The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Morgan Stanley-Backed TomoCredit Isn't Paying Its Bills, Faces Mounting Legal Challenges

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💰 Finance Fintech Credit Legal Challenges Startups Banking
  1. TomoCredit, a startup backed by Morgan Stanley, is facing financial troubles and legal challenges despite its initial success claims.
  2. Mission Lane, a subprime card startup linked to LendUp, has raised $50 million and replaced its CEO in an effort to reposition itself.
  3. A study by the Federal Reserve reveals differences in how financially stable versus fragile households utilize buy now, pay later services, impacting the types and frequency of purchases made.

Great Investors See Things Differently (Are Mental Models Actually Pointless?)

Neckar’s Notes • 153 implied HN points • 19 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Mental models Knowledge Curiosity Experience
  1. Great investors have a unique perspective that allows them to know more and perceive better than others.
  2. Accumulating knowledge and remaining open-minded are key traits for successful investing.
  3. Successful investors are curious, open-minded, and willing to update their beliefs based on new information.
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Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 90 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index revealed a year-over-year increase of 5.1% in house prices, with expectations of a more positive change in December.
  2. Different measures like the NAR, ICE, and Freddie Mac also show positive trends in house prices, hitting new all-time highs in December 2024.
  3. This analysis provides insights into the current state of the housing market, offering a glimpse into where it has been, where it is now, and where it might be heading.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. Asking rents are pretty stable, with a slight year-over-year drop of 0.6%. This means many people are paying about the same for their apartments as they did last year.
  2. There's a lot more new apartments being built, leading to a higher vacancy rate. This increase in supply is putting pressure on rents and keeps them from rising significantly.
  3. Single-family home rents grew by 1.7% last year but are showing signs of slowing down. Overall, rent growth is not as high as it used to be, indicating a cooling market.

Investing Update: Has Sentiment Shifted? 

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Personal Finance Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market had a positive week, with notable gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow indexes. This followed a strong inflation report that boosted investor confidence.
  2. Inflation is still a concern, with recent CPI readings showing slight increases. The new presidential administration will face challenges related to managing this inflation.
  3. Hedge funds performed well in 2024, with many beating the S&P 500's strong return. Personal portfolio gains were significantly high, leading to discussions about future investment strategies.

What's The Bear Case For Stocks?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Market Valuation Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market is doing really well right now, with many people feeling optimistic, but that can lead to risks if everyone thinks only good things will happen.
  2. Valuations for stocks are at historic highs, which means they might be overpriced and could face a correction soon.
  3. The rising cost of the national debt is a big concern that could impact the economy and market stability in the future.

The second era of fintech

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Fintech Investment Cryptocurrency Market Trends Economic Policy
  1. Fintech is experiencing significant growth again, with companies like Plaid and Klarna showing increased revenue and plans for IPOs. This is a positive sign for the industry after a tough period.
  2. The market has changed how it values fintech revenue, with some companies seeing a drop in their revenue multiples. This creates challenges for startups looking to raise funds or sell.
  3. There’s a lot of optimism in tech startups, especially with advances in AI and improvements in battery technology. Many founders are working on exciting projects that could change the industry.

Sea Limited

Modern Value Investing • 19 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Valuation E-commerce
  1. Sea Limited operates in three main segments: Digital Entertainment (Garena), E-commerce (Shopee), and Digital Financial Services (SeaMoney).
  2. Using a sum of the parts valuation approach, Sea Limited is considered undervalued, offering significant upside for long-term investors.
  3. Shopee is a dominant player in Southeast Asia's e-commerce market with a strong localized approach, mobile-first strategy, and a potential future valuation of $91 billion by 2033.

Why is Debt-to-Income high?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Debt Housing Market Rent Inflation
  1. The debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for households has generally declined since 2007, focusing more on new mortgage borrowers than all families.
  2. Debt payments have increased for older families since lending standards tightened in 2008, delaying when families take on mortgage debt.
  3. Higher rent inflation due to a lack of construction has pushed up mortgage costs in the early years, contributing to high DTIs.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are now 1.3% lower than their peak in 2022. This means homes cost less when you account for inflation.
  2. Real house prices, which consider the effects of inflation, are still quite high compared to the past. They are about 11% above the peak during the housing bubble in 2006.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is also lower than its peak. This suggests that buying homes may be more favorable compared to renting right now.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economics Inventory Analysis
  1. New home listings are up 10.8% compared to last year, which is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Despite this increase, new listings are still lower than they were before the pandemic.
  3. Inventory levels and what happens in March will be crucial in understanding the future of the housing market.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Price analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index increased by 4.0% in November compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising nationally.
  2. In Florida, many cities are facing significant price declines. Out of the 30 cities with the largest drops, 15 are located in Florida.
  3. This data is based on home sales that Freddie Mac has financed and includes regular appraisals. It helps track housing market trends accurately.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.428 million Annual Rate in July

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 19 Aug 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Housing policy Construction
  1. Housing starts rose to an annual rate of 1.428 million in July, which is good news for the housing market. It's a 5.2% increase from the previous month and 12.9% higher than last year.
  2. Single-family housing starts also grew, with a rate of 939,000 in July, up 2.8% from June. This shows that people are actively building homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts have seen even bigger growth, with a 24.1% increase year-over-year. This indicates a strong demand for apartment buildings and larger housing units.

