The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Data Update 3 for 2024: A Rule-breaking Year for Interest Rates

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Bond Markets Corporate Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Interest rates in 2023 showed little change, challenging the idea that the Fed is solely responsible for their movements. It's more about market dynamics and inflation.
  2. An inverted yield curve has traditionally been seen as a warning sign for recessions, but recent events in 2023 suggest it isn't always accurate. The economy remained stable despite the inversion.
  3. Looking forward, inflation will play a key role in determining interest rates in 2024. If inflation continues to drop, long-term rates might go down too.

Cigna Healthcare said it will buy back $11.3 billion of its own shares of stock. That announcement made the company's CEO and other investors much richer.

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 759 implied HN points • 18 Dec 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Corporate Finance Investment Regulation
  1. Cigna Healthcare plans to buy back $11.3 billion of its own stock, making its CEO and investors much wealthier. This move increased the stock price significantly in just one day.
  2. The amount Cigna is spending on stock buybacks is more than many states' entire Medicaid budgets for the year, raising concerns about the priorities of the healthcare system.
  3. Some members of Congress are upset about Cigna's decision, stating it shows how large insurance companies focus on profits instead of improving healthcare for their customers.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

On Track

Invariant • 609 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Analysis Markets Value
  1. Analyzing investments should involve a holistic reflection and critical thinking.
  2. Consider the importance of probability and odds in decision-making.
  3. Recognize that in financial markets, competition influences opportunity and the importance of value over price.

If I Had To Buy 4 Stocks Monday Morning...

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Portfolio Markets Asset allocation Risk management
  1. A curated 26-stock portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by about 5% on an equal-weighted basis, which suggests the selection process is working.
  2. If forced to buy only four stocks, the approach would be three familiar names plus one new small position added recently.
  3. The four picks are chosen across different risk profiles and narratives to blend pessimism, durability, and long-term optionality.

The Bank of Japan July Surprise

The Informationist • 1100 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
💰 Finance Market Dynamics Central Banks Bond Market Interest Rates Investments
  1. The Bank of Japan recently made an announcement that caused the USD and Japanese bond yields to shift.
  2. The implications of the Bank of Japan's actions have affected US Treasuries and could lead to the US Treasury issuing more debt.
  3. Investors are advised to strategically manage portfolios due to potential market shifts and economic uncertainties.

Warner Bros.: How 5 Mental Models Turned Lonely Conviction into a Big Win

Behavioral Value Investor • 104 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing Value investing M&A Options Behavioral Finance Portfolio Management Valuation
  1. Use several mental models together instead of relying on intrinsic value alone. When ideas like "good business vs bad business," potential vs kinetic energy, and auction dynamics line up, they can reveal big opportunities.
  2. Focus on unique assets and how they can be better monetized or separated from weak parts of the business. Actions like spin-offs, stronger IP monetization, or strategic interest from acquirers can turn hidden value into real gains.
  3. Use long-dated options selectively and size positions to get asymmetric payoffs while managing time risk. Also keep in mind that competitive auctions or strategic bidders can push prices far above standalone intrinsic value, so lock in gains when it makes sense.

The Great Rebalancing

Concoda • 513 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Market Analysis Monetary Policy Securities
  1. The U.S. Treasury is focusing on making the bond market stable instead of pushing political goals. This means they might hold back on issuing long-term debt for a while.
  2. Many global investors are interested in buying short-term U.S. debt, which is seen as safer. The demand is so high that the U.S. Federal Reserve may start purchasing more to keep the market in balance.
  3. There are ongoing changes in how the Federal Reserve manages its assets, which could affect interest rates and availability of cash in the banking system.

Regional Banking Fear Is Back & Correlations Are Destroyed: TBL Weekly #79

The Bitcoin Layer • 550 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Banking Economy Bitcoin ETFs Market Analysis
  1. Regional banking sector is facing fear and challenges with toxic assets and credit exposure.
  2. US commercial banks are experiencing a credit problem due to underperforming commercial real estate.
  3. Market participants are struggling with shattered historical correlations and uncertainty regarding the Fed's reaction function.

