The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Volatility Divergence

The Last Bear Standing • 22 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investing Risk management Economic Indicators
  1. Implied volatility has been rising even as stock prices remain strong. This means that while investors are confident, they are also anticipating potential future risks.
  2. The current divergence between high volatility expectations and low actual volatility is unusual. It's rare for stock prices to be high while at the same time expecting more volatility.
  3. There are concerns in the market about various factors like corporate earnings and macroeconomic issues. These worries might not be reflected in stock prices right now, but they're still influencing how investors are pricing risk.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Sales Data Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home sales in California jumped by 19.5% compared to last year, signaling a strong recovery even though overall sales remain below pre-COVID levels.
  2. The number of active home listings grew significantly, with inventory up over 20% year-over-year, which may affect house prices in the coming months.
  3. New listings have also increased slightly, but are still at historically low levels, suggesting that supply remains tight in several markets.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Financial Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. It’s important to look at market trends and themes for the upcoming year. This helps in choosing the right stocks to watch.
  2. Last year's stock picks didn't perform as well as the S&P 500, showing that not all investments roped in big gains.
  3. Identifying potential stocks early can provide insight for making better investment decisions in the future.

What immortal hand or eye: The Archegos affair, Part 1.

The Jolly Contrarian • 39 implied HN points • 23 Jul 22
💰 Finance Investment Risk management Regulation Banking Derivatives
  1. Family offices, even though seemingly benign, can engage in risky behavior that can have significant market impacts.
  2. Securities markets are complex environments where probabilistic risk management tools may fail, especially in extreme scenarios.
  3. Regulations requiring banks to pay out variation margins can inadvertently pour petrol on a fire during market volatility, leading to unintended consequences.
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Are housing expenditures stable over time?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
💰 Finance Housing Analysis Trends Ownership
  1. Housing expenditures have not been stable over time, with renters seeing a 25% rise in relative spending over 40 years.
  2. Owner expenses in data are overstated, and assessing true housing costs involves factors like inflation, real returns, and leverage.
  3. Americans are spending more on housing, leading to real compromises and budget constraints, with a net increase in spending despite attempts to cut back on real consumption.

The Sweet Escape

Malt Liquidity • 6 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investing Crypto Economic Theory Wealth Disparity
  1. The value of money is shifting away from productivity, leading to odd situations where attention and hype are becoming more important than real earnings. This change affects how people view investments.
  2. Many markets are becoming increasingly focused on a few popular sectors, creating bubbles that may burst. It seems like only a small number of stocks are generating most of the trading volume.
  3. Technology investments are growing, but if the benefits aren't shared fairly, wealth disparities will worsen. This could lead to societal issues as people's needs aren't being met.

"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Market Dynamics Homeownership Financial impact
  1. Homeowners with low interest rates might be hesitant to sell due to higher mortgage rates, impacting the overall housing market.
  2. Rising mortgage rates create a 'lock-in effect,' reducing the probability of home sales and affecting affordability.
  3. The lock-in effect contributes to limited housing supply, increases home prices, and restricts mobility, but is expected to fade over time.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales trends Mortgage Rates
  1. In November, home sales increased by 5.8% compared to last year, showing a positive trend in the housing market. This is the second year in a row that sales have gone up after a long period of decline.
  2. Active inventory of homes for sale rose by 26% year-over-year, which is good for buyers, but there are still sharp differences based on the region. Areas like Florida and Texas saw significant increases in available homes.
  3. Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in two years, averaging between 6.18% and 6.43% in September and October. However, recent increases in rates, now close to 7%, might slow down future sales.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Sales trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. Existing-home sales have decreased to 4.08 million in January, which is a drop of 4.9% from the previous month, but it's still a 2.0% increase compared to January 2024.
  2. The housing inventory is rising, reaching 1.18 million units, up 16.8% from last year, which shows there is more supply available than before the pandemic.
  3. Despite the drop in sales, this is the fourth consecutive month with year-over-year increases, suggesting some positive trends in the market.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate House Prices Mortgage Rates Rents
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index reported a 5.5% year-over-year increase in house prices in December, with expectations for a slightly more positive change in January.
  2. Monthly, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index experienced an 0.19% increase, marking the eleventh consecutive month of increase, yet the smallest growth since January 2023.
  3. The post discusses the outlook for house prices in 2024 and invites readers to subscribe for more detailed information.

The Keynesian Liquidity Trap Fable

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economics Investment Market Analysis Banking
  1. People often think the economy fails because consumers save too much and spend too little. But saving isn't always bad; it can help strengthen the economy if done right.
  2. When banks lower interest rates to encourage spending, it sometimes backfires. Instead of spending, people might just save more, leading to a 'liquidity trap' where money isn't flowing in the economy.
  3. Expanding the money supply might make it seem like the economy is growing at first, but if savings decline due to previous bad policies, this can actually hurt the economy in the long run.

March 2024 Fed Meeting Preview

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economic Growth Inflation Housing Market
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.

