The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

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The Potemkin Economy

The Dollar Endgame • 6 HN points • 23 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Employment Manipulation Unemployment Inflation
  1. Economic data may not reflect the true situation: Reports of a strong economy may be misleading, with statistics like job numbers potentially manipulated to present a facade of growth.
  2. There are concerns about the accuracy of government statistics: Issues like overestimating job growth and manipulating unemployment rates raise questions about the reliability of official data.
  3. The changing nature of employment is worrisome: The shift towards part-time work, decline in full-time jobs, and decreasing workforce participation rates indicate underlying problems in the job market.

Corporate profits were biggest driver of inflation in Europe, IMF admits

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation Central Banks Monetary Policy
  1. Corporate profits have been a major driver of inflation in Europe since 2021, with companies increasing prices more than the rising costs of imported energy.
  2. The IMF suggests that companies may need to reduce profit margins to help keep inflation in line with targets set by the European Central Bank.
  3. The study challenges the traditional view that inflation is solely caused by demand-pull factors, highlighting how excessive profit increases by corporations can also drive inflation.

Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

Ecoinometrics • 275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Inflation Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.
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Inflation: it's "complicated"

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 628 implied HN points • 25 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Labor Market Market Power
  1. Inflation is influenced by a variety of factors such as supply disruptions, commodity prices, labor market strength, and demand for goods.
  2. The discussion around workers having the upper hand in the labor market is complex and requires consideration of inflation expectations, wage growth, and job market tightness.
  3. Inflation expectations are stable, showing that markets and consumers anticipate a return to normal inflation levels, which is crucial for combating inflation.

Recession Tug-of-War: Downside versus Bright Side

Risk Musings • 401 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economy Real Estate Inflation Insurance Climate change
  1. The US economy faces challenges like high interest rates, commercial real estate vacancies, inflation, and climate change.
  2. Despite challenges, positive factors like AI, consumer demand, residential real estate, and labor strength are helping the economy remain resilient.
  3. The tug-of-war between downside risks and bright side factors will determine the economic outcome in the short, medium, and long terms.

Europe pays more for banned Russian oil, resold by India - as EU wages fall

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 05 May 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Sanctions Energy Inflation Wages
  1. Europe is indirectly purchasing Russian oil through India at higher prices despite sanctions, contributing to de-dollarization and falling wages.
  2. Russian oil exports to Asia, particularly China and India, have increased significantly due to Western sanctions, shifting away from Europe.
  3. Real wages in the EU have fallen by 6.5% from 2020 to 2022 due to rising energy costs and a severe cost-of-living crisis, impacting poorer households the most.

NUMERI ASTRONOMICI

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 216 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics Debt Inflation Government
  1. Debt levels in America are rapidly increasing, with the first trillion taking 185 years and next trillion completed in just 6 months.
  2. Inflation can silently grow over time, culminating in a sudden and severe loss when it's too late, as seen in the case of Zimbabwe.
  3. The USA is dealing with unbelievably large numbers, including trillions and quadrillions, due to factors like derivatives.

The Bank of England's Jonathan Haskel on Inflation, Productivity, Brexit, and More

The Overshoot • 511 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation Productivity Brexit Monetary Policy Economic Impact
  1. The Bank of England is grappling with the challenges of high inflation, low GDP, and rising unemployment due to tight labor and energy markets.
  2. There is significant uncertainty in economic forecasts, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy decisions.
  3. Brexit has had a major impact on the UK's productivity growth and economic performance, with factors like weak business investment and health-related inactivity contributing to the situation.

Wall Street is waking up to the inflation problem, but is it enough to turn the trend around

Ecoinometrics • 58 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation Market conditions Federal Reserve
  1. Inflation, especially from the services sector, is not returning to pre-COVID levels.
  2. Financial markets are adjusting their expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
  3. Loose financial conditions may benefit Bitcoin and risk assets, but watch for potential reversals signaling a recession or inflation issues.

A política monetária nos EUA se encontra em território restritivo?

O Observador de Corcyra • 412 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic Analysis Macroeconomics
  1. The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
  2. There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
  3. Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.

Americans' Incomes Are Rising Too Fast for 2% Inflation

The Overshoot • 393 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economics Inflation Income Savings Employment
  1. Americans' incomes have been rising rapidly, with a 10% increase in disposable income since last summer.
  2. This rise in income is leading to concerns about potential inflation, as increased spending may outpace production.
  3. The surge in employment income is a key factor in driving consumer spending and could impact inflation rates.

