The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Credit Access at Fannie & Freddie

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 11 Nov 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Housing Economics Credit Regulation
  1. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are changing credit score rules, which could help more people access mortgages. This is a positive step, especially for those with lower credit scores.
  2. There's a concern that past events, like the 2008 financial crisis, make people wary of easing lending standards. Many people still express fear about potential risks in the mortgage market.
  3. The current changes to mortgage access are different from the past crisis. Ensuring loans are available to responsible buyers could boost homeownership and help stabilize the housing market.

Private Credit Could Be On Thin Ice

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
💰 Finance Private Credit Credit Markets Asset management Market Liquidity Leverage
  1. Private credit is far more fragile than it’s marketed to be; many funds are highly leveraged and lightly regulated, so they can suffer big losses when conditions change.
  2. Some funds have already taken large markdowns because borrowers and business models that depended on cheap debt are now failing, which translates into real capital destruction for investors.
  3. The easy-money environment masked these weaknesses, and as borrowing costs rise more loans tied to fragile businesses will likely deteriorate, implying broader stress ahead for the private-credit market.

Top Links 752 Phases of economic history/ascendant economic ideologies. China's renewables megabases & how banana bunches are organized.

Chartbook • 600 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💰 Finance Economic History Economics Renewables Data Visualization Global Trade
  1. There are 752 important phases in economic history that show how economies have changed over time.
  2. China is creating large renewable energy projects, which could have a big impact on its energy future.
  3. An interesting way to understand economics is to look at how bananas are organized, showing how we can learn from everyday things.

NASDAQ:ARM is Comically Undervalued

Irrational Analysis • 159 implied HN points • 23 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Semiconductors Technology
  1. Irrational Analysis is heavily invested in the semiconductor industry, giving insights into the comical undervaluation of NASDAQ:ARM.
  2. Nvidia's massive demand for GB200 and Grace CPUs could have significant implications for ARM (LTD)'s value and future performance.
  3. Nvidia Grace CPUs might exceed sell-side expectations, potentially propelling ARM (LTD) value beyond current projections.
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The Great Disconnect

Buggy Humans in a Messy World • 884 implied HN points • 19 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Markets
  1. Learn from the best in your domain by studying their common approaches and applying them to your own journey.
  2. In investing, aligning with the strategies of the greatest of all time can lead to success.
  3. There seems to be a disconnect in how aspiring investors follow strategies compared to successful investors.

Top Links 804 A quadrillion dollar market. The NHS, the UK's national religion, in crisis & development as the "master key".

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 19 Jul 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Global Economy Cryptocurrency Payments Investment
  1. The global cross-border payments market is massive, nearing one quadrillion dollars in value. This shows how much money is moving between countries and how important it is for businesses.
  2. The National Health Service (NHS) in the UK is facing significant challenges, which adds complexity to public health in Britain. Its importance in society makes these issues particularly impactful.
  3. Understanding the evolution of financial markets and systems, including traditional and cryptocurrency payments, is key for grasping modern economic trends. These shifts can change how we think about money and transactions.

Chartbook 348 Dollar-like: eurodollars, crypto and the future of global money.

Chartbook • 1101 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
💰 Finance Global Economics Cryptocurrency Monetary Policy International Trade
  1. Eurodollars are dollars held and used outside the US, which allow businesses around the world to conduct transactions without relying solely on the US banking system. This system grew because companies wanted to avoid US regulations and sanctions.
  2. Stablecoins, like eurodollars, are dollar-linked assets that facilitate transactions, providing a bridge between cryptocurrency and traditional money. They promise to maintain a value equal to the US dollar, similar to how eurodollars work.
  3. The future of stablecoins may involve replacing eurodollars in global finance, but their stability and growth depend on stronger backing systems and regulatory support to avoid issues that have affected both eurodollars and cryptocurrencies.

Good Intentions, Perverse Outcomes: The Impact of Impact Investing

Musings on Markets • 859 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance ESG Social Impact Market Analysis
  1. Impact investing aims to make money while helping society, but it can sometimes backfire. Sometimes the good intentions of investors lead to negative outcomes because their investments fail to create real change.
  2. There are three main methods of impact investing: inclusionary, exclusionary, and evangelist. Each has its strengths and weaknesses, but they all rely on understanding which companies truly contribute positively to society.
  3. Despite the money invested in green energy, our reliance on fossil fuels hasn't significantly decreased. It shows that while impact investing tries to solve societal problems, it might not be working as effectively as intended.