It's Always Darkest Before Dawn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis Portfolio strategy
  1. The Fed can't stop a bear market from happening when stock prices are extremely high. This means that even with their efforts, a market drop could still occur.
  2. Sometimes it's not worth trying to understand why a strategy failed. It's better to acknowledge it and move on rather than clinging to a losing bet.
  3. Hedge fund managers often write letters during tough times, but many don't take responsibility for their mistakes. It's refreshing when someone admits to being wrong without making excuses.

Catch Me If You Can

Net Interest • 15 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Asset management Economic Analysis Global Markets
  1. The US stock market has significantly outperformed Europe over the last 15 years, with US stocks providing much higher returns compared to European stocks.
  2. European companies lag behind in major tech innovation, lacking equivalents to successful US companies like Amazon and Google, which has contributed to their slower growth.
  3. Recently, there has been a shift in sentiment among investors towards Europe, with increased interest and consolidation in the asset management industry, indicating potential for future growth.

Why are homebuilder rate buydowns effective?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Market prices aren't changing due to temporary factors, leading builders to use rate buydowns instead.
  2. Builders are using rate buydowns to close the gap between mortgage rates and other interest rates in the current market.
  3. The unique market conditions make rate buydowns a strategic tool for builders, influencing the mortgage market stability.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 6.2% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Indices Prices Markets
  1. Freddie Mac's National Home Price Index rose 6.2% year-over-year in January, marking a positive trend in the housing market
  2. The index has been climbing consecutively for the past 13 months, showing sustained growth in home prices
  3. Seasonally adjusted data reveals that 16 states and D.C. experienced price declines, with Austin being the worst-performing city

How Elon's Plans for Twitter affect your wallet[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 39 implied HN points • 16 Apr 22
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Entrepreneurship
  1. Understanding the difference between public and private companies is essential, as it affects stock markets and individual salaries.
  2. Equity-based compensation can be a risky but rewarding strategy for startups and employees.
  3. Elon Musk's plan to buy Twitter and take it private highlights the importance of knowing how equity and stock markets work.

New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Data Economic Trends Housing supply Home Sales
  1. In January 2024, new home sales were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year.
  2. The median new home price has dropped by 15% from its peak, indicating potential shifts in the real estate market.
  3. Inventory levels for new homes show variations, with completed homes for sale at a level close to the norm, while homes under construction are high but below previous peak levels.

Gold Surpasses $2900 Per Ounce

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Markets Economic Trends Monetary Policy
  1. Gold prices hit a new record, surpassing $2,900 per ounce, largely due to economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. This has made gold an attractive option for many investors.
  2. Trade tensions between the US and China, along with tariffs on steel and aluminum, have pushed global capital towards gold as a safe investment. Countries like China are also building their gold reserves, which supports higher prices.
  3. Despite rising interest rates normally being bad for gold, the current economic landscape and investor fears about inflation are keeping demand strong. Many people see gold as a way to protect their wealth in uncertain times.

3 Quick Notes Of Perspective On The Market This Week

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Trading Strategies Investment Advice Stock Analysis
  1. The market is behaving unevenly, with different sectors experiencing ups and downs instead of a unified trend. This makes it hard to find clear trading opportunities.
  2. Some big tech stocks, like Microsoft and Tesla, are not performing well right now while others like Apple are doing better. This inconsistency can confuse traders.
  3. It's important to remember that trading carries risks and to get advice from a financial advisor before making any decisions. The opinions shared do not count as professional trading advice.

Market Flow “Starting To Show Cracks”: Sang Lucci

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Trading Strategies Investment Risk Stock Trends Options trading
  1. The market is facing a critical moment, showing signs of weakness in its flow. It's important to pay attention to these signs.
  2. For a long time, the same few popular stocks have been the focus, but there's less new money coming in from big investors. This could be a problem for future growth.
  3. Retail traders have been the main buyers lately, but if their buying decreases, there could be trouble ahead for the market that relies on their activity.

Trump’s Victory Has "Delayed The Fiscal Meltdown Scenario"...For Now

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Monetary Policy Economic Analysis Commodities
  1. The stock market is doing well, but gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also gaining value. This shows that investors are already worried about future inflation.
  2. Gold and Bitcoin are acting as warning signs for money printing and potential economic trouble. They have seen significant growth compared to traditional U.S. Treasury bonds.
  3. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will have to resort to methods like quantitative easing again, which means they could start printing more money to stabilize the economy. This could lead to further increases in the value of sound money assets.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgages Economic Trends Credit Risk
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased slightly in December, indicating more homeowners are struggling to keep up with mortgage payments.
  2. Fannie Mae's delinquency rate rose to 0.56% while Freddie Mac's went up to 0.59%, both of which are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Older loans from before 2009 show higher serious delinquency, whereas more recent loans are performing better, but there are still some lingering issues from past housing bubble years.

Attempting to untangle the messy math behind the "Power Law"

Entry Level Investing • 84 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Startup Financing Valuation Business Models
  1. The concept of the 'Power Law' in venture funding states that a few successful investments drive fund returns, not a normal distribution.
  2. Startup valuations are often based on revenue multiples, deviating from traditional valuation methods like free cash flow analysis.
  3. Overvaluation, excessive spending, and failure to grow into valuations can lead to down rounds, hurting startups and investors.

