The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Quant Letter: December 2025, Week-3

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💰 Finance Quant Finance Algorithmic Trading Risk management Pricing Models Machine Learning Research Papers
  1. A walk‑forward validation method for algorithmic trading focuses on interpretability and robust testing, aiming for modest gains while strongly protecting against big losses.
  2. A model‑free static framework for pricing fixed‑income instruments offers an alternative to traditional model-based pricing approaches.
  3. A curated summary of recent arXiv finance papers is provided, with a free preview available and full access offered via paid subscription.

Quant Letter: March 2024, Week-2

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Quantitative finance
  1. The post discusses a new rank volatility model for large equity markets that aligns well with empirical data and allows for relative arbitrage.
  2. A new framework for pricing debt securities under varying short-rate differences is introduced.
  3. Readers can access the full post and archives with a 7-day free trial subscription to Machine Learning & Quant Finance.

hindsight bias

Thái | Hacker | Kỹ sư tin tặc • 0 implied HN points • 21 May 08
💰 Finance Behavioral Finance Investing Market Analysis Risk management Financial Institutions
  1. Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe that outcomes were predictable, even though they may not have been at the time.
  2. People often overestimate their ability to predict future events based on their perceived success in predicting past events.
  3. There are numerous factors that can influence stock market outcomes, making it difficult to accurately predict future market behavior.
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Equity Risk Premiums: The 2011 Edition

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 25 Feb 11
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Corporate Finance Market Analysis Valuation Investment Risk management Corporate Finance Market Analysis Valuation
  1. The equity risk premium is how much more investors expect to earn from stocks compared to risk-free investments. It's influenced by how investors feel about the market.
  2. There are three main ways to estimate the equity risk premium: surveying people's opinions, looking at historical data, and calculating future expectations based on current stock prices.
  3. Which equity risk premium to use depends on your situation. If you’re assessing a company based on current market conditions, use today's implied premium; long-term investors can take a broader view.

Deep-Tech Newsletter | November 2022.

Deep-Tech Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 10 Nov 22
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Investment Technology Blockchain Economy
  1. The crypto world is facing challenges due to liquidity issues and potential bankruptcy at FTX, impacting several high-profile VC-backed crypto projects.
  2. This situation might lead to VCs bailing out crypto projects to maintain reputation, exposing flaws in the crypto ecosystem focused on short-term gains rather than long-term value.
  3. Despite the current turmoil, Zaiku Group remains optimistic about the potential of tokenization to revolutionize assets like money, art, and shares, with a focus on decentralized ownership and blockchain management.

Macro Thinker: Lawrence Summers on Trump and The Fed

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banking Macroeconomics Fiscal policy Financial Stability Trade policy Political Economy
  1. The Fed is tightening too much too quickly; policymakers should allow a mild overshoot of the 2% inflation target and seriously consider new frameworks like a higher inflation target or nominal GDP targeting.
  2. The biggest macro risk is a coming recession when monetary policy may have little room to cut rates and fiscal authorities might be unwilling to act, so governments and central banks should prepare now.
  3. Crises often require government-led spending and borrowing to restore confidence, and at the same time waning trust in experts and growing speech intolerance on campuses threaten open debate and sound policymaking.

Slippery Slope: An Interview with Citigroup's Edward Morse

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💰 Finance Commodities Oil & Gas Energy Markets Geopolitics Investing Emerging Markets
  1. Since 2014, U.S. shale plus oil sands and deepwater supply made oil much more responsive and eroded OPEC’s price power. That structural change likely keeps oil in a roughly $40–$65 per barrel range in the medium term.
  2. Renewables, natural gas, and electric vehicles are slowly eating into oil’s remaining strongholds (transport and petrochemicals), so fossil fuels’ share of energy should shrink long term and petrostates face capped revenues and greater fiscal stress.
  3. Improved productivity and cost declines have opened real opportunities in unconventional and deepwater plays (e.g., Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, Mexico, North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Brazil), though geopolitical shocks like a Saudi–Iran conflict could still cause sharp, but unlikely, price spikes.

Buffett and Black-Scholes

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 01 Mar 11
💰 Finance Investing Options Valuation Models Academics Investing Market Analysis Valuation Risk management Derivatives
  1. Warren Buffett believes the Black-Scholes model gives bad values for long-term options, which is a viewpoint that some disagree with.
  2. Buffett's opinions on option valuation may not consider newer methods that adjust the Black-Scholes model for better accuracy.
  3. You can still be a successful investor without knowing how to value options, as long as you avoid investments that rely heavily on them.