Quick Gold Update: "Nothing Has Changed"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
💰 Finance Precious metals Commodities ETFs Market Analysis Investing
  1. Gold began falling on Thursday and then plunged about 10% on Friday, with mining stocks dropping even more.
  2. Investors braced over the weekend for further losses, but Monday was basically flat — more of a rebalancing day than another crash.
  3. GLD underperformed futures and GDX oddly, yet the big-picture reaction was relief and no substantive change to the gold outlook.

❄️💖 380 ans d'utilité publique. Un coup de cœur.

Snowball • 471 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investment Personal Finance Banking Financial Services
  1. Learn about the Crédit Municipal de Paris, an institution with over 380 years of history providing various financial services.
  2. The Crédit Municipal offers services such as quick loans against valuable items, financial counseling, auctions, and ethical savings options.
  3. The institution aims to innovate and modernize its services, while maintaining a focus on social impact and financial empowerment.

Warsh Or Not, The Fed’s Next Chair Will Inherit Too Much Power

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banking Financial regulation Systemic Risk Government oversight Payment Systems
  1. The Fed has turned crisis tools into permanent powers, like a standing repo facility and huge emergency lending programs, without clear sunset clauses or limits.
  2. Those powers let the Fed act beyond its original mandate — extending credit to borrowers Congress never explicitly authorized and exercising wide regulatory discretion, as seen in decisions around crypto banks.
  3. Weak oversight and accountability (no independent inspector general and only semiannual Congressional checks) invite political pressure and create moral hazard, making firms more dependent on the Fed and eroding its independence and credibility.

Artificial Intelligence: European Union AI Act and its implications for finance

The Fintech Blueprint • 471 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
💰 Finance Regulation Technology Compliance Financial Institutions AI
  1. The European Union AI Act categorizes AI systems into various risk levels and imposes strict regulations to ensure transparency, safety, and non-discrimination in financial services.
  2. Financial institutions using AI for customer data analysis and fraud detection must comply with the EU AI Act by ensuring accurate, unbiased decisions that are explainable to both customers and regulators.
  3. Complex AI systems like Large Language Models (LLMs) pose challenges in transparency and trust, requiring new methods to interpret decision-making and align with the EU regulations.

Top Links 793 Stablecoins and MMF compared. China Investment Corp in retreat. Biology & air-conditioning & not knowing yet wanting-to-know.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Banking Economics Cryptocurrency Market Trends
  1. Stablecoins are similar to money market funds and provide a way to manage digital assets safely.
  2. China Investment Corporation is pulling back from some markets, indicating possible economic shifts.
  3. There is a growing interest in the links between biology and technology, especially in areas like air-conditioning.

Problems at Fly-E Group (FLYE)

The Bear Cave • 326 implied HN points • 13 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Regulation Public Safety Corporate Governance
  1. Fly-E Group may be involved in a scheme in which their stock is being manipulated, risking big losses for investors.
  2. Their e-bikes have been linked to serious safety issues, including deadly fires that have hurt and killed people in New York City.
  3. The company has faced legal problems and safety violations for selling batteries and products that were not properly certified.

The Last Active Manager

Net Interest • 28 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing Hedge Funds Asset management Activism Equities Market structure
  1. A concentrated, long-term owner approach focused on companies with strong barriers to entry and often irreplaceable physical assets produced record returns. He also commits a lot of his own capital and works closely with management to realize value.
  2. Most active managers fail to beat indexes, and the growth of cheap passive investing is changing market structure in ways that make life harder for active funds.
  3. His model looks very different from typical hedge funds—small team, few shorts, and activism as a tool—and shows that selective, patient, high-conviction investing can still outperform.

December 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Inflation Monetary Policy Macroeconomics Construction
  1. The housing market is in a long, slow recovery: construction, rents, and prices are gradually rising and a housing shortage makes a conventional recession hard to trigger.
  2. Measured inflation is roughly at the 2% target once shelter is excluded, but recent CPI gains are mainly driven by rent/shelter and a bit of tariff-driven noise.
  3. Policy and shocks matter: tariffs and looser Fed policy could lift inflation again, but without a major shock or chaotic policy change the slow recovery should keep chugging along as new homebuilding slowly raises capacity.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Inflation Affordability Market Trends
  1. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National and Composite 20 indexes hit new all-time highs in November, just above the prior peak from early 2025.
  2. Adjusted for inflation, national house prices are about 2.4% below their recent peak (and roughly 10.1% above the older bubble peak), while the Composite 20 is about 2.6% below its 2022 peak.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is down about 9.6% from its 2022 high, and rising inventory plus persistent inflation pushed real house prices roughly 1.5% lower through November 2025.

The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?

