The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Chinese Hydropower - Large and Underappreciated

Syncretica • 648 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
💰 Finance Energy Forecasting Economics
  1. China has the largest hydropower sector globally, with a significant impact on power generation worldwide.
  2. Hydropower output is heavily influenced by weather conditions, with recent rainfall improvements expected to boost Chinese hydropower production.
  3. The strong growth in Chinese hydropower output is likely to lead to a decrease in fossil fuel imports and a reduction in thermal power generation.

Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Risk Assessment Financial Data
  1. Interest rates are rising, affecting both stocks and bonds. This change can make it harder for investors to predict market movements.
  2. Only a few big tech companies are driving market gains, which shows the performance isn't shared evenly across all stocks. If you didn’t invest in those top companies, your returns might not be great.
  3. There are still uncertainties about inflation and the economy, making it hard to predict what will happen next. Investors continue to swing between hope and worry.

BOJ Finally Pulls the Trigger on Rate Policy, But It’s a Low-Caliber Gun

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 20 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economic Forecast Currency Exchange
  1. BOJ's interest rate policy tweak is more about changing the mechanism to keep rates low, gradually raising overnight rates from negative to low positive percentages over time.
  2. Ending Yield Curve Control means BOJ stops directly controlling long-term rates but still aims to keep them low by continuing to buy the same amount of long-term bonds.
  3. BOJ remains focused on low inflation and plans to raise interest rates if it rises too high, but for now, it sees current inflation as temporary due to global factors.
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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Economic Indicators Sales Data Market Analysis
  1. November home sales are expected to show a slight increase compared to October, with forecasts at 3.97 million annually. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. This marks the second year-over-year gain in home sales since July 2021, indicating a potential recovery in the market.
  3. The data will be released by the NAR on December 19th, offering insight into how the housing market is currently performing.

💥💥 Two takes on America’s emerging (maybe) productivity boom

Faster, Please! • 822 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics AI Policy Clean Energy
  1. There are signs of a significant economic transformation with productivity growth outpacing historical averages.
  2. The American economy may be experiencing a new productivity boom, setting it apart from other advanced economies.
  3. The recent productivity upshift is likely a response to a tight hiring environment, prompting firms to boost efficiency and automation.

Capture price of imports/exports in Germany

GEM Energy Analytics • 719 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
💰 Finance Energy Market Renewable Energy
  1. Germany often exports electricity during winter and imports more in summer. This pattern is changing due to the retirement of nuclear power and other factors.
  2. The prices for exported electricity are usually low because they happen when there’s lots of renewable energy like wind or solar, which can lead to negative prices.
  3. As renewable energy grows, Germany is importing electricity when prices are high, while exporting when prices are low. This is making it hard to measure the value of electricity trades in traditional ways.

Major Signals are flashing Code Red in the Shadow Banking System

The Dollar Endgame • 718 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Investments Regulation Economy Markets
  1. The reverse repo figures reaching $2 trillion signal a serious issue in the market, showing strains on the entire banking system from massive liquidity injections.
  2. Reverse repos in the shadow banking system allow entities like MMFs to act like banks but without the same regulations, functioning in an opaque, complex, and risky world.
  3. The increased usage of the Fed's RRP facility and rising award rates indicate collateral shortages within the system, leading to concerns about the stability of MMFs and potential risks in the financial system.

Michael Hudson: Why the US bank crisis is not over

Geopolitical Economy Report • 717 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates
  1. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and banks can hold onto securities without marking down their assets, showing the decline only during a run on the bank.
  2. Depositors withdrew money as banks acted greedily, paying low deposit rates while making high profits, causing a shift towards more fair market returns elsewhere.
  3. The US bank crisis involves a mix of deregulatory corruption, political influence, and economic imbalance in the face of financial claims surpassing economic ability to pay.

3 Ways out of our "Fiscal Death Spiral."

cryptoeconomy • 707 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Taxation Government spending Economy
  1. There are 3 ways to escape the fiscal crisis: reduce spending, raise taxes heavily, or resort to printing more money.
  2. The increasing debt and interest payments are approaching unsustainable levels, potentially leading to historic inflation rates.
  3. Regardless of the chosen path, the final destination seems to be inflation as the most likely outcome of the fiscal crisis.

💰 Stock-Based Compensation Explained

How They Make Money • 707 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Compensation Performance Metrics
  1. Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) is a remuneration strategy where companies reward employees with equity interests.
  2. SBC affects investors through ownership dilution, alignment of interests, and impact on company performance.
  3. There are different types of SBC such as stock options, restricted stock units, and performance shares, each with unique characteristics and implications.