Margin of Safety: An alternative risk assessment tool?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 16 Apr 11
💰 Finance Investment Risk Assessment Valuation Market Analysis Value investing Investment Risk Assessment Valuation Market Analysis Value investing
  1. Margin of Safety (MOS) is used at the end of the investment process, only after finding good companies and estimating their value. It's not helpful to think about MOS earlier in the process.
  2. MOS enhances risk assessment and intrinsic valuation but doesn’t replace them. You still need good estimates of value to use MOS effectively.
  3. The MOS should vary based on how certain you are about the intrinsic value. It's not a fixed number, as different stocks and situations come with different levels of uncertainty.

Breach of Trust: Bank Valuation after the banking crisis

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 29 Mar 11
💰 Finance Banking Valuation Investment Regulation Market risk Banking Investing Regulation Valuation Risk management
  1. Investors used to trust banks because they thought regulations kept them in check. Now, that trust is gone, and we can’t just assume all banks will act responsibly anymore.
  2. The way banks determine dividends and capital requirements has changed. We should look at expected growth and regulatory needs instead of just past dividends to judge their value.
  3. Banks need to be more open about their finances and risks. This means clearer details in their financial statements so investors can make better-informed decisions.

Alternatives to the CAPM: Part 1: Relative Risk Measures

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 28 Apr 11
💰 Finance Investment Risk management Asset Pricing Market Analysis Corporate Finance Asset Pricing Investment Theory Risk management Corporate Finance Market Analysis
  1. The CAPM model has flaws and many people have shifted to using better methods for measuring risk and estimating returns. It's criticized for being too simple and for its dependence on past market prices.
  2. Multi Beta Models and Market Price based Models offer alternatives to CAPM by considering multiple factors or standard deviations instead of relying on a single market beta. These models are intended to improve return estimates but have their own complexities.
  3. Accounting information based models use a company's financial health as a measure of risk. They connect risk to fundamental business factors but can be misleading due to the way accounting numbers are reported.

What would you most like to learn in Quant Finance?

Quantitative Finance - Research, Trading, Investing, & Algos • 0 implied HN points • 03 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Trading Research Analytics Quantitative
  1. Learning about stochastic calculus, like Brownian motion and Itô’s Lemma, is important for understanding financial models. These concepts help us predict how prices will change over time.
  2. Mastering derivatives pricing, including the Black-Scholes model, is crucial for anyone dealing with options and risk management. It helps you figure out how much options should be worth.
  3. Exploring portfolio optimization techniques, like mean-variance, can help investors make better choices about how to allocate their money. It's about balancing risk and return effectively.

Transactions Costs and Beating the Market

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 15 Feb 10
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Portfolio Management Behavioral Finance Transaction Costs Investing Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Portfolio Management Trading Strategies
  1. There are many ways to beat the market that sound good on paper, but very few fund managers actually succeed in doing it consistently in real life.
  2. One major reason for this failure is the impact of transaction costs, which include fees from buying and selling stocks and the difference between buying and selling prices.
  3. While the market has inefficiencies, it's difficult for investors to profit from them in practice, making real investment success much harder than it seems.

The Fed Effect: Central Banks and Equity Value

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 21 Feb 10
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economic Growth Equity markets Inflation Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economic Growth
  1. Central banks like the Federal Reserve influence stock prices in complex ways. A small rise in interest rates doesn't always mean bad news for stocks as their effects can vary.
  2. Short-term interest rates can drop when central banks raise rates, which might be seen as a move to control inflation. This action can sometimes lead to lower long-term rates.
  3. The credibility of a central bank matters a lot. If it’s seen as strong and effective, a rate increase can be viewed positively, suggesting the economy is strong enough to handle it.

Alternatives to the CAPM: Wrapping up

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Apr 11
💰 Finance Investment Risk management Valuation Market Analysis Financial Models Investment Risk Valuation Methods Financial Analysis Market Theory Equity Research
  1. Ignoring risk in investments is a big mistake. You need your own way to measure and manage risk because investments have different levels of risk.
  2. Using numbers is important for valuing companies, but don't forget the stories behind them. The results in numbers should reflect the company's real situation.
  3. Keep your methods simple. A straightforward approach, like CAPM, can be useful, and it's important to question and refine your risk assessment regularly.

5 Questions to Ask Before Investing in a Fixer-Upper

Austin's Analects • 0 implied HN points • 02 Jun 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Time management
  1. Assess the extent of work needed on the fixer-upper to avoid unexpected challenges and costs.
  2. Consider if the investment in a fixer-upper is truly worth your time, effort, and money compared to alternative options.
  3. Evaluate if you have the necessary time, skills, and determination to manage the renovation process effectively before committing to a fixer-upper.