Banks banks banks (redux)

Yet Another Value Blog • 1022 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
💰 Finance Banking Investing Economics Markets Earnings
  1. If you're looking at banks below tangible book value, you don't need to worry much about hidden disasters on their balance sheets.
  2. Even though there are concerns like a potential commercial real estate crisis or a recession, banks seem well-prepared and overcapitalized.
  3. Rising interest rates could actually make banks more profitable due to their interest rate sensitivity.

The Case For A 30% Market Crash

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
💰 Finance Markets Investing Macroeconomics Monetary Policy Equities Valuation Risk
  1. Markets are extremely overvalued and both stocks and bonds are heavily over-owned, making prices fragile and prone to a large correction.
  2. Weak consumer demand, speculative AI capex, rising tariffs, and a Fed tolerant of higher inflation together threaten profit margins and could force P/E multiples significantly lower.
  3. If multiples revert to more normal levels (around 17x), the S&P could drop over 30% even without an earnings decline, and a falling 'E' would make the crash much worse.

"Chaos" Is Coming In 2026, Says Gold Guru Who Returned 174% In 2025

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 38 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets Investing Commodities Monetary Policy Central Banks Macro Equities
  1. Gold and silver rallied sharply in 2025, and precious metals miners massively outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq as investors rotated away from frothy tech stocks toward hard assets.
  2. Silver experienced a real supply shortage and heavy delivery demand in the paper futures market, highlighting a tight physical market that pushed prices higher.
  3. The Federal Reserve resumed big balance-sheet expansion in December 2025, renewing liquidity and debt concerns that are boosting demand for gold and could lead to market turbulence in 2026.

Serial Acquirers, The Art of Not Selling, and Chuck Akre's Masterclass

Investment Talk • 569 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Mergers & Acquisitions Capital allocation
  1. The post discusses the experience of heading to the USA for the first time and shares insights on a small cap company in the UK.
  2. An in-depth study on serial acquirers highlights the importance of CEOs with strong capital allocation skills.
  3. The paper 'The Art of Not Selling' by Chris Cerrone emphasizes the importance of patient and strategic investing decisions over succumbing to external pressures.

How Will Financial Scams Affect Big Business in 2025?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 1326 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Scams Economics Market Trends Financial Technology
  1. Financial scams are expected to impact big businesses in various ways by 2025. Companies will need to be more aware of these risks.
  2. There will be discussions on how different sectors, like private equity and tech, handle these scams. These sectors are likely to face unique challenges.
  3. A virtual summit is happening where experts will talk about these trends and share insights. It's a chance for everyone to learn and ask questions.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 29 Jul 24
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stocks Cryptocurrency
  1. Tech stocks have faced some tough times lately, with a drop in the NASDAQ 100. Investors are cautious and waiting to see how major companies perform in their earnings reports.
  2. During election years, financial and tech stocks typically do well, showing good returns. This trend is backed by past market behaviors where these sectors get investor attention.
  3. Investing in copper appears shaky right now due to issues in China’s property market, but experts still believe in its long-term potential, especially linked to renewable energy needs.

22nd Century Group: Answering the Wrong Question

Invariant • 609 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Regulation Companies Market Analysis
  1. 22nd Century Group focused on developing low-nicotine cigarettes but didn't consider if consumers wanted the product.
  2. The company struggled with profitability and faced challenges even after receiving authorization for their products.
  3. Shifting focus to a different product with conventional nicotine levels came too late for the company to recover.

Everyone’s Selling Software. Should You Be Buying?

