finance Central Bank Digital Currency Banking Sector Stablecoins
  1. Economies are supported by layers of money from the government, banking sector, and corporations, providing choices to citizens.
  2. The concept of a cashless society has evolved with the emergence of central bank digital currency (CBDC), sparking increasing interest and discussion.
  3. The development of CBDCs highlights a complex interplay between private sector interests, potential threats to financial stability, and the evolving role of central banks in the modern financial landscape.

Avoiding 10 Years of Market Stagnation

Jay's Data Stream • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing Markets Asset allocation Risk management Personal Finance Commodities International Markets
  1. The market looks expensive and history shows high valuations often lead to mediocre returns over the next decade, so future long-term gains may be limited.
  2. There’s no one right move for everyone — the best choice depends on your age, income, risk tolerance, and how much loss you can emotionally and financially handle.
  3. Instead of trying to time the market, focus on resilience: diversify new savings into bonds, international stocks, or gold, and make sure you could survive drawing from investments during a long downturn.

Germany will struggle to loosen its debt break

Klement on Investing • 0 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Debt Management Government Policy Public Spending Investment strategy
  1. Germany has a strict rule called the 'debt brake' that limits how much money the government can borrow and spend. Changing this rule is not as easy as some people think.
  2. There is a belief among some experts that the next German government will loosen this rule to allow more investment. However, there are significant challenges that may prevent this from happening.
  3. Public discussions often overlook the complexity of Germany's fiscal rules, leading to misunderstandings about how changes might be made. It's important to recognize the deeper issues at play.

Hedging hedge funds have higher (h)returns

Klement on Investing • 0 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Hedge Funds Risk management Market Analysis Performance Metrics
  1. Hedge funds can actually reduce their risks internally, which helps them perform better. They don't just rely on external factors.
  2. Most hedge funds have realized risks that are lower than expected, known as a negative risk gap. This can boost their overall returns.
  3. Funds that manage their risks well tend to have higher performance, while those that take on more risks often do worse.

On Strengthening American Leadership in Financial Technology

domsteil • 0 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Fintech Cryptocurrency Regulation Payments Digital Assets
  1. The U.S. needs to create a supportive environment for financial technology so that innovation can thrive. This means having clear rules and regulations for businesses to follow.
  2. Developing a U.S.-led payment system using stablecoins can help improve cross-border transactions. It aims to keep the dollar strong in international trade.
  3. It's important to set clear categories and regulations for different types of tokens, like security tokens and commercial tokens. This will help businesses understand what is allowed and protect consumers.

Get the full analyst treatment (without hiring one)

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Valuation AI Tools Market Analysis
  1. Many investors often pay too much for stocks or miss good ones because their analysis isn't thorough enough. ValuationBot helps fix that by providing detailed evaluations.
  2. ValuationBot uses AI to give you quick and smart stock valuations, similar to advice from a hedge-fund analyst. You can get a full report in just 10 minutes.
  3. The service allows you to test your own ideas and gives access to a downloadable Excel model for each stock. You can try your first valuation for a low price with a money-back guarantee.

Hedge-fund quality valuations in minutes

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Financial Analysis Market research Risk Assessment
  1. You can get detailed investment analysis and valuation reports in just 10 minutes with this tool. It's designed to save you a lot of time compared to traditional methods.
  2. The platform helps you spot hidden risks and compare stocks against industry standards easily. This can be really useful for making informed investment decisions.
  3. There are no monthly fees, and your credits never expire. Plus, you can try the first report risk-free, so it's a low-risk way to see if it works for you.

[P] VYX: Checking Out in 2025? (Part 2)

Nongaap Investing • 0 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Trading Analysis
  1. Understanding incentives is key for making good investment decisions. It helps to know what drives people and companies to act a certain way.
  2. Activism can influence businesses significantly. Sometimes, outside pressures can lead to changes in a company's strategy or focus.
  3. Planning for the future is important in investments. Looking ahead to 2025 means considering all possible outcomes and options available.

Summary of "Balancing Acts: Safe Withdrawal Rates in the Indian Context"

Kartick’s Blog • 0 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Retirement Portfolio Management Financial planning Risk management
  1. When planning retirement withdrawals, it's crucial to find a safe rate to ensure you don’t run out of money. A study suggests a rate of around 2.8% for a retirement period of 35 years.
  2. A balanced investment approach is important. Including about 10% in gold can help reduce the risk of running out of funds during retirement.
  3. Real returns, defined as returns after inflation, matter a lot. It's important to consider inflation when calculating withdrawal amounts to maintain your lifestyle.