The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Top Links 817 GM eats Trump's tariffs. Traders rule. Who will buy, Indonesia's "Kangaroo" bond? And, “goods beyond earth”.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 02 Aug 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investments Economic Policy Global Economy Stock Market
  1. GM is adapting to tariffs set by Trump, showing how big companies adjust to government changes. It's interesting to see how this affects their business strategies.
  2. There's a lot of focus on big traders and who might invest in unique options like Indonesia's 'Kangaroo' bond, which highlights the variety of investment opportunities out there.
  3. The US stock market is heavily influenced by a small number of large tech companies, while local economic signs tell a different story, reminding us that not everything is as it seems.
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DeFi Education's Holiday Book List 2023

DeFi Education • 739 implied HN points • 05 Dec 23
💰 Finance Investing Book Reviews Market Analysis Economic Theory Personal Finance
  1. The holiday season is a great time for reading, and the recommended books cater to different interests for personal growth.
  2. Books like 'The Alchemy of Finance' and 'Undermoney' offer unique insights into finance and investing, influenced by real experiences and theories.
  3. Many of the books are available for free online, making it easy for anyone to dive into these enriching materials.

Problems in Chinatown (Part 2)

The Bear Cave • 396 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
💰 Finance Stock Market Regulation Market Trends Trading Strategies
  1. There are many scams involving U.S.-listed Chinese stocks that trick investors into losing money. Scammers create fake stories about companies being bought to manipulate stock prices.
  2. Once trust is built through past recommendations of good stocks, scammers introduce cheap stocks with fake promises of huge profits. When they're ready, they sell off their shares, causing the stock to crash.
  3. To help fight these scams, a new website is being launched that lets people share information about these frauds, aiming to expose them and help regulators track the perpetrators.

Hong Kong's death has been exaggerated

Asian Century Stocks • 471 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Economy Markets Taxation Companies
  1. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong is currently negative, but the perception of the city changing or dying may be misplaced due to its advantages like low taxes, currency stability, and efficient infrastructure.
  2. Despite economic struggles in China, Hong Kong's economy is recovering with tourist returns, retail sales growth, and positive net migration, with potential for lower interest rates in the future.
  3. Hong Kong remains vital in Asia, benefiting from low taxes, reliable legal system, and financial hub status, even amidst challenges like interest rate impact and risks from geopolitics and National Security Law.

World Yields are Inverting: Why it Matters

The Informationist • 982 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Yield curve inversions can predict recessions, with the US and other G7 countries experiencing this phenomenon.
  2. G7 Treasury yields show inversion trends, indicating economic slowdowns and potential recessions in various countries.
  3. Italy and Japan have unique yield curve situations, with issues like high risk premiums for Italy and Japan's unique economic conditions.

Top Links 826 How markets learned to love the trade war. How fiscal policy loses its discretionary scope & the global peanut butter rankings.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
💰 Finance Markets Trade Fiscal policy Economic Trends
  1. Markets are adjusting to trade wars, often responding differently than expected. This means they may not react with fear or panic as they once did.
  2. Fiscal policy is becoming less flexible, which might impact how governments can respond to economic issues. This change can limit their ability to take quick actions.
  3. Interestingly, there’s a discussion comparing global peanut butter rankings. It shows how even simple items can spark interesting debates about economies.

Are TIPS and I-Bonds Good Investments?

The Informationist • 963 implied HN points • 28 May 23
💰 Finance Investments Bonds Inflation Government Assets
  1. TIPS are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities that protect investors from inflation by adjusting principal based on changes in CPI.
  2. I-Bonds are similar to TIPS in protecting from inflation, but have fixed rates and are not tradable in the secondary market.
  3. Both TIPS and I-Bonds are highly dependent on CPI for pricing and may not offer positive real rates of return in the real world.

On investment firms, brand & reputation

Buggy Humans in a Messy World • 963 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investment Reputation Communication Performance
  1. Investment firms may not have a brand, but they do have a reputation which is crucial in a commoditized business.
  2. An investment firm's reputation is determined by how well they behave and how they invest.
  3. Good behavior includes walking away from excessive fees and communicating honestly, while good investments involve associating with reputable businesses.

Our Liquidity Addiction Continues

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 21 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banking Banking Sovereign debt Fixed income Currencies Asset allocation
  1. The Fed has begun a modest, ongoing balance-sheet expansion—buying short-dated Treasuries to keep banks flush with reserves and control short-term rates—which is a "gradual print" that should be mildly supportive for asset prices and mildly dollar-negative.
  2. Severe shocks like a recession, a large-scale financial or kinetic conflict, or sudden foreign sell-offs could force much larger, faster Fed purchases measured in the trillions, while a change in Fed leadership might try to shrink the balance sheet but would only have limited, mostly technical effects.
  3. Japan’s rising bond yields are a real risk but not an immediate systemic collapse: the BOJ owns a large share of the debt and Japan has big FX reserves and a current-account surplus, so policymakers have tools (yield-curve control, reserve sales) to manage it; investors should favor high-quality, scarce assets and rebalance away from overheated areas.