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💰 Finance Markets Equities Investing Technology Stocks Valuation
  1. Software is going through a real-time business-model repricing: companies can beat estimates and still get heavily sold.
  2. The sell-off is broad and severe. Major names plunged and many stocks are down 20–40% or more, marking the worst week since 2008 for the group.
  3. The sector is at its most oversold level since 2018, with about 73% of software stocks classified as oversold—the highest level on record.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 179 implied HN points • 26 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Economic Analysis Corporate Finance
  1. Companies with high profit margins are doing really well. For example, Nvidia has a gross profit margin of 78%, which is impressive compared to others like Amazon and Apple.
  2. There are good opportunities in the bond market now. After a long time, stocks aren't the only option for investors looking for decent returns.
  3. Amazon is expected to overtake Walmart in sales next year. With Amazon's growth in cloud services, it's on track for $711 billion in revenue, compared to Walmart's $703 billion.

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Postscript 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing policy Mortgages Affordability Construction Urban Economics
  1. A nationwide scarcity premium—people paying extra for limited location/lots rather than for actual housing—explains almost all of the elevated home prices and rents, especially in constrained metro areas. It will only fade as supply rises or closed-access cities reform, otherwise it could persist for decades.
  2. Tighter mortgage access since 2008 raised effective rents and shifted value away from ownership of structures toward land/scarcity, hitting lower-income neighborhoods hardest and increasing gross rental yields. This change also reduced who can buy and altered the kinds of homes that get built.
  3. A rapid correction of the scarcity premium requires a big building boom and a return toward earlier lending norms, which could cut the adjustment to 10–15 years; blocking construction or restricting investors will stretch the correction out over many decades.

What Is A Stock Split and What Causes It?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 239 implied HN points • 02 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Markets Corporate Actions Financial Education Market Trends
  1. A stock split means one expensive share is split into multiple cheaper shares, which keeps the total value the same. It makes shares more affordable for buyers, but existing shareholders get more shares automatically.
  2. Companies often do stock splits to appeal to smaller investors when prices get too high. Lower prices can boost demand because people see it as a better deal, even though the company's overall value doesn't change.
  3. A reverse stock split combines shares to increase their price and can be seen negatively by investors. It often suggests a company is struggling, as they might be trying to inflate prices without real improvements.

❄️ ⚡️ Tesla et Chine, le bon moment pour investir ?

Snowball • 550 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investment Stocks Economy Cryptocurrency Personal Finance
  1. Tesla stock has dropped significantly, raising questions for long-term investors.
  2. The Chinese government aims to regain investor trust in their financial markets after a significant drop in the CSI 300 index.
  3. Generative AI is disrupting the entertainment industry, potentially leading to more immersive storytelling experiences.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
💰 Finance Mortgages Housing Market Foreclosures Credit Risk Lending Interest Rates Consumer Debt
  1. Mortgage delinquencies rose in the fourth quarter of 2025 to a 4.26% rate, up about 27 basis points from the prior quarter and roughly 28 basis points year‑over‑year, while foreclosure starts held at 0.20%.
  2. Delinquencies increased across conventional, FHA, and VA loans, with FHA showing the biggest deterioration — about 11.52% delinquent and a notable jump in 90+ day delinquencies and foreclosure inventory.
  3. The rise appears linked to the expiration of pandemic-era FHA relief and uneven labor market conditions, and newer loan cohorts (2022–23) are struggling more than 2020–21 vintages, though improving FHA originations and moderating rates could help ease stress.

GDP: Six Years of Zero Growth

Japan Economy Watch • 199 implied HN points • 16 May 24
💰 Finance Economy Government spending Interest Rates
  1. Japanese GDP has experienced zero growth in the past six years, with household consumption and business investment showing no positive change.
  2. Government spending hikes have prevented a worse decline in GDP, increasing by 8% from 2018.
  3. Despite a significant depreciation of the yen, exports have only increased by 4% over six years, indicating modest growth.

