The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Exclusive details: inside the FTX data room

Jon’s Newsletter • 139 implied HN points • 13 Nov 22
🔮 Crypto Blockchain Investments Regulations Market Analysis Bankruptcy
  1. FTX faced a major financial crisis just before filing for bankruptcy, with a huge gap between its liabilities and liquid assets. This raised red flags for potential investors.
  2. Sam Bankman-Fried was in a rush to raise $6-10 billion and had to quickly set up a data room to attract investors, but the information provided only raised more questions.
  3. As communication with investors broke down, Sam became increasingly difficult to reach, indicating a deteriorating situation leading up to the bankruptcy filing.

Mining stocks could sync up with bitcoin rally soon?

Miner Weekly • 19 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Regulation News Hardware and Infrastructure News Corporate News
  1. Bitcoin set an all-time high after more than 840 days, while mining stocks have lagged behind, presenting a history of this disconnect.
  2. Mining stocks mostly underperformed compared to bitcoin, with many still down over 60% from their highs in November 2021.
  3. Historical data shows that mining stocks have often trailed behind bitcoin's return to all-time highs, but when the full bull run returns, they have the potential to outperform.

Can dissipating energy be profitable ?

GEM Energy Analytics • 79 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
💼 Business Energy Economics Renewables Market Analysis Investment
  1. Dissipating energy can actually be a business opportunity, especially when there's a lot of renewable energy that needs to be used quickly. This could be done by creating heat with electricity.
  2. The European power markets show that there is potential to earn money by providing flexible energy solutions, such as using heaters or other simple devices to quickly use excess electricity.
  3. A smarter way to approach energy dissipation is to use the heat generated from electricity for useful purposes, like district heating, instead of just wasting it.

Is 2023 the very best or the very worst time to be investing in AI?

Entry Level Investing • 100 implied HN points • 29 Aug 23
🕹 Technology AI Investing Startups Market Analysis Venture Capital
  1. Interest rates impact tech company valuations, especially high growth tech companies sensitive to changes.
  2. VC deal activity and funding have decreased in 2023 due to compressed valuations in public markets.
  3. AI investments are increasing as a bright spot in the market, with investors turning to AI startups amid a grim funding environment.
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Large-scale battery systems: potential use cases in Albania

GEM Energy Analytics • 79 implied HN points • 07 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Energy Storage Renewable Energy Market Analysis Infrastructure Environmental Impact
  1. Large-scale batteries can help store energy and improve the electricity system in Albania. They could be useful in stabilizing the grid and providing backup power.
  2. These batteries can also help with buying and selling electricity at different prices, which may become profitable in the future as the market develops. This could help businesses make more money from energy.
  3. Co-locating batteries with renewable energy sources can enhance performance and reduce costs related to energy supply. This allows for better management of energy production and consumption.

Day 2: A Comedy of Errors

Malt Liquidity • 6 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Trading Investment Market Analysis Risk management Simulations
  1. Following rules can be tough, especially in trading. Straying from common advice can lead to mistakes, like taking on too much risk or not using stop losses.
  2. Taking on a large position without proper planning can result in big losses. It's essential to manage your trade size and understand the potential consequences of your decisions.
  3. Trading simulations can be a fun way to learn, but they also have strict limits. It's important to adapt your strategies to fit the rules of the system you're using.

Monthly captured values of solar in selected EU countries

GEM Energy Analytics • 79 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Solar Power Market Analysis Energy Policy
  1. Spain is rapidly increasing its solar energy capacity, expecting to reach over 77 GW by 2026. However, it faces challenges in exporting excess energy due to its limited connections to other countries.
  2. Greece is also expanding its solar capacity, aiming for 15.9 GW by 2026. It is better connected to neighboring countries than Spain, but rising solar energy shares are affecting local prices.
  3. The 'cannibalization factor' shows how much solar energy prices are pressured down by increased solar generation. In both Spain and Greece, this factor has been decreasing over time.

Niche is the Next Big Thing

Equal Ventures • 59 implied HN points • 29 Dec 22
💼 Business Venture Capital Competition Market Analysis Business Strategies Startups
  1. Competition in the tech industry has intensified, making it essential for companies to find a sustainable advantage to generate long-term profitability.
  2. Focusing on niche markets can lead to less competition, higher profits, and sustainable growth compared to chasing large markets with intense competition.
  3. Dominating a niche market allows for the development of early competitive advantages, market dominance, and long-term profitability, providing a foundation for future expansion and success.