The Economic Fallout of Student Loan Forbearance Ending

Apricitas Economics • 50 implied HN points • 04 Dec 23
💰 Finance Debt Consumer spending Economic Impact Policy Changes
  1. Restarting student loan payments has led to higher delinquencies and lower consumer spending, despite some relief measures being in place.
  2. The end of student loan forbearance has caused a noticeable but modest impact on the economy as households resume making payments.
  3. Policy changes and billions in student debt forgiveness have eased the burden on borrowers, resulting in a decrease in total outstanding student loan debt.

Picking Stocks Is Hard

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Financial Analysis Economic Trends
  1. Picking stocks is really tough because most of the returns come from a tiny number of stocks. It means many investors, even pros, often lose money.
  2. About two-thirds of stocks don't do as well as the overall market. This makes it harder for investment managers to pick winning stocks.
  3. Over 90% of active fund managers struggle to beat their benchmarks over ten years. It shows just how challenging stock picking really is.

This Ticker is the New Game

Malt Liquidity • 17 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Cryptocurrency Economic Policy Trading Strategies
  1. The value of things is often based on attention rather than real productivity. People might buy trendy items as a bet on their popularity instead of actual worth.
  2. Change can lead to uncertainty, and while it may feel uncomfortable, it can also create opportunities for innovation and improvement.
  3. Social media has shifted how people perceive discussions and opinions, sometimes prioritizing profit over rational thought and leading to unhealthy behaviors in society.

Back to Earth or Temporary Setback? Revisiting the FANGAM Stocks

Musings on Markets • 59 implied HN points • 12 Feb 22
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Valuation Financial Analysis Market Trends
  1. The FANGAM stocks have been key players in the US stock market, but their recent performance has been mixed. Companies like Netflix and Facebook saw big drops, while Amazon and Google surprised with strong results.
  2. Valuations of these companies suggest that Facebook is the most undervalued, as it struggles with its story and user numbers. In contrast, Netflix appears overvalued as it grapples with slowing growth and high content costs.
  3. Companies like Microsoft and Apple managed to stay out of controversies and continued to grow. Microsoft's recent acquisition of Activision shows its ambition, while Apple is benefiting from being seen as a privacy protector.

Let me know if you intend to go to the movies this weekend

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 12 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Sentiment Economic Indicators Behavioral Finance Stock Market
  1. Higher box office revenues often show up when investor sentiment is weakening, and they can act as an early warning of poorer stock market returns.
  2. This may happen because people choose cheaper entertainment like movies when money is tight, or because they look for escapism when they feel gloomy.
  3. The relationship might be spurious and could change as streaming replaces theatre-going, so it’s risky to rely on box office as a reliable signal going forward.

My Interview With We Study Markets

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Personal Finance Financial Education
  1. Holding onto winning stocks for the long run is often the best strategy. Eric learned this after selling Microsoft too early and regrets it.
  2. Investing is about personal choices. Everyone should invest in what makes sense to them, rather than following others blindly.
  3. Celebrating small wins in life can make a big difference. Eric enjoys special breakfasts and dinners to reward himself for his hard work.

Interview: QTR's Take On The Election Results, Macroeconomics & More

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Macroeconomics Media Critique Politics Financial Education
  1. Mainstream media and universities often promote ideas that don't reflect real-world logic. It's important to think critically about what we're being told.
  2. Identity politics can distract from true merit and qualifications in leadership. Focusing on skills and experience is more beneficial for progress.
  3. I prefer to get news from independent sources. This helps me find a wider range of viewpoints and avoid echo chambers.

Re-Funding the Treasury

The Last Bear Standing • 68 implied HN points • 02 Jun 23
💰 Finance Market Liquidity
  1. The U.S. Treasury has financial strategies in place to address debt ceiling concerns and maintain market liquidity.
  2. The Treasury plans to issue new debt to refill its Treasury General Account (TGA) and may impact bank reserves depending on funding sources.
  3. There is caution regarding the effectiveness of the plan as Treasury auctions are not selective, and market liquidity concerns persist despite RRP usage.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales Data Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Local housing markets saw their first year-over-year sales increase since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the real estate industry.
  2. The data includes comparisons to October 2019, showing how current markets stack up against pre-pandemic times.
  3. Over 40 local housing markets across the US are being tracked for this analysis. This gives a broad view of housing trends in different regions.

Banking on Pressure

The Last Bear Standing • 70 implied HN points • 12 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Policy Liquidity Deposits
  1. Both cash liquidity and solvency are crucial for banks. If customers or investors worry about either, they may withdraw funds or sell stock.
  2. Bank liquidity has been fluctuating, impacted by events like the pandemic and quantitative easing/tightening, leading to concerns about insolvency and the need for temporary borrowings.
  3. Deposit fluctuations in banks are tied to the Federal Reserve's actions like quantitative easing and tightening, with large banks experiencing the fastest decline in deposits.