Top Links 824 Ukrainian bonds. Talking about currencies. Rebuilding The Kingdom & The Men of 1924.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 09 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investments Bonds Economics Currency Debt
  1. Ukrainian bonds are gaining value, rising from 62 to 67 cents on the dollar recently. This shows that investors are hopeful about peace and economic recovery in Ukraine.
  2. Discussing currencies can help people understand how money works and influences the economy. Learning about different currencies is important for making informed financial decisions.
  3. Rebuilding efforts and historical perspectives can shape how a country develops. Looking back at events like those in 1924 can provide insights into current challenges and opportunities.

Don’t Panic About A Yen “Free Fall”

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Currency Economy Trade Intervention Exports
  1. The danger is not a sudden financial crisis, but rather slow erosion of Japan's economic competitiveness and living standards.
  2. The yen's recent fluctuations do not indicate a free fall, but rather show volatility in the currency market.
  3. Japan has the resources to prevent a currency free fall and stabilize the yen value through interventions and its international assets.

Breaking Burry

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 163 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investing Economic Policy Risk management Hedge Funds
  1. Short sellers like Michael Burry often see problems in the market before others do, but current market conditions are making it hard for them to profit.
  2. The market has become distorted due to excessive liquidity, which is making poor companies appear successful and keeping bad investments afloat.
  3. Burry's decision to step back from managing his fund signals awareness of these distortions, as he believes that the fundamentals will eventually matter again when the market returns to reality.

Ideastorm #10

Market Sentiment • 569 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Brands Politics Mutual Funds
  1. Investing in companies with many trademarks relative to their valuation has consistently outperformed the market for 50 years.
  2. Political leanings of fund managers influence their investment decisions during presidential elections.
  3. Consider risk-adjusted returns, like the Sharpe ratio, when evaluating market-beating portfolios like Motley Fool's.

"The Dollar Is Fine," Says Everyone Watching It Burn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 50 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
💰 Finance Global Markets Reserve Currency Central Banks Commodities Sovereign debt Foreign Exchange
  1. The world is moving away from the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries as the unquestioned anchor, with countries rebuilding payment systems and settling more trade in local currencies.
  2. China is buying vast amounts of Russian gold — likely far more than official reports show — using bullion as a bridge asset to shrink dollar exposure and guard against sanctions risk.
  3. Meanwhile, U.S. markets are focused on tech and AI-driven valuations that look fragile, even as foreign governments quietly dump Treasuries, a mix that could erode confidence in the dollar and U.S. financial leadership.

QE is Coming

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Markets Bitcoin Gold Inflation Central Bank
  1. Markets are anticipating increased liquidity injections from the Fed, with assets like Gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs even before the easing cycle starts.
  2. The surge in Bitcoin's value is attributed to significant inflows from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a historic rally compared to gold ETFs.
  3. The financial markets are preparing for a potential Fed intervention, likely in response to the rising net liquidity despite the seeming balance sheet reductions.

The Dam Has Burst In Silver And Gold - Now What?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 51 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets Commodities Investing Monetary Policy Macro Trading
  1. Silver and gold have surged sharply — silver is up about 6% and trading near $91 an ounce, signaling a major breakout in precious metals.
  2. This move looks like a "blow-off valve" for excess money printing. Precious metals are absorbing the inflationary pressure that monetary expansion creates.
  3. Whether this is a short squeeze or a blow-off top is less important than the practical choice investors face about taking profits, and there are signs the run-up may not be over.

Top Links 830 US mega caps. Semiconductor investment boom. Shock city. Stalin - warrior of the year.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 15 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Stock Analysis Corporate Earnings
  1. The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are really powerful, making up a huge part of the overall profits. It shows how important certain sectors like tech and finance are to the market.
  2. There's a big surge in investments in semiconductors, which are key for technology. This boom could have a major impact on the economy and innovation.
  3. Articles and discussions about major historical figures like Stalin highlight different perspectives on leadership and conflict. Understanding history helps us make sense of current events.