The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

401(k)s Are Failing Americans.

JoeWrote • 29 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
💰 Finance Retirement Pensions Savings Wealth
  1. 401(k)s are leaving many Americans unable to retire due to insufficient funds.
  2. 401(k)s were never intended to be the main retirement system but have been pushed as such by employers.
  3. The shift from pensions to 401(k)s has placed an unrealistic burden of retirement savings on individuals, leading to many people working past traditional retirement ages.

Clouded Judgement 12.27.24 - 2024 Year End Review

Clouded Judgement • 8 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Financial Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. In 2024, the median multiple for cloud software stocks was 6.1x, showing stability throughout the year. This means that software companies were valued similarly at the beginning and end of the year.
  2. Only a few companies had impressive growth, with just 3 companies increasing over 100% in stock price. Most companies had mild performance, with half going up and half going down.
  3. Key companies like Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, and Datadog consistently ranked in the top ten for valuation multiples. This shows their strong market position over the past few years.

[P] HSY: Applying Governance Molds

Nongaap Investing • 7 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Governance Markets Economics Corporate
  1. Governance molds help organizations shape their operations effectively. This can lead to better decision-making and overall success.
  2. Investors should consider how governance practices can impact a company's performance. Good governance can mean higher returns.
  3. Applying these governance molds requires careful planning and understanding of a company's needs. It's important to tailor approaches to fit specific situations.
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[P] UNH: Itemized Governance Signals

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 19 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing Governance Markets Analysis
  1. Governance disclosures can provide valuable signals about a company's management and decision-making. It's important to pay attention to these signals when investing.
  2. Understanding the fundamentals of non-GAAP measures can help in evaluating a company's performance more accurately than traditional metrics.
  3. Being a paid subscriber offers exclusive insights that can enhance your investment knowledge and strategies. It’s worth considering if you're serious about investing.

5 Takeaways from CalSTRS’ Private Equity Performance Report

East Wind • 7 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Private Equity Investment strategy Venture Capital Market Trends
  1. Traditional buyout strategies are the main focus in private market investing, making up the majority of capital deployed. This means investors often look for large returns by channeling money into these proven strategies.
  2. Private equity investments take a long time to provide returns, sometimes over a decade. Many firms are staying private longer, which can slow down how quickly capital returns to investors.
  3. Venture capital investments have seen a significant decrease lately, with much lower capital contribution compared to previous years. This change highlights a shift in the market, making it harder for funds to generate strong returns.

Discounts for Everyone!

Harnessing the Power of Nutrients • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jun 22
💰 Finance Discounts
  1. There are 25 discounts available to use right away on various brands like MASA chips, Paleovalley, and more.
  2. To access the discounts, you need to enter your email on the website provided by Chris Masterjohn, PhD.
  3. By entering your email, you can prevent the discounts from being picked up by bots and avoid them getting shared on coupon sites.

A Bond Unlike Any Other

Malt Liquidity • 8 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Consumer behavior Market Analysis
  1. McDonald's has a strong supply chain and offers consistent revenue growth because people love their products. This makes it a safe investment in uncertain times.
  2. Ordering through the McDonald's app can save you money due to inflated menu prices for delivery. Always check the app for discounts before you order.
  3. In an inflationary environment, holding stocks like McDonald's is better than bonds. They have stable, predictable revenues that can help beat inflation.

[P] TENB: Tenable Reasons to Sell

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 17 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Mergers Acquisitions Analysis
  1. Monitor potential mergers and acquisitions in the market for insights on investment opportunities. It's important to stay alert to changes that might affect investments.
  2. Consider specific reasons for selling stocks, as understanding when to exit can protect investments. There are valid factors that could influence this decision.
  3. Paid subscriptions can offer deeper analysis and more tailored insights, which can be beneficial for serious investors. Having access to premium content might give you an edge.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Affordability Indexes Housing
  1. Real house prices in the US are currently 2.4% below the recent peak, indicating a slight decline in prices adjusted for inflation.
  2. It's important to consider the price-to-rent ratio to understand the affordability of housing markets.
  3. National house prices are historically high after being 10.2% above the bubble peak level, despite the market's ups and downs over 17 years.

Know Your Enemy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Hedge Funds
  1. The market surge in valuation-agnostic investing will eventually decline, according to Harris Kupperman.
  2. Understanding your opposition when trading means evaluating if they have a unique viewpoint or if they are making irrational decisions.
  3. Identifying opponents who are not basing decisions on valuations can present lucrative opportunities in trading.

