The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Money Supply Growth Continues to Support the Stock Market

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Economics Markets Stocks Indicators
  1. Money supply growth is crucial for supporting the stock market as it indicates the tightness or looseness of current monetary conditions, regardless of interest rates set by the Fed.
  2. Monitoring money supply trends can provide insight into the direction of the economy and stock market - a rise in money supply can have inflationary effects.
  3. Historical trends show that fluctuations in money supply can influence stock market movements, with drops often preceding market dips.

Eight steps to a better financial future

A Bit Gamey • 6 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Savings Wealth Management Financial planning Risk management
  1. Cutting back on spending can help you save money without sacrificing enjoyment. Making small, easy cuts can really add up.
  2. It's important to have an emergency fund for unexpected situations. Protecting yourself financially can give you peace of mind.
  3. Invest in your future by researching and learning about different investment options. The more you know, the better decisions you can make.

Cascading Collapse: Navigating the Tumultuous Future of Global Economy and Energy

Anima Mundi • 20 implied HN points • 11 Dec 23
💰 Finance Economy Cryptocurrency Energy Trade Inflation
  1. The global economy is facing challenges due to a disconnect between production and mounting debt.
  2. Focusing on green energy alone may not solve the economic crisis caused by resource scarcity.
  3. Potential scenarios after a financial crash include the possibility of relying on Bitcoin, challenges in returning to the gold standard, and the slow burn decline of the global economy.

Quant Letter: February 2024, Week-3

The Parlour • 17 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
💰 Finance Research Analysis Simulation Detection
  1. Research suggests Double Deep Q-learning can learn optimal trading strategies in fluctuating liquidity conditions.
  2. Investors decide to buy additional information about an asset's trajectory based on the indifference price of information.
  3. The RAGIC model predicts future stock prices accurately with a consistent 95% coverage using a Generative Adversarial Network.
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It wasn’t always this way

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Investment Strategies
  1. Central banks today are better at managing inflation than they were 25 years ago. They now have a more effective system that targets inflation instead of just controlling money supply.
  2. Inflation targeting has become the main approach for many central banks, replacing older methods that often failed. This helps ensure more stable economies.
  3. While some people want to try new economic policies, the current system is generally better than past strategies that led to crises. It's important to remember the lessons learned from history.

The hedge funds strike back

The Jolly Contrarian • 39 implied HN points • 19 Feb 21
💰 Finance Legal Risk management
  1. Hedge funds made a comeback after a ruling in a unique case involving an accidental large payment from Citibank to hedge funds on behalf of Revlon, leading to legal battles and appeals.
  2. The case highlighted issues with operational errors, system design complexity, and the application of legal concepts like restitution in contract disputes.
  3. Exploring books on human error investigations and accidents shed light on organizational risks, system failures, and the human factors behind accidents in various industries.

Retirement

We're Gonna Get Those Bastards • 8 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Retirement Investing Personal Finance Social Security Economic Trends
  1. Having a plan for retirement is important to avoid boredom. Rather than just watching TV all day, think about activities you enjoy or new hobbies you want to pursue.
  2. Working longer can lead to better financial stability in retirement. Delaying Social Security benefits can significantly increase the amount you receive later on.
  3. To have a fulfilling retirement, it’s crucial to keep engaging with the world. Experiences and social interactions can provide inspiration for creative pursuits like writing.

Issue #95: X Is Getting Into P2P Payments, Circle Files For An IPO, And Revolut Gains Interest In Its HR Tech Offering

Fintech Radar • 18 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Fintech Payments IPO
  1. Twitter (X) plans to introduce peer-to-peer payments, a logical starting point given its large user base and commerce opportunities
  2. Revolut's HR platform, Revolut People, attracts over 300 companies to its waitlist, surprising with strong interest in the offering
  3. Mastercard is developing an AI tool for small businesses, showing a cautious approach amid a potential trend towards more AI-focused innovations in the market

Why are tech companies more sensitive to interest rates?

Entry Level Investing • 16 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Tech Companies
  1. Tech companies, especially high-growth but unprofitable ones, are highly impacted by interest rates during investing.
  2. The value of tech companies is largely based on future projections, making them sensitive to discount rates which determine present value.
  3. In a market with expensive capital, tech companies' future profits are heavily discounted, while in a market with cheap capital, their value can increase significantly.