Fear Not

The Better Letter • 511 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Personal Finance Economics
  1. Fear sells and makes money, driving many market predictions based on fear.
  2. Investors face fear daily, driven by narratives over data, making them susceptible to fear-mongering.
  3. Long-term investment is crucial; while fear may lead to short-term moves, the market trends upwards over time, favoring investment.

The debt explosion: How neoliberalism fuels debt crises

Geopolitical Economy Report • 558 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Debt Neoliberalism Economy Commercial Real Estate Banking
  1. Debt has surged globally due to neoliberal economics, leading to countless crises.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions focus on bailing out the financial sector, even when it doesn't benefit the economy at large.
  3. The US economy is heavily dominated by finance, insurance, real estate, military, pharma, and tech sectors, all characterized by high levels of monopoly and rent-seeking behaviors.

China, India, and the Contested Politics of Payments

Pekingnology • 86 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
💰 Finance Payments Regulation Infrastructure Platforms Competition Sovereignty
  1. Both China and India ended up with de facto duopolies in digital payments even though China’s system grew from private super‑apps and India’s was built as public rails.
  2. China’s big platforms were gradually publicized by regulators—through measures like forcing custodial central‑bank accounts and routing transactions via a state clearinghouse—which increased state control without dismantling platform dominance.
  3. India’s UPI created open, interoperable rails that invited many private apps, but zero transaction fees let Google Pay and PhonePe capture most volume; both countries now face hard trade‑offs between competition and inclusion, speed and fraud, and domestic control versus cross‑border interoperability.

"The End Of The Monetary Road": Larry Lepard On Gold, Silver & Bitcoin

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing Markets Macro Monetary Policy Commodities Cryptocurrency Asset allocation
  1. The global monetary system looks like it's nearing a major breaking point, with charts pointing to a secular change and rising monetary chaos.
  2. Gold and silver have already made stratospheric moves, and investors who positioned early saw huge gains (one fund reported about 170% in 2025).
  3. These market signals are getting little mainstream attention but deserve close watching into 2026, especially for precious metals and Bitcoin as potential hedges.

The Monetary Event Horizon

The Dollar Endgame • 938 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Economy Government Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. national debt is skyrocketing due to increased government spending, tax cuts, and economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a staggering $32.47 trillion in debt and a rapid increase of over $1 trillion in just 34 days.
  2. As the U.S. debt continues to grow, the country is possibly entering a debt spiral where borrowing becomes necessary to fulfill existing financial obligations, potentially leading to an annual interest payment of $1.6 trillion at a 5% rate and putting the nation at risk of financial instability.
  3. Rising interest rates and debt levels could push the U.S. Treasury towards insolvency, with potential consequences including inflation and the need for severe fiscal austerity measures to mitigate the crisis, a situation further complicated by complex economic feedback loops.

Top Links 795 How global bond markets closed for low-income borrowers and then reopened. Selling ICE fossils to Russia. China's AI competition & One Art.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
💰 Finance Markets Debt Investment Economics International
  1. Global bond markets have shifted, closing previously to low-income borrowers, but they have now opened up again. This change can affect how governments of poorer countries manage their debt.
  2. The topic of selling fossil fuels to Russia is being discussed, highlighting the complexities of international trade and its implications on climate change.
  3. China's competition in AI is growing, showing how important technology is in today's world economy and how it can impact various sectors.

Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 71 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Mortgages Real Estate Lending Credit Risk Banking
  1. Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saw single-family serious delinquency rates rise to about 0.58% in November, a small month-over-month and year-over-year increase but still below pre-pandemic highs.
  2. Delinquency is concentrated in older loan vintages: Fannie’s 2004-and-earlier and 2005–2008 loans have much higher serious delinquency rates, while loans from 2009–2025 show very low delinquency.
  3. Fannie Mae’s multi-family delinquency rate has climbed to its highest level since the housing bust (excluding the pandemic), signaling rising stress in the multi-family sector.