Extension of inflation model before 1948

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation Balance Economic Policy Gold Standard
  1. The historical analysis shows how money flows, such as trade surpluses and fiscal deficits, can impact inflation and economic stability.
  2. The gold standard had a notable impact on economic conditions, causing deflation and influencing policies like interest rates and money supply.
  3. Active economic policy interventions, like wage and price controls during wartime, demonstrated effectiveness in controlling inflation and stabilizing the economy.

Stock market paradigms

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 21 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Market Analysis Stock Valuation Financial Policy
  1. Stock market valuation tools need to evolve with changing market paradigms, as seen with the shift in P/R values over time
  2. The emergence of new market paradigms, like one that disconnects stock market value from underlying company value, can impact stock market behavior
  3. Historically, stock market paradigms have shifted based on economic cultures and policy changes, influencing investor behavior and market trends

MANIFESTO

Erasmus’s Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 08 Apr 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Currency Economy Adoption Corporate
  1. Bitcoin has a built-in path to $1 million and beyond, presenting a strong case for becoming the world's reserve currency.
  2. Corporate adoption is crucial for Bitcoin's widespread acceptance and transition into a global reserve currency.
  3. Bitcoin 2.0 introduces the SAT as a currency, aiming to disrupt the current monetary system and address key issues like inflation and currency value.

Default and Bankruptcy: Black, white and shades of grey

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jul 11
💰 Finance Debt Management Economic Policy Credit Risk Debt Management Financial risk Credit Markets Macroeconomics
  1. Default is not just about missing a payment; it can also involve lenders accepting losses to help borrowers avoid a formal default. This can include restructuring loans or adjusting payment terms.
  2. Lenders may prefer implicit default over explicit default because it allows them to avoid recognizing their mistakes in assessing credit risk. It makes the situation less transparent and allows them to delay acknowledging losses.
  3. For borrowers, sometimes it might be better to face explicit default and make necessary changes rather than stay in a cycle of implicit default, which can lead to worse problems down the line.

The Debt Crisis

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
💰 Finance Debt crisis Inflation Economic Growth Tax policy
  1. The debt crisis in the West is seen as a necessary and inevitable event that will lead to major global restructuring.
  2. The rise of speculative and Ponzi finance units in the economy increases the likelihood of a financial crisis, as seen in historical examples like the 2008 Great Recession.
  3. To move towards a more stable economic future, a shift towards stakeholder capitalism culture, high taxes on the wealthy, and internal financing mechanisms like QE may be necessary.

Chile Looks Spicy

Pinecone Weekly Brief • 0 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The post discusses Chile's economic situation, indicating it may be enticing for potential investors.
  2. The content includes a free trial offer to subscribe to Pinecone Weekly Brief for full access to the post archives.
  3. The author, Chase Taylor, is behind the Pinecone Weekly Brief publication focusing on macroeconomic research.

The dangers of relative valuation

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 27 Sep 09
💰 Finance Valuation Investing Market Analysis Asset management Valuation Investment Market Analysis Financial risk Equity
  1. Relative valuation can be risky because if one company is valued poorly, it can affect the valuations of other companies that are based on it. This is especially true for big companies like Facebook.
  2. Using relative valuation without careful analysis can lead to mistakes and potentially create market bubbles. Just looking at averages can be misleading.
  3. A better approach to relative valuation is to consider differences between companies and analyze the data thoroughly. This way, it can provide useful insights rather than just being a lazy shortcut.

Bond Ratings: Why, how and what next?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 09
💰 Finance Bond Markets Credit Risk Investment Analysis Regulatory issues Debt Instruments Bond Markets Credit Risk Investment Analysis Market Regulation Financial Institutions
  1. Bond ratings help investors understand the credit risk of borrowing companies. Ratings agencies provide this information because individual investors often lack the knowledge to assess it themselves.
  2. Bond rating changes can affect market prices, but often prices react before the rating changes happen. This shows that while ratings are useful, they can be slow to reflect current risks.
  3. Though there are concerns about conflict of interest because ratings agencies are paid by the companies they rate, it's important to recognize that many factors contribute to bond performance, not just these ratings.

Greece, EU and more on Implicit Backing for Debt

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 22 Dec 09
💰 Finance Sovereign debt EU policy Credit Ratings Economic Impact Market Competition Debt Management Economic Policy Market Competition
  1. Implicit guarantees for debt can be both helpful and risky. Greece's situation shows how these guarantees can support countries but also create big problems.
  2. Being part of the EU has improved Greece's credit standing, but it has also led to a mix of benefits and challenges for stronger EU countries like Germany and France.
  3. While a single currency makes business easier across Europe, it also introduces more regulations that can limit competitiveness against emerging markets like India and China.