The Transcript Q4 2022 Letter

The Transcript • 393 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Market Analysis
  1. The economy is showing strong consumer spending and high inflation, causing uncertainty in monetary policy decisions.
  2. Financial stress alongside economic strength is creating a challenge for the Fed as they monitor inflation and labor market data.
  3. The S&P 500 index earnings are down and the market is at high valuations in comparison to historic norms, presenting a need for price adjustments for balance.

Why the market has really rallied following the Fed decision?

Global Markets Investor • 79 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Markets Federal Reserve Interest Rates Inflation
  1. The market rallied significantly after the Federal Reserve made unexpected decisions, like not pushing back against expected interest rate cuts and adjusting interest rate forecasts significantly.
  2. Investors were surprised by the Fed's dovish shift towards easing and the embrace of soft landing strategies, which resulted in market excitement and continued rallies in stocks and bonds.
  3. While the market is currently optimistic due to the Fed's stance, there are warnings about potential overbought conditions and the need to watch out for sharp corrections.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Affordability Indexes Housing
  1. Real house prices in the US are currently 2.4% below the recent peak, indicating a slight decline in prices adjusted for inflation.
  2. It's important to consider the price-to-rent ratio to understand the affordability of housing markets.
  3. National house prices are historically high after being 10.2% above the bubble peak level, despite the market's ups and downs over 17 years.

There Are Three Ways to Get Rid of Inflation. One Is "Impossible" and One Will Destroy the Country.

Surviving Tomorrow • 314 implied HN points • 18 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Taxation Wealth Distribution Monetary Policy Economic Theory
  1. Inflation impacts different groups differently: savers punished, poor robbed, debtors rewarded.
  2. Eradicating inflation can be done by destroying the working class, taxing the rich, or creating anti-inflation money.
  3. Anti-inflation money involves investing in new assets, taxing back excessive money, and destroying it for common well-being.

Did the debt ceiling deal really save the US from bankruptcy?

Geopolitical Economy Report • 259 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Banking Economy Reserves
  1. The US's debt situation is a small part of the global debt puzzle, with rising interest rates creating challenges not only for the US but also for poorer countries dependent on dollar debt.
  2. The debt deal exacerbates the unproductive nature of debt as it has been used to replace income for individuals and constrain companies from expansion and investment in productive capacity.
  3. The financial system will face challenges including declining value of US treasuries impacting banking system resilience, inflation persisting, and US dollar losing hegemony due to rising debt and market liquidity issues.

What causes inflation? Economists Radhika Desai & Michael Hudson explain

Geopolitical Economy Report • 378 implied HN points • 27 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation Federal Reserve Monetary Policy De-dollarization
  1. Inflation is driven by a shift to financialized capitalism, where assets are inflated while wages and consumer spending are squeezed.
  2. Central banks like the Federal Reserve prioritize the interests of the financial sector over addressing inflation or promoting productive growth.
  3. The current inflationary environment is rooted in financial bubbles, debt creation, and the failure to address the structural imbalances in the economy.

The Catalyst That Could 'Standardize' Bitcoin

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Financial Crisis Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. Bitcoin adoption could be accelerated through a major financial crisis where people seek an exit ramp from the traditional financial system.
  2. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin allows for success to be tied to its growth, empowering individuals who are tired of traditional financial institutions.
  3. Bitcoin offers a chance for the public to break the cycle of bearing the cost of financial failures by opting out of the current system and embracing digital freedom.

Lawler: Update on American Homes for Rent (AMH)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Inflation Earnings
  1. American Homes for Rent (AMH) saw a decline in occupancy rate last quarter, contrasting with Invitation Homes.
  2. The average monthly rents of INVH and AMH seem to lead the CPI's Rent of Primary Residence by about two quarters, and rent growth has remained above the overall inflation rate.
  3. Rental inflation remains elevated for many single-family renters despite certain limitations in the rent trend comparisons and geographic focuses of these companies.

No bubble, no trouble...

Japan Optimist • 235 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Policy Inflation Central Bank
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is focused on ensuring economic growth and controlling inflation.
  2. In Japan, politicians are addressing rising energy costs and affordability concerns, not the central bank.
  3. Japanese elite closely monitor real estate prices to prevent asset bubbles and ensure future generations' prospects.