The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The U.S. Economy Refuses to Slow Down

The Overshoot • 1513 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong growth, with hiring and sales still on the rise.
  2. Inflation is a concern as it seems to be faster than 2%.
  3. Despite a slight slowdown in some areas, overall macro conditions in the U.S. are positive with strong jobs, incomes, and spending.

Did immigration bring down inflation?

Noahpinion • 9647 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Paul Krugman suggests that increased immigration led to a positive supply shock, boosting growth and lowering inflation.
  2. Immigration's impact on reducing costs for companies and expanding aggregate supply is complex, involving immigrant and native-born wage dynamics.
  3. There are differing perspectives on the role of immigration in reducing inflation, with suggestions including a combination of immigration, Fed action, and pandemic-era supply shocks.

The Rich Get Richer and the Deplorables Pay for the Bailout

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 2299 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Rich hedge fund managers and venture capitalists are profiting while the Deplorables in MAGA Land suffer economically.
  2. Biden's regime is bailing out the US banking sector, burdening the Deplorables with trillions in debt and fueling inflation.
  3. Biden's policies, such as canceling pipelines and excessive government spending, are contributing to cost-push and demand-pull inflation, creating stagflationary forces.

Lights on the runway for the soft landing

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 1356 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The labor market is strong, American consumers are spending well, and most families are financially better off.
  2. Inflation is heading towards 2%, with businesses adjusting prices and the Fed needing to act accordingly.
  3. Forecasts suggest a recession may be avoided, softening the pessimistic rhetoric and improving consumer sentiment.
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Three reasons the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates soon

Noahpinion • 8647 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong signs of a soft landing with low unemployment, surging job numbers, high employment rates, and accelerating wages.
  2. Inflation has fallen back to the 2% target, providing a remarkable macroeconomic achievement.
  3. Despite the strong economy, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon due to reasons like accelerating productivity growth.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 71 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. U.S. house prices rose modestly year-over-year — the Case-Shiller national index was up about 1.4% and the FHFA index about 1.9% — but inflation outpaced those gains so real home values fell.
  2. There is a sharp regional split: Midwestern and Northeastern markets led gains (Chicago +5.7%, New York +5.0%), while several Sun Belt cities showed year-over-year declines (Tampa −3.9%, Phoenix −1.4%, Dallas −1.4%, Miami −1.0%).
  3. Monthly data show small positive momentum after earlier declines — Case-Shiller rose about 0.4% month-to-month (seasonally adjusted) and FHFA rose about 0.6% — yet overall price momentum remains muted and many metros saw monthly drops before seasonal adjustment.

More Lies About Trade Tariffs From the Chaos Monkeys

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Supporters of chaotic tariff policies are making internally contradictory claims—saying tariffs don’t raise prices while also arguing that removing them will lower prices—and they push for immediate Fed rate cuts despite inflation risks.
  2. Tariffs act like taxes that raise prices and reduce output and jobs, and models that assume steady tariffs understate the real damage because unpredictable, rolling tariffs and the resulting uncertainty amplify economic harm.
  3. The political tactic is not coherent argument but domination: rapid misinformation, media capture, and enforced doublethink are used to flummox opponents and shape public opinion rather than engage on facts.

The Houthis, A Disappointing Wage Report, and the Tumbling Yen

Japan Economy Watch • 1098 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The yen has weakened due to external factors like the Houthi attack, impacting Japanese economy and inflation, and market anticipation of interest rate changes. The disappointing wage report for November dampened expectations for a rise in interest rates by the Bank of Japan, leading to a weaker yen.
  2. An accurate model for predicting the yen's strength has a standard error of about 3.4 yen. A sizeable discrepancy between the model's forecast and the actual yen value could either indicate a correction back to expected levels or suggest a long-term trend change.
  3. The growth in nominal wages in Japan has consistently fallen short of the 3% goal needed for sustained inflation. This has influenced market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions and consequently impacted the yen's valuation.

What Causes Stagflation?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Increasing the money supply creates an “exchange of nothing for something” that shifts resources away from producers, which raises prices while weakening real economic growth — this combination is stagflation.
  2. Unexpected boosts in money growth can temporarily cut unemployment and raise output, but once people expect higher inflation they change their behavior and the growth gains vanish, leaving only higher inflation.
  3. The severity and visibility of stagflation depends on private savings: falling savings make weaker growth and higher unemployment clear, while rising savings can mask weak growth even as prices climb.

Media Notes

The Lens • 982 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Stephanie Kelton discusses alternative ways to handle inflationary pressures globally
  2. Central banks turning to rate hikes may not be the most effective solution for managing inflation
  3. Raising interest rates can have unintended consequences and may not always lead to desired outcomes

Sacred Cows

The Lens • 904 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Economists, market participants, pundits, and policymakers got some big things wrong in recent years, like the transitory nature of inflation.
  2. The public perception of elites may be that they often know nothing, even elites admit to being wrong on significant matters.
  3. There was a discussion on the impact of rate hikes on inflation, challenging the traditional narrative and the idea that monetary policy has no effect.