The Overshoot • 452 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Growth Inflation Forecasting
  1. The U.S. Economy is showing strong growth and may not need rate cuts despite controlled inflation.
  2. Traders anticipate interest rates to decrease, but data suggests a period of faster growth akin to past economic booms.
  3. Initial forecasts of a U.S. recession were proven wrong, with the economy growing over 3% and showing resilience against negative predictions.

Substack And The Rise Of The Degenerate Economist

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 61 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Monetary Policy Commodities Media Economics
  1. Independent publishing platforms are upending financial media by letting direct, high‑conviction voices build audiences and monetize their work, so truth and freedom of speech are winning followers.
  2. Contrarian analysts who backed precious metals and other nonconsensus trades were vindicated, and their accuracy has driven growing readership and revenue for independent writers.
  3. Legacy financial outlets will have to adapt by bringing in independent voices and more balanced, merit‑based commentary or they’ll keep losing viewers while independents gain influence.

Kremer Patent Auctions

Something to Consider • 39 implied HN points • 05 Aug 24
💰 Finance Economics Patents Auctions Healthcare Innovation
  1. Patents are meant to reward inventors, but they can lead to inefficiencies and high drug prices. Finding a balance is important to encourage innovation while ensuring access.
  2. Kremer's idea of patent auctions could help by allowing the government to buy patents, making drugs cheaper and more available to everyone while still fairly compensating inventors.
  3. Collusion among companies can be a concern in patent auctions, but even with this risk, the potential benefits of better research funding could outweigh the drawbacks of higher prices from collusion.

MMTLP: You want it to be one way... But it's the other way.

Keubiko’s Musings • 845 implied HN points • 10 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Regulation Financial Education Corporate Actions
  1. Former owners of MMTLP faced challenges due to its cancellation and distribution of value through NBH shares.
  2. Understanding key dates and settlement processes is crucial in managing investments.
  3. Misconceptions around short selling, market makers, and securities registration led to confusion among MMTLP investors.

GameStopped

The Dollar Endgame • 439 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Market Manipulation Financial Media Regulatory issues
  1. In January 2021, the GameStop ($GME) stock price experienced extreme volatility and a significant price surge, shedding light on underlying issues in the stock market.
  2. The situation revealed how shorting mechanisms were exploited, with the stock being sold significantly beyond its float, and the impact of large institutions and financial media favoring institutional interests over retail investors.
  3. The events with GameStop highlighted the complex interactions between retail investors, short sellers, brokers, and clearinghouses, ultimately leading to regulatory scrutiny and uncovering the reality of market dynamics.

Greenland Exposes The Greenback

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Currency Markets Bonds Stocks Commodities Geopolitics
  1. Forcing a takeover of Greenland would look like overreach and weakness, not strength; seizing territory signals an empire that’s compensating rather than leading.
  2. Aggressive moves would shatter credibility with allies, neutrals, and investors, making the country seem reckless and pushing people toward safer assets like gold.
  3. Loss of reserve status happens quietly through market reactions, so the real indicator is how bond, currency, and gold markets reallocate capital afterward.

Shot Across Howard Lutnick's Bow?

Points And Figures • 399 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Trading Strategies Regulatory issues Investment Analysis Financial Institutions
  1. CME Group is getting ready for a new US Treasury clearing rule by partnering with DTCC to help clients save on margins. This is a big move for them as they prepare for the upcoming changes.
  2. Clients will have choices on where to clear their cash Treasuries based on their needs. Companies are figuring out the best way to combine their trades to save money.
  3. CME has adjusted its strategy because of competition from Cantor-Fitzgerald and its CEO, Howard Lutnick. They aim to provide better options to maintain their position in the market.

What's Art Got to Do with It?

System Change • 491 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation Deflation China Economic Policy
  1. The art market is experiencing deflation as buyers prioritize debt repayment over new purchases.
  2. Debt deflation and low wages worldwide are driving the fall in prices of goods, services, and assets.
  3. China's economy, as the world's second largest, plays a significant role in global deflationary pressures and may require a drastic shift in economic policy to avoid a crash.

❄️ 🐣 Comment investir l'épargne des enfants ?

Snowball • 825 implied HN points • 14 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investment Children Taxation Stocks Personal Finance
  1. Consider investing children's savings in the stock market for long-term growth potential.
  2. Opening a brokerage account in your name to hold ETFs or stocks for your child and then gifting it to them can be a tax-efficient way to invest for their future.
  3. Ensure to handle legal aspects like declaring the donation to the tax authorities and consider equal distribution among multiple children to avoid inheritance disputes.