The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 9, 2025

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Earnings Reports Global events
  1. This week has important earnings reports from many tech companies like Monday.com and Zillow. Keep an eye on how they perform as it might affect the market.
  2. There are several key economic events in the U.S. this week, such as consumer inflation reports and retail sales. These can give us clues about the economy's health.
  3. Global economic updates are happening too, with events like unemployment rates and industrial production in countries like China, Turkey, and Germany. These will help us understand the international economy.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Housing Prices Investment Analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 4.0% in December compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising again after a period of decline.
  2. Most of the cities with the biggest price drops are in Florida, with Austin being the worst performer overall. This indicates that some areas are struggling much more than others.
  3. As more homes become available for sale in 2025, the growth in house prices might slow down. So even though prices are rising now, that might change in the near future.

Q3 2024: Clock Starts Anew

Interconnected • 46 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Policy Investment Strategies
  1. The new fund started on October 1, focusing on technology related to cloud computing and AI. This means the fresh investments will reflect the latest strategies and insights.
  2. Big tech companies like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud are showing strong growth, indicating a possible recovery in the cloud market. This is an exciting time for investing in these sectors.
  3. With the upcoming U.S. elections and economic changes, there may be market fluctuations. It's better to stay calm and stick to long-term investing rather than reacting to short-term news.
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Don't Sleep On Silver

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Market Trends Economic Analysis
  1. Silver is getting more attention from small investors because it's cheaper and offers good growth potential. Many see it as a practical investment to build wealth gradually.
  2. Recent market events, like the Silver Squeeze of 2021, have highlighted the influence of retail investors and could lead to a stronger focus on silver in future market shifts.
  3. The current high gold-to-silver ratio suggests that silver might be undervalued and ready for a price surge, especially as gold continues to rise. This could be a good time to invest in silver.

Warren Buffett’s Rare Big Investing Mistake

Behavioral Value Investor • 148 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investing Mistakes Valuation Profitability Lessons
  1. Even successful investors like Warren Buffett make mistakes, which is a crucial lesson for all investors.
  2. When investing, it's important to stick to your circle of competence to avoid big investing mistakes.
  3. Paying a high price for an investment with little room for error can be a risky move, highlighting the importance of a margin of safety.

Golden Handcuffs[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 21 May 22
💰 Finance Compensation Stocks Incentives Investing Financial Analysis
  1. Golden handcuffs are financial incentives designed to keep employees with a company for a specific period by offering benefits like stock options.
  2. Companies use golden handcuffs to retain good talent, align employee incentives with company success, and when cash flow is limited.
  3. Considerations when dealing with golden handcuffs include potential stock value fluctuations, public vs. private company shares, and evaluating companies for true value amidst market hype.

What A Trip

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Healthcare Psychedelics
  1. Psychedelics are gaining attention as both a treatment for mental health and a potential investment opportunity. People believe this area could become more accepted and legitimate.
  2. At the beginning of the year, some specific stocks related to psychedelics were highlighted as promising for potential growth and success in 2025.
  3. There's a growing hope that science, public opinion, and political support will come together to help the psychedelics industry move from the sidelines to the mainstream.

Powell: No Pivot, No Party

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Monetary Policy Economic Trends Gold
  1. Powell is sticking to a tough stance on interest rates, focusing on keeping them higher for longer. This means there won't be any quick changes to the economic outlook.
  2. His recent comments show no signs of easing up, which suggests the market won't see a big rally soon, even if world events change.
  3. For now, gold's short-term growth may be slowing down, but the long-term trend still looks positive.

California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Home Prices
  1. California home sales increased by 9.5% in October compared to the previous year, showing a strong recovery.
  2. October 2023 marked the first year-over-year gain in national existing home sales since August 2021 after a long decline.
  3. Mortgage rates, which dropped in August and September, contributed to the rise in sales, but recent increases might slow future sales.

Potential Class Action Argues High APR "Rent-a-Bank" Scheme Violates RICO

Fintech Business Weekly • 96 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Banking Legal Regulation Fintech Lending
  1. A potential class action case argues against a "rent-a-bank" scheme for high APR loans, highlighting the importance of understanding financial regulations and usury laws in the lending industry.
  2. The case brings attention to the evolving landscape between fintech companies and traditional banks, showing the complexities and discussions around defining the true lender in partnerships.
  3. The case also underscores the need for transparency and clarity in financial partnerships, as demonstrated by the alleged lack of distinction between a fintech entity and bank in customer-facing materials.