Trump Promised Voters Lower Prices: He Lied—& People Are Angry

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 184 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Affordability is mostly people’s anger at high nominal prices after a one‑time inflation jump, with tariffs and housing costs making the pain worse; political debate should call out broken promises to cut prices and focus on raising incomes and reducing monopoly-driven rents instead of promising magic price drops.
  2. The labor market looks frozen at the margin — hiring is paused even though unemployment is low — because tariff uncertainty and AI-driven investment make firms reluctant to hire; policy should reduce trade uncertainty and incentivize hiring, apprenticeships, and retraining.
  3. The current AI boom is propping up demand and investment but is uneven, uncertain, and may be misallocated; smaller, cheaper models and more deployment-focused investment across many firms could deliver broader benefits than a hyperscaler datacenter arms race.

The Fed is only looking to past inflation, and that's a problem.

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 805 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed is focusing only on past inflation, and this approach may lead to problems with monetary policy decisions.
  2. Recent data shows a rapid decrease in inflation over the past six months, suggesting a return towards the 2% target.
  3. Despite strong economic growth and high interest rates, the Fed continues to rely heavily on backward-looking inflation data for its decision-making.

Market Misreads Services Inflation And the BOJ

Japan Economy Watch • 1018 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Market players and forecasters may be misreading the intentions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) about inflation and wage data.
  2. The BOJ's ambiguous messages and contradictory statements are causing confusion in the market.
  3. Evaluating services inflation and wage hikes requires careful consideration of data and not jumping to conclusions.

Let's Look At Data

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed is politically influenced, as seen in their recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged, despite some members wanting to lower them.
  2. Recent PCE data indicates inflation is rising, which might justify keeping rates steady even in light of other pressures for cuts.
  3. Changes in tariffs are likened to taxes that can slow down the economy, and the current money supply suggests potential recession signs, complicating the decision on whether to ease rates.

Just So We're Clear on the 2024 Election....

Drezner’s World • 963 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. The author has issues with both Biden and Trump, but views Trump's economic policies as far worse.
  2. The author emphasizes the difference between the economic policies of Biden and Trump, particularly in relation to inflation.
  3. The author highlights the authoritarian tendencies and disastrous economic policies of Donald Trump, leading to a preference for Biden in the 2024 election.

Could the USD Hyperinflate?

The Informationist • 1592 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Hyperinflation is when a currency loses value rapidly due to extreme inflation.
  2. Some currencies have hyperinflated in the past, like those of Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Hungary.
  3. While there is a chance the USD could hyperinflate, it is likely one of the last currencies to do so and owning hard assets can help protect against hyperinflation.

Valuations Don’t Matter When Money Is Fake

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 61 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Central bank money printing and nonstop liquidity have decoupled prices from fundamentals, so extreme valuation multiples can persist because liquidity, not earnings, drives markets.
  2. That liquidity is uneven, concentrating in a handful of mega-cap firms that prop up indexes while most stocks and the real economy lag behind.
  3. Given these distortions, protecting wealth matters more than timing the market — diversify into sound money, real assets, and non-dollar exposure instead of relying on historical valuation limits.

Scary economists and bad news

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 1375 implied HN points • 16 Apr 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The news about the economy is often grim but does not always reflect the actual economic conditions.
  2. People tend to focus more on bad news about the labor market, even when the conditions are objectively good.
  3. Negative news about the economy can have a significant impact on consumer behavior and economic recovery.

Delayed Pain

Points And Figures • 692 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Tariffs might not be causing the inflation that some experts predicted. In fact, they can act like a tax, which might actually lower prices instead of raising them.
  2. The economy reacts slowly to changes like interest rate adjustments or tariffs. People and businesses need time to adapt and this can affect their sales and planning.
  3. Watching how middle-class consumers spend their money can give clues about the economy's health. If they're cutting back on luxury items, it could signal trouble ahead.

$10 Trillion Stolen Right Under Our Noses

COVID Reason • 1784 implied HN points • 28 Aug 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Over $10 trillion was spent on the COVID-19 pandemic, with $6 trillion from CARES Act and $4 trillion from Biden's administration.
  2. Money was stolen through fraud and embezzlement during COVID relief, with the effects leading to inflation and societal wealth disparity.
  3. The spending spree due to the pandemic led to significant financial losses, missed opportunities, and wealth redistribution, impacting many aspects of people's lives.

Ray Dalio: Great Disorder in Next 18 Months

cryptoeconomy • 1159 implied HN points • 01 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Ray Dalio warns of great disorder in the next 18 months due to economic concerns
  2. Dalio is particularly worried about soaring debt, inflation, wealth gaps, and potential for world war
  3. The role of government, including central banks and their impact on debt, inflation, and inequality, is seen as a key driver of potential crisis

Macroeconomy Now Below "Stall Speed"?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 484 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Job creation in the U.S. is slowing down, with only about 35,000 new jobs added each month lately. This is not enough to keep unemployment from rising.
  2. Inflation risks are still increasing, mainly due to trade issues and supply chain problems. These factors could lead to economic issues like stagflation, where both inflation and unemployment rise.
  3. There's a major boom in data-center construction, driven by AI investments. This is impacting prices and inflation, showing that certain sectors can create upward pressure on costs even when overall consumer demand isn't high.