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Housing Prices Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales dropped sharply to an annual rate of 610,000 in October, which is a significant decrease from previous months. This decline might be linked to recent hurricanes affecting certain areas.
  2. The median price of new homes has decreased by 5% from its peak, which is partly due to the types of homes being sold. This suggests a shift in the market's composition.
  3. There is a notable increase in the months of supply for new homes, now at 9.5 months, indicating a bigger inventory than usual. More completed homes are available compared to recent years, especially since the pandemic.

Maryland Latest State To Issue EWA Guidance

Fintech Business Weekly • 126 implied HN points • 20 Aug 23
💰 Finance Fintech Bankruptcy Regulation
  1. Maryland issued guidance on earned wage access (EWA) products, following in the steps of Nevada and Missouri.
  2. CFPB Director Chopra announced new rulemaking to regulate data brokers and protect consumer data.
  3. Analysis of Dave's Q2 earnings shows discrepancies in metrics like average revenue per user, highlighting the importance of looking beyond official reports.

The Sino-US bitcoin ASIC War Begins

Miner Weekly • 19 implied HN points • 16 Nov 23
💰 Finance Mining Regulation Hardware Corporate Feature
  1. Bitcoin's network growth is increasing production costs for mining companies as the halving event nears.
  2. Major mining firms are experiencing both increased and decreased costs of bitcoin production in Q3 compared to Q2.
  3. There is a brewing competition between Sino-U.S. companies in the bitcoin ASIC industry as new equipment is rolled out to meet demands and sustain operations.

Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Housing Market Economic Analysis
  1. Powell's approach to monetary policy is based on conventional models, which may not fully address current economic issues.
  2. There is a concern that inflation is settling above the 2% target due to trends in goods and services.
  3. Housing supply issues contribute to 'inflation' and can be misleading when analyzing monetary policy impacts.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Housing Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. Existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase in November, but overall sales are still low compared to past years. This means the market is slowly improving but hasn't fully bounced back yet.
  2. Inventory levels of homes for sale are rising, especially in states like Florida and Texas. More available homes could impact house prices as we move into the winter months.
  3. New listings are showing slight growth, but they remain lower than historical norms. This could mean fewer options for buyers compared to previous years.

3 Trends I'd Never Bet Against: Lyn Alden

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Energy Economics Technology Trends
  1. Energy density is crucial for modern life and continues to power our economies. It supports everything from electricity to agriculture.
  2. High energy use has allowed technology and human population to grow, especially since the discovery of oil in the late 1800s.
  3. Despite renewable energy sources like wind and solar, we still need efficient, high-density energy sources to maintain economic strength and growth.

Why Can't We Run the Economy Better?

Inland Nobody • 80 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics Economic Growth Predictions Global impact
  1. Economics is a challenging field due to the numerous variables involved in predicting and understanding economic outcomes.
  2. The history of economic growth shows that sustained worldwide economic growth is a relatively recent development, starting around 1820.
  3. Predicting economic trends is complex, similar to predicting the weather, due to the vast number of interconnected variables that can influence economic behavior.

The Housing Shortage Is Larger Than You Think: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 99 HN points • 19 Dec 23
💰 Finance Home Prices Supply and Demand Market Analysis
  1. Bank of America analysis suggests a deficit of 4 million homes in the US due to underbuilding over the past decade.
  2. Home prices spiked by 41% during the Covid boom with 60% attributed to the work-from-home trend.
  3. Vacancies are a crucial part of housing supply, with a potential need for a 300% increase in supply to match demand from 2020-2022.

Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economy Real Estate Forecasting
  1. Housing prices are expected to rise a little in 2025, but not by much. People think the increase will be in the low to mid single digits.
  2. Sales of new and existing homes are predicted to go up next year. However, existing home sales will likely stay around four million.
  3. The construction of multi-family homes is not expected to improve in 2025. Builders are generally cautious about starting new multi-family projects.

