The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Investing Update: Is The Rally Fading?

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Inflation
  1. The Dow has dropped for seven straight days, which is the longest losing streak since 2020. This downward trend is concerning, especially for December, which is usually a strong month for stocks.
  2. Inflation is still on the rise, moving from 2.60% to 2.75%. Although this is in line with expectations, it indicates that the economy hasn't fully stabilized yet.
  3. Many believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% soon. This move is anticipated as a way to address the ongoing inflation issues and support the market.

November 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economics Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. Inflation has been steadily around 2% since July 2022, excluding housing costs. This shows a consistent trend rather than sudden spikes.
  2. The Federal Reserve has managed to control most types of inflation, but rent prices remain outside of their control. This situation creates a misunderstanding about overall inflation levels.
  3. There's a belief that inflation might change direction suddenly, but the speaker sees no reason for that to happen. The last 29 months have shown stability in most areas.

Investing Update: A Bull Market Scare?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic outlook Stock Analysis Inflation
  1. The stock market can be very unpredictable, like a roller coaster with ups and downs. It's important to be ready for sudden changes in the market.
  2. Recently, there was a big drop in the S&P 500, which showed that many stocks were losing value. It's a reminder that market conditions can shift quickly.
  3. Despite the rough week, there were also signs of recovery, with some stocks doing better. This shows that after tough times, markets can bounce back.
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BOJ Stands Pat; Yen Weakens to ¥158; Inflation Substantially Below 2% Goal

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 27 Apr 24
💰 Finance Inflation Central Bank Interest Rates Currency Exchange Economic outlook
  1. Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced no new tightening measures, leading to yen weakening to ¥158/$
  2. Inflation in Japan has fallen substantially below the 2% goal, with core inflation hitting 1.4% in the past six months
  3. BOJ remains optimistic about reaching stable 2% inflation, emphasizing on a 'virtuous cycle' between wages and prices

Bank of England holds rates, but...

Off to Lunch • 334 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Business News Economy Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at 5.25%, despite a split vote among committee members.
  2. Inflation is still high in the UK at 4%, above the Bank's 2% target, but recent data suggests a slowdown in the economy.
  3. The Bank's monetary policy report hints at inflation potentially dropping to 2% in the near future, but interest rates may not be cut until sustained evidence is seen.

Fed Pivots to More Hikes, More Pain

cryptoeconomy • 648 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economic Policy Monetary Policy Inflation Banking Investing
  1. The Federal Reserve is planning more interest rate hikes and tightening measures, signaling potential economic pain.
  2. Despite initial expectations of a pause in rate hikes due to economic impacts not yet fully realized, Fed Governor Waller is advocating for further hikes to curb inflation.
  3. Quantitative Tightening, the reversal of money printing, may be the next step for the Fed despite past failures, raising concerns of potential economic disruptions and widespread impacts.

Blaming Capitalists and Workers for Inflation

cryptoeconomy • 628 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Inflation Biden administration Labor Market
  1. Central bankers are blaming capitalists and workers for inflation to divert attention from their own actions.
  2. Corporate profits and worker wages are being scapegoated for causing inflation, but in reality, they are a result of economic uncertainty and money printing.
  3. The evolution from 'greedflation' to 'wageflation' is explained by the Cantillon effect, where trillions of dollars trickle down from government to workers, resulting in lost real wages and potential future economic challenges.

Inflation: it's "complicated"

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 628 implied HN points • 25 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Labor Market Market Power
  1. Inflation is influenced by a variety of factors such as supply disruptions, commodity prices, labor market strength, and demand for goods.
  2. The discussion around workers having the upper hand in the labor market is complex and requires consideration of inflation expectations, wage growth, and job market tightness.
  3. Inflation expectations are stable, showing that markets and consumers anticipate a return to normal inflation levels, which is crucial for combating inflation.

2024 Predictions

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Inflation Government spending Market Analysis
  1. The Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting rates by Q2 or Q3 and possibly implement quantitative easing, based on recent signals and market predictions.
  2. There is an anticipation that the Fed will eventually restart quantitative easing due to factors like high deficits and pressure from the Monetary Black Hole, impacting financial markets and assets.
  3. Inflation is expected to return in the near future as liquidity programs kick in, fiscal deficits grow, and government spending increases, potentially leading to economic challenges and a recession.

CPI 3.1%

Points And Figures • 666 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Inflation Investing Policy Economics
  1. Inflation might be higher than reported due to isolated evidence like price increases in certain sectors.
  2. The government's policies are putting strong inflationary pressure on the economy, impacting various sectors and housing market.
  3. Business news sources may have biases and push narratives, so it's important to seek objective insights for informed decisions.

Thoughts on Inflation

America in Crisis • 139 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Government Policy Economic History
  1. The reduced-price model shows how cycles in prices correspond to inflation, especially during wartime when inflation tends to be higher due to deficit spending.
  2. The quantity theory of money explains the relationship between economic activity, money supply, and inflation, showcasing the importance of monetary factors in historical economic events.
  3. Analyzing the current inflation outlook using the money balance model highlights the potential for continued inflationary pressures and the challenges the Federal Reserve faces in managing inflation through interest rate adjustments.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Monetary Policy Economic Trends
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

Europe pays more for banned Russian oil, resold by India - as EU wages fall

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 05 May 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Sanctions Energy Inflation Wages
  1. Europe is indirectly purchasing Russian oil through India at higher prices despite sanctions, contributing to de-dollarization and falling wages.
  2. Russian oil exports to Asia, particularly China and India, have increased significantly due to Western sanctions, shifting away from Europe.
  3. Real wages in the EU have fallen by 6.5% from 2020 to 2022 due to rising energy costs and a severe cost-of-living crisis, impacting poorer households the most.