PCE and the *Supercore* Inflation Reading

The Informationist • 1120 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. PCE is a monthly inflation measure that tracks consumer spending on goods and services.
  2. PCE methodology differs from CPI in coverage, methodology, and population coverage.
  3. Supercore PCE Deflator, preferred by the Fed, removes food, energy, gas, electricity, and housing from core inflation readings.

QE is Coming

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Markets are anticipating increased liquidity injections from the Fed, with assets like Gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs even before the easing cycle starts.
  2. The surge in Bitcoin's value is attributed to significant inflows from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a historic rally compared to gold ETFs.
  3. The financial markets are preparing for a potential Fed intervention, likely in response to the rising net liquidity despite the seeming balance sheet reductions.

Are TIPS and I-Bonds Good Investments?

The Informationist • 963 implied HN points • 28 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. TIPS are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities that protect investors from inflation by adjusting principal based on changes in CPI.
  2. I-Bonds are similar to TIPS in protecting from inflation, but have fixed rates and are not tradable in the secondary market.
  3. Both TIPS and I-Bonds are highly dependent on CPI for pricing and may not offer positive real rates of return in the real world.

Losing Friends, Hobbling Manufacturing Businesses & Workers, & Sabotaging Growth with One Inept Chaos-Monkey Tariff Trick

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 438 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Trump's tariffs have hurt U.S. manufacturing workers by making their products less competitive compared to foreign goods. This has led to frustration among both workers and company managers.
  2. The uncertainty caused by Trump's chaotic trade policies has made it hard for businesses to plan and has created a hostile environment for international trade. This unpredictability can lead to increased costs for consumers.
  3. Many experts believe that Trump's trade deals not only fail to reduce the trade deficit but also risk slowing U.S. economic growth. The long-term effects may include lower wages and a weaker economy for American households.

Central Bankers Blaming the Victims

cryptoeconomy • 884 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Central bankers are blaming people for inflation to divert attention from their own actions
  2. The 'Greedflation' narrative sets the masses against each other while the elite benefits
  3. Inflation is being driven by government greed and printing of trillions, impacting the public negatively

December 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The housing market is in a long, slow recovery: construction, rents, and prices are gradually rising and a housing shortage makes a conventional recession hard to trigger.
  2. Measured inflation is roughly at the 2% target once shelter is excluded, but recent CPI gains are mainly driven by rent/shelter and a bit of tariff-driven noise.
  3. Policy and shocks matter: tariffs and looser Fed policy could lift inflation again, but without a major shock or chaotic policy change the slow recovery should keep chugging along as new homebuilding slowly raises capacity.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National and Composite 20 indexes hit new all-time highs in November, just above the prior peak from early 2025.
  2. Adjusted for inflation, national house prices are about 2.4% below their recent peak (and roughly 10.1% above the older bubble peak), while the Composite 20 is about 2.6% below its 2022 peak.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is down about 9.6% from its 2022 high, and rising inventory plus persistent inflation pushed real house prices roughly 1.5% lower through November 2025.

The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?

The Overshoot • 452 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The U.S. Economy is showing strong growth and may not need rate cuts despite controlled inflation.
  2. Traders anticipate interest rates to decrease, but data suggests a period of faster growth akin to past economic booms.
  3. Initial forecasts of a U.S. recession were proven wrong, with the economy growing over 3% and showing resilience against negative predictions.

What's Art Got to Do with It?

System Change • 491 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The art market is experiencing deflation as buyers prioritize debt repayment over new purchases.
  2. Debt deflation and low wages worldwide are driving the fall in prices of goods, services, and assets.
  3. China's economy, as the world's second largest, plays a significant role in global deflationary pressures and may require a drastic shift in economic policy to avoid a crash.

Inflation suddenly reignites

The Bitcoin Layer • 393 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation is reigniting as prices paid by businesses surge, leading to a spike in Treasury yields.
  2. Loan activity is increasing at banks, indicating economic activity is picking up.
  3. Upstream prices that businesses are paying will likely lead to higher consumer prices with a slight delay.

The BoJ is Trapped

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Bank of Japan raised its rates for the first time in years, adjusting its primary goal for short-term interest rates and marking its first rate hike since 2007.
  2. The Bank of Japan previously used Negative Interest Rate Policy to stimulate borrowing and lending to revitalize Japan's sluggish economy.
  3. The Bank of Japan has ceased certain policies but will continue to print money, maintain low rates, and combat potential inflation, as seen through their recent monetary announcements.

Why Can’t I Have My Own Money Printer?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. If an individual could print money, they'd likely stop producing and live off others because printing is easier than earning, which creates money without creating goods or services.
  2. If everyone printed money, production would collapse and the economy would be flooded with worthless bills, since there would be lots of money but few goods to buy.
  3. The government can also create money and temporarily boost demand, but that too can't substitute for real production, raising a hard question about why private money printing is illegal while institutional money creation is allowed.