Germany Surpasses Japan At #3 Nominal GDP Spot

Japan Economy Watch • 319 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy GDP Currency Population Competitiveness
  1. The reversal of rank in GDP between Germany and Japan is largely due to currency fluctuations, rather than significant changes in real GDP, population, or workforce size.
  2. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) offers a more accurate comparison of economic power by adjusting for currency exchange rate differences.
  3. Japan's slower growth in comparison to Germany is influenced by changes in population size, with significant implications for economic performance and global influence.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. In November, existing-home sales rose to 4.15 million, marking a 4.8% increase from October. This shows a positive trend in the housing market after a long time.
  2. Median house prices went up by 4.7% compared to last year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive, even as sales are improving.
  3. The total housing inventory declined slightly to 1.33 million units, but it's still higher compared to last year. There's a good amount of homes available, but the sales pace keeps inventory lower than before.

Investing Update: Is The Rally Fading?

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Inflation
  1. The Dow has dropped for seven straight days, which is the longest losing streak since 2020. This downward trend is concerning, especially for December, which is usually a strong month for stocks.
  2. Inflation is still on the rise, moving from 2.60% to 2.75%. Although this is in line with expectations, it indicates that the economy hasn't fully stabilized yet.
  3. Many believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% soon. This move is anticipated as a way to address the ongoing inflation issues and support the market.

November 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economics Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. Inflation has been steadily around 2% since July 2022, excluding housing costs. This shows a consistent trend rather than sudden spikes.
  2. The Federal Reserve has managed to control most types of inflation, but rent prices remain outside of their control. This situation creates a misunderstanding about overall inflation levels.
  3. There's a belief that inflation might change direction suddenly, but the speaker sees no reason for that to happen. The last 29 months have shown stability in most areas.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 308 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Federal Reserve Economic Indicators
  1. The money market faced a tough quarter-end, but there were no serious problems reported. Most banks didn't heavily rely on the Fed's emergency funding options this time.
  2. A new measure called reserve demand elasticity (RDE) suggests that the banks currently have enough reserves. This means the Fed can keep interest rates stable for now.
  3. Funding pressures are growing, but they haven't reached a critical point. This signals that while banks feel some strain, they are managing for the time being.

2023 Annual Report

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 479 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investments Performance Goals Lessons Learned Newsletter
  1. Achieved a return of 34.3% in 2023 compared to 24.1% for the S&P.
  2. Focused on refining the investment strategy, promoting Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) over Growth at Any Price (GAAP), and emphasizing value for long-term market-beating potential.
  3. Learned lessons such as avoiding blind dollar-cost averaging, seeking stocks with low expectations, and collaborating with others to improve quality and results.

The Hidden Bank Panic

The Dollar Endgame • 259 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💰 Finance Banking Economy Regulations Capital Assets
  1. Institutions are requesting the Fed to exclude Treasuries from their leverage ratios post the Bank Term Funding Program, which is causing concern within the financial industry.
  2. Capital requirements in banks are crucial for preventing insolvency, with risk-based and leverage ratios being the two main types of requirements.
  3. Leverage ratios do not consider the risk levels of assets and require banks to maintain a specific ratio of capital to assets, helping ensure financial stability.

Portfolio Optimisation, Luck & Regret, François Rochon, & Running Money for the Long Term

Investment Talk • 687 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investment Portfolio Management Sponsorship
  1. Investment Talk newsletter curates interesting content for over 19,200 investors every two weeks.
  2. AlphaSense offers a 14-day free trial of expert interviews and qualitative insights for analysts and portfolio managers.
  3. Paid subscribers can access exclusive posts and support the Investment Talk newsletter.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Investment Trends Economic outlook
  1. House prices have been rising, with a 3.9% increase over the last year. This trend looks set to continue based on recent data.
  2. The Case-Shiller National Index saw monthly gains for the 20th time in a row, indicating a strong upward movement in home values.
  3. Understanding past trends in the housing market helps predict future changes, which is crucial for buyers and sellers.

Crisis in Shanghai

The Dollar Endgame • 339 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Markets Real Estate Market volatility
  1. Chinese stock markets are collapsing, showing signs of a potential fraud that's causing panic among investors.
  2. The real estate crisis in China is exacerbating the financial turmoil, leading to massive declines in stock market indexes like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component.
  3. Efforts by Chinese regulators to stabilize the markets, such as injecting funds and clamping down on illegal practices, have so far been ineffective in curbing the crisis.

Why ETF fees matter when you choose your Bitcoin ETF

Ecoinometrics • 393 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Bitcoin ETFs Fees Retirement
  1. When choosing a Bitcoin ETF, fees are crucial as they can significantly impact your investment performance over time.
  2. High fees can lead to a significant decrease in net returns, especially in the long run, affecting your overall investment strategy and potential growth.
  3. Investors should consider the impact of fees on their investments, especially for long-term goals like retirement accounts, to optimize performance and maximize returns.