Saylor's Quotient

The Last Bear Standing • 91 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Bitcoin Market Analysis
  1. Investing in stocks like Kodak can sometimes rely on unexpected factors like pension fund surpluses and potential stock movements based on news.
  2. Successful investing might involve keeping an eye on companies like Celsius Holdings, Inc, and understanding how stock reactions post-earnings might reflect in the market.
  3. MicroStrategy's unique strategy of accumulating Bitcoin adds an interesting premium value to the company, showcasing how the market reacts to assets like bitcoin and stock correlations.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Levels Economic Indicators
  1. In October, existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase, which is the first time this has happened since August 2021. This means more people are buying homes now compared to last year.
  2. The median price of homes rose by about 4.7% compared to the same time last year, showing that homes are becoming more expensive even though sales are still low.
  3. Active inventory of homes for sale went up by 25.9% year-over-year, especially in places like Florida and Texas. This increase could impact home prices in the coming months.

October 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Market Analysis Sales trends
  1. New home sales have sharply decreased recently, which may be linked to high mortgage rates. This situation is causing a lot of homes to sit on the market longer.
  2. The increase in months of inventory suggests that buyers are hesitant or unable to purchase new homes right now. This might indicate a cooling off in the housing market.
  3. The article hints at changes in the housing market that could be significant. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions.

Big tech stocks are surging. Why is that bearish?

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Valuation Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Big tech stocks have seen huge gains, primarily driving the rise of the S&P 500 this year. This doesn't mean the overall market is in trouble, though.
  2. Experts believe that the concentration of these tech stocks doesn't affect future market performance significantly, so there’s no need to worry.
  3. Many stocks outside of tech are doing well, and a lot of analysts expect major tech companies to keep rising in value over the next year.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Inventory
  1. In November, existing-home sales rose to 4.15 million, marking a 4.8% increase from October. This shows a positive trend in the housing market after a long time.
  2. Median house prices went up by 4.7% compared to last year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive, even as sales are improving.
  3. The total housing inventory declined slightly to 1.33 million units, but it's still higher compared to last year. There's a good amount of homes available, but the sales pace keeps inventory lower than before.

Can America Escape the Triffin Dilemma?

European Straits • 11 implied HN points • 27 Jul 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Global Markets Economic History Financial Crises
  1. America's economic strength comes with a downside. To keep the dollar strong globally, the US has to run trade deficits, which hurts its own manufacturing base.
  2. The Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 established the dollar as the world's main currency, but it created a system that eventually led to financial instability when the dollar outgrew its gold reserves.
  3. The 2008 financial crisis showed the flaws in the system as banks struggled without dollar funding, while America's focus on financial markets over manufacturing deepened the problem.

The CBO Isn’t Allowed To Forecast An Inflationary Debt Crisis

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 14 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Debt crisis Inflation Government finance
  1. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) doesn't predict a debt crisis due to its guidelines, but that doesn't mean debt isn't a problem. Just because they aren't seeing a future inflation issue doesn't guarantee everything will be fine.
  2. Economic theories vary widely, and the CBO avoids making bold predictions that could be seen as fearmongering. They focus on neutral assessments rather than trying to forecast potential crises.
  3. Recent history shows that both the CBO and some economists missed significant inflation signals, suggesting that current forecasts about long-term economic stability may not be very reliable.

Seoul Searching

Net Interest • 14 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Investments Cryptocurrency Economics Stocks
  1. KakaoBank in Korea has seen its stock rise significantly because it is preparing for the arrival of stablecoins. They filed trademark applications to be ready for changes in the market.
  2. In contrast, traditional banks like Bank of America are still unsure about stablecoins and how impactful they will be.
  3. KakaoBank's growth reflects the changing attitudes toward digital assets in South Korea, showing how new opportunities can arise from the digital finance sector.