🧩E13: Chiplets - How Chip Lego is Driving AI Progress

Let Us Face the Future • 119 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Innovation Market Analysis Research and Development
  1. Chiplets are a modular approach to building computer chips by combining multiple smaller 'chiplets' instead of a single monolithic design.
  2. Chiplets offer benefits like improved manufacturing yield, diverse process nodes, and cost savings through reusing pre-tested chiplets.
  3. The chiplet market is growing rapidly, expected to be worth $20 billion by 2027, driven by demand for AI and HPC accelerators.

Rain or Shine for Alibaba Cloud?

Tech Buzz China Insider • 59 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Cloud Computing Market Analysis Competitors Infrastructure
  1. In the Chinese cloud computing market, Alibaba Cloud leads and is more profitable compared to Tencent and Huawei due to its robust products and market fit.
  2. Alibaba Cloud has evolved sales strategies over time, shifting from a product-driven approach to catering to traditional enterprises and government clients.
  3. The future growth of the cloud sector, including for Alibaba Cloud, is expected in areas like AI and EVs, with significant investments being made in these sectors.

Quiet Before the Storm?

nicosmid • 39 implied HN points • 08 Aug 23
🔮 Crypto Bitcoin Mining Market Analysis Industry
  1. The mining industry is currently experiencing a period of quiet and stability.
  2. Key factors like Bitcoin price, network hashrate, and ASIC prices are maintaining a steady trend.
  3. This calm period may indicate a break for the industry after a significant growth phase.

Office Sales Roundup

Warden Capital • 39 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
💼 Business Real Estate Investment Market Analysis
  1. Recent office investment sales market has shown positive trends after a period of minimal activity.
  2. Notable sales like RBC Gateway in Minneapolis and Boston Bunch in downtown Boston highlight strong values and positive outcomes.
  3. Buyers acquiring large office deals across the country provide clarity on pricing levels and signal potential market recovery.

Changing Lanes: Li Auto's Drive from Green Plates to Pure Watts

Tech Buzz China Insider • 39 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💼 Business Electric Vehicles Automotive Industry Technology Trends Market Analysis Profitability
  1. Li Auto has shown impressive sales, profits, and stock performance, surpassing its competitors in the market.
  2. Li Auto specializes in extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), combining electric and gasoline power for efficiency and range.
  3. Amidst challenges like license plate restrictions and charging infrastructure, EREVs offer automakers financial relief and cater to consumer needs.

Car Rentals and Electric Cars are filing for Divorce, for now...

Startupology • 19 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💼 Business Transportation Financials Consumer behavior Sustainability Market Analysis
  1. Rental car companies and EVs face challenges like high repair costs and poor infrastructure.
  2. Hertz faced bankruptcy, then aimed to boost business with an EV fleet but is now selling off a third of it due to low demand and high repair costs.
  3. Issues with rental companies and EVs include maintenance costs, customer education, charging infrastructure, and consumer familiarity.

Why won't they give us the resources?

Sunday Letters • 159 implied HN points • 12 Jun 22
💼 Business Management Finance Strategy Product Development Market Analysis
  1. Deciding when to invest in new projects is tricky for companies because they need to balance costs and benefits. Too much spending too quickly can lead to financial problems.
  2. Finance teams focus on overall company health, like cash flow and profit margins. If a new project risks the company's profitability, they might hesitate to fund it.
  3. To get funding for new ideas, it's helpful to understand the financial risks and show how the project can improve profit margins. Developing strategies to lower risks can increase chances of approval.

More Vertical Fintech, Please

Equal Ventures • 39 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
💼 Business Fintech Market Analysis Investments Business Models
  1. Combining vertical software with fintech can create powerful business opportunities, leveraging market nuances to enhance efficiencies and insights.
  2. It's challenging to build defensible financial services independently, but merging them with workflow software can increase market size and potential revenue streams.
  3. Markets with low digital penetration offer ripe opportunities for vertical SaaS and fintech integration, attracting investments across various sectors for this innovative approach.

50Y Progress Index

Fifty Years News • 49 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
💼 Business Startups Investment Technology Opportunities Market Analysis
  1. Our lives today are significantly better thanks to technological progress in various fields like energy, materials, and communication.
  2. A lot of startup innovation is focused on a few small areas, leading to missed opportunities for significant advancements.
  3. Identifying underfunded markets with huge potential for disruption could lead to substantial growth opportunities for entrepreneurs.

[P] HSY: Kiss-and-Tell Governance

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💼 Business Finance Mergers Investing Governance Market Analysis
  1. Hershey is showing signs of potential mergers and acquisitions. This might mean they are looking to grow through buying other companies.
  2. The governance style at Hershey focuses on transparency and communication. This can help build trust with investors and stakeholders.
  3. Investors should pay attention to any signals from Hershey about their future plans. These signals can give clues about the company's direction and strategy.