Lawler: Update on American Homes for Rent (AMH)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Rental market Inflation Earnings
  1. American Homes for Rent (AMH) saw a decline in occupancy rate last quarter, contrasting with Invitation Homes.
  2. The average monthly rents of INVH and AMH seem to lead the CPI's Rent of Primary Residence by about two quarters, and rent growth has remained above the overall inflation rate.
  3. Rental inflation remains elevated for many single-family renters despite certain limitations in the rent trend comparisons and geographic focuses of these companies.

America's Economy Was Bigger Than We Thought

Apricitas Economics • 26 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economy Investment Data Analysis
  1. The US economy was actually larger than previously believed due to comprehensive revisions in GDP data.
  2. America's investment boom was stronger than initially reported, with notable upgrades in real fixed investment across sectors like housing and manufacturing.
  3. Revisions to US GDP data included improved methodologies, extensive data integration, and new data series to enhance the accuracy of measuring economic growth.

Four minutes

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Consumer behavior Portfolio Management Risk management
  1. Many retail investors focus on just a few stocks, creating a big risk in their portfolios. This makes their investments less diversified and potentially more risky.
  2. Research shows that retail investors often spend very little time figuring out which stocks to buy or sell. On average, they only spend about 20 minutes looking into a stock before making a decision.
  3. The most common research method for these investors is to check short-term price movements rather than doing deep analysis. This can lead to making decisions based on trends instead of solid information.

Buying the Dip

reedmolbak • 2 HN points • 05 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Assets Market Analysis Risk management Financial Modeling
  1. Buying the dip strategy involves waiting for an asset price to drop below a specific threshold before purchasing it, but simulation data shows that this strategy is usually less effective than buying regularly.
  2. When dealing with volatile assets, buying the dip can be beneficial if the asset underperforms in the median case but significantly overperforms occasionally, providing exposure without heavy losses.
  3. For stable assets or normal investors, buying regularly is usually the best strategy as it requires less effort and is generally more effective than trying to time the market by waiting for price dips.

How the Banking System Changed Post-SVB

Apricitas Economics • 32 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
💰 Finance Banking System Economic Analysis Financial Institutions Risk management Monetary Policy
  1. After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the American banking industry is adapting by relying less on uninsured deposits and more on alternative funding methods like borrowings.
  2. Deposits have restabilized post-SVB crisis, but banks are facing challenges with tight lending standards due to renewed economic pessimism and liquidity concerns.
  3. Banks are cautiously navigating post-SVB crisis by reducing reliance on uninsured deposits, managing securities losses, and addressing liquidity worries amid tighter monetary policy.

Let me fix those forecasts for you

Klement on Investing • 7 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Forecasting Equities Financial trends
  1. Forecasts for stock market returns are often inaccurate. For example, analysts expected the S&P 500 to rise by about 8% in 2024, but it actually rose by 23%.
  2. Historical data shows a low correlation between predicted and actual stock market returns. Over the last 20 years, the correlation for analysts' forecasts has been very weak.
  3. Using forecast errors, we can adjust predictions for the next year. For 2025, the S&P 500's return could realistically range from a 29% drop to a 47% increase.

The Economy Is A Powder Keg, Boiling Over And Ready To Blow

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 34 implied HN points • 01 May 23
💰 Finance Economy Banking Policy Precious metals
  1. Pressure is building up in the economic system with five major banks collapsing since March.
  2. Equity prices are high despite economic turmoil, indicating possible blow off valves elsewhere like precious metals.
  3. The government's casual attitude towards bailing out banks and printing money could have massive consequences for the economy and may lead to a shift towards precious metals.

Issue #141: X Partners with Visa, Wise’s LatAm Push, And Australia Tightens BNPL Rules

Fintech Radar • 6 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Fintech Payments Investing Regulation Digital Currency
  1. X has teamed up with Visa to introduce a digital payment feature in their app. This move aims to make X a more comprehensive service, but it raises concerns about user trust and market competition.
  2. Wise has expanded its services to Mexico, focusing on providing low-cost international payment options. This expansion comes as the demand for remittances in Mexico grows, presenting both challenges and opportunities.
  3. Australia is tightening regulations for Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services by requiring providers to apply for credit licenses. This change could favor established companies while making it harder for new entrants to join the market.

Tony Robbins’ Favorite Asset Class

Net Interest • 18 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Management Private Equity Asset management Financial Education
  1. Tony Robbins has invested in over 100 privately held businesses with combined sales over $7 billion, leveraging his brand to immense success.
  2. Robbins emphasized the concept of 'GP stakes', where investors buy minority positions in asset management firms, such as what he did with Blue Owl through CAZ Investments.
  3. The GP stakes business model focuses on buying into asset management firms and can be highly lucrative, providing exposure to various private asset management firms.