Trading Catastrophe

Net Interest • 5 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Insurance Risk management Capital Markets Asset Classes
  1. Hurricane Andrew changed how insurers think about risks. They realized they needed better coverage and to assess risk differently.
  2. Catastrophe bonds, or cat bonds, became popular after Hurricane Andrew. They allow investors to earn interest while helping insurers cover major losses.
  3. Today, cat bonds are expanding into retail markets, making them accessible to everyday investors. They have shown good returns, even as disasters become more frequent.

I'm joining Asymmetric to invest in Bitcoin DeFi

The Held Report • 16 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Blockchain Investing Cryptocurrency Startups
  1. Dan Held is joining Asymmetric to invest in Bitcoin DeFi, focusing on Bitcoin L2s, Dapps, and Ordinals.
  2. Bitcoin's potential in DeFi is massive, with $1 trillion in value that can be unlocked, attracting new users and advancing adoption.
  3. Bitcoin DeFi is seen as the future, with the space expected to evolve and bring significant advancements in the crypto world.

What happens when you ask 146 economists the same question?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 24 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics Investment Data Analysis Research Policy
  1. When 146 economists analyzed the same data about a policy, they found similar results despite minor differences in their estimates. This suggests that economists can broadly agree when working with the same information.
  2. The researchers found that differences in opinions among economists often arise from how they interpret data and their theoretical models. So, disagreements aren't always about facts but can depend on personal beliefs and biases.
  3. The study showed that with clear instructions and the same data, economists tend to reach almost the same conclusions. This challenges the idea that economists will always have conflicting views.

Do you need a global equity forecasting model?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Data science Portfolio Management
  1. Most of the time, you don't need a complex global model to forecast stock markets. Just using local data can work well.
  2. The study showed that while international data can help in special cases, local history is often enough for reliable forecasts.
  3. Markets are generally priced efficiently around the world, meaning simpler forecasting models can be just as effective without losing accuracy.

It's 2025 and life is still messy

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Market Trends Sustainability
  1. The author writes on various topics related to economics and finance throughout the week, with Mondays focusing on ESG and sustainability, and Fridays being more lighthearted and fun.
  2. The posts challenge common theories and emphasize understanding the real world through experimental data rather than traditional economic models.
  3. Life and financial markets are unpredictable, and it's important to embrace curiosity about how things really work instead of relying on rigid theories.

Small, Value, or Small/Value?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Portfolio Risk management Research
  1. Investors looking to improve their portfolio might want to use a small-cap value fund instead of mixing small-cap and value funds. This approach often leads to better returns despite a bit more risk.
  2. Using one focused fund can help avoid confusion and duplication from multiple investments. It simplifies the investment strategy and is usually more effective.
  3. If you want specific investment factors, it's often best to choose one product that combines those factors, rather than several different ones that might overlap.

Quant Letter: October 2023, Week 2

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Quantitative finance Machine Learning Reinforcement Learning
  1. The post is about a quantitative finance newsletter for October 2023, Week 2.
  2. A recently published thesis discusses Deep RL for Portfolio Allocation, showing the potential of deep reinforcement learning in enhancing portfolio allocation methods.
  3. Readers can subscribe to Machine Learning & Quant Finance for more content and a 7-day free trial.

The thin edge of the wedge

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing ESG Regulation Market Trends
  1. Only a small number of analysts talk about climate change in their reports, with just 1% doing so regularly. This suggests they don’t prioritize these issues much.
  2. Reports that do discuss climate change mostly focus on industries that are directly affected, like utilities and electronics. This means other sectors might be ignoring important climate topics.
  3. Analysts seem less enthusiastic about climate change now due to political pushback, and they may use that as an excuse to not address it in their work.

Investing Update: Lower Returns Ahead?

Spilled Coffee • 8 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Forecast Financial News
  1. The S&P 500 is hitting more record highs, showing strong momentum in the market. Many stocks are performing well, with the majority above their moving averages.
  2. Despite the positive market trends, expectations for future returns might be lower. It's important to note that past strong performances don't guarantee the same results in the future.
  3. The current earnings season could boost the market even more, but there are concerns about seasonal downturns that usually happen in October, which haven't materialized this year.

Contagion

Net Interest • 30 implied HN points • 17 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Market Analysis Regulation
  1. When a bank fails, it affects the entire industry differently than other types of companies.
  2. Contagion in the financial sector can spread through customer confidence more than asset or origin similarities.
  3. Market reactions and indicators can be key in predicting and reacting to potential banking crises.