GDP per capita or lying with statistics for advanced practitioners

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics GDP Exchange rates Statistics International
  1. GDP per capita is a poor proxy for living standards and doesn’t tell you how well people actually live, so blunt comparisons (like Europe vs a US state) are misleading.
  2. Which exchange rates or base years you use (current dollars, constant dollars) can swing GDP comparisons a lot, letting statistics be used to support very different narratives.
  3. GDP per capita adjusted for PPP better reflects what people can buy with their income and usually narrows gaps with the US, but it’s more complex and rarely used in media headlines.

Core reveals bondholder names

Miner Weekly • 39 implied HN points • 21 Jan 23
💰 Finance Regulation Financial News Corporate News Hardware and Infrastructure Feature
  1. Core Scientific has identified bondholder names like Apollo Capital and MassMutual, among others, who invested nearly $500 million in convertible notes.
  2. Genesis Capital, in bankruptcy protection, owes billions to creditors, with Gemini, Bybit's Mirana Corp, and Babel Finance among the top creditors.
  3. Hut8 avoided major losses by providing a loan to Genesis and ensuring no outstanding amounts as of Q2'22.

Nvidia Record High Thoughts

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economics Financial Analysis Market Trends
  1. Nvidia has reached a new all-time high, breaking the $150 barrier recently. This indicates the company's strong performance in early 2025.
  2. The writer remains confident in Nvidia's prospects, indicating a long-term positive view on the stock.
  3. The current stock level prompts reflections on whether to buy more, sell, or adjust their position, highlighting the decision-making process for investors.

An Athenian Odyssey

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Investing Economics Regulation Market Trends
  1. Greek banks faced huge challenges after a financial crisis, losing most of their market value and seeing many loans go unpaid.
  2. Despite a tough recovery process, the Greek economy is growing again, and banks are starting to regain investor confidence.
  3. A transformation is underway in Greece, with international banks showing interest in investing, which reflects a healthier banking system.

Hitting Pause

The Last Bear Standing • 152 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
💰 Finance Inflation Financial Stability Implications
  1. The Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate hikes soon, signaling a shift in monetary policy.
  2. Inflation has been influenced by significant increases in money supply during the pandemic, impacting consumer behavior and economic growth.
  3. Financial stability is a top concern for the Fed, potentially outweighing traditional inflation targets and leading to a pause in rate hikes.

Is the Capital One/Discover Deal Good or Bad For “Competition”? Yes.

Fintech Business Weekly • 81 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
💰 Finance Fintech Regulation Banking Acquisition Legislation
  1. Capital One's acquisition of Discover is a complex deal that has both good and bad elements for competition, creating a potential shake up in the US payments space.
  2. The CFPB is using once-dormant authority to supervise nonbank entities like World Acceptance Corp, focusing on risks to consumers.
  3. Acting Comptroller Hsu suggests creating a federal money transmitter licensing framework to better regulate non-bank companies providing bank-like services, highlighting potential risks in the growing role of non-bank firms in banking areas.

This company mined bitcoin for free in Q3

Miner Weekly • 19 implied HN points • 09 Nov 23
💰 Finance Earnings Regulation Hardware Corporate Financial
  1. Bitcoin's price and hashprice have been on the rise, showcasing a positive trend in the market.
  2. Several mining companies found success through industry consolidation amid challenges faced by others in the past year.
  3. Riot Platforms effectively mined bitcoin for free in Q3 by leveraging power curtailment credits, showcasing innovative cost-saving methods in the mining industry.

Three Names Worth Updating: Chris DeMuth

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 12 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Hedge Funds Value investing Personal Finance
  1. Great investors often look for value in boring places that others ignore. It's not always about the latest trends or flashy companies.
  2. Consistency and patience are key; buying good assets at a fair price can lead to great results over time.
  3. Sometimes, it's better to seek out decent opportunities at a discount rather than chasing after the next big success. Aim for steady and reliable investments.

Too Big To Fail

The Last Bear Standing • 160 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Bonds Liquidity Regulation Risk management
  1. In the mid-2000s, banks faced a significant problem with growing leverage and inadequate cash reserves.
  2. The 2008 financial crisis led to emergency bailouts to address liquidity issues in the banking sector.
  3. While regulations and liquidity injections have reduced the risk of widespread liquidity crises in large U.S. banks, the 'too-big-to-fail' problem persists in the broader financial system.

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Mule’s Musings • 83 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Market Analysis Company Updates
  1. The post discusses the performance of different companies in the automotive and optics sectors, highlighting particular stocks like NXPI, IFX, FN, COHR, MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, and ARM.
  2. It mentions an observation that automotive stocks are performing poorly while optics stocks are doing well.
  3. There is a note about Rambus having a breather and SLAB putting a bottom in, suggesting potential shifts in their performance.