Series A activity: Week of November 20, 2023

Magid and Co • 0 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
💰 Finance
  1. The post shares data on Series A deals done in the last week.
  2. The summary stats focus on Series A deals worldwide (excluding China) with raised amounts over $5M, not in therapeutics industry.
  3. Readers can subscribe for free to receive new posts and support the author's work.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular PSM/DIR/CON/INM/018/122

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 06 Dec 22
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Transactions Guidelines
  1. The Central Bank of Nigeria reminds certified payment acceptance devices to accept all transactions from any Nigerian bank's cards.
  2. Acquirers and service providers should remain neutral and not show favoritism towards any specific card brand.
  3. The Circular emphasizes the importance of interoperability and interconnectivity to ensure fair access to electronic payment channels in Nigeria.

Series B Activity: November 2023

Magid and Co • 0 implied HN points • 07 Dec 23
💰 Finance Investing Funding Deals
  1. In November, only 4 out of 48 Series B deals had traditional VCs as lead investors, a low ratio.
  2. Despite Thanksgiving, deal volume increased by 20% compared to October in Series B activity.
  3. Total deal value went up by approximately $100 million from $1.79 billion to $1.88 billion in November.

Quant Letter: December 2025, Week-1

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
💰 Finance Quant Finance Machine Learning Data science Risk management Climate Risk Remote Sensing Research Papers
  1. Open-source satellite imagery can be used to create a global census of residential buildings to better measure climate risk and its impacts on housing and financial stability.
  2. Recent quantitative research is applying remote sensing and data-driven techniques to map built environments and inform climate and risk modeling.
  3. Full articles and curated analyses are often behind a subscription paywall, but short free trials can give temporary access to the full archives.

Alternatives to the CAPM: Part 2: Proxy Models

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 29 Apr 11
💰 Finance Investment Theory Market behavior Statistical Analysis Financial Metrics Investing Risk management Economic Theory Market Analysis Quantitative Analysis
  1. Proxy models move away from traditional finance theories like CAPM, focusing instead on how markets actually price investments. They try to explain returns based on observable factors rather than assumptions about investor behavior.
  2. Research by Fama and French found that factors like market capitalization and price-to-book ratios are better at explaining stock returns than the original CAPM betas. This means smaller companies and those with lower price-to-book ratios tend to have higher returns.
  3. While proxy models can improve expected return calculations, they come with risks like data mining and standard error problems. This means the results may not always be reliable or may misrepresent the true risk involved.

Meta loses $200 billion in value as Zuckerberg focuses earnings call on all the ways company bleeds cash

Dr.John B’s Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 26 Apr 24
💰 Finance Technology Investment Markets Earnings Expenses
  1. Meta loses $200 billion in value due to increased spending and investment forecasts, particularly for boosting artificial intelligence tools.
  2. Despite strong quarterly results, including a significant increase in revenue and profit, the market reacted negatively to Meta's plans of heavy spending on AI.
  3. Mark Zuckerberg emphasizes the long-term potential of AI for Meta, but investors remain skeptical about the company's ability to effectively monetize new AI services and generate revenue.

Navigating Shifting Tides: Portfolio Strategy for an Anticipated Interest Rate Decline in 2024

Modern Value Investing • 0 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Real Estate Biotechnology
  1. The author predicts a significant decrease in interest rates by the Fed in 2024.
  2. The author has made changes to their portfolio, re-entering growth stocks, adding new positions in biotechnology, and exploiting opportunities in payment stocks and US real estate.
  3. The author also diversified their portfolio with deep value stocks, exiting German residential real estate stocks and long term US treasuries.

Alternatives to the CAPM: Part 4: Market-Implied cost of equity

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Apr 11
💰 Finance Equity Investment Valuation Risk Models Investing Valuation Equity Risk management Market Theory
  1. You can calculate the market-implied cost of equity using a simple dividend discount model, which helps you understand if a stock is fairly priced. This method allows you to figure out the expected return on a stock based on its price and future dividends.
  2. Comparing the market-implied cost of equity to a conventional one can help you decide whether to invest in a stock. If the market-implied cost is much higher than your estimate, it might mean the stock is riskier or less attractive.
  3. You can use the market-implied cost of equity for an entire sector so that you have a uniform measure for evaluating companies in that sector. This approach can make it easier to compare different companies without getting lost in individual risks.

Where Are Housing Prices Headed?

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Mortgage Rates Home Prices Affordability
  1. Mortgage rates are at historic highs, hovering between 7-8% and leading to all-time high home prices despite low affordability.
  2. Inventory shortage persists as people with locked-in low mortgage rates hesitate to sell, contributing to the rise in home prices.
  3. Even with rising interest rates and low affordability, US home prices show resilience with 12 consecutive years of gains, indicating a continuing strength in demand.