This is Flow

Malt Liquidity • 17 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Cryptocurrency Markets ETFs Trading
  1. Trading becoming majority-passive may disincentivize real trading based on information asymmetry
  2. Introduction of a BTC spot ETF may not benefit those seeking exposure to Bitcoin for actual trading
  3. Transition of crypto into traditional system through ETFs may contradict the original ethos of crypto being outside regulatory control

What you see is all there is

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Behavioral Finance Market Analysis Wealth Management
  1. People tend to focus only on the most obvious information when making decisions. This can lead to ignoring important factors like fund fees.
  2. A recent study showed that changing how fees are presented can significantly influence investment choices. Making fees stand out can lead to people choosing lower-fee funds more often.
  3. Simple changes in how information is displayed can help investors make better choices. This is important for improving their long-term financial success.

Factor anomalies 1900 to 1925

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 15 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Stock Performance
  1. Momentum investing worked well even before 1926, showing that it has been a reliable strategy for a long time.
  2. Small-cap stocks performed better than large-cap stocks in some markets, but results varied and were not consistent everywhere.
  3. Low volatility stocks generally outperformed high volatility stocks, but the evidence for this was mixed across different markets.

Will gold pave the yellow BRICS road?

The Informationist • 4 HN points • 09 Jul 23
💰 Finance Global Economy Currency Gold Debt Reserve Currency
  1. BRICS nations are considering introducing a gold-backed currency to reduce dependency on the US dollar.
  2. The US has deviated from the gold standard, leading to concerns about debt levels and potential economic implications.
  3. For the gold-backed currency to work, BRICS nations would need to establish trust and a system that ensures the currency is fully redeemable for gold, potentially impacting the global financial landscape.

Clouded Judgement 2.23.24 - Rule of X

Clouded Judgement • 15 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Valuation Metrics Company performance Investment Strategies Financial trends
  1. The importance of growth and profitability in the Rule of 40 for cloud software companies varies over time, with current public markets valuing growth 3.0x more than FCF margin in valuation multiples.
  2. 2024 guides from Q4 calls are not increasing consensus estimates, indicating companies are setting cautious expectations amidst market uncertainty.
  3. Valuation multiples for SaaS businesses are calculated based on their projected revenue, with growth, FCF margin, and NTM growth rate influencing stock valuations.

What Is Inflation?

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation Price theory Monetary Policy Market Dynamics
  1. Inflation is when prices keep going up over time, not just a one-time price hike. This shows that inflation affects the overall economy and not just individual items.
  2. Measuring inflation involves looking at how much purchasing power money loses. When money loses value, prices generally rise, which means inflation is happening.
  3. It's important to consider how supply and demand for money influence inflation. Understanding this can help people assess the real causes behind rising prices and not just blame specific products.

Boost German consumption, blow up more ATMs

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment Economics Consumption Digital Payments
  1. Germans save more and spend less compared to other Europeans, often preferring cash over digital payments. This is influenced by a cultural focus on privacy and past experiences with authoritarian regimes.
  2. Cash is less convenient as it requires ATMs, and when ATMs are unavailable, people tend to use electronic payments more. This shift can lead to increased spending as people don't 'feel' the money leaving their wallets.
  3. Researchers found that locations with bombed ATMs saw a temporary increase in spending. Therefore, limiting ATM access could be a quirky way to encourage more consumer spending in Germany.

Philosophical economics: The golden calf of business and finance

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Tax policy Economic Growth Fiscal policy Investment Strategies Corporate Finance
  1. Cutting taxes isn't always the best option for improving the economy. Sometimes, raising taxes can actually help fund important things like infrastructure and education.
  2. There's a lot of disagreement about whether low taxes lead to higher profits and growth. In reality, many developed countries show no clear link between tax rates and economic growth.
  3. It's important to consider how tax money is spent. If governments invest in useful projects, they can create more value than just cutting taxes.

Guan Tao on the yuan's exchange rate as an asset price

Pekingnology • 15 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Financial Stability Monetary Policy
  1. China's Renminbi exchange rate is now seen as an asset price, showing characteristics of asset pricing and requiring an understanding beyond traditional commodity money views.
  2. The flexibility of the Renminbi exchange rate helps release pressure, acts as a shock absorber, and ensures market resilience in the face of fluctuations.
  3. Maintaining a flexible exchange rate policy supports China's pursuit of institutional openness, providing coordination between development and security.