The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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The Rich Get Richer and the Deplorables Pay for the Bailout

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 2299 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Policy Government Inflation Bailout
  1. Rich hedge fund managers and venture capitalists are profiting while the Deplorables in MAGA Land suffer economically.
  2. Biden's regime is bailing out the US banking sector, burdening the Deplorables with trillions in debt and fueling inflation.
  3. Biden's policies, such as canceling pipelines and excessive government spending, are contributing to cost-push and demand-pull inflation, creating stagflationary forces.

The War on the Middle Class

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 158 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The middle class is facing challenges like wage stagnation and inflation, impacting their standard of living.
  2. Everyday costs like groceries are significantly increasing, impacting individuals' budgets.
  3. Luxury experiences such as stays at high-end hotels are becoming more expensive and less accessible, signaling a broader trend of economic strain on the middle class.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: What Is the Fed Thinking?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 161 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.
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The McDonald's theory of why everyone thinks the economy sucks

Silver Bulletin • 438 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy Consumer spending Inflation Marketing Delivery Services
  1. Americans are spending more money overall, not just paying higher prices due to inflation.
  2. Fast food chains are using strategies like price increases, marketing, and delivery to make customers spend more.
  3. Consumer spending is increasing faster than inflation, impacting people's perceptions about the economy.

The Potemkin Economy

The Dollar Endgame • 6 HN points • 23 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Employment Manipulation Unemployment Inflation
  1. Economic data may not reflect the true situation: Reports of a strong economy may be misleading, with statistics like job numbers potentially manipulated to present a facade of growth.
  2. There are concerns about the accuracy of government statistics: Issues like overestimating job growth and manipulating unemployment rates raise questions about the reliability of official data.
  3. The changing nature of employment is worrisome: The shift towards part-time work, decline in full-time jobs, and decreasing workforce participation rates indicate underlying problems in the job market.

Could the USD Hyperinflate?

The Informationist • 1592 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Markets Currency Investments Assets
  1. Hyperinflation is when a currency loses value rapidly due to extreme inflation.
  2. Some currencies have hyperinflated in the past, like those of Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Hungary.
  3. While there is a chance the USD could hyperinflate, it is likely one of the last currencies to do so and owning hard assets can help protect against hyperinflation.

Accidentally testing NGDP level targeting

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Fiscal policy
  1. Accidentally testing market monetarism, particularly nominal GDP targeting, yielded successful results during economic shocks.
  2. Nominal GDP targeting can help stabilize the business cycle by allowing for counter-cyclical inflation and smoothing disruptions in nominal incomes.
  3. Adopting nominal GDP level targeting could lead to improved productivity and reduced reliance on interest rates in monetary policy discussions.

March 2024 Fed Meeting Preview

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economic Growth Inflation Housing Market
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.

Heat Check

The Last Bear Standing • 81 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Inflation Market Analysis Economy
  1. The market has been experiencing significant growth, especially in sectors like Artificial Intelligence and biotech, leading to exponential value increases in certain stocks.
  2. Despite positive economic indicators and accommodative policies, there are some cautionary signals like delays in rate cuts and unexpected inflation data that may impact the stock market.
  3. Investors should remain aware and prepared for the potential scenarios of inflation re-acceleration and its impact on the market.

Are TIPS and I-Bonds Good Investments?

The Informationist • 963 implied HN points • 28 May 23
💰 Finance Investments Bonds Inflation Government Assets
  1. TIPS are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities that protect investors from inflation by adjusting principal based on changes in CPI.
  2. I-Bonds are similar to TIPS in protecting from inflation, but have fixed rates and are not tradable in the secondary market.
  3. Both TIPS and I-Bonds are highly dependent on CPI for pricing and may not offer positive real rates of return in the real world.

Blaming Capitalists and Workers for Inflation

cryptoeconomy • 628 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Inflation Biden administration Labor Market
  1. Central bankers are blaming capitalists and workers for inflation to divert attention from their own actions.
  2. Corporate profits and worker wages are being scapegoated for causing inflation, but in reality, they are a result of economic uncertainty and money printing.
  3. The evolution from 'greedflation' to 'wageflation' is explained by the Cantillon effect, where trillions of dollars trickle down from government to workers, resulting in lost real wages and potential future economic challenges.

3 Ways out of our "Fiscal Death Spiral."

cryptoeconomy • 707 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Taxation Government spending Economy
  1. There are 3 ways to escape the fiscal crisis: reduce spending, raise taxes heavily, or resort to printing more money.
  2. The increasing debt and interest payments are approaching unsustainable levels, potentially leading to historic inflation rates.
  3. Regardless of the chosen path, the final destination seems to be inflation as the most likely outcome of the fiscal crisis.

January 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Supply and Demand Inflation
  1. Rising rents are causing rising home prices in the US housing market, with a greater than 1:1 pace.
  2. Density of housing is crucial in impacting housing prices, especially in cities like New York City, where dense neighborhoods are affected by supply shortages and migration trends.
  3. The impact of COVID-19 on housing trends varies across cities, with some areas experiencing temporary relief in housing costs for dense neighborhoods while other cities like New York face complexities in supply conditions.

Dialing Back Restraint

The Transcript • 78 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy Policy Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates may have reached their highest point in this tightening cycle and could start decreasing later this year.
  2. The Fed is cautious about lowering rates too soon and wants to see sustained progress in managing inflation before making any major moves.
  3. Despite some challenges with inflation, the overall economy, especially the job market, remains strong.

January 2024 CPI Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Inflation Federal Reserve
  1. Reaction to monthly CPI updates often fails to consider the lag affecting the shelter component, leading to surprises in news interpretation.
  2. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut were influenced by the latest report, shifting them further in the future.
  3. Monetary measures like currency in circulation and M2 trended down post-Covid scare, while the Fed's balance sheet shrinks without obvious disruption.

The Outlook in Pictures

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 78 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Central Banks Inflation Technology Companies Geopolitical
  1. Central banks are easing or planning to ease monetary policies, influenced by various economic factors worldwide.
  2. The rise of technology, particularly AI, is expected to boost productivity and impact asset markets, potentially leading to financial risks in the future.
  3. Inflation is under control due to labor-saving technology, weak growth in certain regions, and the US's ability to adjust energy production based on market conditions.

Fed Pivots to More Hikes, More Pain

cryptoeconomy • 648 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economic Policy Monetary Policy Inflation Banking Investing
  1. The Federal Reserve is planning more interest rate hikes and tightening measures, signaling potential economic pain.
  2. Despite initial expectations of a pause in rate hikes due to economic impacts not yet fully realized, Fed Governor Waller is advocating for further hikes to curb inflation.
  3. Quantitative Tightening, the reversal of money printing, may be the next step for the Fed despite past failures, raising concerns of potential economic disruptions and widespread impacts.

CK Hutchison update (1 HK)

Asian Century Stocks • 353 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Earnings Inflation
  1. CK Hutchison is facing inflation pressures due to weak Euro, high inflation, and high-interest rates.
  2. The company is transitioning towards becoming more asset-light through selling assets and share buybacks to increase return on equity.
  3. Potential factors affecting CK Hutchison's future performance include interest payment repricing, margin rebounds, and growth in the retail segment.