Russia in Ukraine: Let Loose the Dogs of War!

Musings on Markets • 179 implied HN points • 19 Mar 22
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Impact Risk Assessment
  1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a lot of instability in financial markets, affecting bond and equity prices. Many investors are worried about defaults and have pulled back from investing.
  2. Commodity prices, especially oil and gas, have surged due to the ongoing conflict, further impacting inflation expectations. This rise in prices can strain economies globally.
  3. Consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with people feeling more uncertain about the economy. If consumers spend less, it could lead to slower economic growth in the US and Europe.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Market Mortgage Rates
  1. The closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed when mortgage rates were lower than in the previous months. This signifies a trend of lower mortgage rates impacting sales.
  2. Active inventory in February showed mixed trends with some areas experiencing significant year-over-year increases in inventory while others saw decreases compared to 2019.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still remained at historically low levels. Most areas reported lower new listings compared to January 2019.

More on the Fed and Long-Term Interest Rates

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates Federal Reserve Market Analysis
  1. The Fed's impact on interest rates may not be as significant as perceived, with most rate changes occurring outside of Fed meetings.
  2. Changes in long-term interest rates are likely not correlated with new information from Fed meetings.
  3. Interest rate changes during Fed meetings appear independent of changes outside of meetings, indicating that market expectations are already adjusted before meetings.

#2 How I Select Which Ideas to Build: A Personal Approach

Nittarab’s Substack • 1 HN point • 19 Aug 24
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Startups Market Analysis Product Development Idea Generation
  1. Sharing your idea with others is key to getting feedback and refining your concept. The more you talk about it, the clearer it becomes.
  2. It's important to choose ideas that fit your interests and skills. If you're not passionate about the topic or understand the audience, it's better to pass on it.
  3. Evaluate the market and your competition carefully. Knowing how big the market is and who else is out there can help you understand if your idea has a chance to succeed.

The Trillion Dollar Question

Venture Prose • 259 implied HN points • 04 Feb 21
💼 Business Venture Capital Market Analysis Technology Companies Revenue Generation Value Creation
  1. Demand can only be served if there is supply. Market issues arise when the supply can't meet the artificial demand.
  2. Venture capital-backed companies in the US needed around $3 trillion in capital to sustain growth, questioning the sustainability of valuations and cash requirements in the tech industry.
  3. The rapid growth of non-profitable tech companies raises concerns about whether the market can support the increasing cash requirements, potentially indicating an unsustainable pace.

Let Bitcoin Cook

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Cryptocurrency Market Analysis Financial advice Economics
  1. Let Bitcoin cook - Allow Bitcoin to develop without unnecessary interruption, like letting someone keep working when they're on a roll.
  2. Celebrate modestly - Acknowledge success with humility and prepare for potential challenges; avoid excessive bragging or taunting.
  3. Encourage organic interest - Rather than forcing ideas, allow individuals to discover and understand Bitcoin naturally to build genuine, long-term adoption.

A pullback in the S&P 500 has likely not finished yet

Global Markets Investor • 19 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stock Markets Investing Economy Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 pullback is likely not over yet, with factors like Apple stock's decline and bond yields indicating further decreases.
  2. US bond yields, the US dollar, and the Fear & Greed index suggest that the S&P 500 decline may continue.
  3. Indicators like the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages and the VIX levels point towards a possible S&P 500 decline still in progress.

Fees matter, frequent fees matter more

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Fees Performance Fund management
  1. Fees are important for investors. Higher fees usually lead to lower investment returns.
  2. Frequent fees can hurt your investment more than higher overall fees. If fees are deducted often, your money has less chance to grow.
  3. Understanding how performance fees work is key. Different structures, like high-water marks or hurdle rates, can affect your overall returns significantly.

Why are homebuilder rate buydowns effective?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Market prices aren't changing due to temporary factors, leading builders to use rate buydowns instead.
  2. Builders are using rate buydowns to close the gap between mortgage rates and other interest rates in the current market.
  3. The unique market conditions make rate buydowns a strategic tool for builders, influencing the mortgage market stability.

The Adani Group vs Hindenburg Research[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 39 implied HN points • 04 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Social media influence Personal Finance
  1. Tech finance is currently volatile with companies facing investigations, layoffs, policy changes, and financial struggles.
  2. Hindenburg Research published a critical report on Adani Group, accusing them of a massive fraud scheme, sparking a heated discussion.
  3. The situation highlights the importance of critical analysis, especially on social media, and serves as a reminder to stay vigilant about personal finances and job security.