Apollo's Web

Net Interest • 12 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investments Insurance Pensions Private Equity Risk management
  1. Lockheed Martin transferred a large amount of pension obligations to Athene to reduce financial risk and focus on its main business.
  2. Athene, backed by Apollo Global Management, has rapidly grown its pension risk transfer business, sparking concerns about the safety of these arrangements for individuals.
  3. Some employees are worried that private equity's involvement in insurance may lead to higher risks and fewer protections for pension holders.

The Death of QT

The Last Bear Standing • 179 implied HN points • 17 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Banking Sector Market Analysis Financial Stability Central Banking
  1. The Federal Reserve struggled with liquidity tightening, leading to emergency measures and a new financial crisis.
  2. Understanding the monetary plumbing system is crucial to comprehending the impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on the banking sector.
  3. Quantitative Tightening (QT) may not continue for long, as challenges in the banking sector could be exacerbated without further accommodations from the Federal Reserve.

NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Mortgages Credit Economics Debt
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different trends based on credit scores compared to the years before the housing bubble. This means people's borrowing habits and qualifications might have changed significantly.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which suggests that more people might be having trouble making their payments lately.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, meaning that even though some people are struggling to pay, many still manage to keep their homes and avoid losing them.

2025 Macro Outlook

The Last Bear Standing • 36 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Monetary Policy Economic data Investment strategy Labor Market
  1. The Fed is in a new phase of monetary policy, raising questions about whether easing measures are just beginning or already finished. This uncertainty affects markets and investor confidence.
  2. The labor market is showing mixed signals, with job growth continuing but other indicators suggesting a slowdown. This could complicate future monetary policy decisions.
  3. Inflation progress has stalled, and how labor data evolves in 2025 will greatly influence inflation and monetary policy going forward.

Investing Update: 3 Stocks For Year-End

Spilled Coffee • 4 implied HN points • 15 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Market Analysis Financial News
  1. The stock market had a mixed week, with the Dow and S&P 500 up, but the Nasdaq down. Investors are being more careful with tech stocks due to worries about high prices.
  2. Past government shutdowns didn't hurt the stock market historically, as the S&P 500 rose during a recent shutdown. It shows that shutdowns might not impact stocks as much as people think.
  3. Tech stock performance is shaky right now, with fewer stocks above key moving averages, but the S&P 500 is still close to its all-time high. A good earnings report from Nvidia could help stabilize the market.

Leaked Treasury Prime Docs Show Risks Of BaaS Business: Churn, Concentration, Slowing Growth

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
💰 Finance Fintech Banking Regulations Business Models Risk management
  1. Leaked Treasury Prime documents highlight risks in Banking-as-a-Service business, including issues like churn, concentration, and slowing growth.
  2. Treasury Prime's strategic pivot to focus on selling to banks instead of fintechs resulted in drastic employee layoffs, shedding light on the challenging environment for middleware platforms in fintech.
  3. Fintech companies like Chime and Green Dot facing regulatory actions and penalties underscore the importance of compliance and customer service in the financial industry.

Follow Up to Case-Shiller & Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Data Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author analyzed different housing data like Case-Shiller and rent inflation. It's interesting to see how these data points relate to each other.
  2. There are components in the Erdmann Housing Tracker that provide extra insights on the housing market. Comparing these with other measurements helps to understand trends better.
  3. The analysis is not meant for academic purposes, but it's a fun exploration of the data. It shows how digging into numbers can reveal patterns.

Face First

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments Cryptocurrency Economics Regulations Market Trends
  1. Cryptocurrency is becoming a major focus in the U.S., especially with recent government actions. This could be a sign of big changes in the stock market ahead.
  2. President Trump supports crypto by promoting regulations and aiming to make the U.S. a leader in this industry. This includes plans for a national Bitcoin reserve.
  3. There is still uncertainty about the long-term value of cryptocurrencies. People are wondering if they will actually be useful or if they might fail completely.

should you pay tax on food

The Daily Bud • 16 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💰 Finance Tax policy Healthcare Costs Government Regulation
  1. Buying food as medicine can be tricky with tax laws. Only certain medical diets or special food costs may qualify as deductible expenses.
  2. Court cases show that just having a medical condition isn’t enough; the food must be different or cost more than regular food to count for tax deductions.
  3. Changes to tax rules about food as medicine are needed, but that will take time, especially if Congress gets involved.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.