Simple Portfolios

Market Sentiment • 923 implied HN points • 16 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investing Portfolios Diversification Assets Funds
  1. Steve Edmundson's successful investment strategy was to do as little as possible, keeping costs low and not trying to beat the market.
  2. Investing doesn't have to be complicated - simple portfolios like the 60/40, Cockroach, and 3-Fund portfolios can be the foundation for long-term success.
  3. Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio aims to perform well over time without predictions, with an asset allocation of 55% bonds, 30% stocks, and 15% commodities.

Downside at NVIDIA (and the Nasdaq at large)

Philoinvestor • 491 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Valuation Semiconductors Artificial Intelligence
  1. NVIDIA's stock price increased significantly faster than its earnings, raising questions about its valuation.
  2. The launch of Chat GPT led to a surge in demand for GPUs and an uptick in NVIDIA's stock.
  3. Microsoft's $10 billion investment in Open AI and the AI hype train are contributing factors to the current market dynamics.

Data Update 4 for 2024: Risk enters the Equation

Musings on Markets • 479 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Risk Analysis Investment Strategies Market Trends Corporate Finance Economic Factors
  1. Risk is not just a bad thing; it's a mix of danger and opportunity. To succeed, you sometimes need to embrace the right risks instead of avoiding them.
  2. Different types of risks exist, like economic and estimation uncertainties. It's important to identify and categorize them to make better investment decisions.
  3. Risks can vary significantly between companies and countries. Understanding these differences can help investors assess potential returns and make smarter choices.

Mantic Monday 5/22/23

Astral Codex Ten • 5919 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💰 Finance Prediction Markets Debt Ceiling Bitcoin Financial Decisions
  1. A play money prediction market turned serious when whales v. minnows gambling escalated, resulting in heavy financial losses, leading to ethical challenges.
  2. Congress is facing the decision of raising the debt ceiling, which if not resolved, could lead to severe economic consequences.
  3. Research shows that experts fare better than algorithms and non-experts in long-term geopolitical forecasting, raising questions about the accuracy and possibilities of such predictions.

In Wake of ETF Approval, Bitcoin Worldwide Matures

Bitcoin Magazine Pro • 511 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Government Regulation Digital Assets Economic Impact International relations
  1. Bitcoin's worldwide acceptance is growing post ETF approval in the US.
  2. Countries are reevaluating their digital asset policies in response to Bitcoin's rise.
  3. Bitcoin is influencing global economic and political decisions, especially in countries like El Salvador, Argentina, India, and China.

Investing Update: Who's Selling? You Need To Know

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 07 Feb 26
💰 Finance Markets Stocks ETFs Commodities Crypto Macro
  1. The market is deeply split: the Dow hit a record 50,000 and the equal-weight S&P made a new high while the Nasdaq and software stocks plunged.
  2. Capital is rotating out of mega-cap tech, AI names, and crypto into value and cyclicals — energy, materials, industrials, emerging markets, and small caps are leading.
  3. Breadth is expanding and ETF flows suggest a regime shift, and historically that kind of rotation (not just distribution) has preceded further gains over the next 6–12 months.

Top Links 799 Slum Song. The markets reward Israel. Scattered Spiders are coming for your groceries and living in the first century of world wars.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 14 Jul 25
💰 Finance Markets Economics Investments Currency Global Trade
  1. Israel's markets are doing really well after their recent conflict, with their currency and investments leading globally. It's a noticeable shift from their situation before the conflict.
  2. The ideas of living in a troubled world today are compared to the challenges of the first world wars, reflecting ongoing global issues.
  3. There is a mention of businesses, like grocery stores, facing unique challenges which may suggest a shift in consumer behavior or economic conditions.

Genesis Wins Court Ruling to Sell Tranche of GBTC Shares

Bitcoin Magazine Pro • 432 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Legal Market Investment Debt
  1. Genesis won a court ruling to sell millions of GBTC shares, aiming to reimburse creditors and stabilize Bitcoin's price.
  2. A large sale of GBTC triggered a market decline for both GBTC and Bitcoin in the past, causing concerns within the Bitcoin community.
  3. Despite legal disputes and setbacks, Genesis is moving forward with plans to sell GBTC to settle debts, potentially impacting Bitcoin's valuation.

The Financial Sector

In My Tribe • 425 implied HN points • 15 Jul 25
💰 Finance Banking Investment Economic Policy Financial Crisis
  1. Usury, or charging interest, has been historically frowned upon, especially when lending to those in need. Nowadays, people often borrow for various reasons, making this taboo less relevant.
  2. Banks play a crucial role by offering services like checking accounts and loans, balancing risky long-term loans with immediate access to funds for customers. They use strategies like diversification and relationships to manage these risks.
  3. The relationship between banks and government is vital for stability. Trust in both can lead to a healthy economy, while a lack of confidence can cause financial crises, as seen in events like the 2008 financial crash.