Corporate profits were biggest driver of inflation in Europe, IMF admits

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation Corporate Profits Central Banks Monetary Policy
  1. Corporate profits have been a major driver of inflation in Europe since 2021, with companies increasing prices more than the rising costs of imported energy.
  2. The IMF suggests that companies may need to reduce profit margins to help keep inflation in line with targets set by the European Central Bank.
  3. The study challenges the traditional view that inflation is solely caused by demand-pull factors, highlighting how excessive profit increases by corporations can also drive inflation.

Inflation is Bad, Actually

Economic Forces • 7 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation Macroeconomics Price theory Taxation Economic Policy
  1. Some people think inflation is good because it helps prevent deflation, but this argument is weak. Deflation can be harmful mainly when caused by poor policies, not just by falling prices.
  2. Inflation is often compared to a hidden tax because it decreases the value of money. Unlike regular taxes, people might not realize their purchasing power is being reduced until they feel the effects.
  3. Overall, inflation can create confusion and make economic decisions harder. It undermines the value of money as a reference point, leading to more mistakes and inefficiencies in both personal and business finances.

What If We Run Inflation Hot: Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Inflation Macroeconomics Market Trends
  1. Inflation may rise faster than expected, which could surprise many investors. People are not prepared for high growth in the economy right now.
  2. The recent economic changes have benefited many workers and industries that were struggling for a long time. This includes wage increases in sectors that needed them.
  3. Questions are being raised about whether efforts to control inflation are really aimed at the overall economy or at a specific group of people in the rural areas.

Why Did The BOJ Move Despite Conflicting Evidence on Wages and Prices?

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economy Banking Inflation Monetary Policy Wages
  1. The Bank of Japan's decision to make monetary policy changes despite unclear wage and price trends was questioned.
  2. There was no immediate financial market pressure on the BOJ to act, as rates were stable and not pushing past set levels.
  3. Conflicting data on wage trends created uncertainty, with various databases showing contradictory evidence, making predictions difficult.

The Bank of England's Jonathan Haskel on Inflation, Productivity, Brexit, and More

The Overshoot • 511 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation Productivity Brexit Monetary Policy Economic Impact
  1. The Bank of England is grappling with the challenges of high inflation, low GDP, and rising unemployment due to tight labor and energy markets.
  2. There is significant uncertainty in economic forecasts, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy decisions.
  3. Brexit has had a major impact on the UK's productivity growth and economic performance, with factors like weak business investment and health-related inactivity contributing to the situation.

Did Wages Really Rise The Fastest In 28 Years?

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 09 Jul 23
💰 Finance Wages Inflation Economic Theory Consumer spending
  1. Wages per hour, not per month, need to be examined to truly understand wage growth
  2. The data showing nominal wages growth doesn't necessarily reflect a true increase in pay, as it may be influenced by other factors like scheduled hours of work
  3. The focus on nominal wages by the Bank of Japan is aimed at achieving a specific inflation target, which may not fully account for the real impact on consumers

Yen’s Short-Term Fluctuations and Long-Term Weakness

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Currency Economy Inflation Interest Rates Trade
  1. Short-term fluctuations of the yen depend on interest rate gaps between Japan and the US, influencing investors to buy/sell yen.
  2. Long-term weakness of the yen is influenced by the competitiveness of Japanese exports, affecting the overall value of the yen.
  3. The purchasing power of the yen relative to its trading partners has decreased significantly over the past 50 years, impacting Japanese households and companies.

A política monetária nos EUA se encontra em território restritivo?

O Observador de Corcyra • 412 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic Analysis Macroeconomics
  1. The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
  2. There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
  3. Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.

Americans' Incomes Are Rising Too Fast for 2% Inflation

The Overshoot • 393 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economics Inflation Income Savings Employment
  1. Americans' incomes have been rising rapidly, with a 10% increase in disposable income since last summer.
  2. This rise in income is leading to concerns about potential inflation, as increased spending may outpace production.
  3. The surge in employment income is a key factor in driving consumer spending and could impact inflation rates.

How Much Change When BOJ Eventually Tweaks? Part 1

Japan Economy Watch • 139 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economic conditions Interest Rates Central Banking Inflation
  1. Interest rate changes depend on both BOJ policy and financial market conditions, and a policy tweak is likely to result in a gradual, minor impact on rates.
  2. BOJ's intention appears to be maintaining accommodative financial conditions by making small adjustments to policies like the overnight rate and yield curve control.
  3. BOJ's decision-making process is influenced by the balance of risks in moving too early or too late, with a focus on clear evidence of sustained wage growth before significant policy changes.

The Beveridge curve and cultural evolution

America in Crisis • 99 implied HN points • 16 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor Market Inflation Taxation Government spending
  1. Beveridge curves show the relationship between job vacancies and unemployment rates, highlighting changes in the labor market over time.
  2. Economic policies, such as tax laws and deficit spending, can impact factors like wages and inflation, influencing the overall economic environment.
  3. Cultural evolution in business practices is influenced by economic conditions and government policies, shaping the economy and labor market dynamics.

¥144 Is Weakest Since Last November

Japan Economy Watch • 359 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Inflation Currency
  1. The weakening of the yen is closely tied to the gap between Japanese and American 10-year government bond rates, with a 97% correlation.
  2. Investors are learning to trust the statements of central banks like the BOJ and US Fed more, impacting market behavior and currency values.
  3. The chronic weakness of the yen reflects Japan's loss of competitiveness, leading to a trade deficit, higher consumer prices, and lower real wages.