Startup stock options: Liquidity options

Brick by Brick • 18 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Startup Investment Stocks
  1. Common shares vs Preferred shares: Know the differences. Common shareholders may face challenges like Right of First Refusal (ROFR) when transacting with their shares.
  2. Liquidity avenues for startup common shares include IPOs (least likely), M&A, tender offers, private share sales, and equity financing. Each option comes with its own set of complexities and approvals.
  3. Preferred shareholder rights like Liquidation Preference and Participation Right can significantly impact common shareholders during exits, potentially wiping out their earnings completely. Understanding these rights is crucial in startup shareholder dynamics.

Quant Letter: December 2023, Week-3

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
💰 Finance Quantitative Financial Market Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. Recent research is exploring innovative methods for quantitative investing, such as using deep learning algorithms and new portfolio optimization models.
  2. There are profitable opportunities in the ETF lending market due to cost differences between borrowing ETFs and stocks, creating room for cross-ETF arbitrage.
  3. Studies are showcasing the importance of adaptive investment strategies focused on resilience, active ownership, and broader financial models to navigate fast-changing environments.

Repost: Armed conflict investor survival guide

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Geopolitics Economic Trends Risk management
  1. Don't panic during geopolitical crises. Most of these events don't affect the stock market in the long run, so it's usually better to stay calm and not sell off shares quickly.
  2. Evaluate the situation carefully by asking key questions about the impact on infrastructure, inflation, and interest rates before making any investment decisions.
  3. In many cases, the smart move is to buy risky assets when they dip, especially if there’s no long-term effect on the economy. Short-term panic selling can create good buying opportunities.

Risk of Ruin

Net Interest • 24 implied HN points • 13 Oct 23
💰 Finance Risk management Investing Behavioral Finance Portfolio Management Cryptocurrency
  1. Participants in a study about managing financial risk did not fully exploit their edge in a coin-flipping game.
  2. Proper position sizing is crucial in gambling and financial markets to maximize returns and manage risk effectively.
  3. Understanding and applying formulas like Kelly's criterion can help in making optimal bets and improving performance in investing.

Understanding startup stock options: Part 1

Brick by Brick • 18 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Options Taxation Valuation Liquidity
  1. Stock options are a key part of startup employee compensation, involving vesting schedules and the opportunity to buy company shares at a set price.
  2. 409A valuations determine the fair market value of a company's stock, influencing employee stock option prices and taxation.
  3. The 90-day window after leaving a company requires employees to decide whether to exercise their vested stock options or lose them, potentially facing significant financial implications.

Is Eurozone debt sustainable?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing Debt Economic Policy Fiscal Responsibility Public Finance
  1. Eurozone countries have improved their debt situation since the last crisis, with many nations now reducing their deficits. This change indicates that they are handling their finances better.
  2. Germany is increasing its spending but can manage it, while France's high deficits look concerning. In contrast, the US is facing larger deficits and has become less fiscally responsible over time.
  3. The fiscal rules in the Eurozone help keep debt under control, and countries with higher debts tend to correct their spending more effectively after increasing their deficits.

Longer, then faster

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Debt Treasury
  1. The proposed One Big Beautiful Bill Act could increase the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next ten years. This could lead to higher interest rates on government bonds, which makes borrowing more expensive.
  2. With rising debt, long-term Treasury yields are likely to go up significantly. As the debt burden increases, investors in the bond market might react quickly, which can lead to sharp changes in interest rates.
  3. The impact of increasing debt might not be felt right away, but it can snowball quickly. It's important to keep an eye on these trends because economic changes can happen faster than expected.

Quant Letter: November 2023, Week 4

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
💰 Finance Machine Learning Quantitative finance Financial Modeling Algorithmic Trading Portfolio Management
  1. The paper introduces a methodology using Shapley values to understand the contribution of different factors in portfolio performance.
  2. It presents the versatile SPPC method for evaluating predictor group contributions to portfolio success.
  3. The SPPC method quantifies predictor impacts and offers insights into changing dynamics over time in financial machine learning.

The Gold Standard Is Back: BRICS To Intro Gold-Backed Reserve Currency

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 10 Jul 23
💰 Finance Currency Gold Standard Reserve Currency De-dollarization Global Trade
  1. BRICS countries are planning to introduce a gold-backed reserve currency, challenging the US dollar's dominance.
  2. The move could lead to a devaluation of fiat currencies and pose a shock to the global fiat money system.
  3. This announcement is part of a larger plan to de-dollarize and shift away from the US dollar as the world's global reserve currency.